疫情冲击下的世界经济与中国对策

新冠肺炎疫情的急剧扩散正在对世界经济产生严重冲击,使得任何国家都无法独善其身。本文探讨了疫情对世界经济增长、深层次结构以及全球经济治理等领域可能造成的冲击,认为世界经济秩序和国际经济关系都将受到重大影响,全球化进程可能呈现出现碎片化发展趋势,全球治理赤字更加凸显且内容更加广域化,跨国公司的产业链重构进程将有所加快并更加注重安全因素。在这种严峻形势下,中国应采取更加系统的应对措施,短期内宏观经济政策重心应该从“保增长”调整为“保就业”,并努力确保外向型产业链稳定;中长期应该更加注重扩大内需,进一步扩大金融业开放和积极推进国际经济协调。     

金融全球化、全球金融治理改革与国际金融安全*——基于信息科技革命的视角JP〗*

从本质上说,金融业是一种“信息密集性”或“信息敏感性”产业,对于金融全球化而言,信息技术进步具有特殊重要的意义。在信息科技革命引领和推动下,互联网与金融业相互融合,掀起了人类历史上第二次大规模的金融全球化浪潮。当代金融全球化迅猛发展对国际金融安全产生了重大而深远的影响,新一轮大规模金融全球化、国际金融体系的巨大变化以及由此而形成的新的国际金融格局与既有的全球金融治理框架之间的均衡逐渐被打破,既有的全球金融治理框架越来越难以适应信息科技革命条件下金融全球化发展和维护国际金融安全的要求。为更好地适应当代金融全球化条件下建立新的国际金融公共秩序,更好地维护国际金融安全的需要,以2008年全球金融危机爆发为契机,国际社会揭开了全球金融治理改革的大幕。在国际金融体系和全球金融治理框架处于大变动和寻求新均衡的背景下,中国应抓住有利时机,以更加积极、主动的姿态参与和推动全球金融治理改革,坚持命运共同体理念,遵循责任、权力相一致和平衡的原则,倡导在全球金融治理中加强互联网的运用,为维护国际金融安全做出更大贡献。     

全球公域：不均衡全球化 世界中的治理与权力

随着全球化进程的深化，具有非传统特性的全球问题不断涌现，在现有治理秩序下无法得到有效解决，需要协调全球各行为体一致努力进行治理，这在一定程度上推进了全球共治理念的贯彻，有助于实现全球共享安全。其中，网络、极地、外太空、公海等各个全球公域的重点问题领域，亟须全球做出协调努力进行治理。全球公域作为一个相对较新的战略增长点，为各国所重视。但是，治理中仍然存在着两类权力不均衡的情况，即参与治理的富国与穷国之间权力的不均衡，参与治理的国家行为体与非国家行为体之间权力的不均衡，它们都影响了治理的效果。全球公域治理的制度安排受限于概念模糊、划界不清、权责不明的现状，大国权力政治的色彩很容易趁机充斥到全球治理的诸多安排当中，危机治理行为的合法性。     

国家安全治理的内外整合:以打击"东突"恐怖主义为例

国家安全是一个动态演进的概念。现代意义上的国家安全概念产生于工业社会的民族国家，并体现出以民族国家为中心、强调外部安全的特征。目前，中国正在从工业社会向后工业社会转型。在经济全球化的影响下，国家安全风险出现了高度的复杂性和高度不确定性等特征，内外界限被模糊。总体国家安全观是契合中国向后工业社会迈进时代特征的系统性、整体性的国家安全观。它具有多元性、层次性、结构性和整体性等特征，强调对内部安全与外部安全、国土安全与国民安全、传统安全与非传统安全、发展问题与安全问题、自身安全与共同安全的整合。作为一个重要的国家安全问题，中国打击“东突”恐怖主义可以在总体国家安全框架下呈现新的图景。由于“东突”恐怖主义日益被打上后工业化时代的烙印，中国反恐怖的模式必须实现从“统治”向“治理”的演变，这是因为“东突”恐怖主义日益显现出组织的松散性、风险的流动性和行为的不确定性以及思想的激进化、活动的虚拟化和联系的全球化，对既有的反恐模式提出了挑战。中国应在统筹国家治理与全球治理的基础上，构建内外整合型的治理模式，实现对恐怖主义的国家治理与全球治理良性互动。     

