我国离婚率变动趋势及离婚态人群特征分析

从概念辨识入手,利用权威数据,描述近几十年我国离婚率和离婚态的变动趋势及水平。研究发现:我国的离婚率持续增长,超过日本与韩国;因年轻人口总量减少,可结婚人的比例下降,离婚结婚比持续上升。数据分析显示,1982年以来,我国离婚态占比单调上升:就人群特征而言,35-49岁年龄组、男性、中等教育程度人群(1990年除外)、商业服务人员和办事人员(1990年除外)离婚态占比最高,女性的离婚态占比较之男性上升趋势更为明显;就地域分布而言,各省处于离婚态人群的占比呈西高东低、北高南低趋势,东北地区及西部省区城市人群离婚态占比最高。离婚率和离婚态的持续攀升是多重制度、城镇化与市场化结构、家庭与个体特质等因素综合作用的结果。离婚不仅透视出家庭的不稳定性,损害(部分)家庭成员福祉,而且可能引发更大范围的负面效应。在尊重当事人意愿的前提下,必须从源头、过程和后果上加强对离婚行为的社会治理,减少不必要的离婚现象。     

Fighting for relevance: Economic intelligence and special operations executive in Spain, 1943–1945

This article examines the work of the Special Operations Executive (SOE) in Spain during the latter part of the Second World War. Unlike SOE's broad mandate to sow dissent and disarray in occupied countries, in Spain agents were forbidden from any involvement in direct action and sabotage. Diplomatic concerns, namely the maintenance of Spanish neutrality in the war, overrode all other strategic issues in Iberia. SOE agents and leaders in Madrid, therefore, attempted to create a different role for themselves. Drawing on files released in the Public Record Office in 1998, the article highlights SOE's limited success in the effort to establish for itself a part in the Allied strategic and diplomatic campaign against German wolfram smuggling. Success proved fleeting, however, and SOE's ultimate failure, in the face of hostility from the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), to prove its usefulness beyond the wolfram campaign, would lead to its withdrawal from Spain. The story of the SOE in Spain represents, on a small scale, the failure of the organization to find a niche in the British intelligence community after the Second World War.     

Democracy and Security in the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood? Assessing the ENP in Georgia,Moldova, and Ukraine

This article explores the European Union’s (EU) democratic and security objectives in the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) toward three post-Soviet states: Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. By discussing the ENP’s objectives, this study concludes the following: first, despite long-term ENP democracy promotion, there have been very limited democratic developments in the partner states between 2005 and 2014; second, security challenges remain in partner states in the breakaway regions in Transnistria in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk in Ukraine. Therefore, EU’s Kantian view of security through democracy has failed, and its ambition to create a ring of Eastern friends has not led to improved relations in the Eastern neighborhood. On the contrary, the EU’s push eastward has instead intensified insecurity in its partner states due to limited democratization.     

Religion and Political Action in Postcommunist Europe

Patterns of political identification in postcommunist Europe are still weakly formed. The churches, however, command high levels of confidence, in sharp contrast to political parties. Representative surveys in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Ukraine in late 1997 and early 1998 indicate high levels of confidence in the churches in three of these nations, but not in the Czech Republic for reasons that appear connected to its forced conversion to Catholicism. The religious, as in other countries, are disproportionately female, but attenders in postcommunist Europe are not more likely to be elderly or resident in the countryside. There was little difference between church attenders and national populations in attitudes to the market, NATO membership, or the current government; there were rather larger differences between the countries, with Bulgarians the most favourable to the market, NATO and pro-market parties, and Ukrainians the least favourable. A multiple regression analysis found that church attendance of itself had little effect on attitudes or party preferences in either the Czech Republic or Slovakia; it did, however, increase support for the market, for joining NATO and for pro-market parties in Bulgaria and Ukraine. The relatively modest effects of overt religiosity are likely to be helpful to the formation of a democratic political culture, although account must also be taken of a strong association between the Muslim minorities in these countries and the political parties that seek to represent their interests.     

Democratization,civil society,and women's organizing in post-revolutionary Mozambique and Nicaragua

Mozambique and Nicaragua have each experienced a transition from a Marxist–Leninist, revolutionary state to a liberal–democratic–capitalist, multi-party state in the 1990s. However, in Mozambique, the historic party of the revolution, FRELIMO, remains the party in power, whil in Nicaragua the Sandinistas have been the opposition party since 1990. What impact have these transitions had on democracy, civil society, and the nature of women's organizing in the post-revolutionary period in each country? This article offers a critical examination of the notions of “democratization” and “civil society” by assessing the gains and losses that each country has experienced in terms of political, economic, and participatory democracy in the post-revolutionary period. Then, using the example of contemporary women's movements and current constructions of “feminism” emerging in each country, this article attempts to show the potential of autonomous women's organizing in civil society today.     

