U.S. responses to the Tiananmen and Kwangju incidents: American relations with China and Korea

This article focuses upon American relations with China and Korea through a comparative exploration of U.S. responses to the 1989 Tiananmen and 1980 Kwangju incidents. The thesis contends that U.S. policy towards both countries was founded primarily upon security and economic interests and was often obscured by a lack of understanding of these nations’ internal affairs, history, and culture. Although these factors exist in U.S. relations with the two countries, the United States places greater importance upon China than Korea, a situation that does not necessarily benefit Americans.     

U.S. hegemony and Southeast Asia

The United States has exerted a major influence on Southeast Asia, especially since World War II. As both a promoter of neoliberal reform and as the key strategic actor in the wider East Asian region, the impact of U.S. power has been immense. But both the Asian economic crisis and its aftermath, and the more recent “war on terror,” have highlighted the contradictory impact of evolving U.S. foreign policy and intervention in the region. At both an elite and a mass level there is evidence of resentment about, and hostility toward, U.S. policy and its perceived negative effects. This article outlines how U.S. foreign policy has impacted the region in the economic, political, and security spheres, and argues that not only has it frequently not achieved its goals, but it may in fact be undermining both America's long-term hegemonic position in the region and any prospects for political liberalization.     

After neoliberal globalization

This article traces the “securitization” of U.S. foreign economic policy in the administration of George W. Bush. It does so with reference to U.S. economic policy in East and Southeast Asia. It argues that in the context of U.S. economic and military preponderance in the world order, the United States has been unable to resist the temptation to link foreign economic and security policy. While there was evidence of the securitization of economic globalization in U.S. policy from day one of the Bush administration, it was 9/11 that firmed up this trend. For the key members of the Bush foreign policy team, globalization is now seen not simply in neoliberal economic terms, but also through the lenses of the national security agenda of the United States. Economic globalization is now not only a benefit but also a “security problem.” The attacks on 9/11 offered the opportunity for what we might call the “unilateralist-idealists” in the Bush administration, to set in train their project for a post-sovereign approach to U.S. foreign policy.     

Trade,policy, and Korea-United States relations

Trade friction in recent years between Korea and the United States has imperiled a century of friendship and threatens to undo strong ties established since 1945. Interest therefore focuses on reasons for friction and policies to ameliorate friction. The article examines Korea’s trade and payments, U.S. and Korean trade policies, and multilateral and bilateral policy options.     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

Cognitive Images and Support for International Economic Agreements with the United States Among Mexican Citizens

A 1995 survey shows that Mexican citizens depend on their cognitive and affective orientations toward the United States in forming opinions about economic agreements between the two countries. The degree to which respondents utilized general feelings toward the United States rather than images of the United States varies by educational level and across the two agreements that were examined, NAFTA and the Clinton economic stabilization package of 1995. Whether respondents utilized an image of U.S. economic imperialism or of racial discrimination against people of Mexican origin in forming their opinions also depends on the level of education attained and on the policy domain of the agreement. The cognitive processes respondents utilized to form opinions about these economic agreements also differ across educational levels and policy domains. The findings have important implications for the capacity of Mexican elites to mobilize support for agreements with the United States and more generally for U.S.-Mexican relations.     

作为软实力资源的和平队重受美国政府重视

2011年是美国和平队成立的第50个年头。现任总统奥巴马在2008年的总统竞选中提出将摈弃小布什时代的单边主义,更加重视多边合作,并主张在美国领导世界时,不仅要应用硬实力,而且还应更加重视对软实力的应用。奥巴马总统上任后,大幅增加和平队的预算,并许诺在2011年把和平队的人数翻一番。奥巴马对和平队的鲜明态度,标志着美国政府开始重新重视和平队作为软实力资源在美国外交中的作用。     

U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy in the Northeast Asian region during the cold war: The South Korean case

In over forty years of relations with the United States, South Korean decision-makers have had plenty of time to estimate the costs and benefits of acquiring nuclear weapons. The puzzle becomes why South Korea did not develop an operational nuclear capability, given the North Korea threat, the weakening of the U.S. guarantee, a vibrant economy, and an advanced nuclear manufacturing base. This case provides proof that U.S. rewards and threats significantly affect Third World states' nuclear decision-making and that the United States has greater influence with smaller and more vulnerable states than with larger and more technologically advanced states.     

The U.S.-Korea conflict over rice liberalization: A Korean perspective

This article argues that Korea should not completely liberalize its rice market. The argument begins from the issue of food-security policy to the contradiction between self-sufficiency and the comparative advantage of the importance of agricultural protection, in light of advanced industrialized nations’ heavy subsidies of their agricultural commodities, including rice, and implicit and explicit trade barriers on Korean exports. The argument emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency policy for rice in Korea, thus recommending not complete but partial liberalization of the agricultural market, as a condition for Korea’s own self-interest. The argument also emphasizes the importance of a diversified foreign and economic policy for Korea, and thus of forming future security relations with other nations besides the United States.     

