Predicting Revolt: Fragility Indexes and the Level of Violence and Instability in the Arab Spring

This article is one of the first to systematically assess the ability of state fragility measures to predict violent protests and adverse regime changes in countries. We focus on the Arab Spring as an example of a situation that such measures ought to predict. Through a variety of analyses, we find that none of the measures are predictive. We then create a simple model using the literature of protest and revolts to predict both the level of violence and the extent of regime change in the Arab Spring countries. This simpler model does a better job of predicting the level of involvement in the Arab Spring than any of the complex State Fragility Indexes. Thus, the goal of this article is not to explain the causes of the Arab Spring, but to add to the discussion of the predictive value of measures of instability.     

Building foundations for the comparative study of state and non-state terrorism

In this article, we argue that a comparative study of state and non-state terrorism that uses the minimal foundationalist definition of terrorism as its central analytical framework offers a unique and instructive approach for answering the question: “what is terrorism?” To date, most recent comparative case study analyses of terrorism focus on ideologies, political/governance models, structural/contextual enablers, practices, organisational structures, and/or the basis of issues such as trust, belonging, and membership. We uniquely contribute to the growing literature on comparative terrorism studies by comparing and contrasting state and non-state terrorism on the basis of strategic communication vis-à-vis the preparation, execution, and outcomes of political violence (the “terrorism attack cycle”), the instrumentalisation of victims, and fear management. We argue that state and non-state terrorism are co-constituting and co-enabling phenomena, possibly best conceptualised as two bounded and coiled strands of the political violence DNA.     

坚持维护主权,建立多极化世界的国际政治经济新秩序──兼论我国三代国家领导人国际关系观

当今世界有诸多的世界论──单极、三极、五极,无论前述任何一种,都没有完全代表世界绝大多数国家和人民的利益。在维护国家主权、尊重各国权利基础上,应建立多极化世界的国际政治经济新秩序。建立多极化世界的国际政治经济新秩序最重要的有两项原则、三大政策和三项措施。两项原则是：尊重各国主权的原则;不干涉别国内政的原则。三大政策是：奉行独立自主的和平外交政策;奉行国际法准则;奉行民族自决原则。三项措施为：联合世界各种力量,反对霸权主义和强权政治;摒弃旧的国际政治经济秩序,确立平等、公正、合理的国际政治经济新秩序;依靠联合国的力量,推动世界格局向多极化转换。     

自然资源统一确权登记改革的立法纾困

自然资源统一确权登记是通过重识各具体资源要素间的生态功能关联而展开的空间维度的整体性登记,其蕴含了使登记客体呈现生态性革新和空间性扩张的新趋势。确权登记改革对以保障交易安全为主线的传统物权登记功能定位形成动摇,并进一步冲击了取向于自然资源财产属性的"物的区隔化经济利用"的物权客体特定性规则。对此,有必要回应自然生态空间这一独立登记单元的程序性设置对自然资源国家所有权客体形态所产生的实体性回射影响。一方面,应确认登记功能主义对登记客体的革新效果,从公示物权秩序扩至实现生态管护,登记治理效能的扩充使其呈现空间治理的新向度;另一方面,应在引入"生态物"的物权客体判定标准的基础上,对自然资源国家所有权在客体形态和权能构造方面进行"绿化"解释。以此为依托,释明支撑自然资源统一确权登记改革的"空间治理"和"生态文明"双线逻辑。     

Chinese Political Studies: Overview of the State of the Field

The range of questions of interest to scholars of Chinese politics has changed slowly over recent decades, but the depth of empirical probes to answer them has quickly improved. One reason is the rise of China-born and Chinese-American researchers. Another is greater access to local information in China after the start of reforms there. Future developments in this field are likely to enrich current American political science, which will require fresh methods for adequate study of the planet's most populous polity.     

国家赔偿审判亟待程序规范——人民法院应当成立国家赔偿审判庭

《国家赔偿法》在赔偿程序和机构设置上的规定存在严重缺陷。人民法院应当设立国家赔偿审判庭,适用诉讼程序解决国家赔偿案件,现在相关条件已经成熟。     

侦查讯问中犯罪嫌疑人陈述自愿的制度保障

犯罪嫌疑人陈述自愿的保障,是正当讯问制度的核心内容。目前侦查讯问与犯罪嫌疑人陈述自愿存在种种现实冲突,应通过赋予犯罪嫌疑人沉默权,律师在权。限制讯问结果的运用,录音、录像监控,增强相应机关的独立性,以及完善坦白从宽抗拒从严政策等,解决犯罪嫌疑人陈述自愿的制度保障问题。     

试论实现给付行政任务的公私协力行为

行政法中公私协力问题在德国、日本以及我国台湾地区等地都有相当大的发展和相当精深的研究。当前公私协力行为在我国大陆行政实践中也广泛存在,然而我国大陆行政法学者的关注却很不够,理论研究严重滞后于现实发展的需要。从实现给付行政的国家任务入手,可以从宏观上把握公私协力所处的时代背景和所秉持的行政法理念。公私协力中的行为形式选择既是重要的理论问题,也是实践中无法回避的问题。公私协力行为也对传统行政法学构成巨大的挑战,理应获得足够的重视。     

论国家与社会的二元分立是我国宪政的基础

国家与社会,公共领域与私人领域的分立为政府权力的行使划定不可逾越的界限,构成限制政府权力和保障公民权利的宪政本质。社会主义市场经济体制的确立冲破了几千年来我国“强国家、弱社会的”格局,造成国家和社会的二元分立,为我们进行政治制度的创新,建立宪政民主奠定了坚实的基础。     

马克思政治哲学理论的内在张力

在对马克思政治哲学理论的研究中常常存在着以下的倾向,即片面地发挥马克思的某些观点,从而忽略了其理论的整体性.本文主张,要完整、准确地理解马克思的政治哲学理论就必须在这一理论内部的不同思想酵素之间建立必要的张力.