What can the Basque peace process learn from Southeast Asia?

This article contributes to a bidirectional Asia–Europe comparative analysis of peace processes by exploring what experiences, both failures and successes, can the Basque peace process learn from the many interesting peace initiatives that Southeast Asia has seen in recent years, above all in Mindanao, Aceh, Southern Thailand and Burma. Although there are substantial differences between the Basque conflict and the Asian cases, it might be useful for the Basque case to look beyond the cases with which it traditionally has been compared to, such as Quebec, Northern Ireland or South Africa.     

Parties,Protest and Pluralism in Cambodia

In the 1990s, early post-Cold War optimism regarding the rapid spread of democracy in the South faded, as multiparty elections in new democracies were observed to exacerbate conflicts of identity rather than ameliorating the effects of conflicts of interest. Research in Cambodia suggests, however, that the promotion by political parties of identity-based conflict offers opportunities for individuals and groups to attempt to insert a more pragmatic interest-based agenda. Party activities also offer an exemplar for political advocacy and activism, which is useful to non-party interest groups and social movements. Cambodia's electoral experience further suggests that parties attempting to respond to such interest-based agendas may be rewarded by voters at the polls. Analytical focus upon the efforts of individuals and non-party movements to make use of the opportunities offered by political parties, rather than upon the mobilizational strategies and rhetorics of party leaders, offers a more optimistic prognosis for democracy in the third world.     

Regionalism in Asia as Disguised Multilateralism: A Critical Analysis of the East Asia Summit and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Revolving around the concept of ‘Community’ or ‘community’, debate on an Asian region has ostensibly pitted those who proposed an entity limited to East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea and the ten countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations, ASEAN) against those who proposed a much wider region embracing India, North (and, perhaps, South) America, as well as Australasia. Previously these two conceptualisations possessed their eponymous translation in the East Asian Economic Caucus (reincarnated as ASEAN+3) and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. However, with the creation in 2005 of the East Asian Summit to include India, Australia and New Zealand and, above all, its 2011 enlargement to include the United States and Russia, the contrast between the two conceptualisations of an Asian region has become confused. In order to explain this development, this article suggests that the language of ‘region’ or ‘community’ is a discursive smokescreen disguising changes in approaches to multilateralism. An examination of the East Asia Summit, contrasting it with another recent regional project, the Trans Pacific Partnership, suggests that the actors involved are seeking to ensure the primacy of individual nation states in intergovernmental multilateral relations.     

Indonesia and Southeast Asian territorial peace processes

This article offers an Indonesian perspective to the analysis of peace processes. The Indonesian experiences from territorial peace processes in the South China Sea, Mindanao and Aceh can offer ideas and inspiration. But if there is an overarching conclusion that may be derived from the experience of Indonesia, it is that there are no hard and fast rules. The approaches will have to depend on the general situation, the disposition and perceptions of the parties in conflict, the external environment of that conflict, and the capabilities and credibility of the entity carrying out the preventive diplomacy initiative. Ambassador Sastrohandoyo Wiryono, Indonesian Governor in the ASEF Board and formerly Indonesia’s Chief Negotiator in Aceh Peace Talks (2002–2003), and mediator of conflicts in Mindanao.

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评析中国在南中国海问题中的地位与作用

南中国海是一片在地图上不起眼的区域,但它却对亚太区的稳定起着举足轻重的作用。关于南沙群岛主权归属的争议一直是东南亚地区的热点问题。中国及台湾地区、越南、菲律宾、马来西亚和缅甸等国关于南沙群岛的主权归属问题一直存在争议。南沙群岛因其丰富的石油和其他天然资源及重要的战略地位受到关注。中国作为崛起的大国,对南中国海区域的稳定起着重要的作用。中国会在南沙问题上扮演什么角色呢?是引起军事争端还是与东南亚国家合作,和平解决南沙问题呢?这将是本文要回答的关键问题。同时本文也对中国在南中国海问题中扮演的角色做出批判性的评价。     

A Crowded Stage: Liabilities and Benefits of Multiparty Mediation

In today's environment, the international response to conflict often entails multiple mediators as well as other third-party actors such as peacekeeping forces, development agencies, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and lone operators. Such a profusion of actors has often made peacemaking efforts messy, difficult, and at times chaotic. The vicious nature of internal conflicts, however, and the high costs for the international community of failing to prevent or end war make it critical to understand these multiple third-party interventions. The principal question is: do these multiparty mediations help or hurt the cause of peace? If the answer to that question is that a multiplicity of third parties can hurt a peace process, does the solution lie in stopping multiple third-party attempts at peacemaking? On the other hand, if the answer is that multiparty mediation can help, are there ways of increasing the chances that it will?     

