基于模糊影响因素的台湾人口死亡率估计

本文基于1981--2010年台湾人口死亡率数据,对人口死亡率估计模型进行深层次分析。研究发现：（1）1—100岁之间各年龄组别中心死亡率与时间因素存在显著负相关;45岁以后,时间对各年龄组别中心死亡率的影响程度形成“矿’字型。（2）不同年龄组和不同时间段之间过渡时所呈现的“亦此亦彼”性,即模糊性,对死亡率的影响在现有的死亡率估计模型中常被忽视。（3）死亡率的不确定性主要源自模糊不确定性,本文构建的死亡率模糊模型可以提高死亡率估计精度。     

中国企业职工养老保险制度转变前后性别利益的比较分析

2005年《国务院关于完善企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》(简称《完善》)与1997年《国务院关于建立统一的企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》(简称《统一》)比较,"统筹账户"和"个人账户"的筹资比例以及养老金支付办法发生了变化.本文主要分析这两项变化对女性养老金利益("养老金月收入"和"养老金收益率")以及男女两性养老金差距所发生的影响("月收入均值"、"总收入"和"养老金替代率").通过计算,我们发现,从《统一》到《完善》的转变,一方面使男女两性养老金利益都有所改善;另一方面,由于男性的改善速度高于女性,因此男女两性养老金差距有所扩大.     

康奈尔和她的社会性别理论评述

康奈尔的社会性别研究由女性主义开始,集中在男性气概的研究领域。她认为女性气质和男性气概都是在社会性别秩序三重关系下建构起来的。作为当前世界上最著名的男性研究专家,她认为男性气概是在实践中建构的,它可以分为支配型、从属型、边缘型、共谋型四种类型。康奈尔还从全球化、地理差异、男性气概的危机趋势等方面对社会性别的研究做出了重要贡献。     

社会建构论视角的心理学方法论问题探索

心理学方法论的扩展,关涉到心理科学的发展方向、科学观、理论和方法论的建构。社会建构论立场的心理学方法论将心理视为语言的社会建构,语言的建构使心理学从实证主义范式向建构主义范式转换、个体主义向集体主义转换、价值无涉向价值涉入转换、主客二分思维向主客超越转换。对心理学研究对象的解构与重构,也使社会建构论立场的心理学有可能消解科学主义心理学和人文主义心理学的矛盾和对立。     

Protective Factors Interrupting the Continuity From School Bullying to Later Internalizing and Externalizing Problems: A Systematic Review of Prospective Longitudinal Studies

A systematic review is presented, based on prospective longitudinal studies, on protective factors that interrupt the continuity from bullying perpetration at school to externalizing problem behaviors later in life; and from bullying victimization to later internalizing problems. Some common factors were established, which seem to interrupt the continuity from school bullying perpetration and victimization to later maladjustment problems. These included having a good performance at school and good social skills, coming from a stable (undisrupted) family, being attached to parents, and having prosocial friends. Findings are consistent with the wider resilience literature on factors that confer emotional and behavioral adjustment to school youth. This is not surprising given the interconnectedness and common pathways between bullying and other risk behaviors. Effective antibullying and other multicomponent programs may successfully interrupt this long-term continuity. Future intervention research should be informed by the resilience literature and incorporate existing findings in future program planning.     

中国乡村研究的现状评述和趋向分析

该文主要说明了乡村研究的内容性质、活动状况、以及趋向可能。从现状来讲，乡村研究正在把农村的现代化发展作为一个自为的文明形态来对待，而不是仅仅从对象性角度来寻求所谓“三农”问题的解决。通过对15年来各种实证调研的关注方面和运作方式的综述分析可以看出，乡村研究日益体现为从学术探讨和工作建议相结合的角度对某种文明形态建设的参与。乡村研究的发展趋向至少包括三个方面的可能，即继续保持学术研究和实际工作紧密结合的特点、对农村现代化建设的参与方式和途径更加多样化、乡村研究作为某种专门学科的逐步形成。     

养老金制度中的社会性别倾向

尽管国内理论界已有大量研究成果分析劳动力市场的男女分工及性别平等,但对由此而引发的养老金制度中的社会性别倾向少有涉及。实际上,多数国家的养老金制度都存在退休年龄、待遇水平乃至权利享有等多方面的性别差异。本文拟在回顾相关文献的基础上,从理论角度定义并度量养老金制度中的社会性别倾向,为中国相关问题研究提供思路。     

现代化与社会治安的内在联系

现代化与社会治安有着深刻的内在联系,其实质是有关社会转型与社会治安秩序重建的问题。现代化与社会治安的内在联系是具体的,首先,现代化从多个角度以及正反两个方面影响着社会治安秩序;其次,社会治安秩序对现代化也有着重要的反作用。从现代化与社会治安秩序的内在联系中得到的启示有:首先,要汲取现代化建设的有益成果,实现治安管理现代化;其次,应积极地构建与现代化进程相适应的社会治安秩序。     

超越边缘:一个东南侨乡回族社区文化建设的人类学考察

从一家到一族、从弱小到壮大、从经商务农到读书入仕,陈埭丁氏回族历经数百年调适和变迁,终于从外来小姓变为本地望族。借助侨乡优势,开展社区文化建设推动社区经济发展,依靠特色文化提升自身形象,超越边缘,陈埭丁氏回族成功地开辟了一条属于自己的文化之旅。     

DRUMMING UP A NEW BEAT

正A summer camp broadens the horizons of rural children It took Li Shang,a percussionist from Beijing,nearly15 hours to reach Weiziba,a village in Gansu Province,on July 21.Local transportation from the airport in the provincial capital to the village,at an altitude of 2,450 meters,remains inconvenient,but Li and his colleagues didn't seem to be bothered.     

