权力和平转移的条件与中国和平崛起的外部条件

奥根斯基权力转移理论中关于权力和平转移条件的观点--从维护国际体系既存主导大国的利益和地位出发,竭力防止崛起国家改变国际权力分配的基本格局,并未从根本上回答权力如何和平转移的问题.权力转移理论的最新发展对权力和平转移的条件提出了不同观点.本文将评介这些观点并进一步研究崛起国家实现和平发展的条件,并将其运用于对中国和平崛起的考察中.     

论中美之间的海权矛盾

近来中美两国在海洋领域的摩擦引起了国际社会的关注。本文认为,中美海权矛盾主要源于美国。美国基于国家安全、地缘政治和军事战略考虑,企图在海洋领域对中国进行限制,以延阻中国和平崛起。中国海洋利益的拓展则加深了中美之间在海洋领域的矛盾。中美海权矛盾有逐步深化、规模加大、从黄海向南海转移的趋势,但不至于爆发全面海上武装冲突。中国在发展海权时,应处理好与美国在海洋领域的竞争与合作关系。     

构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角

权力转移导致中美战略竞争加剧，维护中美战略稳定成为攸关中美关系发展以及世界和平与稳定的重大问题。构建中美核战略稳定性框架是实现中美战略稳定的基石。传统战略稳定理论主要基于美苏两大对称性阵营的敌对关系，对于不对称性和动态权力转移背景下的中美核战略稳定性的理论解释力和实践指导性不足。基于非对称战略平衡视角，中美核战略稳定性框架应以保证中国第二次核打击能力为基础。在机制层面，中美要加强交流、协商和谈判以建立相关机制，逐渐形成中美核战略关系的共识，推动达成稳定中美核战略关系的协议、条约等法律性承诺，从而构建稳定中美核战略关系的政治框架。在结构层面，中国无需谋求与美国对等的核力量。统筹考虑军事效用和政治效果，构筑包括核实力、核威慑决心和核威慑信息传递的完备核威慑战略，确保处于弱势的中国拥有对美国进行核反击造成美不可承受损失的能力，是实现中美核战略稳定的关键。     

超越困境:2010年以来中美安全博弈及其影响

2010年前后,随着中国经济的快速赶超,东亚安全结构发生了重大变化。深感"权力转移"之忧的美国试图以"重返亚太"及"亚太再平衡"战略来缓阻中国崛起的势头,此战略调整客观上极大地刺激了东亚地区个别国家"借美制华"的念头,它们试图以制造安全事端来"引美入亚"。美国也愿借助这些国家对华挑衅来增强其亚太战略调整的效果。对此,和平崛起的中国不得不积极应对日益严峻的周边安全形势,采取"缓美抑边"之对策,即在维护国家主权与核心利益的前提下,缓和对美关系,同时坚决回击个别国家对中国主权的严重挑衅。中美之间的安全博弈虽有所加剧,但主客观条件决定了中美之间不会爆发新冷战,中美两国终将走出大国博弈的安全困境。此轮中美安全博弈对当今国际安全格局产生了很大影响,它导致中国战略西向,积极实施"一带一路"战略,中国在亚太国际安全格局中的地位有所上升;美国可能陷于东西两线作战的尴尬境地,美国在国际安全格局中的地位和作用有所下降;大国安全博弈中心西移,国际安全格局呈现某种"西升东降"之态势。     

中美经济相互依赖及其战略限度

作为美国对华战略的手段和结果,中美之间已经形成了较深的经济相互依赖。但这种经济相互依赖表现出的是典型的现实主义特征,而非自由主义色彩。权力和安全等要素渗透到两国的经济交往中。此外,中美之间还面临着台湾等现实问题的极大制约。在多重因素的共同影响下,中美经济相互依赖未必会导致和平。     

世界权力新格局中的中美关系

随着中国在国际体系内地位和作用的上升,中美两国形成了一个"G2"结构。在世界权力新格局下,中美两国和平共处符合国际利益和中美各自国家利益。和平共处要求两国互相对对方的核心利益作出调适。然而由于中美两国的相互误解和相互恐惧,美国不愿意为中国的核心利益调整其对华政策,而中国实力已经上升到可以要求美国作出这种调整了。面对国际新格局,中国应改变过去被动的对美政策,确立自身接触美国的新政策和新原则。为此,中国应积极寻找和建立与美国互动的新的国际制度平台。现阶段,东盟机制不失为一个可借用的有效平台。     

