Re‐evaluating US strategic priorities in the Caspian Region: balancing energy resource initiatives with terrorism containment

In the aftermath of September 11, US strategy has shifted in the Central Asian region from protecting the sovereignty of the southern post‐Soviet states to ensuring their stability in light of the dual impacts of energy development and the rising threat of Islamic terrorism. Although US–Russian cooperation has made strides, particularly concerning Russian acquiescence toward US and NATO military engagement in the region, geostrategic rivalry and conflicting economic goals have hindered a joint approach to initiatives regarding the region's energy development. While both agree on the goal of maximising Russian and Caspian gas and petroleum exports, US policy is increasingly prioritising Central Asian energy prosperity as a key factor in the region's ability to contain terrorism. Development of the region's energy resources has therefore become a critical US security concern. Yet, by failing to engage with Russia in a meaningful cooperation that could encourage Moscow to diversify its own energy export prospects, competition between the two powers is likely to reduce, rather than improve, the effectiveness of either in offering the Central Asian states the kind of support they need to strengthen their domestic profiles or withstand the incursion of terrorism.     

Political evolution in post‐Soviet Central Asia

This article considers the Central Asian republics in the post‐Soviet era and the fortunes of western‐style democracy to which their respective leaders have committed themselves. A dichotomy emerges between the ‘hard’ authoritarian approach adopted by Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and the ‘soft’ authoritarianism of Kazakhstan and Krygystan. Explanations for the authoritarian path, and implicitly for the lack of progress in democratization, are then expanded upon. These range from cultural and religious factors, to economic pressures, and to the role of Russia and the russified administrators and the political system it left behind. Finally, the article highlights the challenges, potential and real, to the perpetuation of the authoritarian culture. The future path of political transition in Central Asia is of major significance because the peaceful and stable development of this geostrategically and economically important region has yet to be secured. The emergence of political cultures centred on democratic values is far from guaranteed. There is nothing to say that such values even have any place in these societies.     

Moldova and Transdniestria: Painful past,deadlocked present,uncertain future

The ethnic conflict between Slavs and Moldovans in the Moldovan region of Transdniestria is one of the lesser‐known post‐Soviet conflicts, as, mercifully, its scale never reached that of conflict in Chechnya or Nagorny‐Karabakh. Nevertheless, this conflict, which started in 1990 after the Russian‐speaking Slavic minority on the left bank of the Dniester declared its independence from the Romanian‐speaking right bank, has claimed hundreds of lives. Today, it remains unresolved; a political settlement has not been achieved. The frozen ceasefire in the region simply preserved the status quo which is virtual independence for the self‐declared, but not recognised by any other state, Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), or Dniester Republic, from Moldova.

This work seeks to attempt to answer the following questions: what were the roots of the ethno‐political conflict in Moldova ? What were the circumstances that prompted the escalation of the conflict into bloodshed? To what extent did external forces influence events, and, finally, what are the prospects for a political settlement in the republic?     

On flexible containment

The doctrine of containment has been a principal element of American foreign policy for four decades. But there has been a major change in the Communist world; it is no longer a monolithic bloc. Many Marxist governments, including some Communist regimes, are not satellites or allies of the Soviets. Indeed, some are more anti‐Soviet than many noncommunist states. Yugoslavia and China do not serve Soviet expansionism; their security and economic interests are closer to the West. More and more Communist regimes, faced with mounting social and economic difficulties, must turn to the West, which has so much more to offer in the economic and technological spheres. Consequently, differentiation and disintegration within the Communist alliances are inevitable. Pluralism in the Western democracies is a source of strength. In despotic countries and blocs, pluralism would sound the death knell of tyranny and of despotic centralization.

The emergence of Gorbachev as a dynamic leader flexible in his relations with noncommunist countries makes the rigid containment practices of the postwar decades decidedly outdated and counterproductive. The international chessboard has become a game of movement, sensitivity, and subtlety. Consequently, the United States should use in its international relations the concept of pluralism that we have used so successfully at home. This means differentiation among the various Marxist regimes, calibrating our policy with flexibility toward each country's policy and situation affect our national interests.     

