中日东海大陆架划界中的若干关键问题

中日两国并非共大陆架是中日东海大陆架划界应首先明确的问题。以此为基础,划界应适用并体现公平原则。"中间线"由日本单方面提出,并非习惯法规则,且不符合东海实际情况,故不应成为划分两国大陆架的界线;钓鱼岛等岛屿面积小、主权存在争议且位于两国中界,依照国际实践,不应具有划界效力。中日两国邻接东海的海岸线差异显著,因而"比例性"是公平划界应考虑的一个重要因素。     

试论日俄战争前后日本和犹太金融势力的交往

19世纪中叶,日本与中国同时遭受西方列强侵略并被迫签订不平等条约,但日本却通过明治维新摆脱殖民地危机,并在1905年取得日俄战争的胜利,在探讨日本凭借犹太金融势力取得战争胜利中,竟小胜大,令人获得若干有益的启示。     

20世纪上半叶在华日本记者的中国认识——以龟井陆良为中心

19世纪末至20世纪上半叶,日本在中国创办了大量报刊。其中,在北京发行最早、影响最大的就是华文报纸《顺天时报》,该报第三代社长龟井陆良是20世纪初期活跃在北京新闻界的核心人物之一,也是中日关于"对华二十一条"交涉时日本记者当中对华强硬派的代表。然而,以第一次世界大战为分水岭,战后的龟井转变为批判日本的对华政策、积极宣扬国际和平的活动家。龟井陆良中国观的转变以及他关于新闻媒体与国际关系的一些言论和主张,对于我们回顾上个世纪中日两国由摩擦、冲突走向战争的历程,进而思考今天的中日关系以及媒体在两国关系中的作用与责任,具有历史的见证价值和重要的现实意义。     

简论日俄战争前日俄关系的演变

1904-1905年的日俄战争是在中国领土上进行的一次帝国主义战争。它的爆发是日俄两国争夺在朝鲜和中国东北的势力范围而促成的，其他列强或是出于自身的利益，或是为以后争夺中国的势力范围而周旋于日、俄、中三国之间。日俄关系的演变改变了东北亚的格局，同时对其他相关国家也产生了重大的影响。     

19世纪末20世纪初日俄关系探析

19世纪末甲午战争爆发,日本借战胜之机向清政府要求辽东半岛领土,因遭到俄、法、德三国的干涉而未果,日本开始对俄怀恨在心。此后,俄国多次在日本传统势力范围内的挑畔,更加深了两国间的裂痕,并最终导致战争。战败后的俄政府内部反日势力开始占据主导地位,但是战后国际态势的变化开始为重新探讨两国关系提供了可能。就这样,日俄两国在媾和两年后重新开始接近,并最终实现了两国敌友身份的转变。     

新南非与津巴布韦的民族问题及民族政策的比较

内容提要南非和津巴布韦两国的民族问题和民族政策既有相同点,也存在较大差异。两国除历史条件等相同外,其民族问题与民族政策的不同点主要表现在以下方面:由于外部势力的干预程度不同导致政策制定过程不同;内部势力的分化与整合差异表明政策制定的国内政治环境差异;两国对白人种族主义政权遗产处理方式不同;族际分野与政治分化的敏感性使两国面临的政局和政策导致的政治后果差异。概言之,民族问题处理得当与否对政治稳定起着极重要的作用。虽然民族问题的重要性在下降,但激进的民族政策可能带来意想不到的后果,津巴布韦的教训为其他国家提出了警示。     

印、巴缘何打不起来——评析走到战争边缘的印、巴关系及美、俄、中三方调停

由于国际社会调停，陈兵百万、大战一触即发的印巴两国从战争边缘退缩。印、巴围绕克什米尔问题的争拗由来已久，为何这次冲突却引发两国调兵遣将，并引起国际社会的高度关注。印巴两国在“9．11”之后再度紧张将给南亚及周边地区带来影响值得关注。     

甲午战争后日本对华知行的演变(1895-1905)

在甲午战争至日俄战争的十年中,日本的蔑视型中国认知从形成到固化直线发展,其优越型自我认知因"三国干涉还辽"一度受挫后,又经历了庚子事变和日俄战争之后的两次"提升"。基于上述"自他认知",这一时期日本的对华行动选择以庚子事变为界,前期以守为攻,表面上对华"示善",以巩固既得的在华权益,实际上与列强"协调",以共同蚕食中国主权;后期为了铲除其对华领土扩张的头号绊脚石,傍上英国,震慑中国,发动日俄战争并打败俄国,从而把中国东北南部纳入了其殖民统治范畴。     

中俄战略协作伙伴关系析论——问题、对策与前景

中俄战略协作伙伴关系经过10多年的发展,中俄两国各种合作机制不断完善,协作范围日益广泛,两国互信不断加深,总体上呈现良性发展态势。但不可否认的是,在两国关系的发展中仍然存在着一些问题,采取切实措施妥善处理和解决这些问题是中俄战略协作伙伴关系健康稳定发展的重要条件。未来中俄两国既不会演变成为传统意义上的"盟友"关系,也不会发生"断裂"而成为"陌路人",更不可能相互成为"敌人"。中俄战略协作伙伴关系符合中俄两国人民的根本利益,它适应时代的发展潮流,具有光明的发展前景。     

