从电影明星到国家总统──98年菲律宾大选透析

1998年5月11日，菲律宾举行了自1986年“二月革命”以来的第二次全国大选。这也是该国历史上最大的一次全国选举。全国3414万登记选民有约2700万选民参加了投票，超过了选民总数的80％。到5月11目投票正式开始为止，共计有10名总统候选人，9名副总统候选人，另外还有约200名众参议员候选人。这些数字都是创纪录的。在总统选举中，上届副总统埃斯特拉达不负众望，一路过关斩将，最终成为菲律宾独立以来的第9位总统。一、竞选力量强弱分明这次大选与前几届相比，最突出的一个特点就是较早就出现了政党力量强弱对比明显的情况。虽然创纪录地出…     

阿罗约连任及菲律宾内外政策走向

20 0 4年 5月 1 0日菲律宾举行了全国选举 ,4 2 0 0多万选民在各地投票点推选总统、副总统 ,共有 5名候选人参加了自 1 986年马科斯下台以来最为激烈的总统竞选。阿罗约总统获得 1 2 90多万张选票 ,赢得胜利 ,继续蝉联总统 ,反对党候选人费尔南多·波以 1 1 2万张选票之差落选。①一、阿罗约成功连任的原因(一 )阿罗约执政 3年多来 ,在推动国内经济发展的同时 ,在维护政治稳定、打击恐怖活动等方面取得了不少成绩 ,具有一定的群众基础。阿罗约是在 2 0 0 1年前总统埃斯特拉达被“第二次人民力量”运动赶下台后执政的。上台后阿罗约很快完成…     

菲律宾新总统埃斯特拉达及其内外政策

5月11日菲律宾举行20世纪的最后一次大选。参加竞选总统的候选人共有10名。登记选民为3400多万人,实际投票率超过80％。菲选举署认为,此次选举总的来说是和平和有秩序的,标志着菲民主制度的日益成熟和完善。在本届大选中,埃斯特拉达获得1052多万张选票,占选票总数的40％,当选为菲总统,并于6月30日宣誓就职。     

2003年东南亚政治发展回顾

一、紧锣密鼓备战2004年大选2004年是亚洲的大选年。在东南亚将有3个国家举行大选 ,即印尼的立法机构选举和总统选举 ,以及菲律宾的总统选举。为此 ,两国主要政党和政要的大选热身正进行得如火如荼。印度尼西亚印尼的议会和总统选举 ,分别定在2004年4月和7月举行。根据2002年印尼宪法修正案 ,将由全国选民直接选举正副总统 ,改变原来由人民协商会议选举的做法。根据2003年7月7日新总统选举法规定 ,一个政党或政党联盟在先前的国会选举中获得3%的席位或获得全国5%以上选票的 ,方可推举总统和副总统候选人参加竞选。2003年的下半年 ,各党派备…     

亚美尼亚总统大选

1998年3月30日,亚美尼亚总统选举结束,前总理科罗伯特·科恰良经过两轮角逐取胜。新总统上任后对内政策不会有大的改变,但外交政策将会有重大调整。 一、选举情况 大选于3月16日举行,有12名候选人竞选,前总理科恰良和原苏联时期亚美尼亚共和国党中央第一书记捷米尔强得票领先,第二轮选举3月30日进行,有68.9％的选民投票,科恰良以59.3％的选票当选为亚独立后的第二任总统。     

巴西总统选举与其政治前景

1989年11月15日巴西顺利地举行了29年来的第一次总统直接选举。参加本届大选投票的选民共有8200多万,其中约有85％的人是第一次参加投票选举总统,而几乎一半的选民年龄在35岁以下,选民投票率高达88.07％。这在巴西历史上是前所未有的。在第一轮选举中,国家复兴党的费尔南多·科洛尔·德梅洛获28％的选票,居首位;获第二名的是巴西人民阵线的候选人、巴西劳工党领袖路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦,他获得16％的选票。也就是说,没有一位候选人获得超过半数的选票。这样,两位得票最多的候选人要在12月17日第二轮选举中再度交锋,胜者于1990年3月15日就任巴西联邦共     

浅析菲律宾2005年“政治风暴”

2005年3月以来,菲律宾一些媒体陆续刊登现任总统阿罗约的丈夫和儿子从非法赌博行当中获利的消息;6月,反对派又抛出一份电话录音,称其中录有阿罗约在2004年总统选举后与一名选举委员会官员的谈话内容,反对派以此作为阿罗约在选举中舞弊的证据,在菲律宾掀起了一场"政治风暴".7月13日,至少3万人聚集在菲律宾首都马尼拉最繁华的马卡蒂金融商业区示威游行,要求阿罗约立即下台.7月25日,菲律宾反对派议员对阿罗约总统提出弹劾,对阿罗约提出贿赂、渎职腐败、严重违宪和违背公众信任等四项指控.本文就菲律宾此次发生"政治风暴"的原因及政局前景作些浅析.     

