Les groupes d'intérêt économiques face à un changement de paradigme: le cas de l'énergie nucléaire en Allemagne

Cet article s'interroge sur les conséquences de la décision allemande de 1998, qui prévoit l'arrêt de la production d'énergie nucléaire, sur les relations entre les groupes d'intérêt économiques et les acteurs gouvernementaux. L'hypothèse est que ce changement de paradigme énergétique entraîne un changement des relations entre ces acteurs. A partir de l'étude des cadres cognitifs et des stratégies des acteurs, l'article étudie les différentes phases de transformation de la politique énergétique allemande. Si les changements graduels des années 1980 et 1990 ont mené à des adaptations à la marge, la décision de 1998, entraînant la mise à l'écart des groupes d'intérêt économiques, contraint ces derniers à élaborer de nouvelles stratégies: ils cherchent à compenser leur perte d'influence au niveau national par de nouvelles collaborations à l'échelle européenne et au niveau international. Ces stratégies restent néanmoins influencées par les structures nationales.     

The application of miniplex primer sets in the analysis of degraded DNA from human skeletal remains

A new set of multiplexed PCR primers has been applied to the analysis of human skeletal remains to determine their efficacy in analyzing degraded DNA. These primer sets, known as Miniplexes, produce shorter amplicons (50-280 base pairs (bp)) than standard short tandem repeat (STR) kits, but still utilize the 13 CODIS STR loci, providing results that are searchable on national DNA databases. In this study, a set of 31 different human remains were exposed to a variety of environmental conditions, extracted, and amplified with commercial and Miniplex DNA typing kits. The amplification efficiency of the Miniplex sets was then compared with the Promega PowerPlex 16 system. Sixty-four percent of the samples generated full profiles when amplified with the Miniplexes, while only 16% of the samples generated full profiles with the Powerplex 16 kit. Complete profiles were obtained for 11 of the 12 Miniplex loci with amplicon sizes less than 200 bp. These data suggest smaller PCR amplicons may provide a useful alternative to mitochondrial DNA for anthropological and forensic analysis of degraded DNA from human skeletal remains.     

美国实战威慑核战略：理论、历史与现实

以《不扩散核武器条约》为基础的国际防扩散制度已经走过了半个世纪,如今却面临日益严峻的挑战。对于全球防扩散与核裁军进程出现的倒退,美国负有特殊的责任。这突出表现在三个相互关联的理论、历史和现实问题上。首先,经典核威慑理论并不能充分解释美国矛盾的核战略和防扩散政策。以实战威慑和延伸威慑构成的绝对自由核战略才是长期指导美国核政策实践的根本。其次,通过对20世纪50～60年代的冷战史进行再挖掘可以得知,一般认为的美国核战略在主张核武器用于实战的保守派和主张核武器仅用于威慑的自由派之间摇摆,实际上夸大了自由派对美国核战略的影响。美国在大多数总统任期内将绝对自由核战略作为拱卫其构建战后国际秩序和获得对苏联战略优势的关键。最后,核武器与非核武器的互动是当前核时代的一个显著特征。随着新技术革命的兴起,传统的核威慑和战略稳定正面临极为复杂的挑战。然而,美国依旧以核常融合、攻防兼备构筑绝对优势,并以新兴技术、跨域威慑确保全面制胜。其结果持续引发由核武器与常规武器互动、谋求技术先发优势以及追求绝对自由所导致的"三元悖论",从而对全球战略稳定和国际防扩散制度产生进一步冲击。     

After the Fukushima Disaster: Japan's Nuclear Policy Change from 2011 to 2012

This article analyzes why and how the cabinet of Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) decided in September 2012 to phase‐out nuclear power plants by 2039—the decision representing a large policy change from previous energy‐supply policy, in which the dependence on nuclear power would continuously grow. In doing so, this article examines the causal relationship between three factors identified on the basis of theoretical models explaining policy change; change in the governing coalition from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to DPJ in 2009, the Fukushima accident, and the change in public opinion. Based on opinion poll and deliberative polling data, as well as discourse analyses of DPJ leaders’ statements, the article concludes that the change in public opinion on nuclear energy after the Fukushima accident was crucial in inducing the DPJ's decision to phase‐out nuclear power plants by affecting DPJ leaders' interests in vote‐ and office‐seeking. Finally, I discuss the applicability of the theoretical models developed on the basis of U.S. pluralistic cases to Japan and the issues to be explored for the further development of policy process models.     

Fuel for thought? South Africa's position on the multilateralisation of the nuclear fuel cycle

The proponents of international nuclear fuel banks maintain that these banks will contribute to nuclear non-proliferation, whereas those opposing it maintain that nuclear weapon states support these banks in order to control and multilateralise the nuclear fuel cycle, thus preventing developing states from developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Global inequalities pertaining to nuclear energy continue to persist despite developing states’ efforts to reform the international nuclear energy regime. Moreover, some developing states maintain that these nuclear fuel banks perpetuate inequality in international relations. This is one of the reasons why some leading developing states, such as Brazil and South Africa, oppose these banks. South Africa, for example, intends to re-establish its nuclear fuel cycle and has declared uranium a strategic resource. Against the aforesaid, this article, following a constructivist approach, analyses the emergence and social construction of nuclear fuel banks as a practical expression of nuclear non-proliferation norms. The discussion also considers the inter-subjective understanding of these banks, as well as South Africa’s opposition to them. The article concludes with an analysis of the implications of these opposing views for global equity, equality, nuclear non-proliferation and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.     

