1989-2029年大转型——可以更好或将会更好吗?

本文对中东欧国家自1989年以来发生的后社会主义制度转型进行了理论和现实的阐释,考察了其历史特性,批驳了该地区已经在制度上成为完全成熟的市场经济体的论点,而认为中东欧国家在转型方面还有很长的路要走.文章强调,后社会主义市场转型进程不会呈直线型发展.在现实社会主义经济体的市场改革与后社会主义市场转型之间存在着巨大差异.只有在更加精确地确定目标,同时不是将制度转型当作是自我实现的目标的前提下,不同国家在不同程度上才会取得更好的转型绩效,否则会朝相反方向发展.     

非洲猪瘟CD2v胞外区基因片段的真核表达及其多克隆抗体的制备

本研究利用真核表达系统表达非洲猪瘟病毒的CD2v胞外区蛋白,研究其免疫特性,制备多克隆抗体并研究其性质,为研发特异性单抗奠定数据基础。以非洲猪瘟病毒Wuhan2019-1株(GenBank:MN393476.1)为模板,合成CD2v胞外区基因序列,并将其克隆至真核表达载体pCAGGS载体中,获得pCAGGS-CD2v胞外区重组质粒。经酶切和测序鉴定后,将重组质粒转染293F细胞,获得重组胞外CD2v蛋白(简称His-CD2v)。用Ni-NTA柱纯化His-CD2v,并以此为抗原免疫BALB/c小鼠制备多克隆抗体,利用ELISA和间接免疫荧光对多克隆抗体进行鉴定。结果显示,(1)His-CD2v融合蛋白在293F中以可溶形式表达,SDS结果显示,相对分子质量约为35~80 ku的弥散带;(2)融合表达的His-CD2v能与阳性血清反应,与对照不反应;(3)HisCD2v制备的多抗效价最高达1∶218700,且能与阳性血清竞争性结合CD2v抗原。上述结果表明,His-CD2v融合蛋白的表达及其多抗的成功制备,为进一步筛选CD2v特异性单抗及研制竞争ELISA试剂盒,为非洲猪瘟感染与免疫鉴别方法的建立奠定了坚实的基础。     

Evidential value of injuries useful for reconstruction of the pedestrian-vehicle location at the moment of collision

The paper presents final results of the studies concerning the usefulness of knee, ankle, hip, pelvis and neck injuries in reconstructing the circumstances of car-to-pedestrian accidents. Each type of injuries was evaluated with regard to possible reconstruction of the victim's position (upright or recumbent) at the moment of collision and in the upright hits-the side of the pedestrian's body hit. In each group, a chance of proper reconstruction of the pedestrian's location (which determined the frequency of injury pattern assumed as the typical one of a given position or impact side) and error risk (percentage of cases in which the injury pattern showed improper position or impact side) were calculated. These data were compared with similarly calculated possibilities of deducing based on the classical "bumper" injuries to soft tissues and "bending" fractures of the lower limb bone diaphyses. It was shown that the bone bruises within the knee epiphyses were very specific evidence for upright hits as they confirm the limb load by body mass at the moment of pathological dislocation of joint structures on impact. The evidential value of knee injuries was found to be similar to that of other "classical" methods based on bumper injuries or even higher in lateral and front hits. The injuries to the remaining structures were less frequently found and their correlation with the victim's position or impact side was lower. Nevertheless, once the whole complex of these injuries is taken into consideration the chances of proper reconstruction of the pedestrian-vehicle location increase and the risk of opinion error is minimized.     

Postmortem Analysis of Electrogram Records from an Implantable Cardioverter‐Defibrillator (ICD) in the Reconstruction of a Road Traffic Accident

The case of a 69‐year‐old man, equipped with an ICD and suffering from several chronic cardiac diseases, who died in a car accident, was presented. We analyzed electrogram records from the ICD explanted from the body during the autopsy, which showed that the driver had suffered from malignant ventricular arrhythmia—ventricular fibrillation (VF). A thorough analysis of the details of the accident, as well as the timing of VF and the rhythm observed after the discharge of the ICD showed that the direct cause of the accident was the episode of arrhythmia resulting in a loss of consciousness. Therefore, the presented case illustrates the usefulness of postmortem analysis of electrogram records from ICDs in the reconstruction of road traffic accidents. In such cases, if the victims are implanted with ICDs, it should be a routine procedure performed by forensic pathologists.     

Information‐Theoretical Assessment of the Performance of Likelihood Ratio Computation Methods

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using, for example, Tippett plots. We propose empirical cross‐entropy (ECE) plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to information theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance with both Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criterion to determine whether a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.     

A Two‐Level Model for Evidence Evaluation in the Presence of Zeros*

Abstract: Likelihood ratios (LRs) provide a natural way of computing the value of evidence under competing propositions. We propose LR models for classification and comparison that extend the ideas of Aitken, Zadora, and Lucy and Aitken and Lucy to include consideration of zeros. Instead of substituting zeros by a small value, we view the presence of zeros as informative and model it using Bernoulli distributions. The proposed models are used for evaluation of forensic glass (comparison and classification problem) and paint data (comparison problem). Two hundred and sixty‐four glass samples were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer method and 36 acrylic topcoat paint samples by pyrolysis gas chromatography hyphened with mass spectrometer method. The proposed LR model gave very satisfactory results for the glass comparison problem and for most of the classification tasks for glass. Results of comparison of paints were also highly satisfactory, with only 3.0% false positive answers and 2.8% false negative answers.     

