核恐怖主义与奥巴马政府核战略

基于国际核安全环境的变化和对核恐怖主义威胁的认知,同时为了提升美国在核军控领域的制度和话语霸权,也为了干涉其他国家内政、服务其全球和地区战略,奥巴马政府大大提升了反核恐怖主义政策在美国核战略中的地位。鉴于这一政策为美国在核军控领域制度和话语霸权服务的狭隘性质,它不可避免地存在以下缺陷:反核恐怖主义政策因果关系颠倒;反核恐怖主义政策的目标指向存在一定失误;美国核政策自身存在矛盾。正是由于存在着上述缺陷,决定了奥巴马政府反核恐怖主义政策必然会对国际反核恐怖主义努力产生双重影响。     

试析美国核不扩散政策与地区安全

美国核不扩散政策对地区安全有着重要影响.美国核不扩散政策导致了伊朗核问题等地区性核问题的再次升温,加剧了地区紧张局势.美国在反核扩散过程中追求建立"核常结合、攻防兼备"的全面军事和战略优势的企图不利于大国在反核扩散过程中的相互合作和战略互信.美国把反核扩散重点指向"无赖国家",有可能使恐怖主义渔翁得利,以及促进地区核竞赛.美国唯有回到包容政策立场并和伊朗等国进行严肃谈判,目前的地区核危机才可能得到解决.朝核问题开始走向外交解决之路就是一个有力证明.     

“单边”到“多边”——布什政府对奥巴马政府对朝政策的影响

美国布什政府对朝政策有其产生的根源和国内外的制约因素,形成了"单边"到"多边"的对朝政策转变过程并表现出特有的规律。对此认真分析和研究,有助于我们对布什政府的"单边"到"多边"的对朝政策进行整体和宏观把握,厘清布什政府对奥巴马政府对朝政策的影响。     

奥巴马政府推动美古关系正常化的动因、政策及前景

奥巴马政府积极推动美古关系正常化的主要动因是,通过改善美古关系恢复美国在西半球的领导地位,进而推进"维持美国在全球的领导地位"这一战略目标。奥巴马政府的对古政策得益于古巴裔美国人在美古关系问题上的立场分化,顺应了美国国内的主流民意。为启动美古关系正常化进程,奥巴马政府采取了一系列新的对古政策和外交举措,直至美国与古巴正式恢复外交关系。然而,美古关系要实现全面正常化,还面临诸多障碍:美国尚未解除对古巴的经济制裁;美古两国相互没收的资产尚未归还对方;美国仍然占据古巴的关塔那摩湾;古巴移民问题和美国关注的古巴民主与人权问题依然存在。短时期内,克服这些障碍的前景不容乐观。     

奥巴马政府的对朝政策研究

通过从政策内容、背景及成效三个方面对奥巴马政府对朝政策的研究成果进行梳理,文章发现,当前学界对这一问题的研究存在三个方面的不足:一是"战略忍耐"不足以概括奥巴马政府对朝政策的全部内容;二是对奥巴马政府制定对朝政策的原因解释仍停留在美朝双边层面;三是对奥巴马政府的朝鲜政策对中国造成的影响缺乏系统研究。为弥补上述不足,文章在政策内容的界定方面构建了"四位一体"框架,即从多边层面、同盟层面、美中层面以及单边层面概括了奥巴马政府对朝政策的主要内容;在政策制定的原因解释方面,文章引入了政策环境因素,通过探讨朝鲜半岛和东北亚区域环境出现的新变化,以期更全面地解释奥巴马政府对朝政策的成因;在政策成效方面,对奥巴马政府的朝鲜政策对中国造成的影响做出了判断。最后,文章总结了奥巴马政府对朝政策与前任政府存在的区别,并对其剩余任期的对朝政策走向做出了大致预测。     

奥巴马政府的台海政策及其影响

奥巴马政府基本继承了小布什政府后期的台海政策,同时采取了一些新的做法。当前美国全球战略需要稳定的中美关系,奥巴马政府积极看待两岸关系和平发展,但更强调稳定化。奥巴马政府支持台湾扩大国际空间,将继续对台军售政策,赞成两岸签署经济合作框架协议,加深、扩大美台之间的经济联系。奥巴马政府台海政策的制定受到多种复杂因素的影响,其中包括美国国内战略辩论、国会、军方和军工集团、美国对两岸关系和台湾岛内局势的评估等。     

美国亚太再平衡战略“失速”了吗?