南海航行安全对世界经济的影响

南海航行安全对亚太经济和与亚太经济联系密切的世界其它各地的经济发展都有重大影响,由于南海地区的海盗问题与周边国家的政治、经济、政治状况有直接联系,并且受到美、日、印等国对东南亚地区政策的影响,国际间打击海盗的合作和推动地区政治、经济、安全机制的建立成为当务之急。     

From Media Attention to Negotiated Peace: Human Rights Reporting and Civil War Duration

Violations of human rights in the context of a conflict have in recent years received an increasing amount of attention from the international media. Yet how such media attention influences conflict remains understudied and, a priori, uncertain. On the one hand, media coverage of human rights abuses may constitute “naming and shaming” that might temper hostilities. On the other hand, such coverage might spark intransigence and complicate negotiations among conflicting parties, thereby hindering rather than hastening peace. This article tries to adjudicate among these and other possibilities by exploring how media reporting on human rights abuses influences the development of conflicts. The analysis reveals that such reporting is associated with shorter conflicts and negotiated agreements between fighting parties.     

The Limits of Peace: Third Parties in Civil Wars in Southeast Asia, 1993–2004

At of the end of 2005, Asia had the highest number of active civil war dyads. The number of active dyads in other regions was either low or declining. Africa, in particular, experienced a sharp drop in the number of active dyads from 2001 to 2005. Civil wars in Asia also last longer than wars in other regions. With a high number of warring dyads fighting in long wars, the expectation would be that the region would be the focus of third-party conflict management, but this is not the case. In this article, we use an original data set to take a closer look at this gap in expectations by focusing on third-party efforts in Southeast Asia between 1993 and 2004. Bilateral talks were the most common form of third-party engagement, but mediation has been the most likely form to lead to agreements between warring parties. We conclude the article with a discussion of the policy implications of this research.     

Southeast Asian water conflicts—from a political geography perspective

This article analyzes water-related conflicts in Southeast Asia and draws the attention to controversial dam—and hydropower—schemes. It focuses on three dam projects in Thailand, Laos and Burma that are all interwoven by different characteristics of development assistance. But they also slightly differ in terms of the implementation stage, the geopolitical setting, the socio-economical frameworks and the actors involved. Against this analytical background, the approach unveils the complexity of internationalising conflicts that are created under the influence of the ongoing globalisation and by multiple actors involved, their networks, strategies and power relations. “Scarcity of resources—securing energy by development assistance” provides a brief introduction by drawing the main global configurations. “Energy supply and poverty alleviation—new dams in Southeast Asia” zooms in on the specific stage by mirroring dam disputes in Southeast Asia (SEA). Based on these fundamentals, in “Different dams—diverse actors and conflict potentials” the case studies are reconstructed to highlight the multiplicity of dam-projects and inherent controversies. “Conclusion—new conflict frameworks require new instruments of dispute resolution” offers an outlook on conceptual ideas on how to deal with future dam disputes under the auspices of development assistance.     

How do Asians evaluate Europe’s strategic involvement in East Asia?

Europe is neither in the centre of Southeast Asia’s nor of Northeast Asia’s strategic interest. For both, Asians and Europeans it has been equally difficult to articulate their visions of each other’s role in security matters. However, Asia recognizes positively the EU’s civilian dominated approach in peacekeeping missions, e.g. in East Timor or in Aceh. Europe’s contribution to the Asia Regional Forum has been rather modest. But due to the increasing importance of comprehensive security, Europe’s experiences as a soft power could well change this position, provided both sides pay more attention to the constraints of the two regions. China as the major power in the region is somehow caught between the devil and the deep blue sea: on one side, it neither wants nor expects Europe to play a strategic role in East Asia. On the other, it would like to see Europe to become a power of its own in a China-US-EU triangle. This paper is based on a speech given by the author in Paris/France on 8th December 2006 at a conference on ‘French and European Strategic Interests in East Asia’ organised by the ‘Asia Centre’ with the support of the Secrétariat général de la défense nationale (SGDN). Mr. Norbert von Hofmann is an independent consultant on Southeast Asian-European co-operation in Germany. Formerly he was the Head of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung’s Office for Regional Cooperation in Southeast Asia in Singapore.     

东南亚新地区主义的范式研究及其制度转型

当前,新地区主义的研究有了新的进展,该研究范式逐渐摒弃旧地区主义研究中的某些理论缺陷,不再过分强调"一体化(integration)"概念,而是借助国际关系理论中的一个新概念,即"国际规制(inter-national regimes)"(又译"国际体制"、"国际机制"、"国际制度"等)来描述当今地区化潮流的性质、程度和意义.     

