越美海军关系新发展值得关注

近期,美国调整其亚太战略,不断发展与东盟国家的关系,增强在东亚包括东南亚地区的军事存在。越南与美国海军交往的战略意图不容忽视,越南与美国发展海军关系,既迎合了美国对亚太战略进行重大调整、加强与东南亚国家接触的需要,也是其自身推行新的全面海洋战略和南海争端＂国际化＂战略的需要。越南应该清醒地看到,越美之间战略利益的一致性将会是短暂的、不均衡的。美国的全球战略决定它不会把现在的越南作为长期战略伙伴,不会把越南放在举足轻重的战略位置上。     

Command,Strategic Contest,and Confidence-building in the South China Sea

Wealth and power have steered global prestige from East to West and back again. History's serial relocations of economic growth and corollary power changed the character of the South China Sea into a conflictual conduit for Eastern and then Western colonialism, a strategic sea space in world war, and now a cockpit of contest to maintain or revise the rules-based international order. For the first time in several centuries, a Chinese blue water navy is projecting power across the Indo-Pacific and prosecuting a national maritime security strategy to transform the South China Sea into China's sovereign territory. In large part, the winner of the Sino-American struggle for preponderance in the South China Sea will steer the course of the twenty-first century in the Indo-Pacific.     

马来西亚南海安全政策初探

南海分布着马来西亚的领海和专属经济区海域,是马来西亚国家利益的重要组成部分。为实践在南海地区“维护海洋环境的稳定,不受限制地开发海洋资源和开展国际贸易”的战略构想,马来西亚通过建立和发展自主的国防力量,与区域内外国家开展有限的安全合作以增强在南海的防御能力,并通过各种途径巩固对南沙部分岛礁的占领,实现其在南海的主权安全和经济安全。马来西亚将南海视为其海洋利益拓展的前沿阵地,在南海问题趋于复杂化、国际化的背景下,马来西亚希望通过实施大国平衡战略,维持南海地区的力量平衡,创造对己有利的海上安全环境。     

南海问题与中美新型双边军事关系的构建

南海领土争端非常复杂,与海上优势和领土主张有关的新利益和竞争背后存在战略动机。虽然20世纪90年代后期和过去十年间南海保持着相对和平,但是复现的争议及潜在的冲突升级除了凸显各声索国之间的角力外,更反映了南海问题正在由资源领土之争上升演变为中美两国的地缘战略博弈。中美两国在南海地区的互动,特别是两军愈发频繁的海空相遇以及由此引发的冲突或事故,因此中美两国发展新型双边军事关系是非常必要的。中美两国在南海附近的相遇存在冲突升级的可能性,同时,美国的亚太同盟的存在一定程度上阻碍了中美的双边军事交流。缺乏有效的沟通机制造成了中美双边军事关系的低互动性以及两国战略互信的缺失。考虑到南海作为至关重要的海上交通线,其潜在的海洋资源以及未解决的领土争端,中美两国应该如何更好地理解和解决不断出现的安全挑战并且建立管理危机的机制,这对亚太地区的重要国家(包括美国和中国)都有重大的政策启示。     

Pivot but Hedge: A Strategy for Pivoting to Asia While Hedging in the Middle East

The U.S. government's new emphasis on the Asia-Pacific represents a bold strategic choice that could animate U.S. national security policy for years to come. Yet the United States must balance its rightful new focus on the Asia-Pacific with the volatility that still exists in other areas of the world. The United States should pivot to the Asia-Pacific—but to protect its vital interests, it should also hedge against threats elsewhere, particularly in the greater Middle East. To implement a “Pivot but Hedge” strategy, the U.S. government should do three things. First, it should exercise caution when cutting the defense budget. Second, it should give the military services greater leadership roles in specific regions: naval and air forces should lead in the Asia-Pacific, while ground forces should lead in the greater Middle East. Third, it should maintain expansible, capable, and well-trained ground forces as a hedge against global uncertainty.     

China's New Multi-Faceted Maritime Strategy

As trade-driven growth and prosperity redefine both the Chinese economy and the global competitive landscape, U.S. policy makers increasingly must ponder whether the Chinese leadership will seek new options and capabilities to protect its far-reaching oceanic lifelines. As imported oil and raw minerals power the Chinese juggernaut, much of these flows traverse the Strait of Malacca and other littorals where there is little current Chinese capability to project power. In recent years, there is an ongoing debate among Chinese military circles regarding the feasibility of constructing a blue-water fleet that could change the balance of power in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. U.S. policy makers watch with increasing unease as a new generation of technically-savvy navy officers forcefully argue for a forward-looking maritime strategic posture that extends beyond the East and South China Seas. In addition, recent Chinese space-based and cyber warfare technology initatives bear watching as Beijing seeks to nullify key U.S. advantages in C4SRI using a high-tech variant of “asymmetric warfare.” Although it is unclear what direction future Chinese maritime strategy and doctrine will take, U.S. policy makers need to remain vigilant about rising Chinese maritime ambitions and capabilities in the future.     

