北非动荡与非洲国家经济发展的走向

北非国家与撒哈拉以南非洲国家具有十分相似的单一经济结构，从这个角度出发，这次北非的动荡，对于非洲国家是个警示。非洲国家吸取教训，在经济发展上出现了一些新的动向：第一，对于单一经济结构的认识进一步加深。摆脱经济发展对外依赖性的要求更加强烈；第二，经济一体化进程将加速；第三。加强南南合作，尤其是与中国的合作；第四，吸取北非动荡的教训，适时调整经济发展政策。     

试析影响2011年非洲经济发展的若干因素

2011年，北非国家和少数撒哈拉以南非洲国家遭遇了政局动荡、欧债危机冲击以及自然灾害的肆虐。面对这些负面因素，非洲国家采取积极措施，努力开发和利用各种资源，坚定执行“联合自强、自主发展”的战略，加快地区经济一体化进程，南南合作也得到加强。在非洲国家的努力下，非洲大陆经济在动荡中前进，并且获得了较好的成绩。     

五载磨剑 精品荟萃——《非洲百科》、《中东百科》联袂问世

由中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所主编、荟萃多种学科精华的《简明非洲(撒哈拉以南)百科全书》(以下简称《非洲百科》)和《简明西亚北非(中东)百科全书》(以下简称《中东百科》),经过了5年多的辛勤耕耘,于10月联袂问世.……     

对当前中东局势演变的若干思考

当前中东局势动荡其实是中东国家迫切需要的政治和社会转型的一部分,对地区国家的政治改革和社会进步具有明显的推动作用,但阿拉伯世界作为整体被再次分化和削弱。旧的秩序被打破后,阿拉伯世界的传统意识形态面临新的时代挑战。西方试图将中东变革引入所谓民主化轨道,未来中东地区有可能形成多元政治架构,但其过程漫长,且中东各国政治进程的发展难以摆脱本地区历史、宗教、文化和社会现实的影响。我们应将美国西方的介入置于当前国际体系加速转型,世界政治、经济权势向非西方国家转移的大背景下加以观察。中东动荡短期内会分散美国关注重点,但不会改变其从中东总体收缩的态势,更不会动摇其战略东移步伐。     

世纪之交的拉美政局和对外关系

2000年拉美政局在执政71年的墨西哥革命制度党落选、安第斯地区国家出现动荡情况下,总体上仍保持基本稳定;地区一体化有新发展;对外关系更加活跃、务实和多元化,与美、欧、亚关系均在进一步调整和加强。但潜在的问题和不安定因素依然存在。未来一个时期内,拉美各国求稳定、求和平及谋求团结合作以提高在世界新秩序中地位的势头不会逆转,拉美在国际上的作用将会增大。一、2000年政局与外交(一)拉美地区形势基本稳定,但出现局部动荡。多数国家的经济发展不平衡,有些国家的社会形势依然严峻,政治、社会问题负面影响仍然存在。1、政局基本稳定是…     

中东政治的基本特点与发展趋势

始于2011年初的中东北非政治动荡是一场阿拉伯群众反抗运动，个人、社会能量由此得到一定程度释放，中东国家的内政外交因之而改变。中东政治从此进入一个新时期，由僵化、停滞、稳定的时期进入充满活力、动荡、冲突的阶段。这既是一扇希望之窗，也是一条荆棘之路，可以称之为“创造性破坏”。中国对中东政策面临新的机遇和挑战，需要深入研究、讨论。     

战后北非对欧洲移民问题及其影响

第二次世界大战以后,北非五国出现了持久的移民欧洲浪潮.导致这种移民潮的原因是多方面的,既有经济、政治、社会文化的动因,也与历史、地理和生存环境等因素有关.大规模的移民浪潮在北非和欧洲国家都引发了复杂的社会问题,并对北非与欧洲国家关系、北非与撒哈拉以南非洲国家关系产生了多方面的影响.长期以来,北非与欧洲国家采取了诸多应对措施来解决由移民引发的一些社会问题,虽然取得了一定的成效,但迄今仍面临多重挑战.     

西亚北非动荡与中国的政策

西亚北非动荡因叙利亚危机持续发酵及地区部分国家政权重建将出现长期化趋势.阿拉伯国家向何处去,成为转型国家面临的严峻课题.动荡使本地区国家关系更加复杂,地区格局面临新的调整,地区大国间矛盾和力量消长,将影响有关国家政局和热点问题走向.美国推出以“价值观外交”为核心、以“新干涉主义”为手段的新中东政策,旨在维护对中东的主导权,并为其战略重心东移扫清障碍.中国坚持不干涉内政政策,尊重有关国家人民自主选择的原则立场,得到国际社会理解和肯定.     

