The Trials of Henry Kissinger,written, directed,and produced by Alex Gibney and Eugene Jarecki, 2002. Running time: 80 minutes. Available from Jigsaw Productions. Web site: www.thetrialsofhenrykissinger.com.

Using data from the 2008 and 2009 Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the United States Census Bureau, this article assesses the year-over-year change in the civic engagement of citizens in America's largest metropolitan areas. Of special interest are Denver and Seattle, where the Rocky Mountain News and Seattle Post-Intelligencer closed during the intervening year. The data from the CPS indicate that civic engagement in Seattle and Denver dropped significantly from 2008 to 2009—a decline that is not consistently replicated over the same time period in other major American cities that did not lose a newspaper. The analysis suggests that this decline may plausibly be attributed to the newspaper closures in Seattle and Denver. This short-term negative effect is concerning, and whether it lasts warrants future attention.     

论中美之间的权力转移

经过60余年的物质性和社会性成长,中国的国家实力已经有了明显提高。中国实力的增长和美国实力的相对衰退使中美之间出现了权力转移现象。由于中国坚持和平发展道路和对现存国际秩序持基本满意的态度,中美之间的权力转移未必引起冲突与战争,权力能否和平转移取决于美国对中国崛起的战略判断。中美之间的权力转移并不意味着中崛美落,而是中美和其他主要国家或国家集团一道在国际事务中发挥重要作用。     

Assessment Procedures for Skills‐Based MBA Courses Adapted from the U.S. Army Reserve Officer Training Corps Leadership Development Program

Measuring student progress toward the achievement of learning outcomes in negotiation skills courses is a difficult task. Measuring the effectiveness of the delivery of course instruction can be equally challenging. This article proposes some answers to these questions: How can student performance in skills such as negotiation, leadership, and teamwork (sometimes referred to as “soft skills”) be effectively measured and accurately evaluated? What standards can be used to determine whether student performance is superior, adequate, or inferior? How can teaching effectiveness be evaluated to determine whether students are receiving the instruction necessary to achieve the course learning objectives? This article describes how the authors collaborated on an adaptation of the assessment processes used in the U.S. Army Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) cadet Leadership Development Program for use in an MBA course on negotiation skills. We report on a pilot effort that has demonstrated that the ROTC‐style leadership assessment process can be successfully adapted for use in a graduate course on negotiation and that it provides useful means for evaluating both individual student performance and overall course effectiveness. While our work involved a negotiation course, we suggest that the process could be adapted for use in other skills‐oriented courses such as leadership.     

Foreign Policy in Transition? Human Rights, Democracy, and U.S. Arms Exports

During the Cold War, U.S. foreign policy was dominated by the strategic goal to contain Communism. Human rights and democracy were of secondary importance. In the post-Cold War period, the promotion of human rights and democracy as foreign policy concerns rose in prominence. In the spirit of Andrew Pierre, who once characterized arms transfers as "foreign policy writ large ," this study questions whether the transfer of U.S. arms mirrors America's foreign policy goals. To what extent do U.S. arms transfers reflect a concern for human rights and democracy? As a foreign policy instrument, do U.S. arms transfer patterns mark a transition between Cold War and post-Cold War worlds? To address these questions, I examine the empirical linkage between U.S. foreign policy goals and arms export agreements with developing countries for the years 1981–2002. I use a two-stage model to evaluate the decision-making process. The first-stage addresses whether a country is eligible to receive U.S. arms. If a country successfully passes through the selection stage, it progresses to the second stage where a decision is made about the amount of arms transferred. I use a Heckman model to estimate empirically the determinants of arms at both the initial selection stage and the subsequent amount stage. The findings indicate that during the Cold War years, human rights were not a significant determinant of arms transfers—although democracy was positively linked to U.S. arms in the selection stage. In the post-Cold War period, both human rights and democracy had a meaningful impact in determining the eligibility of a country to receive arms.     

