左支右绌:缅甸中立外交的坚守与调适

缅甸的殖民历史使国家安全成为缅甸独立后外交政策中最重要的因素,也使得军方长期掌握缅甸外交政策的决定权。对军方而言,外交的核心目的在于保证缅甸主权独立完整,因而军方赞同并坚守吴努确立的中立、不结盟的外交原则。缅甸的地缘位置决定了其内忧外患的战略环境,限制了其外交政策的腾挪空间。由于不同时期国内外环境的变化,缅甸中立外交原则的具体实践有所调适和妥协。1988—1992年短暂弃用中立政策、"一边倒"向中国后,缅甸一直在努力摆脱对中国的过度依赖,力争实现外交多元化。但是,缅甸长期经济发展落后,国家治理能力低下,当面临严重的外部冲击或内部危机时,往往只能依靠中国提供政治保护和经济支持,这又在一定程度上对其外交的中立主义和多元化产生不利影响。民盟政府执政后缅甸的中立和多元化外交依然面临着各种挑战。     

缅甸军政府的转型及其前景展望

缅甸军政府的转型出于国内外压力。转型后的文官政府在政治体制上有民主化变革;在行政人事上实行文官主导、军人公务员并存的体制;在中央与地方关系上扩大了民族自治权;在宗教治理上延续了对佛教的控制;保留了军人的主导作用。缅甸文官政府政治前景不容乐观,但其对民主制度的规定与对合法性的追求,也为民主政治的发展提供了契机。     

姗姗来迟的缅甸对外开放

姗姗来迟的缅甸对外开放林锡星从１９９３年开始，缅甸军人政府加快改革步伐，在国内同少数民族反政府武装集团进行谈判，实现停火，彻底孤立了民主派。对外加强同中国和东盟国家的政治、经济、外交关系，并积极同美国接触。过去一贯闭关自守的军人政府１９９３年以来频频...     

军政关系与缅甸政治发展道路的形成——兼论其对外交关系的影响

自现代国家建立之后,缅甸便致力于走议会制民主政治道路,但其发展却屡遭挫折.纵观缅甸跌宕起伏的政治发展进程,其命运始终与军人集团紧密关联,军政关系是直接决定缅甸政治发展道路的重要因素.军政关系既是塑造缅甸政治结果的核心机制,也是理解其政治发展道路的关键密钥.在1988年"缅甸之春"之后,军人集团开启了"渐进性脱离"模式的政治民主化转型,军人集团全面领导、设计和构建了"有纪律的民主"这种具有缅甸特色的政治体制.事实上,缅甸"有纪律的民主"并不是绝对意义上的西方式民主政体,而是一种兼具威权统治方式与民主政治规则的"混合政体".军人集团构建"有纪律的民主"这种特殊"混合政体"的根本目的是要继续维持自身对国家的领导,其缘起、形成及建构与缅甸的军政关系有着极为密切的关系.同时,"有纪律的民主"也是缅甸探索走具有本国特色政治发展道路的结果.文章通过结合军政关系来理解缅甸在1988年后的政治发展道路的形成机制,这将丰富对于军政关系、"混合政体"及军人政权转型等方面的研究,也有益于认知当代后发国家自主探索走具有本国特色发展道路的特殊规律和前沿动态.     

国际身份危机与缅甸军人接权后的外交困局

缅甸在军方重新接管政权两年多来，国内危机持续外溢，在国际上遭受西方制裁等危机。既有文献从军方合法性、反对派动员和大国博弈的角度去解读，但仍难以系统诠释缅甸危机的僵局所在，也即缅甸内部政治互信与国际信任赤字相互叠加的结果。缅甸在政权更迭后，无法由内而外塑造“我群”共识，与国际行为体产生难以调和的认知歧异，继而生成了多重身份危机，包括遭受制裁、难以“重新融入国际社会”的转型身份危机，难以继续融入“东盟大家庭”的地区身份危机，以及与大国关系失衡的中立身份危机。缅甸的国际身份在2011—2020年的转型十年间逐步明晰，而在2021年转型受挫后，外交困局也随之而来。通过案例分析发现，缅甸看守政府改善外交处境的前提是努力确保国际身份清晰化，同步争取外部共识。鉴于中短期内缅甸难以确证转型身份和中立身份并回归“正常国家”,通过“东盟方式”重塑地区身份仍是最不坏的选择。     

缅甸外交政策的新调整:从对华友好到大国平衡外交

1988年政变上台的缅甸新军人政权,遭到西方国家的制裁,不得不努力发展与中国的关系,以稳定国内局势。在统治得到巩固后,缅甸新军人政权开始奉行大国平衡的外交政策,即在继续发展对华关系的同时,努力改善与东盟、印度和日本的关系。本文还分析了缅甸奉行大国平衡外交政策的原因:内因是缅甸国内的民族主义情绪不断上升,外因是区域内外各有关国家对中国在缅甸及周边地区影响不断扩大存在恐惧心理。     

试析二战后英国对缅政策的改变

二战结束后,英国政府的对缅政策发生了令人瞩目的改变.在国内和国际政治形势的推动下,英国政府开始与缅甸民族运动领导人通过谈判解决缅甸独立问题,加快了缅甸本部与山区少数民族的统一进程.英国对缅政策的改变深刻地影响了缅甸战后的政治格局.一方面,以昂山为代表的反法西斯人民自由同盟抓住机会,以和平手段争取缅甸的独立建国;另一方面,自由同盟与缅甸共产党、少数民族的裂痕加深,终于在独立后爆发了内战.     

