From issues to goals: a novel conceptualisation,measurement and research design for comprehensive analysis of electoral competition

Abstract

The analysis of issue politics has long suffered from a fragmentation between valence and positional conceptualisations, preventing the effective development of a general model of issue-based party competition. Building on an overview of the evolution of party competition in the Western world in recent decades, this article offers a theoretical development that builds on ‘issue yield’ theory to provide a conceptualisation of political goals that generalises across positional and valence issues. This in turn allows a common measurement strategy, offering the possibility to comparatively assess various characteristics (including the electoral potential) of both positional and valence issues. Finally, it describes the specific research design derived from this framework and its implementation in comparative perspective in six West European countries during 2017–2018.     

Campaigning in an unprecedented election: issue competition in the French 2017 presidential election

Abstract

The 2017 French presidential elections featured an eventful campaign, produced astonishing results, and presented important signs of party system change. This paper analyses the main lines of divide of the demand and the supply side of electoral competition. It analyses the structure of citizens’ preferences, as well as the candidates’ strategic issue opportunities, relying on issue yield theory. To that end, it combines data from an original individual-level survey with information about the candidates’ Twitter messages. It is found that the traditional model of two-dimensional political space, characterised by an economic (left–right) and socio-cultural (integration–demarcation) dimension is largely challenged. On the supply-side, the analysis offers additional evidence for the central role played by the integration–demarcation divide, while showing that the traditional left–right conflict has not fully disappeared.     

Are Overlapping Local Governments Competing With Each Other When Issuing Debt?

Local public services are produced through various overlapping jurisdictions. This study examines how the issuance of municipal general obligation bonds is affected by the tax policies of overlapping local governments. The findings challenge the hypothesis that the shared tax base would be overused in a common-pool resource scenario. Instead, the empirical results show that the issuance of general obligation bonds is more likely in jurisdictions where counties and school districts make more intensive use of the property tax. These findings highlight the importance of the signals local governments receive from their overlapping neighbors regarding voters’ demand for additional public spending.     

Quality challenger emergence under the top-two primary: Comparing one-party and two-party general election contests

Prior research finds that the emergence of a quality challenger is one of the most important factors predicting whether incumbents will be vulnerable. Reformers in California and Washington envisioned that the top-two primary reform would increase electoral competition by allowing for general election contests that feature two same-party candidates in safe districts. In this research note, I investigate the degree to which these expectations have been fulfilled by looking at the prevalence of quality challengers in U.S. House contests. I compare one-party and two-party general election contests, finding that incumbents are significantly more likely to face a quality challenger from the same party than from the opposite party, all else equal. In contrast, when both states used traditional primaries prior to reform, incumbents were no more likely to face a quality challenger in the primary election than in the general election. Findings reveal a key way in which the top-two primary may fulfill reformers’ expectations and complement our understanding of how electoral institutions condition challenger entry decisions.     

Do parties perceive their voter potentials correctly? Reconsidering the spatial logic of electoral competition

Political parties strive for maximizing their vote shares. One way to achieve this goal is to attract voters from competitors. A precondition for strategies aiming at attracting these voters is that parties perceive their voter potentials among their rivals' electorates correctly. Yet, hardly anything is known about such perceptions. To fill this gap, we develop analogue measures of a party's perceived and its actual voter potential for each competitor in a party system. Combining elite and mass surveys conducted in Germany, we show that perceived and actual voter potentials depend on spatial considerations but also that not all parties are able to correctly evaluate their potentials. These deviations can be traced back to differences in the perceived placement of political actors between elites and citizens. This supports the spatial logic of party competition but it also points to potential pitfalls for strategic behavior of political parties.     

Investigating Sales Tax Revenue Competition Among Principal Cities and Their Neighboring Cities in Texas

ABSTRACT

While research has explored the economic importance of principal cities on regional economies, little is known about the short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between principal cities and their neighboring cities as it pertains to their sales tax revenue elasticities and the subsequent affect this has on horizontal tax competition. Using vector error correction models on data from six principal cities in Texas, the findings of this study suggest that the relationship between principal and neighboring cities is highly dynamic and unique for each principal city. The study recommends that local economic policies should reflect these unique relationships.     

大国战略竞争与美国对华技术政策变迁

世界政治领导国的对外技术政策很大程度上源于应对大国战略竞争的需要。当美国面临直接、迫切的大国战略竞争压力时,更愿意通过放宽技术进口和出口限制来争取合作者、应对竞争者,即"利用强者打败更强者"。自20世纪70年代以来,美国对华技术政策经历了从逐步放松再到加强限制这一过程。苏联的安全竞争压力迫使美国在加强对苏技术出口限制的同时,放宽对华技术出口限制。日本的经济竞争压力促使美国在加强对日技术进口限制的同时,放宽对华技术进口限制。应对直接、迫切的大国战略竞争压力,会促使世界政治的领导国更重视当期利益,同时也为潜在竞争者的成长提供机会。而当苏联和日本对美国构成的大国战略竞争压力逐渐褪去时,美国对华技术政策再度面临调整压力,以致于今为甚,通过发起对华贸易战,打压中国高新技术产业,全面收紧了对华高技术进出口限制。美国的技术竞争将是今后很长时间中国技术进步难以绕过的阻碍。     

Small winners and big losers: strategic party behaviour in the 2017 Dutch general election

Abstract

This article analyses party strategies during the campaign for the Dutch general election of March 2017, making use of issue-yield theory. It investigates whether parties strategically emphasise high-yield issues, by juxtaposing the issue opportunities provided by voters with parties’ issue emphasis during the campaign. More specifically, it asks whether parties strategically emphasised issues that were expected to reward them electorally. Analysing voter preferences and party campaign data, it is found that parties and most of their constituencies show high ideological consistency, that parties emphasise mostly positional issues and thus choose a conflict-mobilising strategy, and that most parties emphasise high-yield issues rather than following the general political agenda. Four small parties that won significantly behaved strategically while the social democrats – who severely lost – hardly did. The findings imply that the issue-yield framework can help to explain the election result in the fragmented Dutch multi-party context.     

财政市场、土地资本化与异质性城市化

在以政府为主导的城市化进程中,土地财政成为了地方政府“经营城市”的重要手段。我国土地财政规模大、比例高,其形成不仅源于地方政府财权、事权不对等和地区之间、官员之间的竞争,究其质里,则是政府实现财政市场目标的行为投射。地方政府融资平台也基于相同的逻辑生成,帮助实现了土地财政的本质——资本化,弥补了地方政府的财政缺额。但是,土地的资本化提高了城市化成本,衍生出异质性,形成了空间与人口的矛盾,积累了凝结在城市中的金融、社会和道德风险,亟需引起重视。     

商标恶意抢注法律规制路径探究

商标恶意抢注有违诚实信用原则,应予规制。适用我国现行《商标法》规制恶意抢注在注册确权、侵权救济和法律责任承担方面存在局限性;基于《侵权责任法》保护民事权益的范围所限,商标恶意抢注并非均为民事侵权行为,适用《侵权责任法》难以对恶意抢注实施全面规制;以《反不正当竞争法》规制恶意抢注,可对其启用行政调查措施,并通过法律责任承担规定使得恶意抢注人为此承担民事责任和行政责任,但须以竞争关系的存在和构成不正当竞争行为为适用要件,因此存在边界限制。为有效规制恶意抢注,应当结合前述立法的功能定位选择多元化法律规制路径,并从明确恶意抢注商标不予注册、规定未经实际使用的注册商标不得转让、限制恶意抢注商标的请求权方面对我国商标立法以制度完善。