Discursive Multilateralism: Global Benchmarks, Shame, and Learning in the ILO Labor Standards Monitoring Regime

A distinct feature of contemporary international relations is the proliferation of multilateral monitoring regimes. Despite the significance of this for the study of international law and organization, little empirical evaluation of the effectiveness of multilateral monitoring exists. This article examines the effectiveness of the supervisory system of the International Labor Organization (ILO), widely recognized as the prototypical model for all multilateral monitoring regimes. I examine the speech acts and rule-practices of the ILO regime within a hermeneutic/constructivist framework. This yields a set of heuristic hypotheses reflective of the "logic" that guides regime interactions with its member states. This asserts that "shame" influences member states to comply and respond positively to regime obligations. To test this, I statistically generate global benchmarks. These consist of world and regional averages in the behavioral patterns of member states. Quantitative findings demonstrate recidivist patterns of deviance by "global pariahs" set against a statistical background consisting of large-scale normative conformity on the part of ILO member states but configured around some regional variations. My analysis contends that global benchmarking reduces the risks of member state defection from core international labor standards and thereby promotes monitoring by learning or discursive multilateralism.     

International institutions and market expectations: Stock price responses to the WTO ruling on the 2002 U.S. steel tariffs

Many scholars assert that international institutions have little power to enforce laws, punish offenders, or force compliance. Others stress that international institutions are important actors, specifically in the regulation of international trade. In this paper, I show that the recent trade dispute over U.S. steel protection provides us with a critical case to evaluate the role of the World Trade Organization in settling trade disputes and specifically stabilizing expectations of market actors over future steel policy. I argue that stock prices can serve as an important tool in answering these questions. In an empirical analysis using daily steel stock prices, I find that during the 2002 WTO steel case, the WTO dispute mechanism helped market actors stabilize expectations of future trade policy.

新一届美国政府对外政策及影响前瞻笔谈

近年来,世界多极化趋势不断发展,美国主导的全球秩序开始显露坍缩征兆。然而,美国仍然保持着当今世界唯一的超级大国地位,其内政外交政策选择一直具有全球性影响。特朗普政府实施的"美国优先"政策对全球秩序造成了严重冲击,特别是对华发动极限施压性的"贸易战"和战略竞争,使中美关系发生严重倒退。特朗普政府随心所欲、极端强硬的执政风格,不仅招致很多国家的激烈批判和反对,在美国国内也引起了巨大争议。美国大选已经落下帷幕,尽管现任总统特朗普仍然没有承认和接受败选事实,但美国政府更迭已经无可逆转。新一届美国政府将采取什么样的对外政策?我们将如何应对美国因政府更迭而发生的政策调整?为加强对美国对外政策的前瞻研究,2020年11月5日,本刊编辑部联合吉林大学经济学院、现代国际关系研究所、东北亚研究院、东北亚研究中心、美国研究所等单位召开了"美国大选后的世界格局与中美关系"学术研讨会,10位专家做了会议发言。本刊选择其中3篇和另外1篇投稿摘要刊发,希望能够促进对美国新一届政府内政外交政策的前瞻性研究。     

美国文化价值观对美国外交的影响

自美国踏上国际舞台之日起,其外交就带有一个明显的特点,即价值观化。以天赋使命观、种族优越论、扩张意识、实用主义等为基本特征的美国文化隐形影响、指导、规范着美国对外政策的制定与实施,并在对外政策中得到充分的体现。同时,美国外交赤裸裸地强行输出美式民主、自由等价值观,这种观念和行为深刻影响着国际社会。     

American diplomatic realism: A tradition practised and preached by George F. Kennan

George F. Kennan's work remains pertinent to the contemporary debate over American foreign policy in which voices calling for a realistic conduct of American diplomacy have been faint. Kennan's thought contains a framework that can be used to examine critically the drift in American diplomacy from the realist assumptions held by the American Founding Fathers towards the liberal or Wilsonian school of international relations. Wilsonianism has seized the world view of contemporary American diplomats and statesmen, particularly during the Clinton administration. Kennan's analysis provides a salutary word in the debate over the course of post‐Cold War American foreign policy that takes Wilsonian assumptions for granted.     

