中东变局与世界主要大国中东战略的调整——兼论中国的中东外交

中东地区历来是大国战略博弈的重点区域。自阿拉伯国家陷入群体性动荡以来,美国、欧洲、俄罗斯等大国或地区力量围绕中东变局纷纷进行政策与战略调整。美国中东战略调整的根本目标是既要避免类似伊拉克战争的深度卷入,又要保持对中东事务的主导权。欧盟尤其是法、英两国对中东变局的积极干预使欧洲对中东事务的影响明显增强,欧盟正力图确立统一的中东战略,但其内部分歧不容忽视。俄罗斯中东战略的核心特征是原则性与灵活性相结合的实用主义外交,并极力维护其地缘战略利益和能源利益。中国应进一步增强对中东战略地位的认识,冷静客观地认识中东变局对中国国际环境变化的影响,并在坚持原则的同时适度扩大对中东事务的参与。     

中东安全局势演变特征及其发展趋势

"伊斯兰国"极端组织已成为影响中东地区稳定的最大安全隐患,也门局势恶化也折射出中东安全局势混乱的一面,但这些并不反映当前中东局势的全部,很大程度上它是美国战略调整引发中东地缘政治格局重构以及中东变局导致中东局部动荡的延续。从全局看,随着埃及等早期"因变生乱"的转型国家正逐步向"乱后求治"过渡,中东变局总体上出现了逐渐趋稳的迹象。巴勒斯坦问题、伊朗核问题等传统热点问题也出现了新的发展。美国调整后的中东战略意图日趋明朗,构建一个由中东主要国家形成的互相制约、相对平衡的地区安全新架构的想法正逐渐浮出水面。未来一段时期,中东局势还将在全球和地区大势下继续盘整,该地区地缘政治关系也将随之继续做适应性调整,并最终形成一个相互制衡的新常态。     

拜登政府的以色列政策:谋求新的平衡

拜登政府执政以来，美国的以色列政策出现了值得关注的新变化。拜登政府开始调整之前对以色列过分偏袒的做法，使美以关系回到常态，有意维护与中东其他各方力量之间的平衡，安抚中东阿拉伯盟友；在地区层面，通过影响盟友们和友好国家，维持美国的主导地位；同时意欲与地缘战略对手伊朗重启谈判，通过重新签署伊核协议对其施加限制，从而对中东和亚太两大战略板块的战略资源进行重新配制，以服务于美国的全球战略。拜登政府的新以色列政策将对以色列的外部战略环境产生重大影响，以色列的回应、域内其他国家的反应以及域外大国的态度都将叠加在一起，成为未来中东局势中新的变量。     

奥巴马中东政策评析

奥巴马的中东政策经历了从理想到现实的过程,从是否维护美国国家利益的角度来看,奥巴马的中东政策减少了美国对中东的进一步资源投入和伤亡,有效配合了“亚太再平衡”战略的推进,主要方面是成功的;从奥巴马中东政策对地区和世界造成的客观影响来看,其政策则可以说是失败的.两个角度评估得出的结论并不相同,主要反映出美国在中东的利益变得更狭隘,并缺乏管控中东的能力和实力,同时也反映出美国与盟友的利益产生偏差及美国外交战略中的“内向性”增强.未来美国将继续在中东寻找既能保全自身利益,又能适时脱身的“平衡点”.     

