阿拉伯世界政治和社会动荡的原因及影响

阿拉伯世界出现激烈的政治和社会动荡，其原因十分复杂。美国等西方大国积极介入。这场动荡可能开启阿拉伯民众寻求新的发展道路的历史进程。当下这轮动荡由乱到治尚须时日。动荡对中东地区格局产生广泛影响。美国对中东事务的主导能力减弱，但其主导地位并未根本动摇。     

中东大变局中的地缘政治博弈

中东地处重要的地缘和能源战略要地，一直是世界主要力量博弈的重点地区。2010年年底源起于突尼斯的政治、社会动荡席卷了整个阿拉伯世界，使中东地区的地缘政治发生显著变化，对中东地区的地缘政治格局产生了很大影响，并对中东未来的地区形势，包括巴以和平进程和伊朗核问题，产生重要影响。     

不稳定结构与中东局势

一提到中东，浮现在人们脑海中的总是“动荡、战乱”，甚至连来自中东地区的中东问题专家也笑谈“在中东问题上没有专家，只有历史学家”。言外之意，中东地区的问题太复杂，太多的非理性因素影响着事态的发展。……     

中东民族与宗教问题新动向

中东素来是全球民族、宗教矛盾与问题最突出、最集中的地区。错综复杂的民族、宗教纷争与矛盾不仅是中东地区乱象丛生的主要表象,也是该地区长期动荡不宁的重要根源。"9.11事件"后、尤其是美国发动伊拉克战争以来,中东民族、宗教问题呈现出与以往不同的诸多特点,并给中东地缘政治和安全格局带来重大影响,不仅造成该地区局势动荡、地缘政治重组,也给美国的中东政策带来严重挑战。     

从中东动荡看美地区战略及新举措

最近中东地区政局激烈动荡,地区广大民众反美情绪高涨,充分暴露了美国中东战略的失误,主要表现在五个方面,其中美国的恣意横行成为引发地区动荡的一个重要诱因;巴以争端依旧,令阿拉伯人忧心忡忡。为了稳住中东,继续执掌该地区事务,奥巴马政府开始着手调整其中东政策,主要采取了五项措施,其中尤其值得一提的是,美国欲将埃及打造成＂民主过渡＂的样板,以促使其他国家仿效。     

剧烈动荡与分化组合——2007年中东地区演变态势

2007年中东地区动荡与分化加剧,地区格局正在发生重大变化。美国在中东地区的过度扩张导致其中东战略陷入困境。小布什不得不于去年底到今年初,对其中东政策做出调整,向共和党传统的现实主义回归,但成效甚微。外部某些力量也加大对中东地区的介入。地区热点问题正酝酿新的危机。     

中东剧变与俄罗斯外交：挑战与应对

俄罗斯是中东地区的重要博弈方。面对中东剧变，俄罗斯外交奉行了实用主义原则，通过“两面下注”的手法，保持与各相关方之间的联系，以确保俄罗斯在该地区的影响力与经济利益。俄罗斯外交所面临的最大挑战是防范中东政治动荡的“溢出效应”，保持俄罗斯国家发展进程的延续性与稳定性。从当前形势来看，中东变局引发俄罗斯政治“地震”的可能性不大。     

当前中东局势及中国与中东关系

近年来,中东局势持续动荡,出现了一些新的特点和趋势,即多点地区冲突同时爆发,互相呼应,互相影响;地区政治力量出现新的消长变化。政治伊斯兰势力上升,传统大国地位下降;美国对中东新战略严重受挫。在可预测的未来,中东热点问题将持续成为地区动荡之源。其中伊拉克政局的走向将对未来中东形势的发展产生重要影响。伊斯兰势力与世俗政权之间对权力与影响力的争夺将更趋激烈,地区内激进势力将更趋活跃,极端思潮蔓延,并有向地区外扩展的趋势。同时,美国在中东影响力下降,难以完成对中东地区进行民主改造的使命。国际和中东形势的变化,使中国和中东国家分别面临新的不同的国际环境,对中东和阿拉伯国家的内政、外交产生深刻影响,也给中国带来新的机遇和挑战。     

美国反恐与中东局势探析

美国遭遇恐怖袭击与中东地区密切相关，其反恐行动更是为本已动荡的巴以局势增添了新的变数。美国中东政策的不确定性是巴以冲突的重要外因，反恐利益则是其中东政策变化的主要根据。随着反恐行动的后续发展，伊拉克成为反恐行动新的打击对象，中东的两大热点——巴以争端和伊拉克问题在反恐框架中相互交织。     

俄罗斯的中东战略和政策评析

2010年底以来，中东地区多数国家进入政治动荡，一些国家由于内生性矛盾和冲突导致政权更迭，利比亚卡扎菲在两方武力干涉下丧命，叙利亚政治危机跌宕起伏，伊朗核问题被推到“战与和”的风口浪尖上。俄罗斯作为世界大国和中东地区邻国，非常关切地区局势变化，并按自己的战略利益和判断，采取相应政策与措施，对地区局势发展施加并产生一定影响。     

美国中东政策的战略支点——土耳其

土耳其是中东地区大国，地跨欧、亚两大洲，连接黑海和地申海，也是多种文明的交汇地，无论在冷战还是后冷战时期都有十分重要的地缘政治意义。二战后美国与土耳其关系发展很快，土耳其成为美国在中东地区实施扩张势力范围和遏制苏联政策的重要“战略支点”之一。美国中东战略中许多重要举措都是通过土耳其这个“支点”展开的。土耳其与美国等西方国家的关系并非只有融合、亲密的一面，还有不断产生矛盾、出现一些“不和谐声音”的另一面。新世纪土耳其调整外交战略“向东看”，但依然是美国中东政策的战略支点之一，并能“东西逢源”，无疑将在中东地区发挥更大作用。     

