英文摘要

Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean and China＇s Strategy Shi Chunlin The maritime routes of the Indian Ocean are of critical importance to China given perceived seurity threat in this region and China＇s increasing relevance of intersts. There comes to be a strategic imperative for China to step in efforts to gain a credible security reassurance in terms of substantial China＇s overseas energy shipments and its increasing sense of insecurity caused by the emerging conflict of interests with other powers. The author believes that China would have a better capacity to cope with any potential crisis or emergencies given defining its proactive countermeasures and taking calibrated but result--oriented operation.     

Energy Development in South Asia and China- South Asia Energy Cooperation

In South Asia, most countries are heavily dependent on energy imports as a result of poor natural endowment, weak exploration capacity and fast economic development. However, being close neighbor to China, the South Asia serves as the corridor for China＇s energy imports and the transit region for China＇s oil and gas pipelines. It is in China＇s strategic interests to conduct energy cooperation with the South Asian countries.     

U.S.-China-Japan Relations and China＇ s Strategic Choices

japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe＇s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine has escalated tensions between China and Japan that were triggered by the Diaoyu Islands dispute. Changes in the balance of power between China and Japan have caused concerns and strategic restlessness in Japan. Because of public opinion and his party＇s control of the House of Representatives and Senate, Abe is now eager to further his aims both domestically and overseas. That is why he said： ＂Now is the time for Japan to take the big step in building a new state.＂ The U.S. supports a stronger Japan because it is looking to maintain the strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region. Its Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy is bound to inflame Japan＇s ambitions. In fact, Japan has been actively pursuing stronger ties with the U.S. and became more aggressive over the Diaoyu Islands issue.     

Building Friends Nearby： Chinas Economic Relations with Neighboring Countries

Peripheral diplomacy tops China＇s overall diplomatic layout. Economic diplomacy has also increasingly become an importantpart of Chinese diplomacy. Therefore, it is of important strategic significance to promote economic diplomacy in the surrounding areas. For China, now is a conflict-prone period in relations with its neighboring countries, a sensitive time of American rebalancing to Asia Pacific and a period of development bottlenecks in the peaceful rise of China. It is an important strategic issue for China to figure out how to join neighboring countries to achieve an inclusive growth and symbiotic development, to translate its economic influence in the surrounding areas into political influence, and to better safeguard national interests and improve diplomatic influence.     

ABSTRACTS

Speech by India＇s Ambassador to China Dr. S. ,Jaishankar at Institute for South Asian Studies, Sichuan University on Dec. 14, 2009
India＇s Strategic Rise and Sino--lndian Relations： Issues, Trends and Approaches
ZhangLi
India＇s strategic rise will exert significant impacts on regional and global strategic pattern in general, China and Sino --Indian relations in particular. A mutual concerned topic is emphasized on the 60th anniversary of Sino--Indian relation： whether India and China can establish and develop strong and healthy partnership through a credible way, coordinate conflicts, pursue common interests and promote regional and global security and development. To achieve this goal, it is neeessary to enhance mutual trust on strategy and expand cooperation, implement the strategic interaction mechanism, improve the predictability of mutual poliey, and deal with main issues such as border dispute and geo-strategy collision.     

International System and China＇s Asia-Pacific Strategy

What impact does a shift in the global distribution of power have on the international order？ According to the views of traditional realists, power transitions in the international order are usually accompanied by major wars, the best example being the two world wars of the twentieth century. China＇s peaceful rise is conducive to the peace and stability of Asia and Pacific regions. The steady rise of China＇s position and its role in dealing with international and regional problems have proved China＇s success in ＂cooperative security＂. This paper analyzes the security order in the Asia-Pacific region1 that China wants to construct to provide important guarantees to its peaceful rise. Firstly, I review and compare key arguments about the transition of international systems and China＇s Asia-Pacific strategy, Secondly, I investigate the dynamics between China＇s peaceful rise and the ＂cooperative security＂ which I think are the collective embodiments of modem transformation and the restructuring of China＇s traditional strategic culture. Thirdly, I examine how to construct a mechanism of cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region to guarantee China＇s peaceful rise on both political and economic levels. Economic cooperation and free trade in Asia-Pacific region is an important route to regional economic integrity which will guarantee China＇s role in maintaining the political and economic security in the region.     

China-Central Asia ＂Twin-Track＂ Energy Cooperation

China＇s large-scale investment in Kazakh oil and gas resource development ushered in a new era of China-Kazakhstan bilateral trade in the late 1990s. This lifted cooperation between China and the five countries in Central Asia to a new level, opening the China-Central Asia energy channel and bringing the ＂Silk Road economic belt＂ into being. Central Asia and China＇s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, areas which are both abundant in renewable energy, should fully utilize their geopolitical advantages as neighbors by means of Xinjiang＇s rapid growth. Projecting a twin-track mechanism of developing both renewable and non-renewable energy resources is of great significance to both China and Central Asia.     