Killing Time: The World Politics of Civil War Duration, 1820–1992

Policymakers often trumpet the potential for third parties to stop the killing associated with civil wars, yet third parties as strategic actors also have incentives to encourage longer civil wars. We argue that in order to assess the influence of third parties on civil war duration, it is necessary to consider the interdependent nature of third party interventions as they are distributed across the set of civil war combatants. We also argue that it is important to consider the geopolitical context in which civil wars occur, rather than focusing solely on characteristics internal to these conflicts. To test our hypotheses about the impact of third parties and geopolitical factors on civil war duration, we rely on event history analysis and a sample of 152 civil wars for the period 1820–1992. We find empirical support for the idea that extremely long civil wars correspond to the equitable distribution of third party interventions—stalemates prolong wars. The analysis also indicates that separatist civil wars and ongoing civil wars in states proximate to the civil war state result in civil wars of longer duration. Finally, we find that when third parties raise the stakes of the conflict by engaging in the use of militarized force against the civil war state, the duration of these conflicts is reduced. In general, our analysis underscores the importance of modeling the interdependent and dynamic aspects of third party intervention as well as the world politics of civil wars when forecasting their duration and formulating policy.     

中国国家利益及其在中国—东盟关系中面临的机遇与挑战

东南亚地区关乎我国崛起过程中祖国和平统一、维护南海主权、确保良好中美关系以及拓展对外贸易等核心及重要国家利益,是推行睦邻周边外交、构建稳固战略依托的命脉和支点。台湾问题、南中国海问题、能源问题、自贸区建设问题及提高软实力问题是双方关系中的关键问题,在这些问题上中国核心及重要国家利益面临重大机遇和一定挑战。正确认识这些机遇与挑战将有助于我们有的放矢地推动双方关系进一步发展进而促进我国国家利益的全面实现。     

Intervenors with Interests and Power

This article presents a framework for understanding the roles that interested and powerful intervenors play in resolving disputes. Called an intervention role grid, this framework can be used to analyze the dispute resolution functions that third parties can perform. It may also be used to shed light on the difficult choices that confront intervenors with interests and power. The article uses case material from five recent international conflicts to illustrate how the intervention role grid works.     

东盟管理争端规范及其作用

东盟的产生源于减弱地区安全不确定性，缓解各国之间的安全困境与领土争端。东盟发表了一系列文件，并制定了相应的行为规范，建立了管理和解决成员国间冲突的机制。东盟在克服诸多挑战的过程中，在制定冲突管理规范方面取得了一些进展。东盟在建立安全共同体的过程中强调应对和管理冲突的东盟模式，虽然其贡献和作用受到质疑，但在管理东南亚地区冲突方面却得到了普遍认可。     

昆明市建设面向东南亚和南亚地区国际化中心城市的优势与机遇

随着国际形势的深刻变动和世界格局加速调整,云南省已成为我国通向印度洋和太平洋、连接南亚和东南亚之间泛亚国际大通道的重要结点和物流枢纽。昆明作为云南省唯一的特大型城市,在全省的对外开放中起着中心和领跑者的作用。本文主要分析昆明市建设面向东南亚和南亚地区国际化中心城市的优势与机遇。     

2003年的东盟与中国-东盟自由贸易区

在东南亚经济复苏、东亚经济增长、世界形势多变的情况下 ,东盟在2003年比较活跃 ,成为亚洲舞台上的一个热点 ,不仅促进了东盟内部在政治、经济、地区安全、社会的一体化进程 ,而且还进一步扩大了与中国、日本、韩国、印度等亚太国家的合作 ,加强了与美国、欧盟在非传统安全领域的对话与合作。中国—东盟自由贸易区进展顺利 ,它的启动积极地推动了东盟与中国经贸关系的发展。一、东盟 :扩大合作 ,促进一体化2003年的世界并不宁静 ,美英联军发动对伊拉克战争 ,“SARS”上半年肆虐东北亚和东南亚 ,在这种多变的形势下 ,东盟在各方面加强了内…     

China and the Pacific Island Countries

Since formal diplomatic relations between China and Fiji were established in 1975, China has gradually developed its bilateral and multilateral relations with the Pacific islands countries （PICs）. Especially in recent years, China has deepened its involvement in the South Pacific, and its influence in the region has been growing rapidly. Today, China appears to be one of the major players in the South Pacific region. This increased Chinese engagement has drawn wide attention in academic and political circles. While some scholars and analysts take a positive view of such an engagement, others are concerned about the rising presence of China in the region. Is China＇s engagement with the South Pacific a new strategic threat or not？ This paper will examine the major motives underlying China＇s engagement with the South Pacific and analyze the implications of China＇s engagement for the PICs and Australia.