阿穆尔河舰队始末

阿穆尔河舰队成立于沙俄末期,历经日俄战争、国内战争、中苏战争、远东战役等多次国内国际重大事件,是沙皇俄国部署在黑龙江和乌苏里江上的一支重要军事力量。一百多年来该舰队的发展几起几落,在近代俄国远东的历史发展中扮演了重要角色,对近代以来中俄关系、日俄关系甚至整个东北亚国际关系的发展进程产生了重要影响。     

Dismantling the Oil Wars Myth

This article argues that, contrary to the assumptions of international relations scholars, policymakers, and the general public, states do not engage in oil wars. A twofold strategy is employed to support this assertion. First, the article scrutinizes the logical underpinnings of oil war claims, arguing that proponents have underestimated the obstacles to seizing and exploiting foreign resources and, consequently, exaggerated the likelihood of oil wars. Second, the article examines four conflicts that are commonly identified as international oil wars: Japan's attack on the Dutch East Indies in World War II, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the Iran--Iraq War, and the Chaco War between Bolivia and Paraguay. It finds that the desire to control additional oil resources was not the fundamental cause of aggression in any of these conflicts. In the latter two cases, aggression was unconnected to oil interests. In the former, states fought for their survival, not for an oil prize.     

Grand Strategy of ‘Restrainment’

With the end of the Cold War, the subsequent global war on terror, the global economic recession, and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, one would think that the United States would have formulated a grand strategy for dealing with these problems. This, however, is not the case. This article advances a grand strategy of “restrainment,” as a guiding concept for our approach to international politics. It builds from the principle that U.S. policy must seek to restrain—individually and collectively—those forces, ideas, and movements in international politics that create instability, crises, and war.     

世界政治“平靖进程”的技术变迁支撑

二战后,世界政治经历了"平靖进程",具体体现为:"大国罕有战事""国家罕有消亡"。本文融合国际政治经济学与国际安全研究,展示二战后的技术变迁改变了大国的"意愿"与"能力",支撑了世界政治新变化。在马尔萨斯时代,由于技术水平低下,生存物资稀缺,生存保障匮乏,人类面临持续的安全难题。二战后,技术发展影响了当代大国的"意愿"与"能力",让世界政治呈现新变化。技术变迁给大国提供了更为丰富的选择,让大国使用武力征服的意愿降低;同时,随着技术变迁,尤其是在"核革命"后,大国确保自身安全的能力更强,使得"大国罕有战事"。得益于技术变迁,大国利益半径扩大,即便距离遥远地域的变化也与自身息息相关,大国保障遥远海外利益的意愿提升;同时,技术变迁扩大了大国的权力投射,让世界各国,尤其是大国保障体系稳定的能力更强,致使"国家罕见消亡"。随着技术变迁,世界政治已呈现出很多与传统智慧不同的方面,孕育国际交往的新理念。     

The First World War as Catalyst and Epiphany: The Case of Henry P. Davison

The experience of the First World War was central to the emergence of a trans-Atlantic elite committed to close collaboration and an international alliance, either formal or de facto, between Great Britain and the United States. The reactions to the conflict of Henry P. Davison, dominant partner in J. P. Morgan and Company, illustrate the manner in which the First World War was catalytic in the creation of an Atlanticist elite. Davison, moreover, experienced something like a personal epiphany during the war, metamorphosing from a hard-driving businessman into an international philanthropist who developed ambitious schemes to remake the world. For seven years, Davison energetically sought to affect the course, outcome, and consequences of the First World War. Fundamental to Davison's worldview were the desirability and necessity of Anglo-American collaboration, on which all his other plans were predicated. When the war ended, Davison proposed almost visionary schemes, on the one hand to provide massive American governmental and private economic assistance to finance European postwar relief and reconstruction efforts and, on the other, to establish an international Red Cross organization that would mount a massive campaign to eradicate global public health problems. Although abortive in the short term, in the longer run his plans proved prophetic, anticipating the post-Second World War Marshall Plan and World Health Organization.     