Assessing a Decade of U.S. Military Strategy in Africa

The past decade has witnessed a sea change in U.S. military engagement in Africa. With the establishment of a new permanent command, significant increases in security assistance, and the pioneering of new tactics driven by technical innovations in intelligence analysis and drone warfare, the U.S. military has become an integral player in the continent's security. Nevertheless, there exist few assessments of the extent to which increased U.S. military engagement is paying dividends. This article examines how the current U.S. military strategy in Africa is different from those in the past and whether it is meeting the stated U.S. objectives of neutralizing transnational threats while contributing to the continent's political stability. It finds that U.S. performance is mixed, with recent successes at containing the spread of al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliated groups coming at the potential detriment of longer-term regional security. The article concludes with recommendations aimed at helping the armed forces of the U.S. and other regional actors better fight terrorism while managing political risks.     

Arab national security in the 1980's. Threats and strategies

Scholars increasingly are accepting the empirical generalization that democracies almost never go to war with each other, and infrequently even engage in militarized disputes with each other. It has not been clear, however, whether the rarity of conflict between democracies is caused by some aspect of being democratic, or whether it is caused by some other variable or variables that may be correlated with democracy. Using data on all independent states for the period 1946–1986, we examine the effects of political system type, distance, wealth, economic growth, alliances, and political stability. The results suggest that, although most of the other variables do have an effect, as hypothesized, there still seems to be an independent effect of political system type: democracies engage in militarized disputes with each other less than would be expected by chance. The effect may be enhanced by political stability; that is, states which can be perceived as stable democracies are less likely to be involved in disputes with other democracies.     

Is French defence policy becoming more Atlanticist?

France is one of the most prominent European military powers and a strong proponent of an independent European military capability. Yet, France’s actions since 2009 suggest that it may be prioritizing the transatlantic relationship over the development of the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy. Does this signal a fundamental Atlanticist shift in the way that France envisions its future defence and security, or does it simply signal a temporary re-evaluation of French Europeanist security ambitions? Our analysis attempts to answer whether there is presently an Atlanticist shift evident in French foreign policy, and whether any such shift is rooted in a desire to preserve French influence through international institutions such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This paper combines elite interviews with content analysis of French media comparing the current time with the mid-1990s to determine whether there is a shift in how defence and security issues are discussed and, if so, whether that signals a fundamental change. We find that, while there is a shift, it does not necessarily indicate a more Atlanticist posture, but suggests rather a pragmatic move to further French security goals through the most effective institutional mechanisms available.     

The Interdependence of U.S. Troop Deployments and Trade in the Developing World

The relationship between political conflict and trade has contributed to a riveting discussion in international relations about whether trade produces conflict, or whether conflict itself reduces trade. Most studies proxy "the flag" using militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). However, extensions of "the flag" might well obtain in environments short of MIDs. A more general way to proxy the flag is troop deployments. The deployment of military troops is an essential element of foreign policy. Using panel data for 126 developing countries from 1965 to 2002 and a two-stage least square approach, this essay investigates the relationship between trade and United States troop deployments. We find that trade and troops have a nonrecursive relationship: trade follows the flag and troops follow trade. Given the increased insecurity in the world today, the results are timely and reinforce previous research about the reciprocal relationship between the flag and trade.     

A critical assessment of Britain's Africa policy

A critical assessment of Britain's Africa policy Comfort Ero1 A number of Africa-related initiatives have emerged in the four years since UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's New Labour government assumed power. Many of them are welcome, suggesting a dynamic and different approach compared to the ad hoc methods of the past. Formulation of an Africa policy is best understood in the context of the government's claim that it will reshape Britain's international agenda. Without overstating the position of Africa—it remains ‘in Whitehall mandarin terms somewhere below South Asia and Latin America’—this paper contends that the continent is symbolically important in the struggle to broaden Britain's global role. But there are serious concerns about whether the policy has been well thought out and what it means in terms of resource commitments. For a government that has staked its reputation on ‘delivery’, it is still too early to tell whether the pledges will be followed through or whether they will amount to another policy initiative that promised much but delivered little.     

Analysing cultural proximity: Islamic Relief Worldwide and Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh

Based on fieldwork carried out on Islamic Relief's relief programme for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, this article contributes to the debate on whether Muslim aid agencies bring added value when working with Muslim beneficiaries in Muslim areas. The author explores the significance of religion in relations between actors in the aid process and argues that a common religion does not necessarily override political, social, and cultural divisions. The article questions whether it is useful to claim that Muslim solidarity exists in the aid process when in practice it is difficult to have any meaningful engagement with religion in the field.     

