Economic conditions and the popularity of West German parties: a survey

Abstract. The empirical work concerning the relation between economic conditions and the popularity of parties in the Federal Republic of Germany is surveyed. Research in this area started in 1971. During the first ten years (only) traditional econometrics were used. It was shown that the lower unemployment and/or inflation, the higher – ceteris paribus – the popularity of the leading party in government. In the 1980s, using modern time series methods, the validity of the earlier results has been questioned. However, it has been shown that such a relation can also be detected using modern time series techniques. Finally, it is asked whether the observed voting behaviour is consistent with the theory of rational expectations. Using popularity data, the hypothesis of rational expectations can be rejected. Thus, West German voters do not behave rationally in the sense used by Muth.     

Was treibt die Stimmbürger an die Urne? Eine empirische Untersuchung der Abstimmungsbeteiligung in der Schweiz, 1981‐1999

Zunächst werden die theoretischen Überlegungen kurz dargelegt, die zur Entscheidungs‐ bzw. zur Mobilisierungshypothese führen. Zudem wird die Theorie des ‘expressiven Wählens’ vorgestellt, und es wird auf zwei weitere Hypothesen über Bestimmungsgründe der Stimmbeteiligung eingegangen. Danach wird der Schätzansatz beschrieben, bevor wir uns mit den empirischen Ergebnissen beschäftigen. Sie sprechen nicht nur sehr stark für die Mobilisierungs‐ und gegen die Entscheidungshypothese, sondern zumindest bei den fakultativen Referenden spielen auch die erwarteten (bzw. befürchteten) finanziellen Auswirkungen eine entscheidende Rolle. Allerdings sind sie nur bedingt mit der Theorie des expressiven Wählens vereinbar.     

Scotland,NATO, and transatlantic security

This article explores the political and strategic implications of Scottish Independence for existing transatlantic security arrangements. It examines the potential institutional, legal and political obstacles Scotland might face during the transition to independence and discusses the specific challenges in the area of security and defence, including the nuclear issue and the question of what form an independent Scottish Defence Force (SDF) would need to take to allow and facilitate integration in transatlantic security structures. It argues that a number of strategic and political issues could be mitigated in the course of negotiations between Edinburgh and London. Moreover, Scotland's geostrategic position and political orientation make it an important prospective partner in international security cooperation across the Eastern Atlantic, High North and North Sea, which suggests that an advanced partnership with NATO, and eventually full membership, seems like an option that is both politically viable and more likely than any scenario that predicts seeing an independent Scotland (IS) outside these structures. This challenges some of the main strategic and security political arguments against independence and thus seeks to spark a debate about the realistic options for Scotland should it become independent after 2016.     

Municipal debt in Switzerland: new empirical results

Switzerland has experienced extensive institutional reforms at the local level that could influence local debt. These reforms have included municipal mergers, greater inter-communal cooperation, reformed political decision-making mechanisms, and the introduction of new public management measures. Many of these reforms originated at the cantonal level. However, the institutional diversity among Swiss municipalities hardly has diminished. A cross-sectional analysis for the 137 largest Swiss cities and villages in 2004 shows that direct democratic rights and a high degree of fiscal autonomy lead to a lower level of local debt. There is no statistical support for the hypothesis that reforms following the new public management guidelines had an effect on debt levels.     

Making sense of EU comprehensive security towards conceptual and analytical clarity

Abstract

European leaders frequently vaunt the European Union's distinctiveness in adopting and pursuing a comprehensive approach to security. The EU's profile as an international actor is designed to span across all dimensions of security. As a result, its security policy portfolio involves a large number of institutional actors and policies that need to be coordinated. The ambition of the EU to provide security in a comprehensive manner raises challenges at the politico–strategic level, at the level of operational and policy planning and in day-to-day implementation. So far, the field is lacking an inclusive analytical framework for the analysis of providing security through a distinctively comprehensive civil–military, economic and political organisation. This article seeks to close this gap by providing suggestions for how the wide range of issues related to comprehensive security could be structured, and by framing the matter theoretically and with reference to existing conceptual work and empirical research.     

Probabilistic Voting and Equilibrium: An Impossibility Result

The introduction of voters' uncertainty alone is in no way sufficient to guarantee an equilibrium outcome of a voting process. What is needed in addition is the assumption that the voting probabilities depend strictly convex respectively concave of the utility losses caused by the proposed policies of the different parties. This assumption is, however, not compatible with an unrestricted policy space, and it has to be rejected for theoretical as well as empirical reasons. Thus, using models of probabilistic voting we still have to accept that cycles can arise and electoral outcomes are prone to manipulation via agenda setting.