A two-level model for evidence evaluation

A random effects model using two levels of hierarchical nesting has been applied to the calculation of a likelihood ratio as a solution to the problem of comparison between two sets of replicated multivariate continuous observations where it is unknown whether the sets of measurements shared a common origin. Replicate measurements from a population of such measurements allow the calculation of both within-group and between-group variances/covariances. The within-group distribution has been modelled assuming a Normal distribution, and the between-group distribution has been modelled using a kernel density estimation procedure. A graphical method of estimating the dependency structure among the variables has been used to reduce this highly multivariate problem to several problems of lower dimension. The approach was tested using a database comprising measurements of eight major elements from each of four fragments from each of 200 glass objects and found to perform well compared with previous approaches, achieving a 15.2% false-positive rate, and a 5.5% false-negative rate. The modelling was then applied to two examples of casework in which glass found at the scene of the criminal activity has been compared with that found in association with a suspect.     

The influence of ethanol on the level of ketone bodies in hypothermia

Presently available possibilities of macro- and microscopic diagnosis of death from hypothermia are very limited as the changes observed are either weakly specific (ecchymoses in the mucous membrane of the stomach, histological features of haemorrhagic pancreatic necrosis, cardiomyocyte necrosis or decreased content of glycogen in hepatocytes) or represent only local action of low temperatures (frostbites, violet patches in the region of knees and elbows, red livores) and they may not be present in cases of death from cooling at environmental temperature close to zero or higher.The study evaluated the usefulness of acetoacetic acid (Ac-Ac), beta-hydroxybutyric acid (beta-HBA) and acetone determinations in blood, urine and vitreous humour for diagnosis of death from hypothermia. These three substances called ketone bodies, are easily assimilated energetic substrates that get oxidized preferentially before glucose and fatty acids. In hypoglycaemia (also hypothermia-induced one), the tissues dependent on glucose (e.g. the brain) cover most of their energetic needs from oxidation of these compounds.The analysis of 16 cases of death in circumstances suggesting hypothermia (mainly of the alcohol abusers) showed that the degree of ketosis was inversely proportional to the blood ethanol concentration. This relation may result from stimulation of insulin release and a decrease in the release of its antagonists by ethanol, as well as from inhibition of free fatty acid (FFA) beta-oxidation due to increase in the NADH/NAD ratio. So, the antiketonaemic effects of ethanol (together with its influence on the dilatation of the peripheral vessels and inhibition of shivering thermogenesis by muscle relaxation), explain increased sensitivity of intoxicated persons to low temperatures.     

Classification of Glass Fragments Based on Elemental Composition and Refractive Index*

Abstract: The aim of this study was to assess the efficiency of likelihood ratio (LR)‐based measures when they are applied to solving various classification problems for glass objects which are described by elemental composition, and refractive index (RI) values, and compare LR‐based methods to other classification methods such as support vector machines (SVM) and naïve Bayes classifiers (NBC). One hundred and fifty‐three glass objects (23 building windows, 25 bulbs, 32 car windows, 57 containers, and 16 headlamps) were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer. Refractive indices for building and car windows were measured before (RI_b), and after (RI_a) an annealing process. The proposed scheme for glass fragment(s) classification demonstrates some efficiency, although the classification of car windows (c) and building windows (w) must be treated carefully. This is because of their very similar elemental content. However, a combination of elemental content and information on the change in RI during annealing (ΔRI = RI_a?RI_b) gave very promising results. A LR model for the classification of glass fragments into use‐type categories for forensic purposes gives slightly higher misclassification rates than SVM and NBC. However, the observed differences between results obtained by all three approaches were very similar, especially when applied to the car window and building window classification problem. Therefore, the LR model can be recommended because of the ease of interpretation of LR‐based measures of certainty.     

Mixed effects modelling for glass category estimation from glass refractive indices

520 Glass fragments were taken from 105 glass items. Each item was either a container, a window, or glass from an automobile. Each of these three classes of use are defined as glass categories. Refractive indexes were measured both before, and after a programme of re-annealing. Because the refractive index of each fragment could not in itself be observed before and after re-annealing, a model based approach was used to estimate the change in refractive index for each glass category. It was found that less complex estimation methods would be equivalent to the full model, and were subsequently used. The change in refractive index was then used to calculate a measure of the evidential value for each item belonging to each glass category. The distributions of refractive index change were considered for each glass category, and it was found that, possibly due to small samples, members of the normal family would not adequately model the refractive index changes within two of the use types considered here. Two alternative approaches to modelling the change in refractive index were used, one employed more established kernel density estimates, the other a newer approach called log-concave estimation. Either method when applied to the change in refractive index was found to give good estimates of glass category, however, on all performance metrics kernel density estimates were found to be slightly better than log-concave estimates, although the estimates from log-concave estimation prossessed properties which had some qualitative appeal not encapsulated in the selected measures of performance. These results and implications of these two methods of estimating probability densities for glass refractive indexes are discussed.