美国反恐新政解析

面对伊斯兰国的强势进攻,美国最终从幕后走向前台,出台新政,希望"削弱并将其彻底摧毁"。美反恐新政具有广泛的综合性:实施以空袭为主的军事介入,将叙利亚危机嵌入反恐战争,组建国际反恐联盟,军事援助和人道主义援助并行。可以说,由于伊斯兰国的崛起,奥巴马政府的伊拉克政策出现颠覆性改变,经历从"撒手"到"重返"的转变。这其中既有美延续反恐、维护自身及盟友利益的需要,同时亦映射出美主导中东局势、保持领导力的实质。但奥巴马剩余任期只有两年,美不会大幅度调整中东政策,仅是从克制、收缩到进取、干预政策的小幅回摆。     

布什政府中东战略的得失

布什政府执政8年来，一改克林顿时期的中东战略，推行先发制人的主动进攻战略，导致美国深陷伊拉克战争泥潭难以自拔，还使整个中东及阿富汗局势动荡，伊朗核问题更将成为美国下届政府的负面遗产。然而，美国内的石油及军工利益集团却从布什政府中东战略中获得了巨大的经济利益，这也是布什政府对其中东战略始终不作调整的根本原因。     

奥巴马政府的全球战略重心东移

奥巴马上台两年来,将美国全球战略重心调整,转而全面东移,其主要动因：一是由于全球地缘政治和经济中心正从大西洋转向太平洋;二是亚洲新兴大国的快速崛起：三是亚太地区不仅是美国眼前复苏经济的依托,更是其未来贸易和投资大发展的基地：四是由于亚洲已成为传统安全与非传统安全的焦点地区。为了实现这个转移,美国从外交、经济和军事安全等各个方面做出了全面部署。然而,美国要完全实现这个转移并不容易,中东北非政治变局将迫使美国重新调整其中东政策：美俄基本矛盾和欧洲因素使美国对欧洲并不能完全放心;阿拉伯世界的政治动荡可能使美国面临新的更加严峻的战略和安全形势;美国内政治、经济、民意等因素也在制约其战略重心东移的实施。     

九一一事件后沙特与美国的关系

各自的利益需求使美国与沙特结成盟友。美国是沙特在阿拉伯世界以外最亲密的盟友 ,沙特则是美国在中东地区一根不可或缺的战略支柱。但双方在巴勒斯坦问题、文化意识形态、美国的驻军等问题上存在分歧。九一一事件强烈冲击了沙特与美国的关系 ,并在一些方面产生了消极影响。但从总体上看 ,多年的盟友关系使两国积淀了较为坚实的历史基础 ,在处理双边关系方面已形成一套比较成熟的机制 ;而且美国需要沙特的石油 ,沙特需要美国的保护。因此 ,沙特和美国的盟友关系在可预见的将来不会改变 ,两国关系仍有足够的前进动力 ,双方的利益诉求大于分歧和矛盾     

美国反恐新政策解析

面对恐怖主义极端势力的强势进攻,美国最终从幕后走向前台,出台新政,希望"削弱并彻底摧毁""在伊拉克和叙利亚的伊斯兰国"(ISIS,以下简称"伊斯兰国")。新政具有广泛的综合性,实施以空袭为主的军事介入,将叙利亚危机嵌入反恐战争,同时组建网络新反恐国际联盟,开展人道主义援助等。可以说,由于"伊斯兰国"的崛起,奥巴马政府对伊拉克政策出现颠覆性改变,经历了从"撒手"到"重返"的转变。这其中既有美延续反恐、维护自身及盟友利益的需要,同时亦映射出美主导中东局势、保持领导力的实质。但在奥巴马剩余任期不到两年的情况下,美国不会大幅度调整其中东政策,会出现从克制、收缩到进取、干预政策的小幅回摆。     

对当前中东变局的几点认识

以突尼斯“茉莉花革命”开端的中东变局，具有鲜明的互联网时代特征，正在进一步蔓延之中，或将发展成为第二次世界大战以来中东的第三次浪潮。经济欠发展与社会问题突出是变局的主要动力，西方大国的干预使局势更加复杂多变，伊斯兰教势力并非运动的主力，但在下一阶段可能乘势崛起并“劫持普世民主”，地区经济、政治秩序与地缘政治格局或将发生重要变化。美国外交中理想主义与现实主义相互交织，相互矛盾，美国根据形势的发展“适时”“适当”地推进中东“民主化”的动力依然强劲。当前的中东变局，还可以放到地中海文明视野下进行审视。     