Should liberals sometimes prefer dictatorships to democracies? A closer look at the Hayek thesis

Is liberal autocracy preferable to illiberal democracy, as Friedrich Hayek forcefully argued? This article examines two main problems with this argument. First, it seems counterintuitive for autocracies to be combined with liberalism, or for democracies to exist without essential liberal freedoms. Second, it is difficult to establish sound criteria for when a particular democracy is inferior to a given dictatorship. Since there is a difference between those types of liberal freedoms that are sometimes protected in dictatorships and those that are (almost) never protected, assessing the quality of liberties brings us closer to a solution on both issues. It is argued that whether an autocracy can be genuinely liberal, and whether liberals should sometimes prefer autocracy to democracy, depends on how we rank economic freedoms compared to other freedoms.     

Determinants of Military Strategy, 1903–1994: A Quantitative Empirical Test

Military strategy is centrally important to understanding the causes, conduct, and outcomes of war. Several foreign policy theories make predictions as to what military strategies a state will choose. This article presents the first quantitative, empirical tests of hypotheses of strategy choice. Analysis was conducted on a random sample of country-years taken from the population of all countries from the years 1903 to 1994. Military strategy is classified as being either maneuver, attrition, or punishment. Empirical findings reveal that democracies and industrialized states are more likely to choose maneuver strategies, and that a state's own experiences affect the likelihood of it choosing maneuver. Factors found not to affect strategy choice include terrain, the level of external threat, troop quality, whether a state is democratizing, whether a state is a mixed regime, whether a state is a military regime, and vicarious experiences.     

Does the Clash of Civilisations Paradigm Provide a Persuasive Explanation of International Politics after September 11th?

In the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks it is not unreasonable for scholars of international relations to begin to question whether existing paradigms continue to be of relevance in understanding the structure and process of the international system. This article focuses on Samuel Huntington's clash of civilisations paradigm to determine whether it may provide a more meaningful and persuasive lens to view the world after September 11th, by undertaking a thorough analysis of its underlying assumptions. This paper will argue that the clash of civilisations paradigm suffers from a number of serious weaknesses, particularly in its causal arguments, that undermine its usefulness and relevance to increasing our understanding of international relations generally, let alone international relations after September 11th.     

Can the EU be a serious security actor in Asia?

Following the US “pivot” to Asia, the European Union (EU) announced its own pivot to Asia in 2012 with stepped-up engagement. A flurry of high-level visits to Asia, and in particular, Southeast Asia, by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy followed. The EU is looking for a much more comprehensive engagement of Asia, but at the same time, within Asia; there is always this nagging doubt as to whether the EU can be a serious security actor in Asia. This short brief surveys the constructive role that the EU can play in Asia and argues that the EU should stop fretting about whether it is seen as a serious security actor in Asia and instead focus on what it can do best and do its best in Asia.     

俄罗斯的“影子经济”：变化历程、影响因素与趋势判断

本文以俄罗斯影子经济的发展与变化历程为基础,分析了其形成并不断扩大规模的7个主要影响因素,并据此指出俄罗斯影子经济虽然目前已经摆脱了“非法”和“犯罪”等主要特征,但能否根治还取决于其法制建设、税制改革、贫富差距等状况能否得到根本的改善。     

世界大变局与中美日三国战略选择

在世界大变局中,战后国际格局重大变化的主要标志是“世界老二”易位。苏联、日本皆不例外;21世纪以来欧盟也由盛转衰。未来国际格局可能有三种前景:1.中美两极对抗体制;2.中美竞争合作的“两极多元体制”;3.世界各大力量多元并存,构建多元一体的人类命运共同体。这要看世界潮流是走向和平多边主义还是暴力多边主义。中国实现伟大复兴后的战略选择是“济弱扶倾”,为世界可持续发展与可持续安全做贡献。日本面临的战略选择是:继续在《日本国宪法》下走和平发展道路,还是修改宪法,成为“能战国家”的一员,加入暴力强权的多边主义?坚持开放的地区主义与国际协调,还是搞排他经济集团,远交近攻,以中国为竞争对手?利用中美对立从中渔利,还是促进中美协调而避免在中美之间“选边站”?妥善处理中日两国围绕钓鱼岛归属认知争议和台湾问题,还是重走历史老路?囿于冷战思维和传统权力政治的现实主义决策逻辑,同中国搞战略对抗,还是树立共同、综合、合作、可持续安全的新安全观,与中国加强合作?这些战略选择将关乎未来30年的中日关系。     