利益变化、角色转换和关系均衡——特朗普时期中美关系发展趋势

特朗普当选美国总统之后,美国外交出现新动向,中美关系也面临新的变数.特朗普政府对于美国国家利益的认知和排序有了新的调整,这和中国政府对于中国国家利益的排序与认知形成新的互动.以利益变化为基础,在特朗普时期中美将出现五大领域的角色转换,预示着中美关系在中短期内的双边互动模式.长期而言,中美关系的发展趋势是走向均衡.特朗普当选可能是加速了中美关系均衡时代的到来.中美两国在实力大致接近的均衡阶段,要尽快形成彼此认同和接受的秩序安排,共同促成权力的共处或者转移.     

美国对中国在非洲软权力的评估及启示

软权力增强是中国和平发展的重要表现之一。对中国在非洲软权力的评估是美国关注中国软权力的重要方面。最近几年,美国评估了中国在非洲发展软权力的内容、原因及对美国在非洲利益的影响。美国认为,中国在非洲重要的软权力资源包括中国的经济实力,以及对非洲的经济参与力度,中国提出团结互助、中非双赢和尊重非洲国家主权等重要原则,中国还注重扩大与非洲的文化交流。美国还认为,中、美两国在非洲并没有发生战略冲突,双方可以在非洲开展更多的合作,特别是在能源、卫生、农业及维和等领域。分析美国对中国在非洲软权力的全面评估对于中国发展对非洲关系具有启示作用。     

中美经济共生关系下的战略互需及选择

中美之间的经济互动已发展为一种共生关系。这种关系的形成为两国注入了战略互需的新内容,强化了彼此相互借重的迫切感:美国对外战略设计开始以中国为核心考虑对象,其东亚安全战略的施展和经济发展环境的营造有赖于中国的合作,而中国以经济发展为中心的和平发展战略也迫切需要美国的和平姿态。“经济相互依赖和平”是实现中美各自战略目标的必然选择。     

中美亚太战略竞争格局的形成、走势及管控

当前,在亚太特别是东亚和西太平洋地区,中美两国形成的竞争与合作并存且以竞争一面呈上升趋势的战略两强格局日渐明朗化。在该格局形成的过程中,中美两国综合实力对比的变化以及由此带来的核心利益调整属于结构性动因;两国国内政治因素以及中美之外第三方因素的复杂影响,进一步加速该格局的形成过程,构成了非结构性动因。伴随着中国综合国力急速腾升与美国国家实力相对衰落的结构性背景,中美亚太战略竞争关系中的缓和空间将进一步压缩,而其竞争空间将在经济、安全、政治、军事等领域全面展开。推动中美竞争机制呈现良性互动而非恶性循环,美国需放弃固守的霸权思维,适度分享责任与权力;中国也需给予更多耐心与定力。     

Sino-U.S. Confrontation over Chávez Regime Imminent?

The controversial Chávez government has complicated Sino- U.S. relations. However, China's presence in Venezuela does not pose a threat to U.S. national security,and, in the near future, confrontation between China and the United States over Venezuela is unlikely.     

International System and China’s Asia-Pacific Strategy

What impact does a shift in the global distribution of power have on the international order? According to the views of traditional realists,power transitions in the international order are usually accompanied by major wars,the best example being the two world wars of the twentieth century.China’s peaceful rise is conducive to the peace and stability of Asia and Pacific regions.The steady rise of China’s position and its role in dealing with international and regional problems have proved China’s success in...     

The Diplomacy of a Rising China in South Asia

The author argues that U.S. interest in Asia traditionally has been maintaining the balance of power to prevent the rise of any regional hegemony. Yet against this anti-hegemony objective is balanced an attempt to accommodate China. If China keeps this commitment, the United States will welcome the emergence of a China that is peaceful and prosperous and that cooperates with America to address common challenges and mutual interests.     

