试析中国与印尼经贸关系存在的问题

近年来,中国与印尼经贸合作关系发展很快,两国双边贸易和中国对印尼基础设施建设的投资顺利发展,但也存在一些问题和障碍,尤其是中国一些商品对印尼的冲击引起印尼部分企业界的不满。本文拟对两国经贸关系存在问题,尤其是印尼纺织服装业受中国产品的冲击进行分析,提出解决问题的意见,以利于促进两国经贸关系的进一步发展。     

The Paradigm Shifts in Bangladesh and China Relations in the New Global Political Architecture

Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Bangladesh in October 2016 has dramatically uplifted the strategic value of Bangladesh to the world and presented new opportunities to Bangladesls'security,political and economic interests.Bangladesh and China have agreed to elevate'the closer comprehensive partnership of cooperation'to a'strategic partnership.'China's B&R initiative is perhaps a major project for Bangladesh to promote economic development and to connect itself with global markets.     

B&R,AIIB: Opportunities for Enhancing FDI in South Asia

Implementation of China's Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (B&R) initiative and the advent of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) have redirected attention to infrastructure building in economic development.The domestically driven B&R policy is rewriting the geoeconomic and geopolitical map of Eurasia,while AIIB catalyzes a positive change in the dynamics of international development cooperation.They provide opportunities for South Asia which has economic potential but limited foreign investment inflow thus far.     

“Trade with the Devil”: Rubber,Cold War Embargo,and US–Indonesian Relations, 1951–1956

This article examines the issue of rubber in US–Indonesian relations in the 1950s. Indonesia, attempting to promote its economic development, sought to sell natural rubber to the Communist People's Republic of China. In so doing, it risked alienating the United States, which for its part led anti-PRC trade embargo efforts while at that same time attempting to woo Third World neutrals such as Indonesia. The article explores the course and complexities of this issue on both sides, and concludes that, in the end, Washington decided that enforcing an increasingly questionable rubber embargo was not worth a rupture in relations with Jakarta. It also finds that President Eisenhower, although keenly aware of the issues at stake, did not provide the decisive leadership that would allow Washington to take the initiative, rather than react to circumstances, regarding the sale of rubber to the People's Republic of China.     

印尼对华关系的背景：1950年印尼与中国建交前后

本文论述了印尼哈达内阁执政期间印尼与中国建交的国内政治背景、国际政治背景和印尼国内的华人因素。正处于从联邦共和国向印尼共和国过渡的这一政治敏感期，使右翼的哈达内阁基于印尼的根本利益选择了与中国建交。但哈达的政治立场又使印尼对华关系摇摆不定。美国反对印尼发展对华关系使印尼当局受到巨大压力，但印尼并未完全按照美国的意愿行事。印尼国内两派华人的对立，对中印（尼）关系产生了两种相反的作用力，使印尼对华关系的背景更加复杂。本文借鉴了对外政策分析的某些理论，并依据历史事实，力图对印尼领导人在中印（尼）两国关系发展中的作用做出客观公正的评价。     

金融危机对印度尼西亚经济的影响及其应对危机的措施

一、由美国次贷引发的金融危机对印度尼西亚经济的影响 早在2007年2月,美国抵押贷款风险开始浮出水面,美国第二大次级抵押贷款机构新世纪金融公司(New Century Financial)发布盈利预警,3月宣布濒临破产,4月4日就申请破产保护.     

Revisiting elites,transitions and founding elections: An unexpected caller from Indonesia

This article assesses the usefulness of the literature on democratic transitions for analysing recent regime change in Indonesia. A first stage in this literature emphasized the autonomy of elite relations (whether unified or disunified) and the roles adopted by elites (for example, soft‐liners, minimalists and swingmen). A second stage contextualized elite behaviours, addressing such variables as economic crisis and the intrinsic properties of different modes of transition. However, some limitations in this conceptualization are revealed by attempts to apply it in the Indonesian case. Specifically, elite relations are difficult to classify empirically and role choices remain highly ambiguous. Further, the notion that economic crisis compels elites to democratize, and second, the argument that transition by opposition‐led ‘replacement’ leads to far‐reaching changes and authoritarian backlash, are unsupported by Indonesian data. Two principal conclusions are reached: Indonesian democracy has good prospects for consolidating, and the literature on transitions has limited capacity to explain this benign outcome.     

What a Little Democracy Can Do: Comparing Trajectories of Reform in Malaysia and Indonesia

Economic crisis sparked political mobilization in both Malaysia and Indonesia in the late 1990s, but with very different results. Reformism in competitive electoral authoritarian Malaysia took a largely electoral route, yielding marginal, top-down institutional change and the enhancement of democratic norms. The hegemonic electoral authoritarian regime in neighbouring Indonesia, on the other hand, was toppled by a sudden upsurge of grass-roots protest, encouraged by elite factionalism. Changes to Indonesian political institutions and personnel since then have disappointed many reformers, and mounting cynicism endangers the entrenchment of democratic political culture. The article argues that a relatively more democratic system grants more space for autonomous challengers to organize and mobilize over the long term than a less open system does. Specifically, civil society agents in the former may accumulate both social capital and its organizational-level counterpart, coalitional capital, facilitating mobilization. Such a regime, though, is better able to contain or otherwise defuse protest than is a more autocratic variant. The latter is thus more vulnerable to dramatic collapse, despite its fragmented political opposition, and faces serious hurdles in subsequent democratic consolidation.     

