Retrospective and Prospective Performance Assessments during the 2004 Election Campaign: Tests of Mediation and News Media Priming

According to many theoretical accounts of the vote choice, distal determinants (e.g., party identification) influence proximal determinants (e.g., perceptions of candidates), which in turn shape candidate preferences. Yet almost no research on voting has formally tested such mediational hypotheses. Using national survey data collected between February and September of 2004, this paper begins by illustrating how to conduct such investigations. We explored whether public approval of President Bush’s handling of a series of specific national problems (e.g., the Iraq war) influenced overall assessments of his job performance and evaluations of his likely future performance versus John Kerry’s, which in turn shaped vote choices. The results are consistent with the claim of mediation and shed additional light on the impact of various issues on the 2004 election outcome. We also tested what we term the “dosage hypothesis,” derived from news media priming theory, which posits that changes in the amount of media coverage of an issue during the course of a campaign should precipitate changes in the weight citizens place on that issue when evaluating the president’s overall job performance, particularly among citizens most exposed to the news. Surprisingly, this analysis did not yield consistent support for the venerable dosage hypothesis, suggesting that the conditions under which priming occurs should be specified much more precisely in future work.

谋划“改革顶层设计” 跨越“中等收入陷阱”

中国30多年的改革取得了辉煌成就,由低收入国家跃升到中等收入国家,面临着跨越＂中等收入陷阱＂的考验。中央提出＂改革顶层设计＂方略,登高望远、总揽全局,应对新挑战。在新的历史条件下,不应停留在＂摸论思维＂上,应当加强理论支撑,并吸取世界各国跨越＂中等收入陷阱＂的经验。我国在今后一段时期,重点应放在社会体制改革上。     

民事诉讼构造的理性认知

民事诉讼构造（又称诉讼模式）的两种形式,即二元构造和三角构造的基本原理和特征是由民事诉讼领域的一些基本规律决定的     

市场经济背景下国有财产结构的二元化设计

随着我国市场经济的完善和发展，不同类型的国有财产的法律地位和法律制度进一步复杂化。根据国有财产所服务的公共利益的特点——为特定的公共利益服务还是为一般的公共利益服务——国家所有权的客体有必要建立以公共国有财产与普通国有财产为基本类型的国家所有权客体结构。     

试论德国双元制教育模式对我国警察职业教育的启示

我国一直在积极探索警察教育体制改革的新途径和新方法。在世界教育领域享有盛誉的德国职业教育双元制教学模式,注重实践能力的培养,其运行机制和教学模式对我国市场经济环境下的警察职业教育的发展有着重要的影响。我们应该以警察教育体制改革为契机,借鉴和引进德国双元制教学模式,以培养实战型的公安人才为基本目标,并在思想层面、机制层面和课程设计层面突出实战能力的培养。     

"边缘区"城市化的困境与反思

城市边缘区空间的社会问题日趋严重,其三大"致病原因"是城市化空间演化规律失衡、赶超型现代化发展模式不健全及城乡二元结构分治的体制.缺乏对边缘区空间社会特性的完整把握,导致目前我国政府针对边缘区问题制定的对策尚存在着缺漏.     

Excavating Concealed Tradeoffs: How Russians Watch the News

Citizens in democracies are expected to make better decisions if they understand policy tradeoffs. However, politicians rarely have incentives to communicate them; citizens are uncomfortable choosing among valued outcomes; and devising a common metric is difficult. It is not surprising that in the United States the environment provides relatively little cuing or priming of tradeoffs in television news. Russian citizens, on the other hand, face a media environment in which tradeoff cuing is intentionally suppressed by owners' agendas, yet viewers detect concealed tradeoffs even in the absence of tradeoff priming and viewpoint diversity. Analysis of discourse among ordinary Russians in 16 focus groups convened in four cities, differentiated by political reform and media market environments, showed that when watching news in which tradeoffs are thoroughly concealed, viewers challenge stories by offering a broad spectrum of uncued tradeoffs. Tradeoffs come from diverse policy domains and represent a range of cognitive strategies, some of which are considerably more abstract than others and link elements of their observations and assumptions (together with what they can extract from the stories) into complex reasoning outcomes.     

Terror of the talk: a new framework for countering terrorism within the institutionalisation of the terrorism industry

The “terrorism industry” that has been constructed by the war on terror has become institutionalised in the past decade, contributing in part to a significant increase in the overall public perception of terrorism and a dilution in meaning of the term “terrorist.” A linear regression analysis of the relationship of poll data collected from American citizens and frequency and lethality of terrorist attacks shows that this increased awareness has occurred despite the fact that terrorist attacks on American soil have decreased over the past decade. Considering the often-stated purpose of terrorists is to inspire fear, a central goal of the industry and the government should be to diminish these effects. However, the frequent and offhand use of the term “terrorist” fails to contextualise and counter the varied dispositions and motivations of terrorists and other non-state actors. To reduce public worry while working within the boundaries of the institutionalised terrorism industry, the study of terrorism should be conducted, and counterterrorist policies designed, using a new interdisciplinary framework that would allow the terrorism industry and the government to move beyond the binary designation of “terrorist” and “non-terrorist” to a greater spectrum of classification, from terrorists and violent non-state actors, to guerrillas, insurgents or criminals. A more nuanced framework could reduce public fear of terrorism and increase the effectiveness of counterterrorist policies.     

二元劳动力市场背景下就业质量的提升机制研究 ——基于 CLDS 数据的实证分析

中国城市劳动力市场的二元分割背景下,劳动者的就业质量提升机制呈现出一定的差异性。研 究基于资本和职业流动视角,利用中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据,多重考察和检验不同劳动力市场影响劳 动者就业质量提升的因素。研究发现：首要劳动力市场就业者的知识人力资本、弱关系型社会资本、干部职位 政治资本对提升就业质量有积极作用,次要劳动力市场就业者通过提升知识人力资本、技术人力资本、弱关系 型社会资本、干部职位政治资本提升就业质量;首要劳动力市场就业者通过主动、自愿的职业流动实现就业质 量的提升,次要劳动力市场就业者通过增加职业流动次数有效提升就业质量;资本因素对首要劳动力市场就业 者通过职业流动提升就业质量不具有抑制作用,但一定程度上会抑制次要劳动力市场就业者通过职业流动提升 就业质量的作用。因此,要充分了解劳动者的诉求与真实就业状况,帮助次要劳动力市场就业者增加资本 ( 人力 资本、社会资本、政治资本 ) 的投入和积累,以提升其就业质量。