Anti-American,pro-Chinese sentiment in South Korea

Anti-American, pro-Chinese sentiment is spreading widely in South Korea. This phenomenon is caused by extreme US-ROK policy dissension over matters related to North Korea, especially the nuclear questions, and South Korea's emotional attachment for China based on historical and geopolitical factors. In order to prevent this irrational situation from damaging the mutual interests of both Washington and Seoul, the two capitals should come up with mutually acceptable options for nuclear issues—placing more gravity and priority on dialogue over sanctions as a matter of strategy. Coercive measures can be employed only as a last resort. In order to maintain peace, to fulfill the political responsibility as a great power in East Asia, and to reciprocate to South Korea's positive expectation, Beijing should play a more constructive role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issues and in inducing Pyongyang to open up and reform more aggressively.     

Investigating DNA barcodes of plants growing in some areas of Iran with high crime rate: Quercus brantii,Curpressus arizonica,Crataegus pentagyna,Ziziphus Spina-chtista,and Buxus hyrcana

According to criminal botany, the offender unknowingly carries plant samples from the crime scene. Therefore, studying the genetic data of plants native to the crime scene can solve many ambiguities in the criminal files. In this regard, the aim of this study was to investigate the genome of 5 endemic plants in some areas of Iran with high crime rate. Quercus brantii, Curpressus arizonica, Crataegus pentagyna, Ziziphus Spina-chtista, and Buxus hyrcana were assessed using 1 genetic fragment on plastid regions (trnH-psbA) as well as 1 gene on nuclear chromosome called ITS. The alignment of DNA sequences of trnH-psbA and ITS genes was done using BioEdit, Clustal X, and Muscle v4.0 software programs. The phylogenetic analysis was performed on aligned data using Maximum Parsimony (MP) and the Bayesian methods. The Splits Tree v.4.14.4 software program was used for phylogenetic network analysis. Finally, the data combinability test was conducted using the Incongruence Length Difference (ILD) test by PAUP* software program. All data from nrDNA ITS and trnH-psbA sequences were consistent with Information Compatibility Test (ICT) results. Moreover, the nrDNA ITS indicated more resolved relationship than trnH-psbA. The results from MP and Bayesian analyses did not differ significantly between singular and combined forms, except for a slight variance in confidence interval of branches. As the phylogenetic trees provide more thorough and deeper conception of species relations, it is hoped that they would be useful to illuminate some forensic gaps in regions with high crime rates enriched by these plants, not only in Iran, but also in all areas over the world with this vegetation.     

1H‐NMR with Multivariate Analysis for Automobile Lubricant Comparison

Identification of suspected automobile‐related lubricants could provide valuable information in forensic cases. We examined that automobile lubricants might exhibit the chemometric characteristics to their individual usages. To compare the degree of clustering in the plots, we co‐plotted general industrial oils that were highly dissimilar with automobile lubricants in additive compositions. ¹H‐NMR spectroscopy was used with multivariate statistics as a tool for grouping, clustering, and identification of automobile lubricants in laboratory conditions. We analyzed automobile lubricants including automobile engine oils, automobile transmission oils, automobile gear oils, and motorcycle oils. In contrast to the general industrial oils, automobile lubricants showed relatively high tendencies of clustering to their usages. Our pilot study demonstrated that the comparison of known and questioned samples to their usages might be possible in forensic fields.     

论新兴工业与现代服务业融合发展在东北地区产业结构中的战略意义

在调整东北老工业基地产业结构中,有人认为工业是东北的特色,应该扬长避短。几次调整后,东北地区产业结构中的服务业仍然低于全国的平均值。根据国际和国内一些政治经济核心城市发展的规律,现代服务业与新型工业的发展如影随形,已经形成互动机制,现代服务业与新型工业是融合发展的关系。这也是新一轮经济发展的特点,东北地区经济发展应该顺应这种趋势。     

朝鲜的核、导战略态势及其影响

朝鲜实施导弹发射和地下核试验,意在实现核拥有,籍以提高对美战略的筹码。朝鲜开展核战略角逐由来已久,先后展开过以守为攻;“边缘”对应;将计就计;以硬对强四个回合。角逐结果虽不乏战术上的小胜,却丧失了战略上的大胜。此番的导弹试射与地下核试验可视为第五个回合,是朝鲜核、导角逐战略“以攻为守”的转换。朝鲜执意实现核拥有纵有多种原因,却因核、导本身所拥有的“双刃剑”作用,带来于己、于他都不利的负面影响。包括:自食其言,愈加难以取信于国际社会;产生连锁反映,引发新一轮的军备竞赛;挑战核不扩散条约,难免遭到更大封杀;破坏合作气氛,延缓统一进程;置中国于尴尬境地,动摇中朝关系基础。朝鲜的“自行其事”难免遭到国际社会更加严厉的抵制。