俄罗斯亚太战略的利益、合作方向与前景

进入新世纪,在俄罗斯的外交战略中亚太地区的地位在不断上升。俄罗斯大部分国土位于亚洲,所以在利用外交手段维护国家领土安全,并为本国东部地区的经济发展创造有利外部条件的同时,提升俄罗斯在亚太地区的影响力,是俄罗斯实施亚太战略的主要目标与利益所在。目前,俄罗斯与亚太地区的合作主要体现在能源、交通运输、粮食和安全保障等领域。但由于受俄罗斯东部地区的经济发展水平,以及俄罗斯参与亚太合作的矛盾心理,特别是与区域内各大国之间的关系等多方面因素的影响,俄罗斯与亚太关系的发展缺乏稳固的基础,进一步发展面临制约。     

从苏/俄政治转型看现代政党政治的发展趋势

俄/苏在特定的历史条件下建立了多党联合政权,又在特定的历史条件下走向了一党统制。但这条路终究没有走通。苏共随着前苏联的解体而走到其历史的尽头,俄共则随着俄罗斯多党制的确立而浴火重生———虽然处境艰难,却也不失为俄罗斯政坛的一支重要力量。苏/俄政党政治的演变说明,只有基于合法竞争的适应政治民主潮流的政党政治,才有生命力;政治权力的垄断不仅会侵犯作为权力所有者的人民的根本利益,而且对权力的垄断者也是绞索。     

俄罗斯加入世贸组织与我国对俄投资

俄罗斯加入WTO的谈判尽管仍存在困难，但迟早会正式成为WTO成员。俄罗斯加入WTO后必须遵守WTO规则要求，投资环境进一步趋好，扩大市场准入，将为我国提供难得的发展机遇。但俄罗斯加入WTO并不意味着对俄投资风险已完全消除，我国对俄投资仍将面临诸多挑战。特别是在当前俄罗斯开始重塑投资形象的新形势下，我国应合理调控对俄投资规模，优化对俄投资主体，强化对俄投资管理，构建对俄投资风险评估体系，努力实现对俄投资互利共赢。     

俄罗斯价格体制改革及其对中国的启示

俄罗斯在改革前是长期的计划价格体制,存在许多弊端,也进行过改革,但成效甚微。俄罗斯价格体制改革采取的是激进的一次性放开价格的方式,改革后出现了高通货膨胀与经济缩减,但并不能就此全面否定俄罗斯的价格体制改革,要分析其产生的历史原因。从总体上看,价格体制改革奠定了俄罗斯长期经济发展的制度基础。俄罗斯价格体制改革对中国具有启示意义,中国的价格体制改革应坚持走渐进式的改革道路,在某些方面要采取果断措施继续推进市场化方向的改革,在改革过程中要采取措施减少物价上涨的负面影响。     

American security policy and NATO's future

NATO remains the United States’ principal instrument for shaping the security environment in Europe. It acts as a long‐run hedge against a possible resurrected Russian threat to the continent and to dampen the prospects for the renationalization of military and security policies in Europe. The United States faces formidable challenges to ensure the viability of NATO after the Cold War. Washington must be prepared to engage in a grand balancing act on several fronts to perpetuate the Alliance. It must support NATO enlargement to move the Alliance's geopolitical center eastward, but not to territory that would practically indefensible in the event of a resurgent Russia. Out‐of‐area operations will preoccupy Alliance attention in the near‐future, but too great an appetite for undertaking peacekeeping missions might over time substantially erode the Alliance's ability to deter or withstand the political and military pressure from a resurgent Russia or major power or coalition on the outlying areas of the Eurasian landmass.     

俄罗斯的大国法治建设:现状、难题及发展趋势

俄罗斯正在积极建设具有俄罗斯特色的大国法治,建立强有力的国家权力,完善市场经济法律制度,重建收入分配制度,统一法治思想.由于俄罗斯的大国特性,无论是在法律制度上,还是在法治思想上,俄罗斯法治建设的难题还很多.当前"梅普组合"权力机制为俄罗斯法治建设的发展提供了契机,大国内部治理机制的法治化得到加强,与其他大国之间的经贸往来和制度建设不断扩大,新的理性而积极的法律意识有所增强.但俄罗斯要实现统一有效的大国法治目标并不容易,"梅普组合"政权面临着许多困难和挑战.     