利比亚战争的相关影响及启示

持续6个多月的利比亚战争是冷战后西方干预非洲内部事务的最新案例,其产生的影响和相关启示至少有以下六个方面：1．利比亚战争反映出西方干预弱小主权国家内部事务的新模式,是当前全球力量由西向东转移过程中的必然产物;2．非洲国家担忧殖民主义和种族主义可能会借利比亚战争借尸还魂,对非洲的自主外交和一体化进程构成冲击;3．后卡扎菲时代的利比亚有可能出现“向北看”和“向东看”,而不再是卡扎菲时代的“向南看”;4．围绕利比亚战后重建的大国利益博弈,再次暴露出国际关系中“强者为王”的丛林法则迄今尚未退出历史舞台的严峻现实;5．利比亚战争造成的武器大量扩散还客观上使得恐怖主义在非洲趁势蔓延,这不仅使非洲的和平与安全成为利比亚战争负效应的牺牲品,而且还使美国借机进一步加强其在非洲的军事存在;6．对西方借利比亚战争挤压中国在非洲的生存空间和影响力的动机不可不察。中国作为国际社会中的一支重要力量,可以也应该在利比亚战后重建中发挥积极作用。     

The American Way of Going to War: Mexico (1846) to Iraq (2003)

Prior to the Iraq War, there had been a long series of American wars in which U.S. leaders often maneuvered the other side into “firing the first shot.” This strategy of “passive defense” amounts to an American way of going to war, and it dates back at least to the U.S.-Mexican War. The United States thus retained the moral and legal legitimacy, an asset which is especially important in a democratic political system. The Iraq War represents a fundamental departure from this American way. It might be the worst crisis since Vietnam. but that war was just another entry in the U.S. playbook for how to go to war. The Iraq War not only contradicts longstanding practices in American foreign policy, but it has the potential to issue in far greater international disorder than the Vietnam War. This catastrophe may make future presidents more heedful of John Quincy Adams’ prophetic words: go not abroad in search of monsters to destroy.     

从马来西亚与日本的关系变化看冷战后东亚格局的演变

冷战后,东亚地区的国际格局发生了重大的变化,大国关系处于历史性调整时期。东盟在亚太地区的影响日益上升,并逐渐成为塑造东亚格局的重要一极。中国的崛起和日本实力的相对下降深刻地改变了东亚地区的国际关系。本文通过分析马来西亚和日本的关系演变,管窥冷战后东亚格局的演变。     

The cold peace: Russo-Western relations as a mimetic cold war

In 1989–1991 the geo-ideological contestation between two blocs was swept away, together with the ideology of civil war and its concomitant Cold War played out on the larger stage. Paradoxically, while the domestic sources of Cold War confrontation have been transcended, its external manifestations remain in the form of a ‘legacy’ geopolitical contest between the dominant hegemonic power (the United States) and a number of potential rising great powers, of which Russia is one. The post-revolutionary era is thus one of a ‘cold peace’. A cold peace is a mimetic cold war. In other words, while a cold war accepts the logic of conflict in the international system and between certain protagonists in particular, a cold peace reproduces the behavioural patterns of a cold war but suppresses acceptance of the logic of behaviour. A cold peace is accompanied by a singular stress on notions of victimhood for some and undigested and bitter victory for others. The perceived victim status of one set of actors provides the seedbed for renewed conflict, while the ‘victory’ of the others cannot be consolidated in some sort of relatively unchallenged post-conflict order. The ‘universalism’ of the victors is now challenged by Russia's neo-revisionist policy, including not so much the defence of Westphalian notions of sovereignty but the espousal of an international system with room for multiple systems (the Schmittean pluriverse).     

The First World War as Catalyst and Epiphany: The Case of Henry P. Davison

The experience of the First World War was central to the emergence of a trans-Atlantic elite committed to close collaboration and an international alliance, either formal or de facto, between Great Britain and the United States. The reactions to the conflict of Henry P. Davison, dominant partner in J. P. Morgan and Company, illustrate the manner in which the First World War was catalytic in the creation of an Atlanticist elite. Davison, moreover, experienced something like a personal epiphany during the war, metamorphosing from a hard-driving businessman into an international philanthropist who developed ambitious schemes to remake the world. For seven years, Davison energetically sought to affect the course, outcome, and consequences of the First World War. Fundamental to Davison's worldview were the desirability and necessity of Anglo–American collaboration, on which all his other plans were predicated. When the war ended, Davison proposed almost visionary schemes, on the one hand to provide massive American governmental and private economic assistance to finance European postwar relief and reconstruction efforts and, on the other, to establish an international Red Cross organization that would mount a massive campaign to eradicate global public health problems. Although abortive in the short term, in the longer run his plans proved prophetic, anticipating the post–Second World War Marshall Plan and World Health Organization.     

Regime Change and War: Domestic Politics and the Escalation of the Ethiopia--Eritrea Conflict

The 1998-2000 war between Ethiopia and Eritrea seems to defy rationalist explanations. This paper contends that the escalation of the war, from an isolated border clash to the largest conventional war of the past decade, has its roots in the domestic politics of each of the two states. Quasi-democratisation in both countries created environments in which political elites were able to bolster their popular legitimacy by utilising nationalist and aggressive foreign policy rhetoric. The Eritrean leadership believed that a rapid escalation of the border clash to full-scale war would undermine domestic popular support and topple the Ethiopian People's Democratic Front (EPRDF) regime. War escalation had the opposite effect, strengthening the EPRDF domestically and provoking a massive Ethiopian retaliation. War thus served nation- and state-building goals in both countries. This paper provides a theory of the domestic political roots of international conflict in transitional regimes and applies this theory to explain the escalation of a localised border conflict into a highly destructive, full-scale war.