Is the Sum Greater than the Parts? The Terms of Civil War Peace Agreements and the Commitment Problem Revisited

The dominant theoretical approaches to civil war negotiations in the field of political science have sought to explain both the scarcity and high failure rates of negotiated agreements in civil conflicts. This historical pattern, however, has fundamentally changed in the last two decades as changes in international norms and laws, as well as the increased prevalence and competence of peacebuilding professionals, now require conflict actors to have a greater commitment toward negotiations and the enforcement of agreements. While actors in interstate wars seek to avoid accountability, civil war actors seem to embrace the opportunities that these new dynamics create to achieve broad‐based reforms across numerous areas of policy and government. The result, we suggest, is that stakeholders evaluate agreements based on their potential to accomplish an array of sociopolitical objectives. In addition, for strategic and practical reasons, they perceive that those agreements that include more reforms across multiple policy sectors will have the greatest potential. Our examination of nearly two hundred agreements found evidence that the peacemaking potential of a negotiated agreement between civil war adversaries is greatly enhanced when reforms are pursued across many different policy domains. Conversely, our analysis suggests that the greater the number of policy areas left untouched by a peace agreement, the more likely the stakeholders will be to follow that agreement with additional negotiations to enhance that agreement, or, alternatively, the more likely that violence will resume.     

减低艾滋病危害措施与中国禁毒法律冲突问题初探

艾滋病严重威胁着人类生存与健康 ,为了有效控制艾滋病的蔓延 ,“减少伤害”的策略应运而生 :外展活动、同伴教育、药物替代治疗、针具项目、提供安全套。但是 ,目前世界上通常所使用的减低艾滋病危害的有效措施与我国现行的法律和政策有诸多抵触的地方 ,如何协调国家政策、法律与减低危害措施的实施是一个亟待解决的课题。     

德国吕特案判决五十年来的社会影响

1958年1月15日德国联邦宪法法院对吕特案做出的判决，曾经引起德国社会极大的关注。长期以来，该判决确立的一系列重要原则，包括宪法的适用效力可对私法产生间接的辐射效应、客观价值秩序可作为基本权利与私法益发生冲突时的衡量标准、表达自由在基本权利中居于基础性地位等等，已经成为法学界和司法实践部门的共识。50年后的今天，德国法学家对这一判决的历史价值仍表现出持续关注，并做出更为系统的评价。吕特案判决的贡献在于建立了一个普遍适用于战后西方国家的用于解决基本权利冲突的范式。     

Sectoral Opposition to Carbon Taxes in the EU – a Myopic Economic Approach

Over 10 years ago the EU Commission proposed a directive on carbon taxes, but faced so much domestic resistance that agreement was not reached until last year – and after it had been considerably watered down. The aim of this paper is to look into economic reasons for the political infeasibility of extensive carbon taxes. Since opposition is believed to arise prior to the policy implementation, the cost estimates have a myopic character compared with market estimates, in the sense that sectors are presumed to take into account their own substitution opportunities, but disregard changes in other sectors as well as the macroeconomic welfare gains from a tax regime. With this myopic approach, we estimate and compare costs of emissions cuts across sectors and across countries in the EU, showing how different sectors might have anticipated the impacts from an expected carbon tax. This focus illustrates that what seems to be cost-effective and to the best for the region on paper turned out too controversial to be politically feasible.     

波斯纳的比较管理优势说——兼论冲突法与自由贸易

针对私法冲突,波斯纳(Richard A.Posner)提出了“比较管理优势说”(Comparative Regulatory Advan-tage Theory),分析一州在某类案件上的管理优势,主张适用符合比较管理优势标准的冲突法规范解决法律冲突。比较管理优势说以州为中心,运用法经济学方法分析了州际私法冲突,主张通过州与州间的合作实现冲突法效率的最大化。但该理论亦存在很多的缺陷与不足。以比较管理优势说为起点,运用贸易理论上的绝对优势与相对优势模型,结合法院地法主义与适当的适用外国法的理念,我们可以看出冲突法在法律适用上应追求“自由贸易”。     

商品房买卖中买受人与抵押权人的权利冲突研究

在商品房买卖中,买受人在依其与房地产开发商之约定支付购房款,并实际入住所购买的房屋后,开发商未依约定为买受人办理产权过户。在买受人完全不知情的情形下,开发商又将已出售给买受人的房屋抵押给银行,因而在同一个物上既有债权又存在物权,对此法律应当如何调整?尤其在开发商“恶意”抵押时,能否认定抵押无效,并以此来保护“弱势”的买受人呢?对这些问题在理论上加以探究,为将来物权法对此类问题有一个明确的制度安排。     

共识的国际战略效应:一项理论性探讨

共识是国际关系研究和实践中的一个重要概念,既有国际合作理论和战略理论研究等均将共识作为合作的基本条件或潜在假定之一,而在国际关系实践中将追求、落实和巩固共识作为一项基本的外交目标和合作实践。在共识的主体间认知分析基础上,国际共识的类型可以细化为真实共识与部分/虚假共识、消极共识与积极共识等范畴。基于共识的层次分析,塑造共识既成为国际合作的重要基础和条件,也是国际冲突消解的一种重要方式和途径,而部分共识或虚假共识具有重要的国际合作促进作用,同样在特定条件下它也能引发、激化和升级国际冲突。部分共识或虚假共识的国际合作与冲突辩证效应以及消极共识的冲突效应均成为共识的国际战略效应理论分析的核心内容。基于多层次的共识类型分析,共识的国际战略心理学研究包括合作与冲突的效应讨论。共识的国际战略效应分析能够重构共识与国际合作、共识与国际冲突的理论逻辑,对于分析和辨析国际关系中的共识实践具有重要的政策启示。     

试论政府化解社会矛盾纠纷的多元机制

深入研究新形势下社会矛盾纠纷表现和特点,积极探讨政府依法化解社会矛盾纠纷的基本路径,对于维护社会和谐稳定、保障改革开放深入推进和社会主义现代化建设事业的顺利进行具有重要意义。     

乌克兰国家安全危机分析

冷战结束后的相当长时间内,乌克兰在对外战略的抉择中不断陷入困境。在与国际体系的互动过程中,因处于大国地缘竞争的过渡地带,造成自身在领土安全和国家稳定方面的悲剧局面。乌克兰的外交重点处于西方或俄罗斯这两种外交方向的不断转换之中,通过平衡这两种政策的运用来增进国家的实力和利益。与此对应,大国通过遵守规则予以奖励,漠视规则进行遏制与惩罚的方式来应对乌克兰的对外行为。其结果是乌克兰与周边大国的互动逐渐陷入循环往复式的困境,处境变得日益糟糕。乌克兰内部的认同冲突根源于其处于特殊的地缘政治地带之上的历史互动与实践,并最终造就乌克兰的弱国家地位,使得其在国际体系中处于边缘化的角色,国家安全与诉求长期遭到漠视,在内外冲突的互动过程中,乌克兰的国家安全问题不断恶化。     

Five Areas of Value Judgement in Local Adaptation to Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change has generated several new theoretical and policy challenges, many of which concern how local communities ought to adapt to a warmer climate. This paper identifies and analyses a number of value judgements that come to the fore as local authorities adapt to climate change. Five categories of judgements are discussed: evaluation (how should the consequences of adaptation be evaluated?), timing (when should adaptive action be taken?), distribution (how should the benefits and burdens of adaptation be distributed?), procedures (who should be involved in adaptation decision making?), and goal conflicts (how should goal conflicts in adaptation be dealt with?). For each category, further research is needed to assist decision making at the local level.