驯服印尼激进民族主义——肯尼迪政府对印尼的政策（1961—1963年）

肯尼迪政府上台后调整了对印尼政策,在促成西伊利安争端和平解决之后,在印尼发起了新的一轮外交攻势,试图抓住当前美印(尼)关系的转机,通过经济手段加强印尼与西方联系的纽带,把印尼注意力由国际事务转向解决国内问题,以促进改造印尼民族主义,影响印尼政治构成和国内外政策的长远目标。这一时期,美国改造印尼民族主义的政策,英国维持在东南亚的势力与影响的目标,以及苏加诺在地区内部消除一切殖民主义残余的努力之间产生了错综复杂、难以调和的矛盾。印尼苏加诺政权对于来自美国的压力也不会轻易就范。肯尼迪政府的对印尼政策不免于以失望告终。     

论印尼华裔政党与参政

2004年印尼大选已于4月份举行。国会已经修订并陆续颁布与大选有关的各项法令。中央议会将产生550名议员。正副总统将由直接选举产生。印尼华人如果按占总人口3%计算,最少有800万人(一说已超过1000万人)。在1966年至1998年苏哈托军人政权统治期间,由于受种族歧视政策的迫害,华人毫无政治权力可言,处于二等公民的地位。1998年5月苏哈托政府垮台后,华人命运才出现转机,华人社团和政党犹如雨后春笋般涌现出来,参政活动十分活跃。2001年至2002年,又有两个华人政党在政治舞台上诞生:陈有福和陈瑞霖领导的印尼民族成员党(2001年11月)和蔡华喜博士…     

近期的印尼经济形势与政策调整

印尼经济经过1998年严重衰退后，从1999年和2000年开始缓慢走向复苏，但复苏的道路依然漫长。2001年印尼经济仍会增长，估计基本维持去年5％左右的水平，但不排除发生意外的可能。如果印尼再次发生政治和社会危机，印尼经济又将跌入危机的深渊。在印尼经济恢复的过程中，政治起着非常关键的作用。     

‘Diplomatic Divergence: the Japanese and British Responses to Indonesia’s Confrontation of Malaysia 1963–1966’

While Indonesia’s policy of Confrontation towards Malaysia brought it into direct military conflict with Britain, this same event prompted Japan to pursue its first explicit postwar diplomatic initiative. Due to different strategic goals for the region, Britain and Japan’s approaches to Indonesian bellicosity were markedly different. Notably, while Britain took a hard-line stance with President Sukarno, Japan in contrast took a lenient approach eschewing economic and diplomatic isolation of Indonesia. With a latent warming in Anglo–Japanese ties beginning in this decade, this paper demonstrates that despite their antithetical approaches to this Southeast Asian crisis bilateral relations were not adversely affected.

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1963年印(尼)马对抗与东南亚地区之大国角力

1963年1月印尼因反对英国主导下的马来西亚计划而发起"印(尼)马对抗",在国际冷战背景下相关大国陆续介入,其中美国为防止印尼倒向共产主义阵营以及避免因《澳新美安全条约》而卷入军事冲突,在继续对印尼援助的基础上力主由亚洲国家自行调停解决,但美国政府的继续援助措施遭到包括英、澳、新(西兰)、马等国以及美国国会的强烈反对;英国、澳大利亚及新西兰在支持马来西亚成立和维护西南太平洋地区安全稳定的基础上,坚决反对印尼的对抗政策;日本在美国支持下积极重返东南亚市场,因此希望该地区保持稳定并提出池田斡旋计划;而苏、中两国从两大阵营对立和反帝反殖角度,分别从物质和舆论方面支持苏加诺的对抗政策。通过对印(尼)马对抗爆发期间大国角力问题的探讨,显示出东南亚地区冲突中所包含的冷战与非殖民化、革命与发展、东西方对抗与地缘政治矛盾等诸多复杂因素。     

印度尼西亚工业化进程及其政策演变

印度尼西亚自1945年实现政治独立后,把工业化确定为实现经济独立和现代化的道路。在65年来的工业化过程中,尽管遵循了与东亚工业化国家类似的工业化道路——进口替代向出口导向的战略转变以及政府干预工业化,但由于自身的自然条件和政治体制的不同,其工业化的道路有着不同于其他国家的特点。     

Strengthening the rule of law in Indonesia: the EU and the combat against illegal logging