American diplomatic realism: A tradition practised and preached by George F. Kennan

George F. Kennan's work remains pertinent to the contemporary debate over American foreign policy in which voices calling for a realistic conduct of American diplomacy have been faint. Kennan's thought contains a framework that can be used to examine critically the drift in American diplomacy from the realist assumptions held by the American Founding Fathers towards the liberal or Wilsonian school of international relations. Wilsonianism has seized the world view of contemporary American diplomats and statesmen, particularly during the Clinton administration. Kennan's analysis provides a salutary word in the debate over the course of post-Cold War American foreign policy that takes Wilsonian assumptions for granted.     

胁迫式外交:战略竞争时代美国对外战略的转型

以特朗普政府2017年《国家安全战略报告》和2018年《国防战略报告》为标志,世界进入美国启动的战略竞争新时期,地缘政治争夺和大国竞争再度成为世界政治的突出主题。美国重振和维护世界主导地位的目标未变,但"胁迫式外交"成为特朗普政府推行对外战略的常态,美国对外行为出现了冷战结束以来最为显著的变化,表现为重新激活战略军事威慑以压制战略军事竞争对手、以贸易热战和科技冷战方式打压战略经济竞争对手、以政治勒索方式逼盟友承担义务、以极限施压方式压制地区敌对国家、以退群和搅局方式阻挠多边外交。美国推行胁迫式外交与特朗普个人的执政风格相关,但根本性的原因是国际政治权力结构的重大变化和战略竞争时代的来临,推动美国对外权力输出发生了转型性变化。这也意味着美国对外权力输出方式正在发生从软实力向硬实力、从依赖制度优势向依赖实力优势的巨大偏转。美国所谓国际"领导力"正加速蜕变为维护美国特权的"胁迫力",美国权力输出的这种变化可能代表着未来美国外交发展的一种长期趋势。     

The Confluence of Domestic and International Interests: U.S. Policy Toward Cuba, 1998–2001

This article examines the confluence of forces at work to shape U.S. policy toward Cuba since the late 1990s. Our approach examines four key factors involved in policymaking toward Cuba in this period: (1) the entry of new interest groups into the Cuba policy process and an "entrepreneurial" Congress; (2) the executive's constitutionally based interests; (3) bureaucratic interests; and (4) pressure from outside the United States. We examine U.S.–Cuba policy by describing each determinant in isolation and then by looking at the dynamic interaction among them, showing how they are linked together. In doing so, we argue that an analysis including multiple factors better explains U.S. policy toward Cuba than one that focuses on a single factor such as the power of the Cuban-American community.     

Guiding Public Opinion on the Far Eastern Crisis, 1931–1941: The American State Department and Propaganda on the Sino–Japanese Conflict

From 1931 to 1941, when China and Japan were at undeclared war, China's propaganda was fairly well-circulated in America through her American friends who played a leading role in shaping American opinions on the Far Eastern crisis. But the United States State Department maintained a neutral stance toward the Sino–Japanese conflict until after 1939 and considered the pro-Chinese opinion not so much a national consensus for policy consideration as a partisan view propped up by propaganda groups. Thus, the State Department guarded its Asian policy from the pressure of propaganda activities and partisan opinions on the Asian conflict, whilst utilising them occasionally as tools of diplomacy toward China and Japan. This article examines the State Department's attitude toward public opinion and propaganda on the Far Eastern conflict from 1931 to 1941 to illustrate how American officials handled partisan opinions on a foreign crisis when most of the information on foreign policy was privately initiated and circulated.     

美国农业保护制度的政治经济学分析

美国是世界上农业最发达的国家之一。在世界农产品贸易中,长期以来一直是世界农产品最大的进出口国,其农产品贸易政策对世界农产品贸易制度具有主要的影响。近年来,美国的农业保护制度不断完善和加强,不但与其他国家多边农业谈判的自由化主张背道而驰,也是多哈农业谈判久谈不决的主要原因之一。从政治经济学的角度分析,在未来,其农业补贴政策会有所减弱。但不可能完全消除,国内农业政策改革难度很大,非传统的隐蔽性更强的限制性措施将成为农产品市场准入中的主要措施。因此,美国在多哈农业谈判中不可能做出太大的让步。     

