评《中东库尔德问题研究》

从历史上看，影响中东和平的关键因素主要源自两大民族矛盾：一是阿以冲突，二是中东库尔德问题。相较而言，中东库尔德问题尽管不像阿以冲突那么突出，但其复杂程度并不亚于前者。它不仅长期困扰着土耳其、伊拉克、伊朗与叙利亚等地区国家，而且常常招致大国的外部干预，以致至今悬而未决。中东库尔德人是个具有跨界属性的民族，这使中东库尔德问题愈发凸显，并对中东地缘政治格局产生重大影响。     

困扰中东地区的库尔德问题

伊拉克北部的库尔德人积极支持美国武力“倒萨”,并直接参加伊北部战事,欲借美国强势巩固和扩大其实力与影响,引起区内国家强烈不安。如果跨界而居的库尔德人趁乱谋取独立,势将改变中东地缘政治版图,并可能引发新的战事。随着萨达姆政权的垮台,中东地区的库尔德问题也再度凸显出来。     

伊拉克教派冲突背后的宗教文化博弈及对地区形势影响

萨达姆政权垮台后,伊拉克国内原有政治格局被打破,出现权力真空.伊拉克教派冲突在一定程度上是权力和利益重新分配中各派争夺的一部分,但它不是简单的政治权力和利益之争,更不是孤立事件;伊拉克教派冲突的背后是一场在伊拉克战争后中东地区出现意识形态的分化、分裂,乃至冲突等社会转型初期混乱和动荡的大背景下,境内外各种政治力量和宗教势力,以及他们所代表的文化价值观之间为夺取地区政治、宗教文化影响力及话语权的博弈.这场搏弈不仅影响伊拉克局势及政治进程走向,而且成为影响中东地区稳定、以及美国在中东地区利益的重要因素.     

2004年大国关系的主要特点

2004年，美国的单边主义引发大国间新一轮互动，多边机制成为大国互动的主要平台。大国间深层次矛盾依然存在，大国在地缘战略要地和战略资源上的争夺呈加剧之势，但大国关系总体平稳。中国在大国关系中的地位更加突出。长远看，大国之间既合作又竞争、既协调又斗争的总体框架仍将是大国关系的常态。     

伊拉克战后中东国际关系的地缘性特征

伊拉克战争后 ,中东国际关系的地缘性特征主要表现在以下 6点 :伊拉克成为美国在中东的“支柱国家” ;沙特、埃及和土耳其等国与美国处于一种“无所适从国家”的关系 ;伊朗、叙利亚是美国的“潜在敌意国家” ;法、德与美国盟友反目 ;俄罗斯和美国矛盾重重 ;“多强”合作的趋势加强。中东地区大国同美国的关系将进行新一轮的分化与组合 ,世界强国针对美国的单边主义进一步加强合作将是一种长期的发展趋势。伊拉克战争后的中东国际关系生动地展现了国际关系中的国家利益理论、合作理论和权力 (实力 )理论。未来的中东国际关系将是这样一幅图景 :国家利益为主轴 ,国家实力为决定因素 ,冲突与合作共生、霸权与反霸权、均势与反均势共存、多角色多层次博弈。     

冲突与合作并存：1979年以来的伊土关系

伊朗和土耳其关系的好坏不仅对中东而且对世界局势有影响。两国关系的发展自伊朗伊斯兰革命以来颇为曲折，摩擦不断，但同时又不乏合作与联系。伊土关系的发展经历了四个阶段，即相互猜疑但经济合作相对密切时期；争夺地区影响时期；短暂的蜜月时期；麻烦不断的建设性接触时期。两国关系时常紧张的根源在于意识形态难以相容；库尔德问题纠缠；争当地区大国的冲突；美以关系因素。两国保持合作与联系的动因是相互的经济需要；摆脱孤立的困境；解决库尔德问题的压力。     

中东地区当前的宗派地缘政治格局与冲突

从宗派地缘政治的观点来看,美国2003年发动的伊拉克战争是导致当前中东地区宗派地缘政治格局形成的根源。这场战争在推翻萨达姆逊尼派政权的同时,也解除了伊拉克对什叶派神权国家伊朗的遏制。此后,伊朗和沙特所代表的伊斯兰两大教派,在中东伊斯兰地区逐步形成了一种带有教派色彩的宗派地缘政治势力,并爆发了持续不断的冲突。"阿拉伯之春"爆发后,民众反对专制政权的起义在宗派势力的利用下,日益成为宗派地缘政治冲突的工具,从而使得中东地区的宗派地缘政治冲突变得更为复杂,并造成叙利亚等多国的国内冲突长久持续。     

库尔德人独立建国问题的突破及其有限性

伊拉克库尔德地区政府2017年9月25日举行了独立公投,独立公投在表达库尔德人意愿的同时,遭遇巨大的外部压力.目前,公投结果业已冻结,地区政府总统巴尔扎尼本人的政治生命也暂时终结.形势表明,维持现有秩序的力量依然强大,库尔德人自身的整合远未完成.当下,伊拉克库尔德人独立公投对于地缘政治的搅动作用已然显现,西亚地区脆弱的政治平衡面临新的挑战,而域外大国的介入则导致伊拉克的重建和区域秩序的重组面临诸多变数.由伊拉克库尔德人居住区陷入混乱而造成的问题和负面影响,并不亚于一个独立的库尔德人国家.     