Reassurance: A Strategic Basis of U.S. Support for Israel

This article argues that Israel experiences a unique perception of the perils of anarchy that drives it to a strategic preference for disproportionately offensive action against rivals and enemies. Actions taken pursuant to that doctrine have caused serious inconvenience to U.S. foreign policy in the Mideast for over four decades. This article argues that by reassuring Israel, both diplomatically and with arms sales, that the United States is committed to its survival, the United States has obtained significant measures of strategic restraint on Israel's part. That restraint has brought significant benefit to the United States as it seeks to guarantee regular access to the vital resources of the Middle East. This article provides examples of both successful reassurance and reassurance denied to illustrate the argument that U.S. support produces tangible strategic benefits for the United States.     

美国干涉与老挝1955年选举

根据1954年日内瓦会议协议,老挝于1955年将进行全民选举。美国将老挝视为在印度支那地区防范共产党势力发展的重要阵地。为使老挝新政府成为一个亲西方的反共政府,投入了大量的人力和物力。美国在将老挝纳入其冷战轨道的同时,也破坏了老挝的独立与发展。     

U.S. Foreign Policy in Latin America: Time for a Change

This paper addresses why neoliberal policies of the United States have failed to spur broad-based economic development, and why they have not consolidated stable liberal democracy in Latin America. The author argues that the United States must reevaluate its foreign policy in order to accomplish its goals and maintain its influence in the region. This will mean engaging more moderate leftist leaders in Latin America and adopting changes to its trade policy. Above all, the United States should not revert back to its unilateral interventionist policies of the past.     

美国民粹主义新动向及其影响（英文）

Populism in the United States, with several trends in recent years, has brought about new risks to the country and the world. Combined with the "China threat," it heralds profound adjustments in Washington's foreign strategy and its China policy, with a tougher stance toward China becoming a "new normal" of the Trump administration to integrate its domestic policies and diplomacy.     

Negotiating the EU–U.S. Open Aviation Area Agreement 2007 in the Context of Transatlantic Airline Regimes Since 1944

Between 1944 and 2002, the United States sought to create a competitive and commercially driven international civil aviation regime. It tried to peel away politically inspired regulations, which fragmented the marketplace, and deliver efficiencies and consumer benefits. In contrast with the American liberal tradition—albeit with limitations—the industry in Europe was over-regulated and largely based on subsidised state-owned carriers with international market quotas. Thus for many years Europe and the U.S. followed different paths; but political and economic dynamics conspired together in the 1980s and early 1990s to produce remarkable change in the European Community and, by 1997, there were the makings of a competitive and lightly regulated single market, which brought it close to U.S. practice. Since 2002, the United States has been less liberal in its airline policies; the EU has been more liberal. It would be an irony indeed if the great regime liberaliser since 1944 were now to become a force of regulatory conservatism that denied consummation to the vision of a transatlantic open aviation area that could be a magnet to draw in the rest of the world into a truly global commercial airline market.     

Why Not Invade North Korea? Threats, Language Games, and U.S. Foreign Policy

International relations theory has difficulty explaining how similar policies produce different outcomes. Iraq and North Korea have been identified as members of the "axis of evil" with weapons of mass destruction programs that threaten the United States. Yet in late 2002, the United States prepared to attack Iraq whereas it chose to negotiate with North Korea, even after North Korea admitted to a secret nuclear program in direct violation of its 1994 agreement with the United States. Moreover, a direct comparison with Iraq shows North Korea to possess the greater material capability to threaten the United States. I argue that a language-based constructivist approach can explain these differences in U.S. foreign policy where other theoretical approaches cannot. By examining the U.S. entanglement in intersected language games—the implementation of the 1994 Agreed Framework with North Korea and the enforcement of United Nations Resolutions in Iraq—it becomes possible to show how the United States could construct North Korea's nuclear program as a manageable threat that could be dealt with diplomatically.     