The Making of the Inter-American Democratic Charter: A Case of Complex Multilateralism

This article examines the diplomatic process found in the making of the Inter-American Democratic Charter. Many components of this dynamic point to a significant bending of the "old" pattern of multilateralism associated with the Organization of American States (OAS). The normative purpose behind the charter centered on the collective right to democracy as opposed to the traditional defense of sovereignty. The pattern of involvement contained some parallels with initiatives considered the prototypes of a "new" multilateralism, namely the campaigns against antipersonnel land mines and for an International Criminal Court. That is to say it featured an intense style and a "bottom-up" diplomacy with extensive engagement by secondary states and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Notwithstanding these features, the multilateralism in the making of the Inter-American Charter is depicted as not simply "new" but complex. Stimulated by the 2000 political crisis located in that country, leadership on the charter came from Peru not a classic middle power. The United States was not the maker of the charter but neither was it an opponent or breaker of the initiative. The early burst of speed slowed when resistance appeared from a cluster of states. Serious splits appeared among NGOs involved with the charter process on a north/south basis. To nuance the claims of "new" multilateralism is not to discount the conceptual or (as witnessed by its use in the April 2002 crisis in Venezuela) operational significance of the charter. The argument made in this article, however, is that it was this hybrid nature of the initiative that contributed to its claims of innovation and measure of success.     

Gaiatsu and Japan's Foreign Aid: Rethinking theReactive–Proactive Debate

This article examines the role of the United States in Japan's foreign aid policy. The Japanese government often alters its course of action under U.S. pressure even if doing so would apparently undermine its own interests. Japan's unusual responsiveness to U.S. preferences appears counterintuitive given the fact that at least in the realm of foreign aid Japan's power clearly surpassed that of the United States. This article posits that Japan's responsiveness stems in large part from the asymmetry of interdependence between the two countries. After critically reviewing the existing literature, it conducts two case studies to examine the validity of the argument. The article concludes that the United States played a crucial role but Japan's responsiveness to American pressure reflects an act of will rather than a lack of coherent policy stemming from bureaucratic politics. The findings have important implications to the ongoing debate over whether Japan is a "reactive state."     

Leadership in the WTO: Brazil,India and the Doha development agenda

The Doha round of multilateral negotiations has witnessed the relocation of Southern powers towards the core of the World Trade Organization (WTO) decision-making structure. Brazil and India are the only developing countries that have participated consistently in all major ministerial phases of the Doha round between 2001 and 2008. Their consolidation as trading powers cannot be attributed solely to their status as emerging economies. Their projected legitimacy as representatives of the global South has operated as a catalyst in facilitating their relocation. In various phases of negotiations, however, Brazil and India have refrained from playing a proactive role in driving negotiations forward. Their defensive stance has raised questions about the two countries' prospects for systemic leadership in world trade. In explaining this condition, this article will argue that Brazilian and Indian trade diplomacy is consistently directed towards maintaining broad bases of followership. Brazil and India are disposed to exercise assertive leadership only when that accommodates the expectations and preferences of their followership in the global South. Their preoccupation with constantly reasserting their Third World image often renders blocking agreement the preferable strategy to avoid paying a high price in terms of legitimacy.     

The New U.S. Human Rights Policy: A Radical Departure

The United States, as the most powerful state and as the self-appointed champion of human rights, has a profound impact on the way human rights norms are interpreted and applied throughout the world. The human rights foreign policy of President George W. Bush can be distinguished from the policies of other administrations in three crucial respects: (1) In identifying the values that Americans can and should promote abroad, it avoids human rights terminology and scorns multilateral institutions, and instead looks to divine inspiration; (2) in place of well-recognized human rights norms, it uses a concept of "dignity" that is narrow and self-serving; and (3) it engages in "exceptional exceptionalism," continually holding others to standards that it does not apply to itself. This essay contends that the new U.S. human rights foreign policy drains human rights of its core meaning and limits its potential impact. Moreover, the United States lacks moral authority to act on human rights grounds as long as it fails to prioritize human rights explicitly and to uphold the same standards to which it holds other nations accountable.     