当前俄罗斯的东亚政策研究

苏联解体后,俄罗斯的外交政策从向西方“一边倒”转为东西方平衡的“双头鹰外交”,东亚在其整体外交格局中的地位上升.俄罗斯东亚战略的主要目标是要成为东亚大国,其政策主要受到两方面因素的驱动和影响：一是基于对国际和地区均势的追求,二是出于本国平衡发展的需要,以及对自身面临威胁的认知.中俄关系是俄罗斯东亚政策的重心,同时它也积极发展与东亚其他行为体的关系.俄罗斯与东亚的关系在过去十多年里稳步提升,但也面临着俄远东地区开发困难重重、融入东亚经济空间进展缓慢、国内意见分歧等诸多挑战.在世界战略重心东移的背景下,在当前因乌克兰危机而使俄与欧美的地缘政治冲突激化的情势下,俄罗斯将会进一步加强其整体外交政策中的东亚维度.     

资源禀赋、创新经济与俄罗斯未来

1999～2008年,俄罗斯获得了连续10年的经济快速增长,GDP年均增幅达到了7%,已从容跻身于世界经济大国之列。然而,2008年10月之后的世界金融危机迅速改变了俄罗斯经济增长的上升势头,2009年GDP出现了7.9%负增长,俄罗斯成为此次危机的重灾区。危机前后,可谓冰火两重天。尽管2010年俄罗斯经济扭转了继续下滑的颓势,使全年GDP保持了3.8%的恢复性增长,但积极向上的势头已经遭到严重削弱,同金融危机之前"牛气冲天"的态势相比已经不可同日而语。俄罗斯经济走势发生逆转的因素很多,但根本原因就在于,立足于资源禀赋优势参与国际分工的发展模式,导致其经济增长对外部市场的严重依赖,当国际原材料价格迅速下跌时,没有替代承接产业填补价格调整后所造成的损失。另外,在转轨后的20年发展中,除资源产业获得发展壮大,保持一枝独秀外,其他产业没有获得与之同步发展,尤其是代表一国综合国力的制造业,由于设备及工艺落后无法生产具有竞争力的好产品,不得不在危机条件下实现进口替代。因此,对俄罗斯来说,在未来的经济发展中在大力发展资源品出口的同时,应该重视高新技术产业和创新经济与之同步发展,使整个国民经济体系各部门得到均衡发展。时至2012年,普京再度荣登总统之位,这使得俄罗斯经济政策的连续性得到保障,由此,人们有理由相信,在其带领下俄罗斯有能力完成旨在发展创新经济为主题的"俄罗斯2020年前发展规划"。     

Russia’s Neorevisionist Challenge to the Liberal International Order

Abstract

A conventional opinion is that Russia is trying to destroy the liberal international order. Russia indeed defies it, but also justifies its foreign policy with the liberal order’s normative frameworks and reproaches the West for not standing up to these norms. Moreover, Moscow does not present any alternative vision. Russia complains about the internal contradictions of the liberal order: sovereignty vs. intervention, pluralism vs. universality, US hegemony vs. equality and democracy, although it also exploits these contradictions. In fact Russia demands an adjustment of the liberal order rather than its eradication and should, therefore, be classified as a neorevisionist power. Two elements underlie Russia’s at times aggressive foreign policy conduct. The first one, its feeling of being ill-accommodated in the present order, predefines the direction of the policy. The second, the prioritisation of foreign policy over domestic reforms, explains the intensity of Russian discontent and its occasional aggressive manifestations. Russia’s domestic consensus regarding its foreign policy, including views on the liberal international order, facilitates this aggressiveness. Three policy conclusions can be drawn: acknowledging that Russia uses the inherent contradictions of the liberal international order opens up possibilities for dialogue and an eventual overcoming of the crisis; the survival and strengthening of the liberal order depends on its embrace of all major players, including Russia, and hence, the need for some adjustments to the order itself; and finally such adjustments presuppose Russia’s readiness to shoulder responsibility for the (reformed) liberal international order.     

