以色列阿拉伯人的社会地位

阿拉伯人问题构成以色列族类问题的另一维度,其特殊性在于他们面对的是以色列的主体民族——犹太人.犹太复国主义意识形态把他们列为“异族”,以色列与阿拉伯国家长期交恶的历史与现实将他们置于尴尬境地.虽然以色列阿拉伯人的生活水准有所提高,但他们仍然被摈于国家一切重要的决策圈之外,在政治、经济上受到公开或潜在的不平等对待,而且很难对这个国家产生归属感.消除族类差别,达到真正的民主和平等,是以色列阿拉伯人追求实现的理想目标.     

主体民族主义与国族构建的悖论——以色列民族政策思想之评析

以色列是一个以犹太、阿拉伯两大族类为主体的多民族国家。国家的犹太属性、内部殖民主义和分而治之是以色列处理与国内阿拉伯人民族关系的基本思想。以色列的民族政策造成阿拉伯人在社会生活的各个方面遭受挤压、歧视,成为经济落后、政治孤立的少数族类,与主流社会十分疏远。这一现实与以色列理应将全体国民纳入其民族国家构建范畴,以塑造统一的政治文化共同体和国族认同的民族构建产生了直接的悖论,并且从根本上制约着国家的稳定、健康与和谐发展。     

阿拉伯基督教徒与中东政治

历史上,中东地区的阿拉伯基督教徒长期处于“受保护人”的地位,但他们仍为阿拉伯文化的发展作出了贡献。近代以来,他们引进西方近代价值观念,积极投身于民族解放运动,推动了阿拉伯文化的复兴和民族意识的觉醒。现代民族国家建立后,阿拉伯基督教徒首次获得了平等的公民地位。他们积极投身于新生的阿拉伯国家社会建设,并有力地促进了国家的政治稳定与发展。鉴于阿拉伯基督教徒的特殊身份,国际社会对他们寄予厚望,期望他们能够在基督教-伊斯兰教、阿拉伯-西方文明对话中发挥积极作用。     

中东欧国家的罗姆人民族问题

本文着重介绍中东欧剧变以后该地区罗姆(吉卜赛)人问题的新情况,并就问题产生的根源及历史背景作了阐述与分析。文章从罗姆民族的名称、种族、语言、历史、分布、政治和经济地位的现状等不同角度对罗姆人的基本情况作了简要论述,还对一些问题提出看法,如“罗姆人”、“吉卜赛人”和“茨冈人”等名称辨析;罗姆人的分布情况和该民族人口统计数字的准确性;罗姆人在中东欧剧变后面临的严重困难及其产生原因;罗姆人与其居住地区原住民族的文化差异和历史遗留问题等。文章最后指出,中东欧国家政府、社会各界以及罗姆人自身为改变该民族的困难处境,作出了很大的努力,但由于问题十分复杂,罗姆人状况的改善将是一个漫长的过程。     

阿曼"参与型政治"的发展

阿曼"参与型政治"主要表现在苏丹的"亲民之旅"和政治宽容,以及其他机构和制度的构建,如国家咨议会的建立;<国家基本法>的颁布;协商委员会和国家委员会的成立;行政系统的阿曼化;重视妇女对国家发展的作用;公共服务系统的完善.但是,阿曼"参与型政治"并不等于西方的民主化.它是卡布斯苏丹将阿曼现实国情与阿拉伯-地区文化传统基因有机结合所产生的政治统治机制.阿曼"参与型政治"表明:根植于伊斯兰传统的阿曼可以孕育政治多元化、经济平稳发展和文化和谐交往的现代社会.     

阿尔及利亚外交政策的特点

阿尔及利亚独立 40余年以来经历了 5任政府 ,这 5任政府的外交政策各有不同 ,概括起来有 5大特点 :由于双方有千丝万缕的联系 ,突出与法国的特殊关系 ;受当时国内及国际背景影响 ,加强与社会主义国家的关系 ;鉴于民族属性 ,发展与阿拉伯世界的关系 ;地缘政治因素使阿尔及利亚开展与非洲国家的合作关系 ;在新形势下密切与世界强国的关系。这 5大特点构成了阿尔及利亚各个历史时期外交政策的核心。     

20世纪阿拉伯民族主义的特点

阿拉伯民族主义有六个主要特点第一,从思想特征和政治实践上看属于文化民族主义的类型;第二,关于“阿拉伯民族”的概念经历了一个逐渐扩大的发展过程;第三,其主要和共同的目标是争取民族自决,而在独立后的政治、经济、社会发展和对外政策方面存在重大分歧,并表现为不同的发展阶段;第四,阿拉伯民族主义与国家民族主义、地区民族主义和教派主义之间存在着复杂关系,阿拉伯民族的统一和合作因此受到妨碍;第五,阿拉伯民族主义与伊斯兰教和泛伊斯兰主义之间也存在着复杂关系;第六,战后阿拉伯民族主义在目标上的多元化与经济合作的迟缓.     