全球化与和谐世界

人类社会已进入全球化时代。全球化时代带来全球性问题, 需要科学、理性、民主的 全球治理。中国主张“努力建设持久和平、共同繁荣的和谐世界”, “和谐世界”理念是中国外交的 新思维, 是全球化时代全球治理的新主张、新理念。     

融合还是分立：全球经济治理制度变迁的逻辑

在新技术革命、新冠肺炎疫情等外部冲击下，国家行为体的权力、利益、观念等结构性变化驱动全球经济治理制度加速变迁。中美两国是最重要的国家行为体，代表制度整合和制度分立两股力量，双方的制度博弈将决定全球经济治理制度变迁的方向。未来，真正的多边主义与伪多边主义、全球化和逆全球化、霸权和反霸权将在国际舞台上不断角力，全球经济治理制度网络将呈现复杂性增强和区域化增进的特征。面对中美两国的制度差异，需要承认制度多样性，提升制度包容性，才能深入推进全球经济治理体系改革。     

中国的全球治理观：立论基础、内在逻辑与实践原则

进入新时代，中国秉持共商共建共享全球治理观参与全球治理体系变革和建设。全球化背景下各国利益与命运的“高度关联性”是共商共建共享全球治理观的时代背景和立论之基；多极化格局下国际秩序和力量对比变化的“结构性”是其得以践行的必要条件；安全以及发展利益的“非零和性”是其在国际交往中实践的根本性保障；国际合作的“扩散互惠性”是其实践动力；国际交往的“道德性”从观念层面为其提供了道义支撑。共商、共建、共享三者在逻辑上互嵌、内容上互构、体系上互济，是一个体系严密、层次清晰的科学理论体系。共商共建共享全球治理观蕴含明确的实践原则，即以真正的多边主义坚定维护联合国宪章宗旨和原则，以公正合理为方向推动全球治理体系改革和建设，以增加全球公共产品投入为路径发挥大国在全球治理中的表率作用，以开放包容为特征打造全球治理多元叙事体系。     

全球发展赤字与中国的治理实践

随着经济全球化不断深化和世界不稳定性、不确定性日益突出,全球发展赤字问题也愈加严峻,全球发展总体不充分、发展空间不平衡、发展动能不充足、发展援助不完善和发展环境不理想是其具体表现。全球发展赤字问题主要源于全球化发展的负面影响、国家治理失效的扩散、现有发展机制的内在缺陷、发展模式西方化的逆反效应以及个人主义在西方膨胀等。对此,中国推出了一系列有助于凝聚全球发展共识、提升全球发展效能的重要举措,着力构建人类命运共同体、推动"一带一路"建设、促进全球发展机制改革、推进国家治理现代化、加强国际对话交流,以实际行动为应对全球发展赤字难题贡献了中国力量。     

新时代中国参与全球经济治理:进展、挑战与努力方向

进入新时代，中国为完善全球经济治理体系、解决全球经济治理难题作出了诸多贡献。中国之所以能够将强大的经济实力成功转化为在全球经济治理中的突出成就，关键在于顺应全球经济治理体系变革的现实需求，以强大的决胜力、感召力，强化内外政策的联动、汇集各方伙伴、凝聚各方力量。但中国要在全球经济治理舞台扮演更加积极的角色，还面临着现行治理体系主导国的牵制、日益严峻的逆全球化趋势以及新兴领域治理难以达成共识等现实挑战。未来，中国需要在准确把脉全球经济治理的特点与发展逻辑的基础上，保持战略定力，积极应对新环境与新变化，按照“十四五”规划的目标和要求，更好地推动全球经济治理体系朝着更加公正合理的方向发展。     

非传统安全问题的全球治理与国际体系转型——以行为体结构和权力结构为视角的分析

在全球治理框架内,非传统安全威胁构成了影响国际体系转型的重要动力。在国际体系行为体结构的转型方面,国家面临着全球治理的压力和挑战,但它依然是治理非传统安全威胁的最主要的行为主体;非传统安全领域的非国家行为体包括建设性、破坏性以及积极与消极作用兼具的非国家行为体,其作用十分复杂。关于国际体系权力结构的转型问题是,一方面,对非传统安全威胁的全球治理推动了国际关系民主化程度的提高,削弱了霸权的权力与权威,促进了国际权力的分散化;另一方面,霸权国家对全球治理主导权的排他性垄断,全球治理体系的不平等,霸权国家防范和阻止新兴国家进入全球治理核心领导层,都使全球治理的霸权特征得到凸显,并在短期内难以发生实质性的改变。     