战争和革命对20世纪初俄国货币体系的影响

俄国是一个十分好战的国家，在18世纪初成为了欧洲强国之后，为了维持它的强国地位，俄国坚持对外扩张的政策，连年战事不断。受国家落后的经济状况和巨额战争经费所累，俄国货币体系混乱不堪。进入20世纪，俄国经历了日俄战争、1905年革命和第一次世界大战，受战争影响俄国的货币体系几乎陷入瘫痪的状态。     

Cultural Challenges to Democratization in Russia

Three historical forces having shaped Russia—the Land, the Church, and the West. Fifteen years after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia remains the largest country on earth, with geopolitical interests in virtually every nation on the Eurasian continent and a fast-growing economy. The Russian Orthodox Church has resumed its place at the center of Russian culture, a culture that must be considered when assessing Russia's prospects for democratization. Likewise, Russians’ understanding of the West and democracy often suffers from misapprehensions that must be overcome in order for it to be attractive to Russia to move toward its own form of democracy. For U.S.-Russian differences today are primarily cultural, not ideological.     

‘Weak ally’ or ‘strong enemy?’: Japan in the eyes of Russian diplomats and military agents, 1900-1907

Abstract

At the dawn of the twentieth century, ignorance towards the growing military power of Japan led Imperial Russia to her unexpected and decisive loss of the war of 1904–1905. Just ten years earlier in 1895, Japan was almost half-robbed of the spoils of her victory over China by the Western Powers (including Russia), which insisted on revising the Treaty of Shimonoseki. The Boxer Rebellion of 1899–1901 stopped this confrontation and turned Japan and Russia into allies for a short time: Russian and Japanese soldiers fought together against the Chinese, constituting the two largest units among the five allied troops with Russians playing the leading role on the battlefield and the Japanese being their loyal deputy (as it was viewed by Russian media of the time). All these circumstances led Russia to underestimate the Japanese army in the following years. However, the Russo-Japanese War itself changed that attitude, turning it into a sort of ‘a-next-war-to-be-hysteria’ among the Russian officials who served in Japan after the war. The reports by Russian military agents and diplomats from special collections in the Hoover Institution of War, Columbia University, and other archives used in this paper show us that despite being their government's only ‘eyes’ watching the Orient, sometimes those eyes were ‘blinded’ by the loss in the recent war and by their own experiences. One major reason for this was that many Russian diplomats, military agents and spies had long been serving in the Far East, and for some of them the transformation of Japan from ‘weak ally’ to ‘strong enemy’ status happened so swiftly, they came to overestimate this new ‘peril.’ Another problem was Japanese language skill. In the same way that Russia could not properly predict the growing power of Japan before 1904, she wanted after the war to obtain all possible information about her neighbor and, thus, paid special attention to educating a new generation of oriental specialists.     

俄日两国“北方四岛”领土纠纷问题的博弈分析

博弈论和国家利益等相关理论对于研究俄日两国"北方四岛"领土纠纷问题,有较强的解释力。日本不会放弃对"北方四岛"的索要,而俄罗斯也不会轻易归还或部分归还"北方四岛",甚至必要时会加强在"北方四岛"乃至远东地区的军力部署。俄日两国在资本和自然资源方面分别具有不同的比较优势,在博弈模型的纳什均衡中:俄罗斯选择"据守",日本选择"索要,合作"。"北方四岛"问题将会变得长期化。该领土问题的解决,将取决于未来国际政治经济形势,取决于俄日两国彼此之间权力的消长,取决于两国之间的新的博弈均衡。     

低碳经济背景下俄罗斯能源效率问题探析

低碳经济成为21世纪全球经济发展的一个重要趋势,这一趋势对于经济全球化中的各国能源效率提出了严峻挑战。俄罗斯既是能源出口大国,又是能源消耗大国。高耗能在推动俄罗斯经济快速增长的同时,也带来了诸多环境问题。因此,俄罗斯须在复杂的国际和国内政治经济环境中建设性地参与应对气候变化,在节能减排、提高能效和技术创新等方面,做好向低碳经济转型的准备。     

Military professionalism in post‐communist Hungary and Poland: An analysis and assessment

Abstract

This article discusses Russian perceptions of and attitudes toward the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia has historically disliked and mistrusted NATO, seeing it as the primary threat to its international aspirations; in practice Russia pursues a dual policy. Its harsh condemnation of NATO has not stopped it from cooperating in selected areas of mutual interest. The most important among them is support for NATO's military operations in Afghanistan. The recent rejuvenation of relations between the west and Moscow is known as the strategic ‘reset’, meaning a return to diplomatic contacts and limited cooperation regardless of disagreements over the invasion of Georgia and Moscow's other recent international transgressions. The reset in NATO–Russia relations has only tactical significance, however. Cooperation will take place on a limited basis, but a genuine reset in mutual relations must wait for a reset in Russia's political and strategic priorities.     

