The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty in Jeopardy? Internal Divisions and the Impact of World Politics

The frustration of non-nuclear weapon states about the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament has reached boiling point: a vast majority of them have supported a resolution in the UN General Assembly that establishes a negotiation forum for concluding a prohibition of nuclear weapons in 2017. Rising tension among the nuclear powers and populist movements feeding nationalist emotions make it unlikely that the situation will change for the better in the near future. It is thus possible that the NPT might be eroded or, in the worst case scenario, simply collapse because of diminishing support.     

THE AMERICAN RESPONSE TO PAKISTANI AND IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION: A STUDY IN PARADOX

This article explores the paradox in the reaction of the United States to the two different proliferation cases: Pakistan's proliferation and Iran's weaponization effort. The article tries to find answer to the following key question; why the United States, as one of the guardians of the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) which would prefer to see a region that is entirely free of weapons of mass destruction, ultimately has accepted Pakistan's proliferation, while imposed considerable amount of pressure to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

The paper posits that number of factors explain such differences; first, and at the theoretical level, Pakistan was never considered an “irrational” and “messianic” state like Iran, but regarded as a country with a certain degree of cold-war type nuclear rationality. Second and at the applied level, while Pakistan was a US ally with not having a history of challenging the United States, Iran has been considered enemy and a threat toward the US interest.

Third, while Pakistan's nuclear arsenal was viewed as a defensive mean against overwhelming strength of India, Iran's possible nuclear arsenal considered to be for offensive uses against the United States and Israel. The fourth factor pertains to the consequences of proliferation, which is what happens when Iran's neighboring countries may feel threatened by Iranian nuclear weapon and proceed to develop their own arsenal. Fifth factor deals with the possible Iran's temptation to give some nuclear material to a terror group in which made the United States serious in preventing Iran's weaponization. Last but not least, Israel was not involved to pressure and agitate against Pakistan, while it was applied a tremendous pressure against Iran to prevent it from achieving nuclear weapons.     

从朝鲜二度核试验透视《不扩散核武器条约》的缺陷

继2006年10月9日朝鲜宣布进行了首次核试验后,2009年5月25日,朝鲜突然宣布"成功进行第二次核试验",不计后果地挑战国际社会。朝核危机彰显了《不扩散核武器条约》的不足。虽然该条约在实现全面彻底核裁军、维护世界和平与安全的国际法制进程中具有划时代的意义,但条约也存在某些概念模糊不清、对非核武器缔约国的歧视、退出条款限制不够、国际原子能机构的核查权限等问题。要真正实现全面彻底防核扩散的目标,国际社会需要努力地对条约做出合理的修订和完善,倡导以条约为基础的多边合作。     

析《不扩散核武器条约》

1968年1月，英国、美国和苏联等59个国家签署了《不扩散核武器条约》，并于1970年3月正式生效。国际核不扩散体制主要以《不扩散核武器条约》为基石。虽然该条约只有11个条文，但是它在实现全面彻底核裁军、维护世界和平与安全的国际法制进程中具有划时代的意义。同时条约也存在某些概念模糊不清、对非核武器缔约国的歧视、退出条款限制不够、国际原子能机构的核查权限等问题。要真正实现全面彻底防核扩散的目标，国际社会需要努力地对条约作出合理的修订和完善，倡导以条约为基础的多边合作。     

Multilateral Nuclear Disarmament

Although the political salience of nuclear disarmament has fallen dramatically since the end of the Cold War, the threat posed by nuclear weapons today remains at least as great as it was before 1989. The growing number of states either armed with or actively developing nuclear weapons programmes has placed existing control and monitoring frameworks under strain. In this article, Baroness Williams, a long time campaigner for multilateral nuclear disarmament, discusses the nature of today's nuclear threat and particularly the political challenge presented by states whose behaviour is not predictable. If further proliferation is to be prevented, the international community must renew its efforts at implementing a robust regime of control. The IAEA must be given the authority and the resources necessary to conduct inspections anywhere in the world without prior warning. At the same time, the world's nuclear states powers must begin genuine efforts at disarmament.     

美国实战威慑核战略：理论、历史与现实

以《不扩散核武器条约》为基础的国际防扩散制度已经走过了半个世纪,如今却面临日益严峻的挑战。对于全球防扩散与核裁军进程出现的倒退,美国负有特殊的责任。这突出表现在三个相互关联的理论、历史和现实问题上。首先,经典核威慑理论并不能充分解释美国矛盾的核战略和防扩散政策。以实战威慑和延伸威慑构成的绝对自由核战略才是长期指导美国核政策实践的根本。其次,通过对20世纪50～60年代的冷战史进行再挖掘可以得知,一般认为的美国核战略在主张核武器用于实战的保守派和主张核武器仅用于威慑的自由派之间摇摆,实际上夸大了自由派对美国核战略的影响。美国在大多数总统任期内将绝对自由核战略作为拱卫其构建战后国际秩序和获得对苏联战略优势的关键。最后,核武器与非核武器的互动是当前核时代的一个显著特征。随着新技术革命的兴起,传统的核威慑和战略稳定正面临极为复杂的挑战。然而,美国依旧以核常融合、攻防兼备构筑绝对优势,并以新兴技术、跨域威慑确保全面制胜。其结果持续引发由核武器与常规武器互动、谋求技术先发优势以及追求绝对自由所导致的"三元悖论",从而对全球战略稳定和国际防扩散制度产生进一步冲击。     

The rise and fall of Spain's ‘nuclear exceptionalism’

The present article looks at the evolution of Spanish views on deterrence and non-proliferation. Like every member state of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), Spain is covered by the US nuclear umbrella and has accepted the logic of deterrence, while at the same time maintaining a denuclearised status and committing to the goal of disarmament enshrined in the non-proliferation treaty. This article explores the background of Spain's apparently contradictory situation as a denuclearised member of NATO and how it positions itself in regard to the nuclear question in the current security context. It concludes that while Spanish nuclear ‘exceptionalism’ originally rested on the reluctance of the political elites to alter the precarious compromise that once allowed for Spain's accession to NATO as a denuclearised member, it gradually withered away to give way to a close alignment with Alliance policies driven by a desire to preserve strong security links with its partners.