俄罗斯与美欧关系变化及对中国的影响

2014年初乌克兰危机爆发后,俄罗斯与美欧关系降到冷战结束后的最低点。但是,具有战略忍耐力的俄罗斯调整对外政策,先是在叙利亚战场打开局面,接着在2019年与美欧的关系也出现缓和。俄美领导人举行会晤,两国外长互访,两国开始就是否延长《新削减战略武器条约》进行谈判。同时,俄美在军备竞赛、地区冲突、人文限制等领域的争斗依旧激烈。随着2020年美国总统大选临近,"通俄门"阴影是否可能再度影响俄美关系,存在较大的不确定性。俄与欧盟关系相对来说比较稳定,双方都有改善关系、加强合作的愿望。乌克兰问题是影响俄欧关系的重要因素之一,2019年乌克兰总统选举后乌俄关系出现某些松动与对话端倪,这将使俄欧关系在2020年继续朝着缓和与合作的方向发展。美国对俄政策调整对俄中关系也许会产生某种影响,但是对整个俄中关系不会发生大的作用。俄乌关系打破僵局、俄欧加强合作则符合中国的立场和利益,中国乐观其成。     

如何看待美国的软实力

约瑟夫·奈1990年提出"软实力"的概念是旨在回应盛行其时的"美国衰落论"。近年来,随着世界上反美情绪的日益高涨,又出现了"美国软实力衰落论"。实际上,美国软实力的各个组成部分,如美国在科技、教育、人口方面的竞争力,以及在思想、规范和制度安排方面的影响力,均未衰落。真正影响美国软实力的因素是美国民众的情绪和国内分歧。     

The Atlantic economy after German unification: Cooperation or the rise of ‘Fortress Europe’

With the end of the cold war and the weakening of the security bond between Europe and the United States, economic relations assume increasing importance. As Europe's dominant economic power, Germany has a central role in the management of the trans‐Atlantic economy. This analysis of economic relations between Germany and the United States shows that whilst investment flows between the two economies suggest common interests and mutual dependence, the structure of German and American trade reveals a strong potential for conflict. Moreover, the experience of the 1980s suggests that economic ties between Germany and the United States are not sufficiently intense to guarantee unconditional cooperation in the management of the Atlantic economy. Divergence in macroeconomic policy has inevitably led to tensions over trade, exchange rates and interest rates. Unless this tendency is checked, the result will be the emergence of ‘Fortress Europe’ with a heightened potential for conflict with the United States.     

U.S.-China relations in the post-cold war period: A Chinese perspective

After the collapse of the Soviet Union the anti-Soviet rationale for U.S.-China ties was exhausted. Today, both countries are trying to define the new foundation and intrinsic value of their long-term relationship in the post-cold war era. Although human rights, trade, and weapons proliferation issues were major obstacles to the improvement of bilateral relations, recent developments have shown that by making mutual concessions and showing good will, the PRC and the United States can avert confrontation and build a constructive relationship. He was a visiting scholar at Stanford University between 1993 and 1994.     

The Personal Is Political: The Cuban Ethnic Electoral Policy Cycle

This article documents a U.S. Cuban foreign policy cycle that operated in tandem with the presidential electoral cycle between 1992 and 2004. During these post–Cold War years, when Cuba posed no threat to U.S. national security, influential, well-organized Cuban Americans leveraged political contributions and votes to tighten the embargo on travel and trade, especially at the personal level. U.S. presidential candidates, most notably incumbent presidents seeking re-election, responded to their demands with discretionary powers of office. When presidential candidates supported policies that made good electoral sense but conflicted with concerns of state, they subsequently reversed or left unimplemented Cuba initiatives. After describing the logic behind an ethnic electoral policy cycle and U.S. personal embargo policy between 1992 and 2004, this article examines Cuban American voter participation, political and policy preferences, lobbying, political contributions, and the relationship between the ethnic policy and presidential election cycles.     

Geopolitics,Ethnic Conflicts along the Border,and Chinese Foreign Policy Changes toward Myanmar

Ever since Myanmar reoriented its foreign policy as a result of its transition to democratic rule in 2010, it has significantly improved its relations with the West, particularly the United States. Amid heightened geostrategic competition between the U.S. and China, how can we understand the Chinese government’s changing approaches to Myanmar, where China’s strategic and economic interests face unprecedented pressure? This article examines those changes in the context of the Chinese government’s response to three militarized ethnic conflicts along its border with Myanmar before and after Myanmar’s foreign policy reorientation. Drawing evidence from Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs statements and Chinese media coverage of the 2009 and 2015 Kokang conflicts and the 2011-2013 Kachin conflict, the article argues that combined geopolitical changes and domestic nationalist signaling explain the variations of China’s foreign policy approaches to Myanmar. The article thus contributes to ongoing interest in China’s foreign policy approaches to Southeast Asia in the wake of geostrategic competition between China and the United States.     