Evolvement of New China＇s Relations with Other Developing Countries

China＇s relationship with other developing countries is an important basis for China＇s foreign strategy. Since its founding, New China has accumulated complex experience and achieved rich fruits in how to handle and develop its relations with other developing countries. It has experienced contradictions between ideology and national identity and also made strenuous efforts to safeguard the country＇s strategic independence. Since the introduction of the reform and opening-up policy, China has rapidly enhanced its national strength, providing a new platform for it to play a greater role in the current international system. But China＇s identity as a developing country remains the starting point of its foreign strategy, and hence promoting and consolidating its relationship with other developing countries will also remain as China＇s strategic choice.     

Adjusting China＇ s Strategic Thinking and Positive Response to the Serious Challenges of Japanese Militarism

In recent years, China＇s strategic pressure has increased as U.S. strategic anxiety has deepened and its global strategic focus has shiftedeast. With difficulties home and abroad, the U.S. has taken measures to ＂put Japan out＂, and to allow Japan to be the U.S. ＇s important strategic fulcrum in the Asia-Pacific region, as a means of restricting China. This is the important background for Japanese militarism.     

新时代中国海洋维权理念与实践

As China is ushering in a new era of national development,the global environment is becoming increasingly volatile.Faced with a complex situation in the adjacent maritime waters,the leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CPC),with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core,has put forward a farsighted and important strategic plan to transform China into a maritime power,including a series of concepts and practices specifically intended to safeguard China’s maritime rights and interests in the new era.A comprehensive analysis and summary of these concepts and practices will not only clarify what these rights and interests are,but it also bears theoretical and practical significance to correctly understand the Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and the Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy,and better safeguard China’s maritime rights and interests.     

安全焦虑、信号传递与中国对东南亚国家的战略安抚

对于崛起的中国而言,采取系统性战略安抚,树立自我克制的负责任大国形象有助于赢得周边国家信任。然而,在二十多年睦邻外交实践中,东南亚国家始终对崛起的中国的意图感到焦虑,这种担忧因地理邻近性与实力不对称而变得更加敏感。2008年以来,东南亚国家对中国"核心利益"话语、逐步增多的外交制裁以及多边倡议给予了较大关注。面对东南亚国家上升的安全忧虑,中国外交主动释放安抚信号增信释疑。与强制策略不同,安抚策略关注如何从正面激励换取他国的信任。立足于对现有文献的批判性整合,重新梳理善意信号的呈现形式(情感-物质)与成本来源(内生-外生)两大维度,可以从逻辑上生成四种睦邻安抚信号的表达路径:睦邻话语、相互依赖、无私援助与制度约束。面对中国的吸引与安抚,东南亚国家也会主动进行试探与甄别,以讨价还价、社会化、对冲试探和制度牵制四种方式,对中国释放的安抚信号进行评估。由于安抚信号的可信度评估具有主观性,东南亚国家对中国安抚信号存在不同理解,中国外交需换位思考并理解东南亚国家的试探心理。     

Reassurance: A Strategic Basis of U.S. Support for Israel

This article argues that Israel experiences a unique perception of the perils of anarchy that drives it to a strategic preference for disproportionately offensive action against rivals and enemies. Actions taken pursuant to that doctrine have caused serious inconvenience to U.S. foreign policy in the Mideast for over four decades. This article argues that by reassuring Israel, both diplomatically and with arms sales, that the United States is committed to its survival, the United States has obtained significant measures of strategic restraint on Israel's part. That restraint has brought significant benefit to the United States as it seeks to guarantee regular access to the vital resources of the Middle East. This article provides examples of both successful reassurance and reassurance denied to illustrate the argument that U.S. support produces tangible strategic benefits for the United States.     

Evolution of the U.S. Strategy toward China and China’s Peaceful Development

China-U.S. relationship is the most important one between two big powers in the world today. It is both bilateral and global by nature. How to handle this relationship is closely linked with the fundamental interests of the U.S. and China, as well as peace and stability in the Asia Pacific region and even in the world. So, a profound examination of the nature of U.S. strategy toward China and its evolution over the years will help to fully understand the opportunities and challenges China will meet in the course of peaceful development.     

