Déjà vu! The effect of previewing test items on the validity of the Concealed Information polygraph Test

Abstract

This research compares resident, peer and staff reports of bullying and victimization in one open facility and one secure facility for young offenders. The prevalence of bullies and victims was higher according to resident reports (self-reports) than according to peer or staff reports. There was significant agreement between residents, peers, and staff in identifying bullies and victims. The majority of bullies and victims identified by peers and/or staff were also identified by self-reports. Making the plausible assumption that bullies and victims tend to be concealed, it is concluded that self-reports (in the context of an individual interview) provide the most reliable and valid information about bullies and victims in young offender institutions. Hence, anti-bullying strategies should be based on self-report data.     

Trafficking in Nuclear Materials: Criminals and Terrorists

The essay examines the networks that facilitate the transport of nuclear materials from the source to their possible purchasers. Analyzing the role of prisons in criminal operations, the interaction of criminals and terrorists, and the character of new organized crime groups, the author concludes that some of the most serious nuclear smuggling is not random or opportunistic. Rather, the most serious trafficking is rarely detected because it is run by professionals whose well established smuggling networks, facilitated by corruption, have the capacity to move significant quantities of diverse contraband without apprehension. Technical solutions to address this problem are not sufficient because detectors cannot identify well guarded HEU. Rather, much more attention needs to be paid to the crime and terror networks that can facilitate this trade.     

“第三条道路”与朴槿惠政府对朝政策走向

朴槿惠在韩国总统竞选期间与胜选后多次指出,要改善对朝关系,既不继续大国家党李明博政府的强硬政策,也不采取民主党金大中政府与卢武铉政府的“阳光政策。’’,宣称要走“第三条道路”。本文首先分析另外“两条道路”,即“阳光政策”与李明博对朝政策之间的主要分歧。以此为背景,本文从影响朴槿惠对朝政策的因素入手,指出朴槿惠对朝政策“第三条道路”的出发点是要改变另外“两条道路”非“软”即“硬”的做法。总体方向上很可能是安全上继续保持强大威慑与高压态势,但在经济合作等层面释放更大善意与灵活性。在不降低李明博政府强硬政策“硬”的一面的同时,继承“阳光政策”“软”的一面,甚至会更软。最后部分也指出了在朝鲜第三次核试验后“第三条道路”的实施前景。     

侵财犯罪女性PHI（心理健康）问题研究

随着我国经济、社会的发展和转型,社会矛盾越发激烈和凸显,犯罪形势出现新情况新特点。近年来我国女性犯罪呈现严重发展态势,女性财产犯罪在女性犯罪中占较大比重,成为女性主要犯罪型态之一。本专题研究采用心理测量方法,从调查实证角度研究女性犯罪中的财产犯罪问题,对D市看守所在押女犯人进行PHI心理测查调查研究。统计结果显示被调查犯罪女性与正常成年女性对照,在多项因子上存在显著差异,与其他特殊群体对照,在多项问题倾向方面存在相似之处。以此为基础分析财产犯罪女性的人格特征,希望为相关部门做好女性犯人心理矫治工作提供参考依据,为预防和打击女性犯罪,提高社会文明程度探讨有效途径。     

大陆、台湾地区的犯罪心理测试比较研究

对比两岸犯罪心理测试技术,大陆司法界仍然抱着怀疑态度,而台湾地区则持有谨慎相信的态度。在仪器引进研发上,大陆以仿制和自主研发为主,台湾地区以进口为主;在法律效力上,大陆是辅助侦查手段,台湾地区是辅助证据;在测试主体标准及培养方式上,大陆参差不齐,台湾严谨慎重;其他如测试技术客体标准,测试的实施条件、测试环境等方面,大陆和台湾地区基本相同,略有差异。海峡两岸均应更严格地对犯罪心理测试技术实施资质管理,提高准确率,以期为法制昌明而出力。     

Analyzing the Performance of Risk Assessment Instruments: A Response to Vrieze and Grove (2007)

In a recent article, Vrieze and Grove (Law Hum Behav, doi: 10.1007/s10979-007-9092-x , 2007) argue that, because of low recidivism base rates and limited predictive accuracy, an actuarial risk assessment instrument (ARAI) may produce decisions about sex offenders that are worse than simply predicting that no one will commit another sex offense. This article examines: (1) the construction and potential overfitting of ARAIs; (2) the meaning, value, and limitations of ROC areas; and (3) the relationship between the operating point that maximizes an ARAI's correct classifications and the legal criterion-"likely to reoffend"-used for sex offender designations. Contrary to what Vrieze and Grove suggest, ARAIs of modest accuracy yield probabilistic information that is more relevant to legal decision-making than just "betting the base rate."     

