特朗普执政与美国对华政策的新阶段（英文）

While President Trump's governing concept and policy preferences would inevitably affect the US agenda and pattern of interaction with China, fundamentally it is the political, economic and social changes within the two countries that have driven the transformation of bilateral relations. The new phase of the United States' China policy has thus put forward higher requirements for bilateral interactions.     

美欧气候变化政策差异与合作前景（英文）

As the Biden administration actively rectifies Trump's climate policy, climate cooperation and coordination between the US and the EU is expected to witness significant progress. Although the convergence of transatlantic climate policies will have a positive impact on global climate governance, but with their fundamental dispute over policy orientation left intact, interaction between the two sides can still be plagued by their respective domestic politics and different economic interests.     

Nelson Mandela: Partisan and Peacemaker

To analyze Nelson Mandela's personal attributes relevant to peacemaking and negotiation, the study considers personality traits derived from biographical data rather than quantitative content analysis. Since Mandela's personality eludes ready characterization in terms of high or low levels of a given trait and also comprises traits apparently in tension, the analysis offered here highlights ostensibly opposing characteristics, and the evolution of Mandela's personal characteristics over time, with specific attention to his self-identity, interpersonal orientation, and political outlook. It identifies distinctive aspects of Mandela's peacemaking practice, as well as aspects that may be common among accomplished peacemakers and negotiators. It concludes that Mandela's seemingly contradictory personality traits and high degree of cognitive complexity enabled him to fulfill the different roles of partisan negotiator and of mediator/peacemaker, and equipped him, more so than other revolutionaries, for the transition to post-liberation leader.     

Contradictions in the TrumpAdministration’s Russia Policy

Since President Donald Trump took office,the United States’policy toward Russia has experienced upswings and downturns,oscillating between opposite sides and demonstrating starker contradictions.An in-depth study of the Trump administration’s Russia policy will assist in deepening our knowledge and understanding of the nature of USRussia relations,so that we can better grasp the development trend of the relationship and provide a useful reference for China to more proactively handle its own relations with other major powers.     

Fueling the Fire: Violent Metaphors,Trait Aggression,and Support for Political Violence

The recent concurrence of violent political rhetoric and violence against political targets in the U.S. and abroad has raised public concern about the effects of language on citizens. Building from theoretical foundations in aggression research, I fielded two nationally representative survey experiments and a third local experiment preceding the 2010 midterm elections to investigate support for violence against political authority. Subjects were randomly assigned to view one of two forms of the same political advertisements. Across all three experiments, mild violent metaphors multiply support for political violence among aggressive citizens, especially among young adults. Aggressive personality traits also predict support for political violence in both national studies. This work identifies dynamic roots of violent political orientations and reveals for the first time surprising interactions between this elite discourse and personality traits in citizens.     

特朗普“美国优先”的诉求与制约（英文）

"America First," featuring its appeals in prioritization and choice of new policies, has become a constant motif of Trump's diplomacy, but shortcomings of leadership capabilities and constraints from domestic politics have dulled its initial cutting edge. Ironically, Trump's confusion in strategic thinking of "America First" might make the US the biggest loser of the concept he has long advocated.     

从文化视角解读乔治·凯南的长电和 X 文章

乔治.凯南是美国著名的"苏联通",也是美国"遏制政策"的提出者。1946 年他向美国发回长电,1947 年又发表 X 论文,分析苏联的思维方式和行为根源,在美国政坛和民众中引起震动。时隔半个多世纪,我们再分析凯南的这两篇文章,仍被他惊人的洞察力和预言所折服。他对苏联的民族性格、苏联外交的行为方式有着深刻理解,他的这一认识正是建立在对俄罗斯( 苏联) 历史文化的深刻认识的基础之上。     

The Redirection of US Foreign Strategy against the Background of Globalization

American foreign strategy has had strong continuity since World War Ⅱ despite differences among successive presidents.Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign revealed ideas and goals for US strategy and strategy adjustment that differ significantly from those of predecessors.The decline in relative gains and rise in cost for US involvement in globalization are reasons for Trump to redirect US foreign strategy.The relative decrease of both US trade and foreign direct investment in the US,amid security threats and the identity crisis of the American people,has tremendously increased the pricetag for US involvement in globalization.     

特朗普“美国优先”安全战略及其对中美关系的影响（英文）

The idea of "America First" is reflected throughout Trump's first National Security Strategy. The report, which reveals the US perception of China as strategic competitor and return to great-power politics, will usher in a new era for bilateral relations that requires China's well-prepared response.     