The legacy of the Korean War: Impact on U.S.-Taiwan relations

If there had not been a Korean War, the Chinese Communists would probably have invaded Taiwan in 1950. After the outbreak of the Korean War, the United States began to reverse its hands-off policy toward the Chinese Nationalists on Taiwan. The Korean War first compelled the United States to grant military aid to Taiwan and then put the island under U.S. protection. The war forestalled the deterioration of the ROC’s international status, but the legal status of Taiwan became undetermined in the eyes of U.S. policymakers. U.S. economic aid prevented Taiwan from sliding into an economic depression in the 1950s, and greatly contributed to the island’s later economic takeoff. He is the author ofThe Taiwan Security Triangle (Taipei: Laureate Publishing Company, 1989).     

美国与巴基斯坦关系的改善及其制约因素

冷战后,巴基斯坦在美国外交中的战略地位明显下降,特朗普上台后更是重印轻巴,推出了高度重视印度的南亚战略和印太战略,对巴基斯坦则实行极限施压政策以逼其加大反恐力度。美国的政策变化引起了巴基斯坦政府和民众的不满与抵制,两国间出现激烈的外交纷争,美巴关系陷入僵局。然而,巴基斯坦在美国的阿富汗战争和外交战略中处于不可忽视的地位,并且巴基斯坦是具有一定的对美反制能力的地区强国,特朗普政府在更为重要的阿富汗和谈问题上需要得到巴基斯坦的帮助。在权衡利弊后,特朗普政府调整对巴基斯坦政策,从以压促变调整为拉拢利用,美巴关系随之从高度紧张走向逐渐缓和。然而,美巴在短期利益和长远战略上都存在难以弥合的矛盾和分歧,双边关系发展缺乏坚实的合作基础和长远计划,两国在主要的共同利益——阿富汗政治和解方面存在目标和利益差异。此外,美印关系不断提升,使美巴双边关系的进一步发展困难重重。美国不愿放弃在巴基斯坦及邻近地区的战略利益,短期内会维持美巴合作,但从长远看,众多挑战和制约因素使两国关系存在较大的不确定性。美巴关系的走向不仅影响到南亚局势,还会冲击到我国的周边安全、中巴关系的发展以及"一带一路"倡议的推进,应当密切关注。     

关系正常化前夕的中美资产要求问题谈判

《上海公报》发表后,美国政府着手推动中美双边贸易关系的发展,资产要求问题遂成为其优先寻求解决的议题。中美两国围绕资产要求问题的谈判经历了明显的起伏。在尼克松第二任期的后期和福特任期内,由于美国政府始终未能做出实质性努力以实现中美关系正常化,它试图依靠双边经贸关系的进展来显示两国间紧密联系的做法无法获得中方的认同,所以导致中美双方关于资产要求问题的谈判未获成功。     

Economic Interdependence and Security on the Korean Peninsula: The Impact of North Korean Special Economic Zones

Abstract

Given North Korea’s desire to maintain nuclear weapons—and barring its unexpected collapse—how can the US and its allies establish and maintain a peaceful Northeast Asia? Current US policy alternatives do not offer an effective means for removing North Korean nuclear weapons without creating many more serious problems that jeopardize a stable future for Northeast Asia. However, by engaging in foreign direct investment (FDI) through North Korea’s special economic zones, the United States and other nations can engage North Koreans at all levels of society and build a future environment of cooperation and stability. Such a long-term engagement policy will prove more successful than isolation, sanctions, or military force, and will bolster regional actors’ efforts to develop additional stability-inducing policies.     

特朗普时期美朝关系变化轨迹与未来走向

特朗普就任美国总统以来,美朝关系经历了对抗与危机时期、缓和与蜜月时期以及僵持时期三个阶段。在对抗与危机时期,美国对朝采取经济制裁、军事演习等极限施压举措;在缓和与蜜月时期,美国对朝采取首脑峰会、工作磋商的接触政策;在僵持时期,美国对朝"谈压并举"。新冠肺炎疫情也没有给美朝关系改善提供机会之窗。而贯穿始终的是美国对朝制裁毫不放松。特朗普本人及其幕僚对奥巴马政府的对朝政策十分不满,积极应对突飞猛进的朝鲜核导技术,掌握在东北亚地缘战略竞争中的主导权。这成为特朗普政府对朝政策的动因。特朗普政府对朝政策推动了无核化谈判的展开和朝鲜半岛局势的缓和,但美朝无核化谈判依然陷入梗阻。