Prejudice and paranoia: a comparative study of antisemitism and Sinophobia in turn-of-the-century Britain

Renshaw examines in comparative terms two of the most virulent manifestations of racial prejudice in early twentieth-century British society. The language of antisemitism and Sinophobia in the Edwardian period and the years preceding the First World War, the similarities and differences in the ways that these two forms of prejudice were articulated, and the overlap between them are analysed. Five strands of anti-Jewish and anti-Chinese sentiment and action are discussed. The first examines how international manifestations of antisemitism and Sinophobia, suspicions aimed at Jews and Chinese as transnational diasporic communities, and perceptions of these minorities, through Russian pogroms, the Boxer Rebellion in China and the post-Boer War economic situation in South Africa, were framed in narratives of victimhood and aggression. Second, the transnational and colonial circuits of racialized discourse and the relationship between periphery and metropole are considered, as are divergences in the articulation of anti-Jewish and anti-Chinese prejudice. The third strand investigates the use of the language of ‘invasion’, used by both the political right and the left in discussing Jewish and Chinese immigration and economic activity in Britain, with Chinese employment in British industries (in this period particularly as sailors on British ships) framed in the context of a demographic ‘Asiatic’ takeover of European societies. The fourth strand looks at the intersection of racial prejudice and sexual and social angst, the visceral association of immigrant groups with dirt and disease, and the sexual threat that racist and antisemitic literature attributed to Jews and Chinese. Finally, physical manifestations of antisemitism and Sinophobia in the period and the racial violence that occurred in Cardiff and Tredegar in 1911 will be described and placed in context. The article positions Edwardian antisemitism and Sinophobia as a transitory stage in the evolution of British racism: a bridge between the separate domestic and colonial forms of prejudice present in late Victorian discourse, and the new manifestations of racism located in British cities and ports, but aimed at non-white minorities, that emerged in the interwar period.     

‘Ireland of the welcomes’? racism and anti-racism in nineteenth-century Ireland

Irish society, North and South, has been slow to develop a social awareness and legal framework in relation to racism. This has resulted, in the main, from an unwillingness to admit to the presence of racism in Irish history and culture. Yet an examination of Irish society at the time of the visits of two black abolitionists to the country Olaudah Equiano in 1791 and Frederick Douglass in 1845—reveals deep currents of racism in both instances. The attempt by Belfast merchant Waddell Cunningham, who had made his fortune through the provisioning of slave plantations in the Caribbean, to establish a slave-trading company in Belfast in 1786 is a case in point. And, in the mid-nineteenth century, the Young Irelanders, a radical and militant nationalist movement, viewed national liberation as more pressing than the abolition of slavery. At the same time, both Equiano and Douglass noted the warm welcome they received, the former from anti-slavery activists, and the latter from such global players in the international abolitionist scene as Daniel O'Connell. Rolston concludes that there is nothing mysterious in contemporary Irish racism and anti-racism. Both have deep historical roots and are ultimately explained by Ireland's complex relationship to colonization: colonized itself, while at the same time intimately involved in colonizing others through the key roles played by Irish people throughout the British empire.     

建立协作区:乡镇纪委制度革新的可行路径

作为纪检监察系统中不可或缺的组成部分——乡镇纪委,是推动农村基层党风廉政建设最积极、最重要、最现实的力量。但在现实生活中,乡镇纪委履职不充分,甚至被虚置的现象较为普遍。问题存在的根源在于乡镇纪委的纪检监察职能与乡镇政权运行现状常相冲突,乡镇纪委对各纪委委员的管理缺乏有效的制度支撑。要改变乡镇纪委目前的履职困境,可采取建立协作区的方式,整合资源,创新机制,加强监管与考评,真正将基层党风廉政建设落到实处、取得实效。     

Intergovernmental Relations in the Reagan Era

This article reviews federal Reagan-era policies that affected grant-in-aid programs to state and local governments. We find the most important developments in federal aid policies of the Reagan years are twofold—the relative decline in the national government's involvement in domestic affairs and the concomitant rise in the role of the states. The administration achieved these effects by devolving federal authority to states and by reducing grant spending. Reagan's biggest cuts in federal aid outlays came in 1981; in subsequent years, total grant outlays began to rebound, increasing in nominal dollars to levels above those in the Carter years, though still below the high-water mark reached in 1978 in real terms. Medicaid, the largest federal aid program, accounts for most of the overall growth, masking cuts in operating and capital grant programs. Reagan's devolutionary and retrenchment policies are one of several factors we see as contributing to the rising role of states in domestic affairs, a trend we think is likely to continue in the next administration.     

Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan

Does reapportionment in a legislature affect policy outcomes? We examine this question from a comparative perspective by focusing on reapportionment associated with the electoral reform in Japan. First, we show that the reform of 1994 resulted in an unprecedented degree of equalization in legislative representation. Second, using municipal‐level data, we present evidence that municipalities in overrepresented districts received significantly more subsidies per capita, as compared to those in underrepresented districts, in both prereform and postreform years. Third, by examining the relationship between the change in the number of seats per capita and the change in the amount of subsidies per capita at the municipal level, we show that the equalization in voting strength resulted in an equalization of total transfers per person.     

Graduate education in public management: Working the seams of government

Public management means quite different things when it is understood in terms of its intellectual roots in policy analysis, in terms of what managers actually do in the public sector, and in terms of the knowledge and skills required for effective performance in higher-level jobs in the public sector. As taught in the public policy schools, public management has inherited a deep skepticism about public intervention and an active decision-forcing attitude toward the practice and teaching of management. These attributes distinguish it from public administration. The public management curriculum has developed in a number of different ways, and four broad models can be discerned from existing practice: the core survey model, the elective model, the modified MBA model, and the generic model. These models differ in several ways but share a common bias toward grounding in the technical core of management skills, a strong decision-forcing emphasis, and an active view of the manager's role.     

Renting the Dream: The Rise of Single-Family Rentership in the Sunbelt Metropolis

In the aftermath of the foreclosure crisis, there has been a marked shift toward renting in the United States, with a large increase in households renting single-family homes. In the 50 largest metropolitan areas, the number of detached, single-family rental homes (SFRs) increased from 3.8 million to 5.8 million from 2006 to 2015. Single-family rentership rates increased in all 50 large metro areas, with the percentage of single-family units that are rented increasing from 11.3% to 16%. Notably, the nine metropolitan areas with the largest increases were all located in the Sunbelt. Given expected neighborhood sorting, it is important to consider neighborhood increases in SFRs. In one large Sunbelt metro area, Atlanta, increases in SFRs from 2010 to 2015 were particularly large in older, inner-county diverse suburbs. Regression results show that, controlling for other neighborhood characteristics, neighborhoods with larger Asian, Latino, and black populations saw larger increases in SFRs. The effects were particularly high in neighborhoods with larger Latino and, especially, Asian populations. Another key finding is that, in neighborhoods with lower property values, more foreclosures during the crisis were associated with sizeable increases in SFRs. However, more foreclosures in neighborhoods with high property values were not associated with increases in SFRs. This is possibly due to the exclusionary nature of high property-value suburbs and the strong demand in such neighborhoods for owner-occupied housing. Implications for policy and research are considered.     

Packed primaries and empty caucuses: voter turnout in presidential nominations

In presidential nomination contests, the number of voters participating in selecting the presidential candidates varies considerably across states. In the same election year, turnout in presidential nomination contests ranges from less than 1 % of party supporters participating in some caucuses to record breaking turnout levels upwards of 50 % in primaries in other states. This variation is attributable, in part, to the electoral rules, which vary across states, years, and parties. In this paper, I provide a comprehensive examination of the extent to which party and state rules affect voter turnout in nomination contests from 1980 to 2012. Using the normal partisan support score as the voter turnout denominator, I find that primaries, open contests, and proportional representation rules result in higher levels of turnout. I also show that within the window of competitiveness, turnout is higher in states that hold contests later in the nomination season. Overall, my analysis provides insight into the institutional structures that influence the number of people who participate in the presidential nomination process and enhances understanding about the factors that affect voter turnout.     

Introduction to Special Issue: Think Tanks in the Nordic Countries

Think tanks in the Nordic countries are now frequently referred to in national media, among decision-makers as well as in academic communities. Based on the literature on think tanks, a consensual and adversarial perspective on their development is advanced. In support of a consensual perspective, the special issue shows that a number of policy think tanks, which play consensual roles in different policy niches, have emerged in the Nordic countries in recent decades. In support of an adversarial perspective, think tank landscapes in the Nordic countries now include advocacy think tanks from both sides of the political spectrum. The mixed think tank landscapes found in the Nordic countries do not constitute a break with consensual policy-making traditions. Nevertheless, a number of privately funded think tanks, which have increased competition for funding, media visibility and political influence, have supplemented established publicly funded think tanks in particular in Scandinavia.     

Citizenship in the Faroe Islands: Participant,Parochial or Colonial?