Chinese maritime concepts

The ancient Chinese always had a complex psychic relation to the vast ocean: longing, but disdaining. On the one hand, they thought there were elfish hills, immortals, and fairy trees abroad; on the other hand, they viewed overseas residents as strange. Before the fifteenth century, the Chinese people were capable of conducting maritime operations positively and entering into contacting peaceful and friendly contacts with foreign countries, the establishment of Ming Dynasty suppression of the coastal areas and the closed-door policy became its basic national policy. After the failure of the first Opium War, some coastal military officials and intellectual elites took the lead in “seeing the world”; they were cognizant of the superior might of western firepower and claimed that the Chinese should “learn from the ‘barbarians’ advanced skills to resist their aggression”. However, even those provincial magnates who actively advocated coastal defense such as Li Hongzhang and Shen Baozhen also failed to really comprehend the oceans' great economic and military value and separated themselves from the set pattern of the old land-based coastal defense. It was not until the beginning of the twentieth century, with the introduction of A. T. Mahan's Sea Power Theory, that the Chinese people gained a comparatively profound cognition of the importance of protecting national maritime interests. The democratic revolutionist Sun Yat-sen insisted that man should strive for survival and development by means of the oceans. However, at the beginning of the establishment of the People's Republic of China, faced with the economic blockade and political pressure by western powers, the Chinese government still took land development and “coastal security” as the center and neglected the effective management of the maritime territory. Since “reform and opening-up”, the second generation of central collective leaders of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Deng Xiaoping at its core, proposed the coastal strategic concept of “offshore defense” and the principle of “laying sovereignty and jointly exploring” for handling maritime disputes, and the third generation of central collective leaders of CPC with Jiang Zemin, at its core, emphasized a better understanding of the oceans from the height of strategy. Nowadays, under the influence of the increasing emphasis on the oceans all over the world, the voice of the Chinese government and Chinese people to establish a strong naval power has become increasingly stronger, but its action is still impeded by many aspects.     

俄罗斯海上战略通道思想与政策探析

在历史上,俄罗斯为了争夺出海口,占领和控制黑海海峡,与西方列强展开激烈的争夺。冷战结束后,俄罗斯采取更为现实的做法,积极发展海军,以加强海上战略核威慑力量为突破口,重视海上的国际合作,切实维护好与俄罗斯利益相关的海上通道的安全。研究俄罗斯海上通道安全的思想和政策,对维护国际战略通道的安全与合作,制定中国的通道战略思想具有重要意义。     

新时期印度海权战略的确立及其思想根源

新时期印度海权战略的确立不是一蹴而就的。经过长期的酝酿与积淀,21世纪初新时期印度海权战略最终确立。它集印度洋“区域控制”和向周边大洋“远洋延伸”为一体,以建立世界级“海权国”为终极目标。新时期印度海权战略有两大思想根源：其一是源于印度地理和历史的强烈海权意识,其二是马汉海权论影响下的潘尼迦海权思想。     

A Maritime Conversation with America

Over the last century, the U.S. Navy has encountered critical moments when the emergence of new technologies and competitors cause paradigmatic shifts, undermining established operations and force structure. Today, the rise of an assertive China and its new anti-access and area-denial capabilities threaten the aircraft carrier-based maritime dominance of the U.S. Navy. Citizens and elected officials alike need to be conversant in the process to create the strategy, forces, and metrics needed to guarantee that the United States wins the emerging maritime competition in the Western Pacific. It is time to explain to the American public the enduring considerations and limitations that shape the operations of their global Navy.     

日本积极介入南海问题的战略意图和政策走向

进入21世纪以来,日本政府推进＂南进战略＂,高调介入南海问题,争夺海洋权益的政策倾向越发明显。野田内阁上台以后,更是积极与东南亚国家开展海上安全合作,谋划关于南海问题的多边机制。不难看出,日本的战略意图和政策目标是在从地缘政治、经济、安全等多个方面实施对中国的战略包围,这不仅使中日两国关系变得更为复杂,也必将危及东亚地区的和平、安全与稳定。然而,对华政策又是决定日本外交成败的关键,中日之间的结构性问题是长期的,决定了中日关系将长期在曲折反复中前行,中日领导人之间的机制性定期会晤,将有助于中日战略互惠关系的发展。     