Democratization and European standards of National minority protection: Polish issues

This article considers how a nationally homogeneous state in East‐Central Europe, Poland, which in this respect is comparable to Hungary and the Czech Republic, has responded to a major post‐1989 challenge – that of meeting European standards of national minority protection within a civic‐territorial model of democracy. The forced assimilation and repression of such minorities as the Ukrainians and the Belarusans in prewar and communist Poland is now being handled within a common pan‐European perspective; this offers a model for the resolution of ethnic‐communal conflicts in the remainder of the highly differentiated post‐communist space. Although Poland's national minorities are now very small, historical memories of bad integral nationalist practice has induced post‐1989 governments to allay external criticism of alleged ethno‐nationalism by meeting European standards in this area as a key step towards eventual EU membership. The dual identity, linguistic, cultural and autonomy‐seeking characteristics of its currently non‐state‐destroying (that is, non‐secessionist) minorities points to comparisons with such groups as the Welsh or the Bretons. It argues for the redefinition of ‘normal’ as against more publicized aggressive forms of East European nationalism.     

America's freedom to act in the Caspian Area

After the break up of the Soviet Union the conflict over energy resources in the Caspian area has flared up again. The United States has entered the stage, but the only remaining superpower finds it hard to forward its security policy interests and interests in the economic sphere in the area. The creation of a US‐dominated hegemony in the area would be beneficial for the United States, but the policy of containment of Iran and Russia, and US policy towards Azerbaijan seriously limits this possibility. Thus it is not possible to secure American influence in the Caspian area. In the long term this leaves the area open to Russia and Iran, or new actors such as China and the EU, unless the United States is willing to soften its policy vis‐à‐vis Iran and/or Azerbaijan in order to create the needed hegemony, and in this way achieve economic and political influence in the former Soviet republics.     

Lobbying business interests in Russia

Our article examines business lobbying in contemporary Russia within the wider context of lobbying in the decision‐making system overall. It is argued that, although lobbies were an important part of the old Soviet system, the defence of corporate interests was held within ‘natural’ limits by an overriding concern to maintain the established consensus ‐ in the form of a bureaucratic corporatist economy. In the perestroika and post‐perestroika years, however, lobbies themselves took front stage becoming the decisive element in the economy. Easily the most important, in terms of economic strength and political influence, were the various business interest groups, which we have attempted to classify according to their lobbying potential and the channels of influence available to them. The peculiarities of business interest lobbying are also considered, including the as yet unsatisfied quest for political representation, the tendency for management and employees to ‘row together’, the huge potential of uncontrollable lobbying ‘from below’ in the face of growing social tensions and, finally, the disparity between lobbying and other forms of state‐society relations.     

Identity and democracy in the Baltics

The purpose of this essay is to consider the probable impact of issues related to ethnic and cultural identity on democratization in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Particular attention will be given to the demographic make‐up of the Baltic states, which are home to a high percentage of Slavs (mostly Russians but also Belarusians, Poles, and Ukrainians), and to those factors which affect how these Slavs and the majority Baits: (1) identify themselves; and (2) identify with the new states in which they find themselves. The key question is the degree to which civic democracy can prosper in a newly emerging multi‐ethnic state. The answer is important not only for the Baltic states but also for the other new multinational states that have emerged from the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe in the past few years.     

Democratic consolidation and convergence in Southern Europe: The Italian case

In the analysis of democratic consolidation(s) in Southern Europe the emphasis has been on three main factors: the relevance of institutional rules, the scope and activities of parties (and party elites), and the establishment of certain relationships between institutions, parties and interests, connected to the size of the public sector of the economy. From the varied combinations of these factors different consolidations result: an elite‐based consolidation (Spain), a party‐based one (Italy), a state‐based one (Greece), and also a mixed party‐state model (Portugal). Our analysis also suggests the emergence of different types of democratic regime, mainly characterized by (i) either a ‘chancellor’ democracy or a parliamentary arrangement; (ii) either a pivotal or a secondary role for parties; and (iii) either a large or small public economic sector.

Recently the economic crisis, the resulting problems, and discontent arising from other causes, have brought about change in these democracies. The main transformations include the weakening of parties vis‐à‐vis other actors, the shrinking of both the public economic sector and the welfare institutions and, as a result, the prospect of greater autonomy for civil society. Thus, partially new regimes emerge, while the analysis also suggests the possibility of building a new typology of democratic regimes. Alongside the process of democratic consolidation in Southern Europe, there has also been an accompanying trend towards convergence: in the direction of majoritarianism, confirmed by the most recent national elections.     