This article analyses citizenship and political culture in the Faroe Islands based on a quantitative survey carried out in summer 2004. Located theoretically in the tradition of Scandinavian citizenship investigations and its predecessors in the 'civic culture' tradition of Almond and Verba, four areas of citizenship are analysed: political engagement, democratic participation, political efficacy and democratic identity. The main hypothesis is that the character of citizenship in the Faroe Islands is very similar to that found in the Scandinavian countries in general. While most of the results found confirm this hypothesis, there are a number of special features that demand alternative explanations. Thus, the fact that the Faroese score much below the Scandinavian average concerning 'postmodern' forms of political participation like political consumption or boycott of goods, and that gender differences are bigger than in other Scandinavian countries when it comes to female representation in the Faroese parliament and in government, seems better explained by the relative remoteness of the islands from the Scandinavian political and cultural mainstream (the parochialism hypothesis). Also the fact that the Faroese are much less confident in speaking at public meetings, sending letters to newspapers or complaining to authorities than, for example, Danes in general calls for an alternative explanation. As these features go together with much less knowledge about and confidence in the Danish parliament ('Folketinget') and a lower level of efficacy towards the parliament than among Danes in general, the most likely explanation seem to be found in the way in which Danish supremacy has affected political culture in the Faroe Islands (the colonialism hypothesis).     

Changes in the Location of the Median Voter in theU.S. House of Representatives, 1963–1996

We consider the degree of ideological polarizationwithin and between the parties in the U.S. House ofRepresentatives for the period 1963–1996, using theGroseclose, Levitt and Snyder (1996) adjustment method for ADA and ACU scores to ensure over timecomparability of roll call voting data. We focusespecially on the median House member, since webelieve that change in the median offers a bettermeasure of the impact of the change in party controlthan does changes in the mean roll-call votingscore. Our data analysis makes two general points. First andforemost, when we looked at the change in the locationof the House median voter, we found a dramatic changeafter the Republicans gained a majority in the House in1994. After the Republicans became a majority in theHouse, the ADA median in the House in 1995–1996 was at24, far closer to the Republican median of 4 than tothe Democratic median of 83. The shift in medianfrom 1993–1994 to 1994–1995 involved a change of over 25points in one election – far and away the greatestsingle shift in ideology of the modern era. Incontrast, the mean changed only 1 point overthis same period. Second, for the three decades weinvestigated, we found three historical epochs vis a visthe relative locations of the ADA (or ACU) floormedian and the ADA (or ACU) floor mean in the U.S.House of Representatives – two inflection points in1983 and 1994 which are related to trends in regionalrealignment.     

Mediated political masculinities: the commander-in-chief vs. the new man

The media play a very influential role in our perceptions of our political leaders, irrespective of where in the world they appear. Since the latter part of the twentieth century, our leaders’ personalities came to play an increasing role in their appeal, in particularly their gendered performances. As Barack Obama's presidency draws to the end of its second term, this paper will examine the representation of his persona in the context of the election in 2008 when he became the first Black US president. Much has been written of him being the first Black president of the USA, however, if we explore his campaign through a gendered lens, we can see that he is equally revolutionary. This contrasts with the gendered construction of male political leaders in other parts of the world, particularly that of Vladimir Putin in Russia. Building on work carried out in relation to the mediatisation and personalisation of politics in the last 50 years, this article shows how gendered performances can be seen to mirror changes in society.     

PROGRAM BUDGETING REFORMS IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Abstract: This study describes and assesses the recent progress (1975–83) in implementing program budgeting in South Australia. It outlines (1) the leadership of South Australia in this field in Australia, (2) the ways in which administrators adapted program budgeting for successful implementation, (3) the changing emphases which occurred in the reform process, involving parliamentarians, central control departments of government, and responses in ordinary departments, and (4) the relationships of the reforms to political change where that change was reflective of different government attitudes to social reform and to the economic management of stagflation. The study also evaluates what more needs to be done, especially in the more difficult analytical components of program budgeting. In appreciation that program budgeting is of recent origin in Australian public administration, the writing is deliberately structured to explain the essential nature of program budgeting, using the relevant general principles to assess the progress of implementation in South Australia.     

Policy Developments for Workplace Gender Equity in a Global Era: The Importance of the EU in the UK

abstract This article asks whether attempts to achieve gender equity in the workplace are limited by globalization. On the one hand, globalization has been seen to curtail ambitions for equity in employment because of the increased power of global capital as compared with labor, including within the state. On the other hand, there are two counter tendencies. One is the modernization of the gender regime, which has restructured gender inequalities and developed new political constituencies among women, and the other is the development of new polities, in particular the European Union, in response to the perceived challenge of globalization. I investigate the impact of these crosscutting changes on policies aimed at gender equity in the workplace in the UK. I consider data on changes in gender equity in the workplace and developments in employment policy, especially increased education and the changing regulation of working time and equal opportunities policies. The article concludes that globalization does not lead to the weakening of all polities, that the EU has become increasingly powerful in the context of globalization, and that despite the weakening of labor, the increased education of women and the increased articulation of women's political voices has led to improvements in some dimensions of the position of some women in employment.