<正>2013年10月,奥巴马因预算和债务上限危机取消其亚洲之行,不少分析人士认为这是美国亚太再平衡政策"失速"的集中表现,日本等国舆论还出现奥巴马政府开始"轻视亚洲"的论调。1的确,相对其第一任期时而言,美国亚太政策在奥巴马政府第二任期的首个年头显露一定程度的"疲态",但奥巴马政府落实其亚太再平衡战略的"深耕细作"不可忽视,美国针对中国周边外交新战略有反弹和反制的可能性,美国加大对亚太地区政策资源投入、重塑和巩固其对地区事务主导权的决心和韧劲不应     

美国犹太组织与奥巴马政府对伊朗的政策

美国犹太组织是影响美国中东政策的重要因素。由于认定伊朗发展核武器对以色列的安全构成威胁,以及担忧奥巴马政府改变对伊朗的政策,因此美国犹太组织在国会内外开展游说,促请国会议员提出制裁伊朗的法案。尽管奥巴马阐明美国对伊朗奉行的是原则性接触政策,但不得不在国会的强大压力下签署了《伊朗制裁、问责、撤资综合法》。这一法律的出台结束了奥巴马政府接触伊朗的尝试,制裁和遏制再度成为美国对伊政策的主流。     

奥巴马政府的二十国集团战略评析

源起于美国的金融危机对于美国政府的内外政策产生了重要影响,推动经济尽快复苏成为奥巴马政府的优先议程。承认二十国集团在世界经济和国际社会的重要地位,与二十国集团合作,是美国化解其金融危机和确保经济复苏的关键战略措施之一。奥巴马政府的二十国集团战略有多重动因,最终目的是利用这一新兴的全球治理平台,维护其在国际金融领域的主导地位,进而维持其在全球的霸权地位。     

新思想库与奥巴马政府的亚洲政策决策——以新美国安全研究中心为例

在美国对外政策决策体系中,思想库在政策理念创新、人才储备、打造政策辩论平台以及教育和引导公众等方面具有非凡的作用。新近兴起的新美国安全研究中心对奥巴马政府的对外政策影响巨大。该中心的亚洲政策研究强调务实的态度,注重美国对亚洲事务的重新"参与",倡导强化和升级美国在亚洲的联盟关系,推动美国积极介入地区多边制度,其政策建议通过"旋转门制度"等对当前美国的亚洲政策决策产生了深刻影响。     

Counterproliferation Bargaining with the United States: China and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

This article analyzes China’s use of issue-linkage strategies in its approach to nuclear proliferation. It highlights that China has used its ties to nuclear proliferators as a bargaining chip vis-a-vis the United States. The United States is dependent on Chinese cooperation to secure nonproliferation objectives such as a non-nuclear Iran, and China has used this dependency to extract side-payments for its cooperation. Moreover, Beijing has used non-cooperation on nuclear proliferation as retaliation when the US has hurt its interests in unrelated policy areas, such as through arms sales to Taiwan. In contrast with past studies, the article claims that China’s approach to nonproliferation remains partly transactional to this day.     

IIPS initiative regarding the nuclear tests by India and Pakistan

In June, after the nuclear tests by India and Pakistan had shocked the world, IIPS Chairman, former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone, proposed to German Chancellor Helmut Kohl that research institutes in both countries (later widened to include the US) join in a project aimed at influencing the governments of the world to make real progress toward nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. Ryukichi Imai, member of the Tokyo Forum for Nuclear Non‐Proliferation and Disarmament and Distinguished Research Fellow at IIPS, outlines what the project hopes to achieve.     

The US-India Nuclear Pact: Policy,Process, and Great Power Politics

Abstract

This article examines the process through which India and the United States made their bilateral civilian nuclear energy cooperation pact a reality. Using the levels of analysis approach, this article examines the factors that were instrumental in shaping up the nuclear agreement as well as the negotiating process as it evolved in the United States and India with a special focus on how political leaderships in the two states managed domestic opposition to the pact. Subsequently, this article locates the US-India nuclear agreement in the context of the broader theoretical debate in international relations over the role of international institutions in global politics and argues that the successful conclusion of the agreement highlights the importance of strategic considerations in driving the nonproliferation priorities of great powers.     

The future of the international nonproliferation regime

The nuclear nonproliferation regime should be strengthened in order to meet the needs of an unstable international security environment, says Hiroyoshi Kurihara, Senior Executive Director of the Nuclear Material Control Center in Tokyo. He proposes that Japan can contribute more actively to strengthening nonproliferation efforts by considering the establishment of a regional confidence building mechanism to monitor peaceful nuclear activities in the Northeast Asian region. The establishment of such a mechanism is vital, he says, if the nations of the region are to develop confidence in each other such that war, and particularly nuclear war, between them will become impossible.     