战争、和平与全球治理

战争与和平是人类社会面临的重大问题。战争的爆发与和平的实现既受国际政治经济因素的影响,也是国内政治力量相互作用的结果。裁军是决定战争与和平的重要因素,然而,当今国际社会在裁军方面的进展十分缓慢。随着全球化步伐的加快,尤其进入21世纪以来,国际安全形势令人担忧。大规模杀伤性武器的有增无减以及恐怖主义的蔓延继续威胁着国际社会,原先的国际治理逻辑已不再适用。为消除战争、增进和平,重塑全球治理机制的呼声愈加高涨。为此,国际社会需要引入新的治理机制,对影响国际安全的因素加以管理。世界各国日益加深的相互依赖意味着以议题关联为核心的治理手段能够发挥更大作用。为提升和改进全球治理的效果,国际社会必须引入具有动机的激励机制,建立起可信和可核查的制度,对违反协议的国家实施惩罚和制裁,这不仅是国际协议和国际行动成功的关键,也是确保全球治理有效性的不二选择。     

Putting security governance to the test: conceptual,empirical, and normative challenges

Security governance has featured prominently in recent debates about fragmentation, informalization, and privatization in the increasingly diverse field of security policy. It has inspired much valuable research. Yet, there are not just very different conceptual understandings of security governance; there is also a lack of clarity regarding its empirical manifestations and normative connotations. After a decade of research, the special issue therefore puts security governance to the test and scrutinizes its analytical and political pitfalls and potentials. This editorial briefly reviews the rise of security governance, identifies central conceptual, empirical, and normative challenges that need to be addressed, and introduces the individual contributions to this special issue.     

合成生物学时代：生物安全、生物安保与治理

合成生物学是现代生物学最具发展潜力的领域之一,它将工程学的理念引入生物学研发中,汇聚性地融合多学科概念、方法和工具,从而能够设计、改造或创造新颖的或具有专门功能的生物系统或生物体。合成生物学具有广阔的应用前景,其革命性的进展有望改善人类生活的诸多方面。然而,作为典型的两用性研究领域,合成生物学的发展伴随一系列潜在的生物安全和生物安保的双重风险,将给人类、动植物和生态环境带来重大危害,给国家安全造成威胁。现有治理模式已不再适应合成生物学的高速发展和颠覆性变革。为探寻合成生物学领域风险治理的适当模式,需要根据合成生物学发展现状和趋势,客观、有效地分析合成生物学发展所附带的安全和安保问题及演变趋势,进而从国家法律规制、政府监管、科学共同体的自治以及政府、共同体的国际合作与对话等方面,探讨动态调整的综合性合成生物学生物安全和生物安保风险的治理模式。     

Japanese political economy revisited: diverse corporate change,institutional transformation,and Abenomics

Abstract

This introductory article to the special issue on “Japanese Political Economy Revisited: Diverse Corporate Change, Institutional Transformation, and Abenomics” starts with a short summaryof the changing perceptions of Japan's political economy from its meteoric rise as worldwide leading model in the 1970s and 1980s to its demotiontoa problem and reform case since the later 1990s. Based on this overview, it identifies some striking issue and open questions in this conventional view of Japan's political economy as problem and the high expectations on Abenomics as Japan's current economic reform programme. Then we discuss the articles of the special issue and their new contributionsto a better understanding of the developments at the corporate level as well as institutional change and economic reforms at the macro level in the last two decades. Finally, this introductory article ends with a short outlineof a new research programme and four central research questions about the Japanese political economy.     

The European External Action Service,Counterterrorism and the Imperative of Coherence

ABSTRACT

The European External Action Service (EEAS), specifically mandated with enhancing coherence between the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and non-CFSP bodies on the one hand, and the European Union and member states on the other hand, has the potential to increase CFSP’s contribution to the fight against terrorism and diminish the boundaries between CFSP and other policies. Several of the EEAS’ cooperation and coordination duties, as well as the inclusive composition of the Service, allow for a more coherent approach to counterterrorism policymaking. In practice, coherence is unfolding in diplomatic cooperation with third countries and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions, as CFSP and Justice and Home Affairs actors seem to build on one another’s strengths. The picture is more nuanced in the area of intelligence, where the activities of the EU intelligence centre, transferred from the Council of the European Union to the EEAS, are conditional upon member states’ willingness to exchange information. Ultimately, current efforts towards coherence remain subject to a somewhat paradoxical two-speed process: one that encourages the meshing together of institutional actors and policy cultures, while deferring access to justice to national law, thereby yielding a system of protection of individuals à géométrie variable.     