中日韩东亚共同体构想指导思想比较

中日韩对建立东亚共同体达成共识后,各界对东亚共同体的前景并不乐观。从各国关于东亚共同体构想的指导思想上看,日本是为了摆脱对美国的依赖,应对中国崛起,提高本国在东亚的竞争力和影响力;韩国是为了摆脱夹在中国和日本之间的"三明治"地位;而中国更多地从"和谐世界"理念出发,为本国的发展创造和平的环境。尽管中日韩对东亚共同体的意义和作用有深刻认识,但三国指导思想的相互矛盾影响了三国的切实合作,同时,现存的领土问题、主导权之争、美国因素等都是现实障碍。因此,处理好中日韩与美日韩的关系,加强中日韩合作是推动东亚共同体获得进展的关键。     

Alliance Forging or Partnership Building? China’s Policy in the Asia-Pacific under the Xi Administration

ABSTRACT

Should China forge a military alliance? Some scholars believe it should, others believe it should adhere to a policy of non-alignment. For China many risks are associated with military alliances. On the one hand, China would likely be involved in unwanted conflicts and confrontations created by potential allies. On the other hand, China would be bound to compete with the existing hegemon, the United States, which has already established a huge alliance system, to win more allies. China just cannot afford this. The intensified strategic competition between China and the United States may also lead to a new antagonism in the Asia-Pacific region. Nevertheless, China’s ‘non-alliance’ policy does not mean China has to abandon the development of strategic cooperation with other countries or renounce the right to build a cooperative partnership network. Since Xi Jinping came to power, the Chinese government has continuously expanded its strategic partnership network in the region. This policy could avoid US-China competition over military allies and enhance strategic trust between China and its neighbouring countries, creating conditions for China’s peaceful development and global strategic stability.     

U.S. Grand Strategy Following the George W. Bush Presidency

Debates over U.S. grand strategy have devoted a disproportionate level of attention to the War on Terror itself rather than the evolving strategic environment. Challenges including an impending shift in the balance of power, structural deficits, and divided public opinion will significantly impact the policy options available to government leaders, but they have not been adequately addressed. This article analyzes the options available for U.S. grand strategy following the George W. Bush presidency by relating key U.S. national interests with domestic and international policy constraints on the horizon. The analysis concludes that the United States must adopt a defensive grand strategy to rebuild popular consensus, to prevent further strain on the military, and to consolidate its gains in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, this strategy will require flexible coalitions, not formal international organizations, because of a significant divergence of security interests and capabilities with its European allies.     

How Could China Bargain for a Peaceful Accommodation?

China's rise is a bargaining process between China and the outside world—especially with the United States. This article suggests two strategies, “socialization” and “legitimation,” which a rising power can use to seek “accommodation for identity” with the hegemon. Using China's peaceful rise after the Cold War as a case study, the essay then examines how China employed these two strategies to reach bargaining deals on the arms control regimes and anti-separatist movements in Xinjiang with the outside world. It concludes that the United States needs to take China's bargaining efforts seriously and consider possible peaceful accommodation with China.     

论南海问题中的美国因素

在影响南海问题的外部力量中,美国是最重要的第三方。冷战时期,美国对南海问题主要采取不介入和不表态的中立政策。冷战结束以来,美国开始关注和介入南海问题,并逐步采取具有明显倾向的政治和军事干预政策。美国的介入和干预加大了南海问题的复杂性和中国解决南海问题的难度。     

Sino-U.S. Cooperation in North Korean Nuclear Issue

China and the United States have cooperated closely in resolving the second North Korean nuclear crisis.China and the United States have worked together with South Korea, Russia and Japan to prevent the North Korean nuclear issue from spiraling out of control, and they have also tried to make progress in the six-party talks. Despite differences over the issue, both sides are maintaining the momentum of cooperation with increasing mutual understanding and trust. The current U.S.-North Korea rapprochement has progressed quickly, adding a new factor in Sino-U.S. cooperation. Apart from bilateral contact with North Korea, the United States is insisting on a multilateral approach, continuing to persuade China to share responsibility for a nuclear-free Peninsula, and jointly advancing the process in the second phase set forth in the February 13 Agreement on Initial Actions. China's role,therefore, remains indispensable.     

Sino-U.S. Relations in the New Century

On September 21, 2005, the Deputy Secretary of the United States Robert B. Zoellick in his speech at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations pointed out that, the United States agrees that China is taking a peacefully developing path and it＇s a successful way of opening and joining the economic globalization that ＂＇no other newly emerged power has ever taken.＂ Zoellick emphasized that the United States should ＂encourage China to be a responsible stakeholder in the international system. ＂ If both the United States and China take the strategic interest into consideration, Zoellick＇s speech will definitely have positive impact on the Sino- U.S. relations ＇future.