欧美列强的东亚地缘及海军战略(19~20世纪中叶)

19~20世纪中叶,欧美列强在东亚推行由基地、经关键点、再进行展开以及建立缓冲区、防波堤的地缘战略;基于地缘之上,欧美列强推行夺取储煤站、建立海军基地、控制重要航道、以小规模舰队威胁或集中海上力量击溃对手的海军制胜战略。欧美列强的东亚地缘及海军战略对东亚尤其是中、日、俄三国关系产生了巨大的影响。     

论中国海洋强国战略的内涵与法律制度

"党的十八大报告"提出了建设海洋强国的国家战略目标,国际实践启示我们,应对和处理海洋问题的关键是,在国内应制定和实施国家海洋战略、以及保障海洋战略实施的法律制度,以固化和保障这些海洋政策和措施的实施,实现海洋强国战略目标。鉴于我国的基本国情,我国重点通过发展海洋经济路径建设海洋强国的战略目标,应分阶段地实施,包括区域性海洋大国/强国和世界性海洋大国/强国等阶段,并指出了在各个阶段的具体目标和任务,以及实现这些目标的具体措施及基本指标,也论述了国家海洋战略的内涵及制定保障海洋政策和措施实施的海洋基本法的意义。     

＂Strategic Reassurance＂ and the Future of China-U.S. Relations

＂Strategic reassurance,＂ a new concept in Obama＇s China policy, should be fostered bilaterally by dialogue designed to highlight and reinforce the areas of common interests while addressing the sources of mistrust directly. Yet in practice it seems that U.S. strategic reassurance has contrasted all China＇s core interests. The United States and China must recognize their different social systems and asymmetrical national strength in seeking to realize strategic stability. Crisis control requires sophisticated management of both side, especially on sensitive issues like weapons sales, the Dalai Lama, and the South China Sea dispute.     

China’s Future Security Environment

A U.S.military strategy report published in 2009 provides an assessment of China's overall national security environment and regional issues over the next 25 years.China's future international strategi...     

美国中东政策的战略支点——土耳其

土耳其是中东地区大国，地跨欧、亚两大洲，连接黑海和地申海，也是多种文明的交汇地，无论在冷战还是后冷战时期都有十分重要的地缘政治意义。二战后美国与土耳其关系发展很快，土耳其成为美国在中东地区实施扩张势力范围和遏制苏联政策的重要“战略支点”之一。美国中东战略中许多重要举措都是通过土耳其这个“支点”展开的。土耳其与美国等西方国家的关系并非只有融合、亲密的一面，还有不断产生矛盾、出现一些“不和谐声音”的另一面。新世纪土耳其调整外交战略“向东看”，但依然是美国中东政策的战略支点之一，并能“东西逢源”，无疑将在中东地区发挥更大作用。     

“珍珠链战略”：印度的认知与应对

“珍珠链战略”是一个由美国人发明的不规范的战略概念。这一术语传播到印度后，迅速引起了印度战略和防务界的极大关注，并成为印度政府制定印度洋安全政策的重要内容。由于这一概念主要针对中国且充满了错误认知，我们理应对此保持密切关注。     

The United States and Maritime Strategy: A Parochial View from the U.S. Naval War College

The emergence of transnational non-state threats, America's ongoing war on terror, and the increasing globalization of the world's economy all affect the security and stability of the maritime environment. As the world's leading economic and maritime power, the US bears a unique responsibility—it must secure and share the benefits of the global commons. A maritime strategy is not just a force planning exercise, or a guide to naval operations in wartime. This article identifies key trends and non-military issues – geographic, economic, and diplomatic – that the Navy and the country must consider in developing a new maritime strategy to provide for good order at sea in the coming decades.     

U.S.＇ Middle East Policy

After the 9/11 incident, the United States further shifted its strategic focus on the Middle East. This article analyzes the strategic dilemma faced by the U.S. in the Middle East and the origins of its Middle East strategy. It uses an historical perspective by comparing former strategies with current policy.     

Business as Usual

In the years since 9/11, there is no doubt that the emphasis of U.S. global strategy has been on counter-terrorism and the war in Iraq. During this period of time, the U.S. investment in strategic, political and military resources in the Middle East, Iraq, and the war on terror, which are the top priorities on the list of Bush＇s foreign policy, has been far greater than in any other fields. However, there are some in the U.S. who believe that China＇s rise has been much ignored by the U.S., due to the global war on terror （GWOT）, and that America should, in fact, be focusing more on China, not the Middle East. However, as we see it, China has by no means been ignored by the U.S., neither has China＇s rise been the result of U.S. ignorance.