中东2019：内外危机加剧与地区格局失衡

2019年中东局势呈现内外危机加剧、地区格局失衡两大特征。从大国看,美国针对伊朗的"极限施压"空前严厉,伊朗设法反制,双方游走冲突边缘。美伊对峙的松与紧影响着波斯湾与西亚的安与危。从地区看,苏丹、阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、黎巴嫩四个阿拉伯国家爆发持续性民众抗议,冲击旧政治体制,上演新版"阿拉伯之春"。四国动荡加剧阿拉伯阵营弱化,引发土耳其、以色列、伊朗三强竞夺,地区格局进一步失衡。美伊关系紧张、阿拉伯世界弱化、地区格局失衡既是老问题,又有新表现,持续搅乱中东局势。     

伊朗库尔德政党及其政治前景

众所周知,库尔德问题是影响伊朗国内安全与稳定的重要因素,甚至是中东动乱与冲突的诱因之一.作为中东地区四大主体民族之一的库尔德民族,主要分布在伊朗、伊拉克、土耳其、叙利亚四国边境的交界处,至今仍未建立起属于自己的民族国家,是典型的跨境民族.由于上述中东四国政府奉行不同的库尔德民族政策,库尔德人内部又存在严重的矛盾与利益冲突,因而库尔德人要想建立一个跨境的库尔德斯坦国家十分艰难.     

“63-YEAR EXPERIENCE OF PROMOTING FRIENDSHIP WITH CHINA”

正Even though the Sri Lankan envoy to the Court of Claudius Caesar in the first century A.D.mentioned about trade between Sri Lanka and China,it took 19 more centuries for the two peoples to develop an uninterrupted mutual awareness and friendship.Linkages of diplomatic,cultural and trade which occurred during that long historical episode could not register a lasting     

My Thirty-year Friendship with China

正China and My Family History In a gathering of friends who are all devoted to advancing Japan-China friendship,I told a story about my childhood."I went to China for the first time in 1943…"As soon as I uttered those words,others present looked quite surprised and thought I must have been wrong.Actually I wasn’t wrong.I was just 2 or 3 years old when I first came to China,so I was too young to remember everything.     

Promoting People-to-people Exchanges and Building a Favorable Atmosphere——Sidelights on CAFIU Delegation's Visit to Japan and the Philippines

正At the invitation of Japan NPO "the World" and Philippine Center of Young Leaders in Governance(PCYL),a 6-member CAFIU delegation headed by Secretary-General Ni Jian paid a friendly visit to Japan and the Philippines from November 1 to November 8.During the visit,the delegation had extensive contacts and exchanges with politicians,NGOs and ordinary     

重新认识战略机遇期(英文)

The Eighteenth Party Congress pointed out that China is still in an The an important period of strategic opportunity. Many people cast doubt on important on how to perceive and grasp the future period of strategic opportunity, and there has been a significant increase in controversial issues that need to be discussed. The purpose and focus of this article is to discuss these questions.     

TTCSP Director James G. McGann Visits CIIS

正On October 27,2014,James G.McGann,director of University of Pennsylvania's Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program(TTCSP),paid a visit to the China Institute of International Studies and delivered a speech titled"The Trend of Global Development and Its Influences on China's Think Tanks".CIIS Vice-President Ruan Zongze chaired     

Speech by President Yan Junqi at the 11~(th) Execu tive Council Meeting of CAFIU (Excerpt)

正The meeting of the 11th Executive Council of CAFIU is convened successfully today.We have reviewed the achievements of the 10thExecutive Council,approved the amended Constitution and elected the new leadership.It is a great honor for me to serve as the President of CAFIU.Therefore,I would like to express my thanks for the trust given by all Council members and the colleagues present     

China-Europe Cooperation Embraces New Development Opportunities

正Located in the ends of Eurasian Continent,China and Europe have rather far distance but timehonored relationship.China was a heated topic among enlightenment thinkers in the 18thcentury,let alone in the age of Marco Polo.Afterwards,China’s civil service system became the model pursued by European countries,which made Europe step onto the road of modernization.     

Strategic Significance of the 21~(st) Century Maritime Silk Road and Tactics in its Development

正In a speech delivered at the Indonesian Parliament in October 2013,Chinese President Xi Jinping said:"we should further strengthen our maritime partnerships and jointly build the 21st century Maritime Silk Road",articulating China’s willingness to beef up maritime cooperation with ASEAN countries.The Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on     

防止海上事件与中美海上军事互信机制建设(英文)

This paper seeks to analyze the deficiencies, underlying flaws, and prospects of the Sino-US military maritime safety consultation mechanism, based on maritime incident prevention theories and typical cases. It also on also offers suggestions on the future development of the Sino-US maritime offers maritime confidence-building mechanism.     

One Belt One Road,New Diplomacy and Public Diplomacy

正President Xi Jinping put forward the term "Silk Road Economic Belt" on September 7th,2013 in Kazakhstan when he proposed in his speech "to forge closer economic ties,deepen cooperation and expand development space in the Eurasian region,we should take an innovative approach and jointly