Window of opportunity: Reflections on an idea fashionable in the west

The essay warns about the extreme danger of the fashionable idea that the West has only a marginal role to play in Russia's integration into the world community. It does not take into account the ferocious war of ideas in post‐Soviet Moscow which all but insures that nationalist ambition ‘to return Russia to the status of a leading global power’ would come out a winner. As a result of this the window of opportunity that opened after the disintegration of the Soviet empire may well slam shut again. The only way to prevent it seems to be for the West to create its own strategy of Russia's integration in which the dominant up to now theme of economic assistance (hardware) is replaced by the theme of intellectual participation (or the software of integration). That is why the purpose of the essay is to try to offer a logical set of criteria that could provide the basis for such an intelligent strategy.     

Towards a framework for local democracy in a war‐torn society: The lessons of selected foreign assistance programmes in El Salvador

This article examines several bilateral and multilateral programmes that were designed to forward El Salvador's transition from a war‐torn society to a democratic polity. Both procedural and substantive democratic strengthening measures were pursued by external donors within the national framework for reconstruction, and independently through larger Central American initiatives. Because links between development and democracy are not clearly understood this article questions the implicit assumption accepted by foreign donors that democracy will be a by‐product of development assistance. To illustrate this point, state‐level procedural reforms and local level reconstruction and reconciliation interventions are assessed. Particular attention is paid to the Development Programme for Refugees, Displaced and Repatriated in Central America (PRODERE) which is compared with two other local level interventions. In a comparative setting, PRODERE highlights the potential of development assistance to open a hitherto exclusionary political arena and add substance to procedural democratic reforms. The article concludes that development interventions that fail to simultaneously address the causes as well as consequences of war‐torn societies cannot claim to alter the balance of power. Hence, they cannot be considered as development assistance that is supportive of transition to democracy.     

对中东欧国家发展道路的思考

中东欧国家处于大国之间,在选择发展道路的关键时刻,往往仰仗大国或大国集团的保护,因而特别容易受到国际关系变动的影响,并且大多移植外来模式.中东欧国家的"欧洲化"道路也是对西方模式的移植,但与一战结束后模仿西方式民主制的尝试和冷战爆发后照搬苏联模式的实践不同的是,这次移植得益于中东欧国家的主观意愿、中东欧各国国情对西方模...     

中亚利益格局中的美国与中国

前苏联解体后 ,中亚的地缘战略地位日益显得重要。美国在中亚拥有巨大的地缘政治与经济利益。同样 ,中国在中亚也有着自己独特的地缘政治与经济利益。二者在中亚不可避免地发生利益碰撞。因此 ,中国必须深化“上海合作组织” ,在此框架内与中亚展开安全合作和经济合作 ,以维护地缘安全、能源安全 ,遏制我国境内民族分裂势力 ,增强新疆经济发展后劲     

Uneasy Democratizations - Pariah Regimes,Political Conditionality and Reborn Transitions in Central and Eastern Europe

With the diversity of regime changes in post-Communist Europe, it is important for democratization studies to accommodate cases that do not readily conform to liberal democracy as conventionally defined. Pariah regimes in transition is one category that needs exploring, focusing as it does on the international dimension of regime change. A thematic framework is developed for exploring this phenomenon which is now more visible given tighter conditionality demands by international organisations. This is applied to four cases in Central and Eastern Europe (Belarus, Romania, Croatia and Serbia) and then, in greater detail, to Slovakia which became renowned for its flouting of political conditionality. It is found that these cases are variable examples of pariah regimes, but their commonalities include substantial issues most likely to provoke European opinion, a high level of personalisation of pariah status and a significant influence of international pressures. Also, on the one hand, these pressures may be reduced when security interests of outside powers so dictate; on the other hand, the pull of the 'European core' - in particular, the European Union - has a reinforcing effect on democratization, thus tending to demarcate Central & Eastern Europe from most ex-Soviet republics.     

The red air force in Italy, 1944: A case study in the formation of British Policy to the Soviet Union in world war II

In March 1944, the Soviets requested permission to base some aircraft in southern Italy. As the area was under Anglo‐American control, this raised some significant issues concerning wartime cooperation with the Soviets. Once it was set up, the base (at Bari) was used to send an unannounced mission to the Communist part of the Greek resistance movement. This paper considers the development of British attitudes towards these Soviet activities and demonstrates how the issue throws light on the making of British policy towards the USSR at this time: the conflicting views in different departments concerning the best method of handling the Soviets and the strategic significance of Soviet activities in the Balkans and the Mediterranean.     