朝鲜核问题的三种解决前景与中国的政策选择

朝鲜核问题有三种发展变化前景:第一种前景,美国对朝发动军事打击,引发东北亚局部战争;第二种前景,通过谈判和平解决,朝放弃核武计划,美等有关国家向朝提供经济与安全补偿;第三种前景,朝在时机有利时突破核门槛,成为事实上的核国家。第一种前景和第三种前景都不符合中国的利益,中国应努力争取朝核问题循第二途解决。     

试论高素质警察的测评和培养

公安工作的发展需要高素质的警察。高素质的警察由三个方面的要素构成:卓越的能力、健康的心理和优秀的品质。提高警察素质的动力来自于竞争和忧患,提高警察素质的途径是终身职业教育和跨学科、跨部门教育。     

核损害赔偿的基本原则

核能的和平发展和利用,是20世纪人类最重大的科技成就之一。核电站于上世纪50年代左右开始起步,到本世纪已经达到了商业化发展的水平,成为一种具有吸引力的能源。但是,核能的和平利用在给人类社会带来巨大好处的同时,也伴随着巨大的风险。随着前苏联切尔诺贝利和日本福岛等重大核事故的不断发生,核安全特别是核损害赔偿问题日益引起国际社会的广泛关注。通过对与核损害赔偿有关的国际公约和各国国内法进行系统整理,总结出核损害赔偿的基本原则,可为我国制定《核安全法》提供有益的经验。     

黄芪甲苷通过调控Keap1-Nrf2-ARE信号通路减轻PM2.5诱导的肾小管上皮细胞氧化损伤

目的 探讨黄芪甲苷减轻细颗粒物2.5(particulate matter 2.5，PM2.5)所致肾小管上皮细胞氧化损伤的作用及分子机制。方法 将HK-2细胞分为5组：对照组（仅磷酸盐缓冲液处理）、模型组（200 μg/mL PM2.5处理24 h）、黄芪甲苷低剂量组（200 μg/mL PM2.5及10 nmol/L黄芪甲苷共同处理24 h）、黄芪甲苷中剂量组（200 μg/mL PM2.5及100 nmol/L黄芪甲苷共同处理24 h）、黄芪甲苷高剂量组（200 μg/mL PM2.5及200 nmol/L黄芪甲苷共同处理24 h）。采用流式细胞术和TUNEL检测不同方法处理的HK-2细胞凋亡情况，采用EdU实验和CCK8实验检测细胞增殖情况，采用Western blot检测不同方法处理的HK-2细胞中Kelch样环氧氯丙烷相关蛋白1（Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1，Keap1）-核因子红细胞相关因子2(nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2, Nrf2)-抗氧化反应元件（antioxident response element, ARE）信号通路相关蛋白的表达水平。结果 流式细胞术和TUNEL染色结果显示，黄芪甲苷显著抑制PM2.5导致的肾小管上皮细胞凋亡，其抑制效果随黄芪甲苷浓度的增加而增加。CCK8检测结果和EdU细胞增殖检测结果显示，黄芪甲苷显著促进肾小管上皮细胞增殖，细胞活力随黄芪甲苷浓度的增加而增加。进一步检测显示，黄芪甲苷显著抑制PM2.5导致的肾小管上皮细胞活性氧和丙二醛水平升高，并显著促进超氧化物歧化酶和谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶水平的升高。Western blot结果显示，与模型组比较，黄芪甲苷处理显著提高总Nrf2、核Nrf2、血红素氧化酶-1以及NAD（P）H醌脱氢酶1（NQO1）水平（P＜0.05）。结论 黄芪甲苷通过调控Keap1-Nrf2-ARE信号通路减轻PM2.5导致的肾小管上皮细胞氧化损伤。