Indonesia is an emerging power, but one problem particular taints the success story: corruption. While corruption affects all public policies, its disastrous effects are most visible in forestry. Indonesia is still home to the third largest rainforests in the world, but the country is losing its forests fast. One main driver of deforestation is illegal logging. The strengthening of the rule of law is therefore a key to stop or at least to slow down Indonesia’s deforestation rate. The European Union has been keen to support the Indonesian government in its fight against illegal logging in accordance with the European Forest Law Enforcement Governance and Trade Policy (FLEGT). In September 2013, Brussels and Jakarta have signed a FLEGT Voluntary Partnership Agreement (a FELGT-VPA, more commonly known as “Timber Pact”). Under the Timber Pact, Jakarta promises an overhaul of its forest governance. This reform of forest governance is costly to the Indonesian government, in financial and political terms. After all, many actors profited from the old system. The question arises why the Indonesian government agreed to the Timber Pact. In the first part of the analysis, a rationalist perspective is taken to answer this question, focusing on the political and economical gains for the decision-makers. The second part looks at the issue from a constructivist angle and shows how the norm “fight illegal logging” fitted into the normative framework of Indonesian politics. By combining a rationalist and a constructivist perspective, a broad picture of successful EU norm diffusion is painted.     

印度尼西亚：2012～2013年回顾与展望

2012年,印尼政治、经济延续了2011年的发展态势,政治社会形势总体稳定、党派斗争加剧、暴力冲突时有发生。在经济方面,在世界经济萎靡和疲软的环境下仍然保持了宏观经济的稳定、较低的通胀率和较高的经济增长率。2013年,印尼政府仍面临国内外政治经济形势的诸多不确定性,主要国际机构和印尼央行对2013年印尼的经济预期乐观,私人消费和投资仍将成为2013年经济增长的主要引擎。随着世界经济缓慢复苏以及主要贸易伙伴经济增长的提高,出口对经济增长的作用将好于2012年。     

印度尼西亚海洋安全思维与合作逻辑

对地理特征的认知塑造一个国家的海洋安全思维。印尼具有“群岛特征”(陆地分散、海上邻国多和海域广阔)和“海权特征”(海上战略位置、良港和重要航道、海洋资源)两组地理特点,分别指向海洋“作为威胁”和“作为秩序来源”两种相互矛盾的认知模式。如何处理这对矛盾成为厘清印尼海洋安全思维发展的核心问题。在民族国家建构初期和冷战背景下,印尼着重应对与“群岛特征”相关的安全威胁。以苏西洛为转折点,印尼开始追求“海权特征”带来的秩序福利。群岛海洋安全思维的长期实践塑造了当前印尼海洋安全现状和合作逻辑:“重陆轻海”政策导致海洋安全能力落后,使印尼重视提升海上执法能力的务实合作;海盗问题的跨界性质使印尼提供安全公共产品的意愿较低,产生了“搭便车”的合作逻辑;1982年《联合国海洋法公约》确认了印尼的“岛国内海”权利,该公约被印尼视为海洋安全的制度保护伞和合作的底线。     

当前印尼的能源困境及对策分析

印尼是传统的能源大国,油气煤炭及非传统能源储量非常丰富。近年来,随着能源可采储量的枯竭,印尼能源行业供给渠道不稳定,资源禀赋与资源开发地区不平衡以及人口环境压力等问题日益凸显,能源供不应求逐渐成为制约印尼经济发展的一大瓶颈。为此,印尼政府积极采取措施,在提高国内传统能源利用率的同时,积极引入国际合作,开发利用新能源。     

印度尼西亚对于中国崛起的认知

本文主要基于半结构化访谈的方法,对共计81名印尼外交官和学者的访谈内容进行分析。这两类人员代表着塑造印尼外交政策的官僚群体和非官僚行为者。本研究对受访者关于中国及其对外政策的认知进行实证研究。首先是分析受访者对于中国的总体印象,然后进一步研究他们对于中国外交政策行为的看法。可以说,从最初的认知分析出发,几乎所有受访者大体上都认为,中国是一个拥有巨大能力的国家。研究还发现,对中国持有较正面看法的人数,远远超过持负面看法的人,后者将中国看作是印尼当前的或潜在的威胁。就中国外交政策行为而言,绝大多数受访人认为,中国有着实现目标的决心、务实、拥有协调良好的官僚机构。他们认为,其他国家,包括印尼,在执行对外政策时也应该具备这些特征。本项初步研究所呈现的各种观点表明,至少在作为取样的受访人当中,关于中国形象的认知远非一致。不过,他们的中国认知也不能保证他们认为崛起的中国就是印尼应当依赖的唯一的信得过的合作伙伴。就此而言,雅加达和北京在外交和经济领域开展更多的互利互惠往来,将会为进一步改善印尼与中国的关系铺平道路。     

1945——1965年间印尼乡镇华人的生活——传统性与当地化的两个侧面

本文以印尼归侨的口述资料为基本材料,论述了东爪哇省多隆亚公镇和西加里曼丹省邦戛镇两地华人的社会经济生活,着重从传统性和当地化这两个侧面,分析了以两地为代表的印尼乡镇华人生活的共性和个性,指出了特殊背景下的时代潮流冲击与长期的潜移默化这两种社会力量对印尼乡镇华人生活的不同影响.