In the wake of revolution: Eastern Europe in the 1990s

Summary

A ‘new world order’ and a ‘Europe whole and free’ are phrases that epitomize the hopeful rhetoric born of East European revolutions in 1989. In the three years since we were awed by the courage of citizens disgusted with communist party rule, and surprised by the rapidity of such regimes’ demise, socio‐economic and political realities have dimmed hopes and constrained expectations. The work of building free governments and free markets after decades of neglect and abuse faces East Europeans in the 1990s and beyond.

The dangers suggested above are not hyperbole, and represent real and present threats to the hopes of Poles, Romanians, and the other people, for better futures. Comparisons across the region are much less valid than at any time in the last half century. Nevertheless, the goals of post‐communist leaders ‐ security, democracy and market ‐ face similar extraordinary challenges that can easily derail these processes. Americans and our longstanding allies cannot ensure the survival and further development of East European democracy, but we must certainly be more engaged in helping them help themselves.     

#Democracy: social media use and democratic legitimacy in Central and Eastern Europe

Since 1989, many of the former communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have made the dramatic change from communist regimes to democratic nations that are integrated in the European sphere. While these sweeping changes have given rise to a successful transition to democracy unlike any the world has ever seen, there remain issues with governance as well as citizen support for the regime. While other studies have shown that mass media can influence a person's attitudes and opinions in the region, none has explored what effect social media can have on orientations toward democracy in the region. In the following paper, I build several hypotheses based on previous studies of media effects and democratic survival. I then employ survey data to empirically test whether social media increases support for democracy. The study finds that not only does using social media increase support for democracy, but also simple usage rather than information seeking provides more consistent effects on a person's support for democracy in CEE.     

British cultural diplomacy and the cold war: 1946–61

Why was Britain so reluctant to use the tools of cultural diplomacy for the cold war? First, the habits of administration and the effects of war encouraged a compartmentalization of effort. There was no obvious point at which to construct an overview or a strategy which could match the Soviet enterprise. Second, the dissolution of the empire exposed the racism and ethnic tensions which had existed in both the United Kingdom and its colonies. Policymakers appeared to be pursuing incompatible objectives. They found it difficult to think about post‐colonial influence except in terms of a policy for the Commonwealth, but also to construct such a line of action. The insubstantiality of cultural diplomacy is part of the trauma of losing great power status. Arab nationalism was the major force which prompted government into action on cultural affairs. Commitments were made before the military operations in Suez.     

新世纪俄罗斯与中东欧国家关系探析

苏东剧变后，俄罗斯与中东欧国家之间的关系先一度紧张，后有所改善。此后，中东欧国家先后加入了北约和欧盟。在此过程中和过程结束后，俄罗斯与中东欧国家之间在一定程度上仍然相互敌视，它们之间依然存在着一些矛盾，但是，如较少考虑外部因素的影响，仅从相互关系现实的各个方面来看，双方的关系正不断地加强。这既体现出俄罗斯外交越来越务实的特点，也折射出俄罗斯对外交战略层次的考虑。     

Party systems in Latin America: institutionalization,decay, and collapse,edited by Scott Mainwaring

Although coming of age under a totalitarian regime drastically reduces the chances of acquiring democratic values or supporting democracy, factors other than the formal nature of the political regime shape political values as well. The informal structure of the political regime, which consists of rules developed in political practice and economic and human development, may shape individual values and attitudes and produce different attitudes towards democracy in different totalitarian regimes. This article focuses on the effect of early socialization on the support for democracy among citizens who have been ruled under two different non-democratic regimes. We compare the dynamics in Spain and Romania during the post-totalitarian period with the aim of identifying how coming of age operated in these two different totalitarian regimes and how each type of non-democratic regime affected the legitimacy of the new democratic rule. Using survey data from various sources (Standard Eurobarometer, Central and Eastern Eurobarometer and Candidate Countries Eurobarometer) that allow both longitudinal and cross-sectional comparisons, we decompose the social change in support for democracy over the post-totalitarian period in both countries using cross-classified fixed effects models. The analyses demonstrate the different effects of socialization on support for democracy in these two different totalitarian contexts.