Does foreign aid distort incentives and hurt growth? Theory and evidence from 75 aid-recipient countries

Foreign aid transfers can distort individual incentives, and hence hurt growth, by encouraging rent seeking as opposed to productive activities. We construct a model of a growing small open economy that distinguishes two effects from foreign transfers: (i) a direct positive effect, as higher transfers allow the financing of infrastructure; (ii) an indirect negative effect, as higher transfers induce rent-seeking competition by self-interested individuals. In this framework, the growth impact of aid is examined jointly with the determination of rent-seeking behavior. We test the main predictions of the model for a cross-section of 75 aid-recipient countries. There is evidence that aid has a direct positive effect on growth, which is however significantly mitigated by the adverse indirect effects of associated rent-seeking activities. This is especially the case in recipient countries with relatively large public sectors.     

Does public sector efficiency matter? Revisiting the relation between fiscal size and economic growth in a world sample

This paper revisits the relationship between fiscal size and economic growth. Our work differs from the empirical growth literature because this relationship depends explicitly on the efficiency of the public sector. We use a sample of 64 countries, both developed and developing, in four five-year time periods between 1980 and 2000. Building on the work of Afonso et al. (Public Choice 123:321–347, 2005), we construct a measure of public sector efficiency in each country and each time period by calculating an output-to-input ratio. In addition, we get an estimate of technical efficiency of public spending for 52 countries from 1995 to 2000 by employing a stochastic frontier analysis. Using these two measures, we find evidence of a non-monotonic relation between fiscal size and economic growth that depends critically on the size-efficiency mix.     

Interaction of human and physical capital in a model of endogenous growth

A model of development is presented where growth is initially driven by physical capital accumulation, as in the neoclassical model. After a critical level of physical capital is reached, the economy ‘takes off’ and enters a stage of sustained growth driven by human capital accumulation. The link between these two stages is provided by the assumption that private incentives for human capital accumulation increase with the average levels of human and physical capital. At the early stages of development, these incentives are low so the level of human capital stays stagnant until sufficient physical capital is accumulated. Other results are that some economies may reach a steady state of physical capital before a ‘take-off’ is possible. This is especially likely for economies in which agents have low savings propensities. Such economies remain stuck in a no-growth equilibrium forever. Economies that do grow may experience endogenous cycles if the return to investment in human capital is sufficiently increasing in the level of physical capital.     

The growth effects of fiscal policy in Greece 1960–2000

This empirical paper uses annual data for Greece 1960–2000 to study the link between fiscal policy and economic growth. Our regression analysis implies that, although a smaller public sector can be good for growth, it is necessary to look beyond size; the composition and quality/efficiency of the public sector are equally important. The policy lesson is that a smaller government share in GDP, a reallocation of funds away from the wage bill to public investment, and an improvement in government quality/efficiency can become engines of long-term growth.