Ukraine's relations with the West since the Orange Revolution

Abstract

This article argues that many of Ukraine's problems are long-standing and remain unresolved because government policies are virtual (i.e. do not conform to official documents or statements) thereby reducing the effectiveness of the West's (here understood primarily as NATO and the EU) engagement with Ukraine and the ability of Kyiv to pursue its declared foreign policy objectives. The article discusses Ukraine's relations with the West through cycles of Disinterest, Partnership and Disillusionment. Under Presidents Leonid Kravchuk and Leonid Kuchma three cycles equated to Kravchuk's presidency (Disinterest, 1991–94), Kuchma's first term (Partnership, 1994–99) and second term (Disillusionment, 2000–04). Three cycles partially repeated itself during Viktor Yushchenko's presidency with Partnership (2005–06) after the Orange Revolution followed by Disillusionment (2007–09), often described as ‘Ukraine fatigue’. US Disinterest in Ukraine from 2009 is an outgrowth of the Barrack Obama administrations ‘re-set’ policies with Russia resembling the ‘Russia-first’ policies of the early 1990s George W. Bush administration. US Disinterest covers the late Yushchenko era and continued into the Yanukovych presidency. The West held out a hope of Partnership for Viktor Yanukovych following his February 2010 election after taking at face value his claim of becoming a more democratic leader, compared with during the 2004 elections, coupled with an expectation he would bring political stability to Ukraine. Partnership quickly evaporated into Disillusionment the following year.     

Charles de Gaulle: The Warrior as Statesman

Charles de Gaulle is primarily remembered as the leader of “Free France” between 1940 and 1945, as well as for his time as president of the Fourth and Fifth Republics. This article explores some of the sources of his political belief system, using his military writings of the 1920s and 1930s before he became a celebrated politician. It suggests that his political views can only be understood as being influenced by his experiences as a soldier and his reflections thereon in those military writings.     

The power of Trump-speak: populist crisis narratives and ontological security

Abstract

For most observers, the election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States (US) came as a shock. This has been widely recast as the culmination of the American public’s long-standing dissatisfaction with the political elite and deep-seated frustrations with broader socio-economic conditions. We argue that the Trump campaign’s success also stemmed from its effective use of an emotionally charged, anti-establishment crisis narrative. With insights from political psychology, we examine the socio-linguistic mechanisms that underlie the effectiveness of ‘Trump-speak’ through both quantitative and qualitative content analysis of Trump’s communications toolkit during the 2016?US presidential election campaign. We show that his leadership legitimation claims rest significantly upon ‘crisis talk’ that puts his audience in a loss frame with nothing to lose and explain why ‘crisis talk’ impacts on political behaviour. As we demonstrate, the crisis stories that political agents tell simultaneously instil ontological insecurity among the American public and serve to transform their anxiety into confidence that the narrator’s policy agendas are the route back to ‘normality’. Through these rhetorical mechanisms, the Trump campaign manipulated individuals’ ontological (in)security as a tool in the politics of reassurance at the broader, societal level.     

Present at the Destruction? The Liberal Order in the Trump Era

Abstract

The election of Donald Trump in 2016 sent shock waves across political classes globally and prompted debates about whether his ‘America first’ agenda threatened the liberal international order. During his first year in office, Trump seemed determined to undermine the hallmarks of the liberal international order: democracy, liberal economics and international cooperation. So, are we witnessing the emergence of a “post-liberal” and “post-American” era? Four sources of evidence help frame – if not answer – the question: history, the crisis of liberal democracy, Trump’s world view, and the power of civil society (globally and nationally) to constrain any US President. They yield three main judgements. First, continuity often trumps change in US foreign policy. Second, the liberal international order may have been more fragile pre-Trump than was widely realised. Third, American power must be put at the service of its own democracy if the US is to become the example to the world it used to be.     

美国对华经贸政策新发展与中美经贸关系前景（英文）

Characterized by increasing consideration of non-economic factors, Trump's economic and trade policy toward China mirrors a dramatic concern about and increasing alert against China's growing power. Besides handling differences with sufficient wisdom to avoid strategic misjudgment, enlarging common economic interests can make the "Chinese Dream" and "Make America Great Again" promote rather than restrain each other.     

美国政治极化与对华政策的极端化

美国总统特朗普执政以来,美国两党的斗争异常激烈,政治极化程度之深为近几十年来所罕见,有学者甚至称其为"超级极化"。面对政治极化及其背后的深层问题,美国总统特朗普为巩固执政权威、两党政客为解决国内经济问题,都将对华强硬作为优先事项。美国部分学术界精英等提出为了凝聚人心和强化国家认同,呼吁与中国开展新冷战。这股强大的力量与中美两国结构性矛盾趋于尖锐一起,共同推动了美国对华政策的极端化。但与中国对抗无法缓解美国激烈的党争,难以改善其国内的不平等问题,也解决不了美国国家认同面临的长期挑战。美国要走出政治极化,需要共和党或民主党通过选民重组获得对另一方的压倒性优势,从而长期主导政治议程。未来美国的党争还会非常激烈,但不管其国内政治如何演进,美国对华强硬的趋势都很难改变。     