尼日利亚大选评析

2015年3月28日,尼日利亚举行了自1999年回归民主制后的第五次全国大选,总统和国会选举同时举行.此次大选共有14个政党参与,登记选民达6742.2万人,其中2943.2万选民参与投票,投票率达43.65％.④3月31日当选举计票接近尾声时,尼反对党全体进步大会党(简称大会党)候选人穆罕默杜·布哈里领先现任总统、执政党人民民主党(简称民主党)候选人古德勒克·乔纳森近200万张选票,胜局已定,其阵营先行宣布胜选,乔纳森致电布哈里承认败选并祝贺其获胜.4月1日,尼国家独立选举委员会(INEC)公布正式选举结果,布哈里赢得1542.4万张票,占53.95％,乔纳森获得1285.3万张选票,占44.96％.布哈里以绝对领选优势赢得总统大选.至此,尼日利亚史上首次以民主选举方式基本实现了政权和平交替.     

美国总统初选形势分析

美国总统选举大体上可以分为初选和大选两部分。初选旨在选出两党各自的总统候选人。随着美国社会、政治的发展，总统初选已经成为美国民众影响政治发展的主要途径，对于凝聚本党人气、形成本党纲领、调动选民热情，以及锻炼总统参选人都具有重要意义。2008年美国的总统初选从1月3日艾奥瓦州基层党团会议开始后，历经2月5日“超级星期二”，已经有过半数的州产生选举结果。从目前形势来看，共和党总统候选人已呼之欲出，而民主党总统候选人最早将在3月上旬产生。     

韩国第17届总统大选分析与展望

韩国第17届总统选举在即，此次大选中，在前两次总统选举中连遭失败的大国家党决心“结束左派政权”，夺回执政权。而掌权的“左派”开放国党则不遗余力地要保住政权。因此，双方的争斗十分激烈。在此前进行的所有民调中，大国家党总统候选人李明博一直遥遥领先。而在泛执政圈中欲出任总统候选人者有20多人，最后由谁来出任总统候选人尚未确定，唯一明确的是泛执政圈的总统候选人普遍缺少支持率。如果李明博在选举中胜出，韩国的对内对外政策、包括对朝政策会有一定变化，这是值得关注的。     

Inter-Korean relations and the roles of the US and of the EU

The North Korean nuclear standoff has escalated since North Korea let slip that it was developing nuclear weapons while James Kelly, U.S. Assistant Secretary of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was visiting Pyongyang in October 2002. The Bush administration has acknowledged that the United States will not discount a preemptive military strike on the suspected nuclear development facilities, and North Korea has stood firm against any pressure to halt its nuclear development from the international community. Dialogue and meetings for international cooperation among the major countries concerned, including Korea, the U.S., Japan and China, have been activated to resolve the nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula, especially after the U.S. pronounced an end to its war against Iraq in early May of this year. In the middle of the rapidly changing situation on the Korean peninsula, the inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation initiated by the Sunshine Policy of the Kim Dae Jung administration and followed by the Roh Moo-hyun administrations Policy of Peace and Prosperity are not separable from the nuclear situation. This paper follows recent developments of inter-Korean relations, illustrates South Koreas stance on the issue and suggests the EUs role on the nuclear issue. This is a revised version of the paper presented at the Asia-EU Journalists Seminar organized by the Asia Europe Foundation and the Korea Press Foundation (KPF), held in Brussels, Belgium, May 22 2003. Financial support from the KPF is gratefully acknowledged.     

美苏政治文化差异与冷战起源

一国政治文化对国家对外决策有不可忽视的影响。美苏政治文化中相互冲突的部分对两国战后初期外交决策以及冷战爆发产生重要影响，国家间的政治文化沟通对处理国家间相互关系具有重要意义。     

Strengthen the Communication Among the Youth and Enhance the Mutual Understanding and Trust

AttheinvitationoftheInternationalInitiativesofChangeAssociationofJapanIICAJIaccompa-niedMr.LiYangCouncilMemberofChineseAs-sociationforInternationalUnderstandingCAFIUonthevisittoJapanfromJune10to18andat-tendedthe27thInternationalConferenceoftheInitiativeofChangeinOdawara.DuringourstaythereweseparatelymetwithTutomuHataAdvi-sortotheIICAJandformerPrimeMinisterofJapanSomaYukikaHonoraryPresidentofIICAJToruHashimotoPresidentofIICAJandAdvisortotheJapanMizuhoFinancialGroupandD…     