From Ambivalence to Influence: Australia and the Negotiation of the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

In early 1967 it appeared that the Eighteen Nation Disarmament Committee in Geneva would successfully negotiate a multilateral treaty to curb global proliferation of nuclear weapons. This triggered an urgent review by the Australian Government of its policies on the civil and military applications of nuclear technology. The need to build a coherent response to a US expectation that its Pacific ally would sign the prospective Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty imposed discipline upon a hitherto ad hoc approach to nuclear policy development. Those in the new Gorton Government and the nuclear science bureaucracy who advocated the embrace of nuclear technology—in both its civil and military applications—fought, and ultimately lost, a battle against proponents of the NPT. The resolution of the struggle for supremacy within elements of the policy community impelled the Government to demand and receive concessions from the USA. Originally silent on how the NPT might be interpreted and operationalised in order to maximise support, the US now shared its views with the members of the Western Alliance. US willingness to compromise with Australia in this way exceeded what its Pacific ally had cause to expect and illustrates that middle powers can wield influence on a global scale when circumstances permit.     

A Conceptual Analysis of the Six-Party Talks: Building Peace through Security Assurances

Abstract

Dissuading proliferators from developing nuclear weapons entails application of the global nonproliferation norm. Insomuch as proliferators' motivations to develop nuclear weapons are embedded in regional security concerns, security assurances taken for nuclear disarmament would include measures addressing these regional security concerns. Such measures are compatible with the need not to motivate other proliferators to develop nuclear weapons. The September 2005 Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks incorporated a pledge to build a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, which demonstrated the link between the regional undertakings and North Korea's denuclearization process. North Korea's nuclear test is no doubt a deviation from the document and the international community must retain collective sanctions. However, building a peace regime remains an effective means for defusing the nuclear standoff.     

Constructive Partner or Menacing Threat? Analyzing China's Role in the Iranian Nuclear Program

Abstract

This article examines contrasting paradigms of China's foreign policy in the context of China's role in the Iranian nuclear program. In contrast to revisionist and status quo paradigms, which view China as either a menacing threat or a constructive partner of the United States, this article advances a reformist paradigm that presents China as neither a follower nor an opponent of US policies. Rather, the reformist paradigm suggests that although China has placed a premium on its relations with Washington, it has also pursued stealthily obstructive policies in Iran that have enabled it to garner substantial narrow gains at the expense of compromising the US agenda in the region. The author calls this grand strategy opportunistic pragmatism.     

Nuclear proliferation: Is the Middle East next?

The nuclear tests carried out by India and Pakistan in May 1998 have had monumental ramifications for the international community, says Nabil Fahmy, Ambassador of Egypt to Japan. The tests have forced the world to realize that a static nuclear nonproliferation regime cannot survive the test of time, but must be regularly consolidated and built upon by all. In the context of the Middle East, Fahmy emphasizes the need to maintain parity in security issues, and the threat of nuclear proliferation in the region in the wake of the tests. How the international community responds to these tests will be a crucial factor in determining the sequence of events that will follow in the Middle East. If they do not provide impetus for global and regional disarmament, then the risk exists that countries in the region will be tempted, or even compelled, to explore the possibility of going nuclear.     

The Yellow Cake Road: Malcolm Fraser,the Ranger Enquiry and Australia's Role in the US International Fuel Cycle Project

The 1975–1983 Fraser Government failed to develop an enrichment industry in Australia but did see the initiation of uranium sales following the adoption of the Ranger Enquiry. Both of these developments were shaped by US nuclear commercial and non‐proliferation policies during the Ford and Carter Administrations, which aimed to restrict the spread of enrichment technology. Fraser would come to realise that it was not a question of private ownership of the nuclear fuel cycle, but of accepting a role for Australia in the international fuel cycle as a supplier of cheap yellowcake.     

Economic Interdependence and Security on the Korean Peninsula: The Impact of North Korean Special Economic Zones

Abstract

Given North Korea’s desire to maintain nuclear weapons—and barring its unexpected collapse—how can the US and its allies establish and maintain a peaceful Northeast Asia? Current US policy alternatives do not offer an effective means for removing North Korean nuclear weapons without creating many more serious problems that jeopardize a stable future for Northeast Asia. However, by engaging in foreign direct investment (FDI) through North Korea’s special economic zones, the United States and other nations can engage North Koreans at all levels of society and build a future environment of cooperation and stability. Such a long-term engagement policy will prove more successful than isolation, sanctions, or military force, and will bolster regional actors’ efforts to develop additional stability-inducing policies.