Toward Conflict or Compromise? How Violent Metaphors Polarize Partisan Issue Attitudes

We know much about how opinion leaders drive mass partisan polarization with position-taking cues but little on how different message types polarize citizens, and who responds most to those messages attributes. This article contributes new insights by investigating how exposure to common violent metaphors interacts with audience personality traits to polarize partisans on issues. Building from research on conflict orientations, we theorize that aggressive rhetoric primes aggression in aggressive partisans, motivating greater intransigence on party positions. As a consequence, aggressive partisans are pulled further apart on issues, thereby reducing prospects for compromise. We find support for our predictions in two large nationally diverse survey experiments conducted in very different political contexts. Our results demonstrate the subtle power of aggression in public opinion and highlight the important moderating role of individual differences in the communication of partisan conflict.     

The Foreign Policy Beliefs of Political Campaign Contributors

Since the Vietnam War, scholarly interest in public and elite opinion of U.S. foreign policy has grown. Because elites generally have greater access to policy makers and more consistent political views, most work on this topic has focused on elite opinions of foreign policy. Most research has defined the term elite broadly, often placing more emphasis on social status than political power. We will reexamine elite foreign policy beliefs using a different elite, presidential campaign contributors. We have two main goals in this article. First, we will assess the differences between the foreign policy outlooks of political campaign contributors and other elites. While many types of elites may influence policy, political contributors are particularly likely to gain access to policy makers. The second part of this research note offers some food for thought on the origins of these beliefs. We present evidence that foreign policy beliefs are related to the same ideological orientations that shape contributors' views on domestic issues. The origins of foreign and domestic policy views should probably be considered together.     

Burnt into the Brain: Towards a Redefinition of Political Culture

The current US administration has made the promotion of ‘political and economic freedom’ overseas a cornerstone of its foreign policy doctrine. The underlying notion that human beings all over the world can be chiefly motivated by a desire for personal liberty seems a noble but hardly realistic ideal. Such motivation is fostered by processes of social modernization and individualization. These changes are linked not only to structural transformations and the spread of new values and ideas, but also to the gradual rewiring of the brains of individuals involved in them. New findings in neuroscience point to clear parallels between changes in social and personality structures (individualization, self-discipline, sense of agency, time orientation, trust, and the like), and modified patterns of brain wiring in individuals. The cultural changes sometimes seen as a precondition for democratization and democratic consolidation are therefore likely to be slow and to escape deliberate political orchestration. Moreover, diffuse processes of brain rewiring conducive to democratic political development, which can be seen as creating favourable neurocultural preconditions for democracy, may be hampered by the rapid spread of the market economy over new regions and areas of life in both developing and Western countries. These processes can be studied by the new sub-field of political science called neuropolitics, to be consolidated over the next few years.     

South Korea's Faustian Attitude: The Republic of Korea's Decision to Send Troops to Iraq Revisited

South Korea sent troops to Iraq not because of any perceived threat from an Iraqi nuclear programme, but to seek influence over American foreign policy towards North Korea. At no point did the general public support the American invasion and war in Iraq; most South Koreans also opposed sending troops to Iraq. However, the government chose to send first non-combat and later combat troops to Iraq, and the public approved of the former choice and support was growing for the latter. The liberal President Roh Moo-Hyun had to persuade the public on this issue, even in opposition to his core supporters, risking political isolation. What the public and the President aimed at was a peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue and business opportunities. The national interest that South Korea pursued in sending troops to Iraq was policy influence over the US guarantee not to use military power against North Korea.     

Early American Views Regarding European Unification

This article examines the origins of US foreign economic policy in the post-1945 period and the major challenges posed to US policy by European economic integration and the establishment of a multilateral trade regime. US post-war economic planning began in the early stages of World War II. The US promoted bilateral trade agreements based on reciprocity and most-favoured-nation principles. During the war, US policy makers debated the merits of various plans to provide economic and financial assistance to Europe based on the assumption that Nazi Germany would be defeated. The plans for economic reconstruction of Europe were made under the premise that US economy would benefit from the creation of export markets in Europe. However, US policy makers were also concerned that the creation of a unified European market could potentially constitute a challenge to US economic hegemony and perhaps a political threat should Europe fall under another tyrannical regime. US policy therefore pursued twin tracks: it promoted economic reconstruction and integration in Europe; at the same time, it facilitated the establishment of an international trading regime that would promote principles of liberalised trade, support US economic growth and contribute to the development of a free enterprise capitalist trading system. This article illustrates that US economic planners in the 1940s were aware of the benefits and risks of European economic integration, seeking to balance European economic reconstruction with the establishment of a robust multilateral trading system.