美日创业投资实质的探索与启示

创业投资对美国经济增长的促进作用是人所共知的。多年以来,各国学者和业界人士致力于研究美国的创业投资问题。比较美国和日本创业投资的实质可以看出,创业投资之所以在美国形成并得到良好的发展,不仅有物质层面的原因,还有精神层面的原因。即美国创业投资的形成与发展,是在创造文化引领下,由市场需求拉动的结果。美国独特的创造文化对高新技术及创业投资的形成与发展具有不可忽视的牵引与推动的作用;而日本的创业投资之所以未取得理想效果,是因为其依附型文化,只能使其专注于制造流程中的渐进的创新,而非产品的创新。日本长期以来银行主导型的融资模式也限制了创业投资的发展。因此,我国若要发展创业投资,重视创业投资对经济增长的促进作用,培育促进原始自主创新的创造文化已成为当务之急。     

美国国家安全委员会变迁探析

美国建立了世界上第一个国家安全委员会,历经67年世势风云的洗礼,美国国家安全委员会已成为美国处理所有国际事务的中心,作为美国国家安全事务的咨询与协调机构,它在美国国家安全决策过程乃至世界外交局势的演变中都持续发挥着重要的影响力。历经各任领导者对其地位与角色的不同定位,美国国家安全委员会的职能、制度、运行及决策程序在不断修改与调整中走向稳定与成熟。其机构和人员的设置既审时度势、灵活多样、顺应时代变化,又逐渐探索确立了富有特色的部际协调机制,将各法定成员、法定顾问、国家安全事务助理以及非法定成员有效地组织起来,通过形式各异的正式程序、非正式程序以及秘密程序的分析、评估与协调会议,为总统的国家安全事务决策提供必不可少的支持。美国国家安全委员会变迁与改革的每一步都伴随着法律及行政法令的颁行与修订,授权与监督,体现了法制先行的特点。美国国家安全委员会戏剧性的发展历程中积累的经验与教训,为中国建立不久的中央国家安全委员会提供了借鉴。     

Peripheral or Powerful? The European Union's Strategy to Combat the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Abstract

The European Union has since 2003 developed both a security and a Weapons of Mass Destruction strategy, and it has become the primary interlocutor of Iran in the dispute related to Iran's nuclear development. These are signs of significant policy progress. However, the fact that four years of nuclear diplomacy have brought few results invites a critical appraisal of EU strategy. This essay undertakes this appraisal, arguing that the EU is notably ambivalent regarding its underlying conception of international order. The EU wishes to be pluralist (in the tradition of sovereign equality), but is also anti-pluralist (in the liberal–democratic tradition). The essay lays out how the EU has coped with pressures for reform—arising notably from the United States—within the current international nuclear non-proliferation regime, and how this has made the EU problem apparent. The essay finally suggests that to salvage its policy of effective multilateralism the EU must acknowledge its anti-pluralist bias and promote a common transatlantic approach to nuclear non-proliferation.     

Comparing regional organisations in global multilateral institutions: ASEAN, the EU and the UN

Structural change brought about by the end of the Cold War and accelerated globalisation have transformed the global environment. A global governance complex is emerging, characterised by an ever-greater functional and regulatory role for multilateral organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and its associated agencies. The evolving global governance framework has created opportunities for regional organisations to participate as actors within the UN (and other multilateral institutions). This article compares the European Union (EU) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as actors within the UN network. It begins by extrapolating framework conditions for the emergence of EU and ASEAN actorness from the literature. The core argument of this article is that EU and ASEAN actorness is evolving in two succinct stages: Changes in the global environment create opportunities for the participation of regional organisations in global governance institutions, exposing representation and cohesion problems at the regional level. In response, ASEAN and the EU have initiated processes of institutional adaptation.