韩国企业集团公司治理结构特征分析及启迪

韩国具有垄断资本特征的、依仗政府的扶植政策人为地制造出来的企业集团的产生及成长过程决定着其公司治理结构的特征:家族控制与家族经营、过度依赖政府、资本结构中负债率过高等。在企业集团治理机制方面,企业控制权通常掌握在某一个仅持有少量股份的家族所有者———管理者手中,政府对商业银行的控制使得银行总是在扮演着“提款机”的角色。探讨韩国企业集团公司治理结构特征,对我国企业内外部治理结构的改革具有重要的借鉴意义。     

The Governance of the Chaotic International Security

After the Cold War ended,former traditional security threats withered while non-traditional ones sprouted.More recently as both traditional and non-traditional security threats bloom,concern spreads over whether international security governance can be effective.Worse still,major Western countries' zeal for global governance has cooled,while they turn from being advocates of global governance to obstacles,making the future dimmer.     

Democracy,Veto Player,and Institutionalization of Sovereign Wealth Funds

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) have become important and controversial in global economy. We analyze why some SWFs have more encompassing and clearly specified governance rules than others. We argue that SWF institutionalization is structurally rooted in a country’s regime type and number of veto players in public policymaking. Democracy promotes SWF institutionalization by its need for strong rule of law, voters trying to constrain opportunistic behaviors of politicians, and the free flow of information. In contrast, the number of veto players has a curvilinear effect. When the number of veto players is very small, institutionalization is too rigid, constraining, and not preferred; when the number of veto players is moderate, it is optimal for veto players to manage their conflict over SWF governance in a more routine and institutionalized fashion; and when the number of veto players grows above a threshold, it becomes too costly to coordinate and produce mutually agreeable institutional rules. Our empirical analysis of 46 SWFs in 30 countries from 2007 to 2009 provides robust confirming evidence. SWF governance is more institutionalized and transparent in democracies and in countries with four veto players. Our research has important theoretical and policy implications for the ongoing debate over SWF.     

Contestation and Transformation. Final Thoughts on the Liberal International Order

Abstract

The liberal international order, the inseparable mix of US geopolitical power and ideational project of organising international relations along normative frameworks such as internationalism, institutionalism and democracy, is reeling under the pressure of profound systemic changes such as greater interconnectedness and multipolarity. Predictions abound that increasing great power competition, most visibly at play in geographical areas of contested orders, will eventually tear it down. However, even if major actors – the US included – display a selective, irregular and often instrumental commitment to the liberal order, they are still repositioning themselves in that order and not outside of it. In addition, conflict is not the default outcome of order contestation, as hybrid forms of governance are possible even in troubled regions. No doubt, the world of tomorrow will be less American-shaped and less liberal, but transformation is a more plausible future than collapse for the liberal order.     

Informal democratization: brokers,access to public services and democratic accountability in Indonesia and India

This article compares the role of brokers in mediating access to public services in India and Indonesia. Brokered state-citizen interaction is generally considered to be detrimental to democratic accountability and governance. Yet recent studies are emphasizing that brokers can also be empowering. Reconciling these contrasting assessments, I argue in this paper that the character of brokerage networks shapes the capacity of citizens to hold their politicians and bureaucrats to account. Employing over two years of ethnographic fieldwork in both India and Indonesia, I develop a comparative framework that compares brokerage networks in terms of their degree of fragmentation, institutionalization and levelling. In Indonesia the versatile and more state-centered nature of brokers networks plays into the hands of incumbents, while the fragmented and more levelled nature of India's brokerage networks strengthens democratic accountability. I use this comparison to advance the argument that the evolution of brokerage networks constitutes an important, yet little-noticed dimension of democratization processes. When citizens gain access to public services through networks that are fragmented, institutionalized and less marked by social hierarchies, politicians and bureaucrats face stronger pressures to perform.