论上海合作组织的发展前途——基于中俄战略构想比较分析的视角

战略利益决定战略构想.战略构想的相同或相近,体现了其共同或相似的战略利益.战略构想不同,是由其不同利益或利益分歧决定的.上合组织是否有前途,是否有生命力,从根本上来说取决于中俄两国战略构想是否一致或大体吻合.如果战略构想相差甚远,体现了其战略利益的背道而驰,那么建立在其上的国际组织是不可能有大的发展前途的.中俄关于上合组织的战略构想中,相同、相似或交叉之处远远大于或多于不同或分歧之处,说明上合组织虽然是一个新建的、年轻的国际组织,还很不成熟,很不完善,但上合组织是有生命力的,是有发展前途的.     

中美关系与亚太地区格局

亚太地区是中美利益的交汇区,中美战略关系的发展直接影响地区格局的走向,同样,地区格局的演变也影响着中美关系。未来,在亚太地区,中美之间既存在着广泛的共同利益,有着较大的合作空间,但双方也存在着明显的战略取向的冲突。美国将追求维持其对亚太地区的主导地位,实现所谓＂美国治下的和平＂;而中国坚持主张国际政治民主化,以完全平等的方式与亚太国家发展合作关系。这种理念差异和政策取向将对亚太地区战略格局产生影响。     

探析中俄地区安全务实合作

中俄在许多安全领域具有共同利益，两国之间的安全合作也有较为坚实的政治、经济和历史基础。在新的安全环境下，中俄双方需共同努力，在以下方面推进务实安全合作，保证战略稳定和地区稳定：共同推动上合组织有效履行维护地区安全责任；在战略互信的基础上深入开展军事合作；加强维护地区安全方面的合作；深化在非传统安全领域的合作。     

美国对华经贸规锁:典型事实、行为逻辑与战略约束

特朗普政府执政后,美国从升级对华关税制裁、重塑国际贸易规则、严控高新技术获取、扩容货币互换协议、打压中国概念股票、推进产业链自主化和"去中国化"六个维度,对中国实施选择性"挂钩"和关键领域"脱钩"的经贸规锁。其行为逻辑,一是为满足国内多元化经济集团的利益诉求,二是基于美国对中国崛起的"威胁认知"和大国战略竞争的"权力逻辑"。从战略约束看,美国开放性利益集团的经济理性、其他经济体的行为取向、中国的结构性国家竞争优势,构成了美国对华经贸规锁的重要制约因素。作为应对,中国需确定"全政府"的战略模式,理解"双循环"的科学内涵,贯彻改革开放的既定方针,重视"一带一路"倡议的战略意义。     

“双重国籍”的放弃——中国与印尼开辟睦邻外交的突破口

有学者认为,中国产生于1909年的第一部国籍法是与西方殖民主义者争夺华侨的产物.的确,对后世中国地缘政治外交产生一定影响的"双重国籍"问题即由此而来,但从国际政治和国际关系的角度来看,此说只是揭示了问题的现象,而并未触及其深层的原因.本文试图通过回顾华侨"双重国籍"问题的历史发展,并探讨新中国解决与印尼"双重国籍"问题的外交背景,以更好地认识"双重国籍"问题的解决对于新中国外交所具有的积极意义.     

美国智库对华战略构想的新内涵——以《更长电报:走向新的美国对华战略》为例

拜登执政后美国对华战略如何调整备受瞩目,美国一些智库则积极"兜售"相关政策主张,其中大西洋理事会发布的《更长电报:走向新的美国对华战略》匿名报告受到广泛关注。该报告反映出美国智库对华战略构想中区别于传统冷战思维的新内涵,在战略认知上更新涉华判断,臆想当前中国战略"脆弱点",批判特朗普政府对华"政治惯性",主张从外部瓦解中国;在战略目标上力推拓展核心利益、重塑国际秩序,强调"共同威胁"以重振霸权体系,旨在护持冷战后美国霸权地位;在战略布局层面,提出振兴国家权势和加强对华威慑、明确与华竞争合作界限并煽动意识形态斗争,以全面遏制中国。该报告肆意抹黑中国,错误界定中国国家利益,对中国充满恶意偏见和误判,其战略布局根本无法撼动中国大战略根基。值得警惕的是,该报告的部分战略与政策构想在拜登政府近期政策实践中已有体现,暴露出美国政治精英与知识群体在涉华政策方面具有很大程度上的共同认知。在中美战略竞争常态化下,必须厘清两国关系的"常量"与"变量",做好应对各种风险和挑战的准备,尤其维护好国家意识形态安全。     

The Gwadar Port Issue in Sino-U.S. Relations

Because of its unique geopolitical importance,China's aid to construct Gwadar Port has caused much concern in the U.S. and other countries. The U.S. sees it as strategic expansion in the Indian Ocean and claims that China is intent on using Gwadar Port as a naval base in its "string of pearls strategy." The U.S. and China maintain conflicting interests on this issue. Although Sino-U.S.relations may not be affected greatly in the near future, the negative influence in the long term cannot be ignored.