特朗普政府对缅甸罗兴亚危机的政策

自2017年8月缅甸新一轮罗兴亚危机发生以来,特朗普政府通过一系列政策声明、情况说明、特别简报会等方式阐述美国的政策取向和立场,展开美缅双边及国际多边危机应对外交,进行紧急人道主义援助,以及对缅甸军方的追责制裁。特朗普政府积极利用罗兴亚危机推行美国的"印太战略"。总体而言,特朗普政府的罗兴亚危机政策体现出高度的现实主义和实用主义特征。特朗普政府的罗兴亚危机政策是"美国优先"国家安全战略下的外交政策产物,同时服务美国"印太战略",旨在防范和遏制中国提升在缅甸的影响力。     

影响缅甸民主化进程的主要政治势力

军人及其所控制的政治势力、民盟及其支持者、少数民族武装和政党在目前缅甸的社会结构中呈三足鼎立之势,但军人占绝对优势,而且后两者不具备取代军人主导缅甸政局的能力。外部势力对缅甸民主化进程的影响很大,但在对缅政策方面,中国、印度、东盟不会采取与以美国为首的西方国家完全一致的行动。因此,相当长时间内,军人将继续直接执政或在幕后主导缅甸政局。     

韩国外交政策的理论探索——评《韩国外交政策的困境:国家安全与国家统一目标的定义》

<正>冷战结束后,国际格局呈现多极化趋势,同时大国间的战略博弈愈演愈烈。东亚由于地缘政治和经济因素成为大国博弈的主要战场之一。其中,朝鲜半岛冷战结构造成的南北分裂、南北对峙等问题不仅是东北亚格局演变方向的决定因素,也是各国学者研究的重要课题。尽管国内目前有很多关于韩国外交政策和朝鲜半岛安全与统一问题的研究,但多从历史角度进行系统阐述,从理论上对该主题进行的研究相对匮乏,社会科学文献出版社出版的《韩国外交政策的困境:国家     

Germany and the Kosovo war: still a civilian power?

This article assesses the motives, significance and implications of Germany's participation in the 1999 Kosovo War. This was all the more remarkable, because it took place under a Red–Green government and was not legitimised by a UN mandate. Events in Kosovo forced the new government to choose between two foreign policy articles of faith of the German Left: ‘nie wieder Krieg’ (‘never again war’) and ‘nie wieder Auschwitz’ (‘never again Auschwitz’). The government tried to ease this dilemma by flanking its participation in the war with intensive efforts to secure a negotiated settlement of the crisis involving Russia. Despite its participation in the war, Germany remains a ‘civilian power’, as it is committed to deploying military force strictly multilaterally. Kosovo shows that it has become a normal ‘civilian power’, comparable to other mature democracies in the Euro-Atlantic community.     

抗争的动力:新媒体与缅甸的民主化

自从2007年以来,缅甸社会政治发生了很大变化,其中新媒体起了很关键的作用。在2007年"藏红花"革命和2008年纳吉斯风灾中,缅甸人民利用互联网、移动电话等新媒体技术向世界传递了政府镇压和掩盖的真相。缅甸军人政府也明显感到了新媒体技术对其统治的压力,因此在2010年缅甸大选之前,严格控制国内的互联网。新媒体技术的出现虽然没有导致缅甸社会权力结构发生实质性的变化,但是新媒体技术打破了原来军政府对信息的封锁,逐渐促进了缅甸的民主化进程。     

2000年的缅甸外交

重返国际社会是缅甸军政府近年来对外关系的重要目标。在 2 0 0 0年 ,缅甸军政府继续为此而努力 ,并保持了与中国、东盟的传统友好关系 ,与印度关系取得了突破性进展 ,与俄、日等国关系有所恢复和发展 ,但与美国、欧盟以及有关国际组织的关系依然没有明显好转。     

Geopolitics,Ethnic Conflicts along the Border,and Chinese Foreign Policy Changes toward Myanmar

Ever since Myanmar reoriented its foreign policy as a result of its transition to democratic rule in 2010, it has significantly improved its relations with the West, particularly the United States. Amid heightened geostrategic competition between the U.S. and China, how can we understand the Chinese government’s changing approaches to Myanmar, where China’s strategic and economic interests face unprecedented pressure? This article examines those changes in the context of the Chinese government’s response to three militarized ethnic conflicts along its border with Myanmar before and after Myanmar’s foreign policy reorientation. Drawing evidence from Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs statements and Chinese media coverage of the 2009 and 2015 Kokang conflicts and the 2011-2013 Kachin conflict, the article argues that combined geopolitical changes and domestic nationalist signaling explain the variations of China’s foreign policy approaches to Myanmar. The article thus contributes to ongoing interest in China’s foreign policy approaches to Southeast Asia in the wake of geostrategic competition between China and the United States.     