中俄经贸合作潜力及其推进战略

最近10年来,中国和俄罗斯之间的政治关系一步接一步地迈上新台阶,两国间的经贸关系却相对落后于政治关系,中俄这两个世界最大邻国的合作潜力远没有发挥出来。自普京上台以来,俄罗斯国内外形势都发生了一些变化。目前,一个蓬勃发展、潜力巨大的俄罗斯市场已呈现在了我们面前,我们必须认清形势、抓住机遇,进一步推进中俄经贸合作。     

Counterterrorism in an Era of Great Power Politics

How should the United States recalibrate its counterterrorism policy for an era of great power competition? With the end of unipolarity, the United States cannot fight terrorists and compete with Russia and China with equal energy, but must instead make hard choices about its priorities and resources. Among those hard choices are what to do with the web of counterterrorism partnerships with other governments that have formed in the post- 9/11 era. This article proposes three broad principles—linkages, license, and legitimacy—that the United States can use to evaluate its policy and these partnerships, with the aim of recasting U.S. counterterrorism policy for an era of great power competition.     

Is Russia Succeeding in Central Asia?

On a number of recent occasions, the top Russian leadership has expressed its special interest in the affairs of former Soviet republics, including the assertion that Russia has a “privileged” relationship with these now independent states.¹ Is this a claim of accomplished fact, of future intention, or perhaps an empty expression of nostalgia for lost status? As we see it, the record of Russian actions in the largest group of these states—the five of Central Asia—allows us to exclude the first and question whether the second is realizable. Russia must contend with the aspirations of those states themselves, as well as the determined interests of China and, to a lesser extent, the West.     

俄罗斯税权划分法律制度评介——兼谈对我国分税制改革的启示

分税制是现代国家财政分权的核心内容。俄罗斯分税制改革经历了一个漫长曲折的过程,最终建立了与其政权结构相符的三级税权划分模式,形成了较为成熟的财政分权体制。但是这一体制在俄联邦与其主体的税权划分、地方自治机关的税收权限及各级政府财权和事权关系的确定和协调上仍存在不足。俄罗斯分税制确立过程中遇到的问题及其教训,可以为我国的分税制改革提供借鉴。     

面对21世纪中俄经贸合作问题的思考

叶利钦时期．中俄两国构建的战略协作伙伴关系．较多地体现在政治、军事和外交方面。经贸合作是个薄弱领域。普京执政后。对华关系的基本框架不会发生大的变化。但考虑到普京在摆脱经济危机和恢复俄罗斯强国地位方面。有着强烈的危机感和迫切感．因此、他的对华政策将具有务实性和转向以经济利益为中心的特点。近年来．两国经贸关系明显落后于政治关系。长期发展下去．有可能影响和削弱中俄政治关系的发展。进入２１世纪之际。中俄加强经贸合作．不仅有利于中国经济实现可持续增长和俄经济的复苏、而且还可以进一步巩固和发展两国的政治关系。当前。为把中俄经贸合作推上一个新的高度,应采取一些新的思路和对策：（一）要统一认识．即认识到中俄经贸关系落后于政治关系是客观存在的事实。有鉴于此．才需要我们将两国经贸合作推向一个新水平;（二）要有一个发展双边经贸合作的长期战略规划;（三）要上大项目：（四）加强对俄高科技合作．如在哈尔滨市与俄共建“中俄高新技术合作中心”; （五）大力研究与认真落实省、州合作、鼓励并推动地方政府发展区域合作。如吸引俄资本与技术参与我国西部大开发．尤其应将西伯利亚与远东地区作为区域合作的重点。特别应指出的是：没有我方与俄远东地区融洽的政治