Family Problems and Children's Competencies Over the Early Elementary School Years

SUMMARY

Problems experienced by families from a sample of at-risk, urban children were observed and recorded by social workers over a two year period. Four groups of families were distinguished through social worker case notes based on family problems and needs; families were grouped into stable high needs, stable low needs, change for better and change for worse categories. Children were then followed for three years, from the beginning of kindergarten to the end of second grade, and assessed on classroom competence and academic achievement outcomes. Classroom competence included the teacher's rating of both the child's social skills in the classroom, and the academic competence of the child. Academic achievement included a standardized assessment of both math and reading skills. Results indicated that children from families with stable low needs consistently perform with more competence in the classroom than children from families with stable high needs or those whose need status increased. Children from families with stable high needs score comparably to children from families with stable low needs on math, and no difference between groups were found in reading. Implications of these findings for strengthening family competence is discussed.     

积极修辞在刑事案件辩护词写作中的运斥——以夏俊峰故意杀人罪死刑辩护词为例

积极修辞的有效运用，可以打破词语的一般意义层，鲜明生动地联结起意义网络。中国政法大学滕彪教授为沈阳小贩夏俊峰故意杀人罪撰写的刑事辩护词为现代汉语修辞分析提供了典型的法律文本，展示积极修辞在刑事案件辩护词中的作用，有利于形塑社会经验，介入、影响法律的文本功能，构筑、编织法律话语把人类的共同生活调控到有序的法制轨道上。     

社会环境对政治社会化代际特征变化的影响——以90后高校学生的政治社会化为例

政治社会化的代际特征既有其普遍性也有特定的变化,自觉认识和处理社会环境对政治社会化代际特征的影响,是既定共同体坚定人们对政治体系的认同和信心、以及维持相应制度的合法性支持和运作实效的必需。在社会环境的影响下,当前高校学生政治社会化存在的问题,主要体现为政治价值取向的功利化、政治认同的模糊化、以及政治参与的冷漠化。     

从关税管理走向关税治理——对海关综合治税的治理视角解读与构想

综合治税是近年海关税收管理实践的重大创新,取得了显著的效果。文章借用当代公共行政学的最新成果之一——治理理论的分析框架与方法．从理论层面对综合治税实践加以解读,探寻其中蕴含的治理思想,并前瞻性地展望了关税管理向关税治理模式变迁路径与创新构想,以期进一步充实关税管理理论,并对海关综合治税实践提供一定的前瞻性指导。     

文化研究中的哲学历史观问题

文化可以从动和静两种形式考察,这相当于老子所谓“履”和“迹”的关系。人类的社会生活实践总是从动的形式转化为静的形式,即从时间形式转化为空间形式。要真正达到文化自觉,不能局限于空间形式的考察,而要坚持唯物史观的实践动态观点。     

对讯问策略的法律思考

本文结合国内外讯问专家和司法判例对于侦查阶段讯问特点的阐述,认为法律应该为侦查讯问留出一定的合法性空间。随后,结合德国的制度对于我国《刑事诉讼法》第93条的内容进行探讨,认为讯问是一项任意性侦查措施,且犯罪嫌疑人的沉默权可以从法理上推导出来。本文另从实体上对第93条的内容规定的"义务"和"权利"进行概念诠释以及对讯问方法合法性轮廓界定,最后从审前报送、事中监督和事后审查等程序上设计对侦查人员进行非法讯问的规制制度以规范讯问活动。     

ONE MAN'S DRIVE

While most people on Chinese New Year's Eve focus on their big reunion dinners,in the case of Meng Dapeng,a bus driver in Beijing,it is a normal working day.The day consists of completing a full inspection of the vehicle,keeping a cautious eye on things and taking his passengers from stop to stop,a routine Meng has stuck to for 10 years.     

GOING THE DISTANCE

As Chinese consumers embrace cute dolls and warm clothing made from Peruvian alpaca fur, Uncle Mamani, a Peruvian craftsman, has also em-barked on a journey for the better. He and his family work for Warmpaca, a brand set up by Chinese and Peruvian co-founders manufacturing alpaca fur products. This year marks the com-pany's fourth time participating in the annual China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, once again proving an expo highlight. Peru is home to the alpaca, a domesticated camelid mammal that roams the high altitudes of the Andes and bears soft and light fur which, after processing, can be used to generate a variety of products. Many Peruvian families rely on the raising of alpacas or selling of alpaca souvenirs for a living. Established in 2018, Warmpaca has developed around 200 varieties of prod-ucts ranging from dolls to clothes and scarves. It has seen the floor area of its stand at the expo expand from only 9 to 30 square meters this year.     

女性的身心健康及其影响因素--来自上海的报告

第二期上海妇女社会地位调查资料的描述性统计结果表明,女性的身体和心理健康素质明显差于男性,郊县女性的生殖健康状况堪忧,女性的医疗资源偏少,健康意识缺乏但健康消费优于男性。多元线性回归分析结果显示,精神文化生活质量、健康意识、家庭地位满意度和是否在业与女性的身心健康呈正相关,因经济原因未及时看病、单亲的、个人权益曾受到侵害的以及社会上的性别歧视对女性身心健康有显著的负面后果。     

论公安情报专业中实践教学的重要性及实施

作为现代公安教育的一门新兴学科,公安情报专业与其他学科不同的是,其他学科都已经形成了成熟的理论体系,而公安情报专业知识大多是实践经验的总结,没有形成科学的学科体系。在这种情况下研究和探讨公安情报专业教学途径和方法有着深刻的意义。文章从教学角度探讨了公安情报专业教学中实践教学的重要性和实施方法、步骤,希望能起到抛砖引玉的作用。