Policy networks and multiple lobbying strategies in EU trade policy-making. A Korean perspective

The EU trade policy has been a crucial matter of concern not only for the EU member states but also for the rest of the world as a whole. However, only a limited number of policy actors have been able to exercise effective power in the EU trade policy process on the basis of the formal and informal relations formed among core policy actors in policy networks. As a result, the interests of the European industrialists have been best served in the EUs trade policy relations with non-member countries. Consequently, Korean firms, as outsiders of the policy networks, have recognized the need to develop effective lobbying strategies as significant means to have greater influence on EU trade policy-making, so as to overcome the disadvantages existing in the policy process. In this regard, Korean firms need to develop multiple lobbying strategies by taking advantage of the various routes of EU trade lobbying. Otherwise, Korean firms will continue to experience difficulties in exploiting the benefits of the large European common market with a single currency.     

The Political Economy of Developing Country Antidumping Investigations against China

This article draws on industry-level data to analyze the political economy of the use of the antidumping statute by 10 less developed countries (LDCs) against China. Test results suggest that Chinese import competition is an important factor explaining the pattern of LDC antidumping initiation against China. Macroeconomic factors such as gross domestic product growth rate also play some role in influencing the pattern of LDC antidumping determination against China. Importantly, statistical analyses did not yield any evidence suggesting that China's membership in the World Trade Organization has disciplined developing countries' use of the antidumping policy. The paper conjectures that China's Most-Favored-Nation status under the World Trade Organization, the designation of China as a nonmarket economy in antidumping investigations until 2016, and the retaliatory incentives generated by the growing deflection of Chinese exports to developing country markets may have overwhelmed the institutional effect of the trade organization in shaping the pattern of LDC antidumping decision making toward China.     

Alliances,Trade Discrimination,and the Global Trade Regime

Although nondiscrimination is a central tenet of the global trade regime, discrimination was in fact common under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, particularly against developing countries. The latter have recently sought to end such discrimination through World Trade Organization rules: for example, the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) prohibited quota discrimination in this sector. I examine the ATC's impact on US discrimination, asking whether the ATC ended the US policy of favoring allies with generous textile and clothing quotas. I find that, while the United States favored allies before the ATC, this favoritism vanished in the post-ATC period. The ATC thus accomplished its goal of ending explicit textile and clothing discrimination. This result underscores the potential for multilateral rules to control trade discrimination and implies that popular theories of trade policy may be contingent on such rules.     

The Eisenhower Administration and Public Diplomacy in India: An Ambivalent Engagement, 1953–1960

The United States–India relationship was fraught with misapprehension and ideological disagreement during the 1950s. Public diplomacy provides a valuable context for examining these dynamics. This analysis assesses the planning, deployment, and reception of American public diplomacy to India under President Dwight Eisenhower, a period encompassing Washington’s 1954 alliance with Pakistan and economic aid to India in 1957–1958. Public diplomacy reflects the Administration’s difficulty in clarifying its interests in India. The rhetorical and moralising approach of India’s leadership, and their prominence in the global non-aligned movement, contributed greatly to this ambivalence. Public diplomacy planning highlights Washington’s difficulties in confronting India’s identity in world politics; it struggled to craft messages on racial attitudes, consumerism, and Communism, whilst Soviet public diplomacy gave strong competition throughout the period. At the same time, several aspects of American public diplomacy resonated with Indian audiences, indicating that there was the possibility of a closer American relationship with India had Washington taken a different high policy approach to the region.     

美国民粹主义新动向及其影响（英文）

Populism in the United States, with several trends in recent years, has brought about new risks to the country and the world. Combined with the "China threat," it heralds profound adjustments in Washington's foreign strategy and its China policy, with a tougher stance toward China becoming a "new normal" of the Trump administration to integrate its domestic policies and diplomacy.     

EU FTA negotiations with India, ASEAN and Korea: the question of fair labour standards

The EU sets considerable store by the need for its Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) now under negotiation with Asian countries to contain a sustainable development chapter with clear references to respect for the core ILO labour standards. While they reject the sanctions-based approach demanded by the European trade unions, they accept that some real enforcement mechanisms will be needed. Among Asian countries, Korea is most likely to accept some form of a social clause, while India and certainly some ASEAN countries strongly oppose it. This article explores the prospects for mutual agreement on this thorny issue at the bilateral level which, to date, has failed at the multilateral level.

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