中东剧变与阿拉伯世界的未来

当前中东正经历的历史性剧变,不仅引发阿拉伯世界的集体大动荡,而且严重冲击地区政治、安全和地缘政治关系,也对大国的中东政策构成重大挑战。未来中东局势改革已势在必行;伊斯兰政治力量将增大,阿拉伯世界长期陷入内乱,伊朗、土耳其将谋求发挥更大地区影响力;美国全球战略与中东政策面临多重结构性挑战;欧盟在外交、能源、安全、移民等方面遭遇前所未有的压力;国际原油市场受冲击从而影响全球经济复苏。     

中东变局与世界主要大国中东战略的调整——兼论中国的中东外交

中东地区历来是大国战略博弈的重点区域。自阿拉伯国家陷入群体性动荡以来,美国、欧洲、俄罗斯等大国或地区力量围绕中东变局纷纷进行政策与战略调整。美国中东战略调整的根本目标是既要避免类似伊拉克战争的深度卷入,又要保持对中东事务的主导权。欧盟尤其是法、英两国对中东变局的积极干预使欧洲对中东事务的影响明显增强,欧盟正力图确立统一的中东战略,但其内部分歧不容忽视。俄罗斯中东战略的核心特征是原则性与灵活性相结合的实用主义外交,并极力维护其地缘战略利益和能源利益。中国应进一步增强对中东战略地位的认识,冷静客观地认识中东变局对中国国际环境变化的影响,并在坚持原则的同时适度扩大对中东事务的参与。     

伊朗核问题及其对大国关系的影响

伊朗核问题自成为全世界关注的焦点以来,国际社会不断斡旋调停甚至制裁,不仅未能取得任何进展,还有愈演愈烈之势。伊朗决心拥核,除有着追求充当地区强国的企图外,更主要的是伊朗伊斯兰政权自成立以来就始终面临着险恶的国际环境,尤其是美伊关系的长期敌对。多年来,伊核问题一直是大国之间相互较量的杠杆,其发展前景或是西方国家推动联合国安理会不断加大对伊施压,或是美国(通过以色列)对伊动武,或是美伊谈判和平解决。无论哪种前景都会对美俄关系、美欧关系、美中关系产生极其深远的影响。     

俄土伊组合的作用及前景（英文）

The Russia-Turkey-Iran coalition has been the most prominent development in the Middle East since the upheavals across West Asia and North Africa in 2011. Though not explicitly targeting the US, it has hindered Washington's strategy of controlling the Middle East and undermining Russia's influence in Eurasia, and also caused troubles to US allies in the region.     

Balance of Power or the State-to-Nation Balance: Explaining Middle East War-Propensity

The Middle East is one of the most war-prone regions in the international system. What is the most powerful explanation of the war-propensity of this region? I argue that neither realism nor liberalism are able to account for variations in regional war-proneness. Instead, I advance an alternative explanation based on the concept of the state-to-nation balance in the region. This balance refers to the degree of congruence between the division of the region into territorial states and the national aspirations and political identifications of the region's peoples. The balance also refers to the prevalence of strong versus weak states in the region. Thus, I explain the Middle East's high war-proneness by focusing on its relatively low level of state-to-nation balance. This imbalance has led to a powerful combination of revisionist ideologies and state incoherence. While other regions suffer from state incoherence, powerful revisionist nationalist forces, notably pan-nationalist and irredentists (the “Greater State”), aggravate this problem in the Middle East. These revisionist forces are often transborder and are especially powerful in the Middle East because of the high degree of external/transborder incongruence in comparison with all other regions. The combination of nationalist revisionism and state incoherence has made the Middle East more prone to violence than most other regions.     

China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Implications for the Middle East

This article examines the geopolitical and economic implications of the Belt and Road Initiative for the Middle East. It locates the BRI within the region’s politics and examines the opportunities that the initiative offers for the region, as well as its inherent risks and challenges. It argues that the BRI is not merely an economic project as framed by Beijing, but that it represents a new stage in China’s engagement with the region, and—if fully implemented—could have wide geopolitical implications. The Middle East has the potential to contribute immensely to China’s sustained growth by addressing its energy security, supporting China’s role as a ‘megatrader’, and, more importantly, driving China’s efforts to become a global maritime power and monetary power by internationalizing the Renminbi (RMB). Thus, the BRI could have wide implications for the Middle East. Far from being a win-win project for all, the BRI will likely benefit some countries in the region more than others. Iran stands ready to benefit most. The BRI will likely increase the strategic importance of the Suez Canal and could potentially undermine the importance of some logistic hubs in the Middle East in favour of other trade hubs in Central Asia.     

Israel and the Palestinians in a Changing Neighbourhood

The political and strategic landscape of the Middle East and North African region has changed dramatically since late 2010 and the events now loosely defined as the ‘Arab Spring’. The dust has yet to settle in many Arab capitals and 2013 is set to be another defining year for the greater Middle East as regional actors, particularly new Islamist-led governments, take on more direct roles in influencing political, military and social developments in the Arab world. Israel and the Palestinian factions of Hamas and Fatah are not immune to these developments and while progress towards peace has been all but non-existent, change in the region must not necessarily lead to more tensions and conflict. The EU and US should work to establish greater Arab ownership of the diplomatic process, convince Israel that its security is best served by assuming a proactive approach to its changing neighbourhood and strive to harness the new realities in the region to modify the incentive calculus of the major domestic players in the conflict.     

中东地区的安全问题与安全治理（英文）

Middle East security has become a prominent global issue which is constantly exacerbating the uncertainty of the region and the world. Establishing a stable and valid security governance system is imperative for the region, but is bound to be a long and arduous process through internal and external coordination and appropriate strategies.