佐科维执政初期印尼华人社会状况初探

印尼总统佐科维自2014年10月上台以来,重视与中国发展政治与经贸关系,与中国缔结全面战略伙伴关系。在族群政策方面,他采用公平对待各族裔、各宗教的政策,继续改善包括华人在内的少数族裔的地位,华人的政治参与、经济参与和社会文化权利都有所提升。在此背景下,外界认为印尼华人正处在历史的最佳时期。但在较好的现状和光明的前景下,依然存在影响华人生存状况的隐忧。印尼经济发展疲软、政府控制力偏弱以及歧视华人的社会基础深厚,是造成隐忧频现的原因。如果佐科维政府的经济改革仍不奏效,政府对社会现状持续失控,针对华人的大规模骚乱事件仍将有可能发生。     

The Political Economy of Myanmar’s Transition

Since holding elections in 2010, Myanmar has transitioned from a direct military dictatorship to a formally democratic system and has embarked on a period of rapid economic reform. After two decades of military rule, the pace of change has startled almost everyone and led to a great deal of cautious optimism. To make sense of the transition and assess the case for optimism, this article explores the political economy of Myanmar’s dual transition from state socialism to capitalism and from dictatorship to democracy. It analyses changes within Myanmar society from a critical political economy perspective in order to both situate these developments within broader regional trends and to evaluate the country’s current trajectory. In particular, the emergence of state-mediated capitalism and politico-business complexes in Myanmar’s borderlands are emphasised. These dynamics, which have empowered a narrow oligarchy, are less likely to be undone by the reform process than to fundamentally shape the contours of reform. Consequently, Myanmar’s future may not be unlike those of other Southeast Asian states that have experienced similar developmental trajectories.     

Inside the Karen Insurgency: Explaining Conflict and Conciliation in Myanmar’s Changing Borderlands

Since 2012 Myanmar’s oldest ethnic rebel group, the Karen National Union (KNU), has sought for considerable rapprochement with the government. To many, this seemed to be the direct outcome of wider political transition in Myanmar. This article proposes an alternative explanation. Based on extensive field research and an emerging literature on armed groups, it demonstrates that the group’s rapprochement with the government was driven by leadership struggles between two rival factions within the KNU. At the core of this contestation are shifting internal power relations, which resulted from military pressures and geopolitical transformations in the Myanmar-Thai borderlands. These findings point to significant shortcomings of Myanmar’s peace process. They also contribute to the field of Conflict and Security Studies with much needed primary source data on the internal politics of insurgency, which shows how dynamics of civil war are driven by an interplay between forces on different levels of analysis.     

Addressing Myanmar’s Citizenship Crisis

Among many problematic issues surfacing in reformist Myanmar is a citizenship crisis with four main dimensions. First, in a state with fragile civil liberties, skewed political rights and limited social rights, there is a broad curtailment of citizenship. Second, Rohingya Muslims living mainly in Rakhine State are denied citizenship, and other Muslims throughout the country are increasingly affected by this denial. Third, designated ethnic minorities clustered in peripheral areas face targeted restrictions of citizenship. Fourth, the dominant Bamar majority concentrated in the national heartland tends to arrogate or appropriate citizenship. The result is growing social tension that threatens to undermine the wider reform process. To examine this crisis, the article sets Myanmar in a comparative context. In particular, it considers how multicultural states in the developed world have sought to manage a political switch from racial or ethnic hierarchy to democratic citizenship. Drawing on global experience with multiculturalism and enabling civic integration, it advances a series of policy options focused on rights, duties and identity. It argues for domestic political leadership, backed by global political support, to address Myanmar’s citizenship crisis.     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

Signs of life in Myanmar’s nationwide ceasefire agreement? Finding a way forward

This article focuses on peace-building efforts in Myanmar implemented under the Nation Wide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in 2013. It assesses the ways in which the recently elected government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD) has dealt with the NCA, and highlights opportunities and challenges. I argue that while the NLD government and Myanmar military remain crucial to the success of peace efforts, implementation of the NCA is impossible without the support of the eight current NCA signatories, in particularly the Karen National Union (KNU). Neglecting the importance of these actors not only provides an incomplete picture of ongoing peace-building efforts, but could also undermine efforts to promote national reconciliation that have thus far focused exclusively on the Myanmar government and the military. These signs of life emanating from the NCA signatories, however, have increasingly been undermined by an official failure to implement the agreement and to adhere to the agreed process and by ongoing hostilities between the military and four of the country’s ethnic armed groups.