The effects of IMF programs on U.S. foreign direct investment in the developing world

Given the popular wisdom that the U.S. government influences IMF policies and tends to support the business community, it might be expected that IMF programs benefit U.S. firms abroad and thus borrower nations are attractive destinations for U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI). Surprisingly, no study has tested the impact of IMF loans on U.S. FDI. Controlling for common explanations in the literature, we use a treatment effects model and interviews with IMF staff researchers to investigate whether countries under different kinds of IMF programs receive more U.S. FDI than countries not under IMF arrangements. Using panel data for 126 developing countries from 1980 to 2003, we find that IMF borrowers tend to be more attractive to U.S. investors but not all IMF programs have the same effect. Our findings suggest that differences in loan duration, the extent of borrower input in policy decisions, and loan amounts affect borrowers’ leverage with the Fund and the U.S.     

Using Big Data and Algorithms to Determine the Effect of Geographically Targeted Advertising on Vote Intention: Evidence From the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

We develop a new conceptualization of political advertising effects by looking at the effect of the marginal advertising dollar during the heat of presidential campaigns. We argue that in contrast to other studies investigating effects of political ads, our approach is more apt to capture the natural environment in which political ads are encountered during a presidential campaign. We focus on the intense inundation of political ads voters are confronted with in swing states in the weeks leading up to the presidential election, and argue that it is unclear a priori whether we should expect advertising to affect vote intention in that critical circumstance. We empirically validate this hypothesis using a trove of data from the 2012 campaign: daily polling in media markets around the country, detailed data on all registered voters in the country, all TV advertisements by market and exact airtime, and the entire Twitter corpus. We find that neither overall increases in advertising spending nor partisan imbalances in spending expanded the candidates’ electorate. In fact, total Designated Market Area (DMA)-level spending significantly moderates a negative relationship between spending advantages and advantages in vote intention, suggesting a boomerang effect of additional spending late in the campaign. In closing, we discuss the ramifications of our findings for future research, and stress the importance of research tracking advertising effects.     

Intergovernmental policy makes transnational politics? The unusually transnational politics of TTIP

Abstract

When the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations were underway, its politics were distinctively transnational. Numerous alliances between European and American industry associations advocated an ambitious agreement to mitigate the effects of conflicting rules. Some civic interest groups also closely cooperated to shape the agreement, while a broad, loose transatlantic coalition of civic interest groups opposed it. The extent of transnationalism in TTIP was greater than what had come before in the transatlantic relationship and what is evident in contemporaneous analogous trade negotiations. This article argues that while the salience of a trade negotiation affects whether societal actors mobilize, it is not sufficient to prompt transnational cooperation. Rather transnational cooperation stems primarily from what the actors are seeking to achieve and whether they have a motive and opportunity to work together. By clarifying the conditions under which transnational cooperation is more likely, this article informs the emerging literature on the new politics of trade. By making the case that the motives to mobilize and cooperate require distinct analysis, it contributes to the literature on transnationalism.     

NATO and the Arctic: is the Atlantic alliance a cold war relic in a peaceful region now faced with non-military challenges?

Abstract

This article analyzes which role the Atlantic Alliance plays in the Arctic and whether it can contribute to the security and territorial integrity of its members in the region. In a dramatic change from the cold war era, the Arctic is no longer at the center of a conflict between two hostile superpowers. But what can a basically military organization such as NATO – though with proven political functions – contribute to stabilizing the Arctic region if its major challenges are non-military? With regional challenges resulting mostly from globalization and climate change, it is open to question whether a military alliance such as NATO has the will and the capability to cope with them. We might thus need to look also at individual members’ interests and abilities besides searching for joint alliance action. If we find NATO not up to the challenges, which alternative institutions offer themselves for coping with the political conflicts and controversies in the Polar region?