海陆复合型地缘政治大国的战略选择与崛起成败

国际体系是一个复杂的利益交互系统,在系统中存在着众多战略层面的施动—反馈模式。地缘政治大国的安全战略选择决定了它与体系其他主要成员间的互动方式,互动方式决定了其可能面临的结构性压力,并最终影响到大国崛起的兴衰成败。通过本项研究可以发现:海陆复合型崛起大国的战略模式可以分为"区域陆权"战略、"全球海权"战略和"区域/全球海陆并举"战略。如果崛起大国尚未形成稳固的陆基周边环境,那么追求"区域陆权"战略是最优选择;如果拥有稳固陆基周边环境,那么追求"全球海权"战略是最优选择。而"海陆并举"战略因"同色竞争"原理,既可能同周边国家陷入"区域陆权"优势的安全困境,也可能同"全球海权"国家陷入争霸战争。因此,"海陆并举"战略往往容易造就一个反对自身崛起的海陆权力联姻。此外,追求单一的"差色互补"原理容易实现海陆功能分异背景下的战略结盟,进而影响大国崛起战略的操作实施。     

The EU and Libya and the Art of the Possible

In spite of geographic proximity and a number of shared interests, the European Union and Libya have a history of strained relations. The war of 2011 provided an opportunity for a fresh start, but so far neither side has been able to reap benefits from an entirely new political situation. Instead, Libya’s difficult internal situation has not only slowed down the process of rapprochement, but also increased EU concern. At a time when cooperation becomes a necessity rather than a choice, Libya is now down-spiralling into implosion at the levels of security, bureaucracy and economy, to the point where it cannot absorb the offers being made.     

抗击经济衰退：象和龙

由美国引发的经济危机已经席卷全球,无论是西方发达国家和地区如日本、欧盟,还是发展中国家如印度、中国,都已笼罩在全球经济衰退的阴影中。本文探讨作为正在崛起的亚洲大国——印度和中国,应采取怎样的措施遏制全球经济危机对本国经济造成更严重的伤害,以及印中两国如何借鉴对方在应对经济危机过程中采取的有效政策以尽快重新走上经济发展的正轨。     

Caught between Europe and the orient: Israel and the EMP

As the case of Transnistria illustrates, the politico-economic arrangements of de facto states are marked by a tendency to sacrifice the economy to political objectives. Despite non-recognition and limited local resources, these entities manage to make use of their ambiguous status and external support to sustain their claims to statehood. Yet, the priority of these claims over economic development, as well as strategies of survival in general can have unintended effects on unrecognised state-building projects, such as the emergence of a spin-off opposition or public disillusionment.     

Campaign Advertising and the Stimulation and Activation of the Authoritarian Personality

This research examines whether authoritarianism can be stimulated and activated by politicians. The traditional belief is that psychological traits are basically quasipermanent structures that consistently determine behavior, but newer research suggests that these traits can be stimulated. This research tests whether campaigns can stimulate traits with targeted messages. I do so by exposing subjects in an experiment to political television advertising that was designed to stimulate known correlates of authoritarianism, such as fear. The results show that authoritarianism is stimulated in treatment groups that watched advertising designed to invoke threat and the strong-father metaphor and the treatment effect is greater on conservatives. I also show that watching these commercials leads to an activation of authoritarianism that influences its predictive power over support for torture. This suggests that politicians can use emotional appeals to stimulate advantageous personality traits, and that these ads also influence the public's attitudes through activation.     

Globalization and the Reform of the International Financial and Monetary Systems

The outbreak of the global financial cdsis has called into question U.S.-style ＂financial capitalism.＂ Protectionism, currency multilateralism, decentralization of financial decision-making power and the nationalism of resources are gaining ground. The emerging economies are on the rise. The world power order is becoming multi-polar. Relations between countries are growing more diverse. The global governance model is undergoing fundamental changes. Global governance mechanisms, which are more representative and reflective of the diverse interests （such as the G20 and the UN climate change conference）, along with a reform of the international monetary system, will also help shape the future world order.     

China and the WTO: the theory and practice of compliance

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December2001, attention has turned to the issue of whether or not Chinais a responsible member of the organization and how compliantChina is with WTO rules. This article discusses the difficultiesfaced by China, as a responsible rising power, in trying toadjust itself to global trading norms. It examines the theoryof compliance in international relations from the perspectivesof neo-realism, liberal institutionalism and social constructivism,and then tests these perspectives by examining the mechanismsused to gauge China's compliance, both bilaterally by the UnitedStates and multilaterally through the Dispute Settlement Mechanismand the Transition Review Mechanism of the WTO. The result ismixed: different opinions exist as to how compliant China hasbeen but, on the whole, most monitors agree that China has triedhard to comply with WTO requirements in various areas, thoughmuch remains to be done. The most severe tests will come inthe next few years when China's financial and service sectorswill have to face fundamental changes to the way they operate.