北非中东动荡之国际政治经济学分析

自2010 年12 月突尼斯政局动荡开始、迅速波及北非和中东国家的动乱,深刻影响着 当前的国际关系。从国际政治经济学的视角来看,此次北非中东动乱背后有其深刻的国际政治经 济背景,它是美欧地缘战略诉求矛盾、争夺北非中东地区主导权的体现,是大国“货币权力”在世界 体系转型过程中的地缘冲突表现,是美国努力维护其世界经济霸权地位的体现。此次北非中东动 荡,一是使中小国家可能对美欧采取制衡战略,美国与伊斯兰世界关系可能恶化;二是导致产生了 “卡扎菲悖论”,破坏国际核安全态势;三是冲击国家主权理论,消极影响未来的国际关系准则。     

联合国与利比亚重建:进程与前景

利比亚是北非和大中东地区的一个重要国家。2011年2月,受中东和北非阿拉伯动荡的影响,以律师菲西·塔贝尔遭逮捕为诱因,利比亚多个城市爆发示威游行。在遭到当局镇压后,利比亚动荡局势迅速演变为内战。反政府武装在东部班加西成立"全国过渡委员会",政府军和反政府武装在多个战略要地展开激战。2011年8月,在北约的支援下,利比亚反对派武装攻入首都的黎波里,卡扎菲政权的统治     

Expatriates as voters? The new dynamics of external voting in Sub-Saharan Africa

Expatriate voting has gained in importance over the last decade in Sub-Saharan Africa. This article gives an empirical overview of existing regulations in all independent states of the continent and examines some explanatory approaches in the African context. One approach claims that expatriate enfranchisement is a functional response to the increasing importance of migrants and their remittances. A second explanation refers to the role of domestic political structures and regime types. A third cluster of explanatory factors links external voting to the interests of political parties. Both in the broader comparative analysis and by looking more specifically at the cases of Ghana, South Africa, Cape Verde and Nigeria, all three approaches specifically contribute to understanding variation of external voting rights in Sub-Saharan Africa.     

Analysis of the Current Situation in North Africa ＆ the Middle East

After the upsurge of domestic turmoil in Tunis last December,unrest spread rapidly through North Africa and the Middle East,having a profound effect on current international relations.It will continue to affect relations between the major powers and the international system as a whole for some time to come.The regional turmoil of North Africa and the Middle East is of particular interest to International Political Economy(IPE)studies.It seems to embody a geostrategic conflict between the US and the EU in contending for leadership in North Africa and the Middle East.It is also an expression of the competition for dominance of the global financial structure between the major powers during a period of transition in the international system.Lastly,it is a manifestation of America’s struggle to maintain its global economic hegemony.     

The Arab World Attempts Third Revival

Many theories have been put forward to explain the civil unrest that erupted across the Middle East and North Africa at the beginning of this year. The author of this paper believes that seen from an historical perspective the unrest was an attempt by the Arab world to stage a third revival.     

当前中亚地区宗教极端势力活动的主要特点、趋势及影响

2010年以来,中亚地区宗教极端势力趋于活跃：趁中亚部分国家政局动荡和社会危机加紧向政坛渗透;利用中亚地区新一轮伊斯兰化思潮加大极端思想宣传;完善组织体系和实施新的暴力恐怖活动。中亚地区宗教极端势力的活跃将对地区国家政治、经济建设、地区间国家关系产生重要影响。     

动荡中孕育变革、低迷里不乏希望——2011年国际局势总结与2012年展望

2011年,“阿拉伯之春”改变了中东、北非地缘政治生态;美国加速全球战略调整,高调“重返亚太”;全球政治思潮空前激荡,世界仍面临形形色色的恐怖威胁;西方主要经济体表现低迷,新兴经济体强劲增长势头放缓。2012年,多个主要国家大选,世界政治版图会以何种方式重建值得关注;欧债危机继续,但在欧盟干预下有可能得到缓解;中东局势将是全球政治最大聚焦场所,未来大国关系因中东局势如何调整是事关全球地缘战略格局的新挑战。     

Political economy of road maintenance: a utility diagnostic

Sub-Saharan Africa requires US$30 billion annually for its infrastructure maintenance, with every dollar spent saving the economy about four times that. However, many governments still do not recognise the need for road maintenance, increasing vehicle operating costs – to more than 1% of GDP in some regions. Still, there are too few political economy diagnostics of this problem and policy responses aiming to ring-fence dedicated funds have had mixed results. This article proposes a diagnostic through which to understand the institutional root causes of the problem using the case of Moldova.     

Contracts,Norms, and Political Economy: Sub-Saharan State Credibility and the Microeconomic Foundations of Developmental Taxation

The article focuses on the microeconomic foundations and effects of the fragile tax base in Sub-Saharan Africa, which have been insufficiently taken into account by the international financial institutions. Two vicious circles are analysed. The first addresses the political economy of states: their inability to redistribute revenues reinforces a lack of credibility, leading to a reluctance by the majority of the population to pay taxes. Instead, there is ongoing reliance on private interpersonal transfers. This is compounded by the way markets interlock, creating negative effects in terms of efficiency. This vicious circle is related to a second one, which stems from the nature of the social contracts that link citizens to the state, and which are rarely of the individualistic-voluntary type characteristic of developed states. States, therefore, are often not part of the reciprocity chain, which explains the failure of some reforms in Africa.     

Explaining Urban Social Disorder and Violence: An Empirical Study of Event Data from Asian and Sub-Saharan African Cities

By 2050, two thirds of the world's population will live in cities, and the greatest growth in urban populations will take place in the least developed countries. This presents many governments with considerable challenges related to urban governance and the provision of services and opportunities to a burgeoning urban population. In the current article, we use a new event dataset on city-level urban social disorder, drawing upon prominent theories in the conflict literature. The dataset spans the 1960–2009 period, covering 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa and includes data on nonviolent actions such as demonstrations and strikes and violent political actions like riots, terrorism, and armed conflict. We find that urban social disorder is associated in particular with low economic growth rates and hybrid democratic regimes, while level of development, economic inequality, large youth bulges, and economic globalization do not seem to affect levels of urban social disorder.