在变与不变中前行——-2011年拉美和加勒比形势回顾与展望

2011年拉美和加勒比地区形势保持相对平稳,其基本发展趋势没有改变.政治形势在稳定中有变化,选民更加务实,民生主导政治将成趋势,顺应民心的调整将成为常态,在变与不变中保持平衡成为拉美政治稳定的挑战.2012年墨西哥和委内瑞拉大选将对地区政治产生重要影响.拉美经济持续增长,宏观经济继续保持稳定,“反周期”政策作用明显.未来,拉美经济仍面临通胀和结构性调整的压力,欧债危机对拉美实体经济的影响不容忽视,世界经济低速常态化将会带来新挑战,个别国家和地区经济内在矛盾有可能激化.社会形势喜忧参半,就业和收入有所改善,极端贫困人口增加,毒品、有组织犯罪和暴力问题依然突出,部分国家印第安人自身利益与政府开发资源、发展经济的矛盾将有可能成为新的社会问题.对外关系基本格局未变,新的变化正在出现,区域合作分层化和自贸区板块化的趋势显现,地区主义出现不同选项,对外关系面临新的调整.     

伊拉克民族构建问题的根源及其影响

作为文明古国的伊拉克 ,在今天仍然存在着较为严重的民族构建问题 ,主要根源是 :领土和统一国家形成的晚近及各地区间联系的薄弱 ,现代伊拉克的版图最终确立至今不到 6 0年 ;库尔德人与阿拉伯人之间尖锐的民族矛盾影响到国家的稳定 ;逊尼派和什叶派的教派矛盾 ;游牧民的频繁袭扰与部族社会的长期存在 ,在定居农村、甚至城市中不同程度地保留了部落关系及其价值观念。它们对伊拉克现代民族国家和社会经济的发展产生了深远的负面影响 ,其具体后果有 :经济规模的小型化、血缘关系的长期存在及阶级关系的不发达、小党派林立并深受传统因素的影响、激烈而血腥的政治斗争及统治者的独裁等。     

对当前中东局势演变的若干思考

当前中东局势动荡其实是中东国家迫切需要的政治和社会转型的一部分,对地区国家的政治改革和社会进步具有明显的推动作用,但阿拉伯世界作为整体被再次分化和削弱。旧的秩序被打破后,阿拉伯世界的传统意识形态面临新的时代挑战。西方试图将中东变革引入所谓民主化轨道,未来中东地区有可能形成多元政治架构,但其过程漫长,且中东各国政治进程的发展难以摆脱本地区历史、宗教、文化和社会现实的影响。我们应将美国西方的介入置于当前国际体系加速转型,世界政治、经济权势向非西方国家转移的大背景下加以观察。中东动荡短期内会分散美国关注重点,但不会改变其从中东总体收缩的态势,更不会动摇其战略东移步伐。     

Political violence in Algeria

It is estimated that over 20,000 people have died in civil conflict in Algeria since January, 1992, and no resolution is in sight. This article analyzes the current state of civil violence in Algeria in terms of a theory of collective rebellious behaviour stressing falsification of public preferences, adapted from the work of Timur Kuran. The theory links social and psychological factors to explain why the outcome of the political challenge mounted by radical Islamic groups has been stalemate rather than an Islamic revolution or the restoration of stable authoritarianism. It suggests that the outcome of the struggle in Algeria is unpredictable.     

Ritual,strategy, and deep culture in the Chechen national movement

This paper probes the dichotomy between strategic performance of cultural text and a strong approach to culture that sees fundamental texts as encompassing and determining social action. The central question posed is whether the paradigmatic emphasis on strategy in cultural analysis of protest and social movements misses the compelling influences that cultural texts may exert under certain conditions. Regarding protest movements and political contention, I am especially interested in the ‘deep textual grammar’ of the conflict, which can strongly constrain and guide social action. By identifying and analysing the deep cultural text of the Chechen nationalist movement for the period 1989–1999, this study shows that, in addition to strategic decisions, movement trajectories are sometimes strongly – almost ritualistically – culturally determined. As a first step towards reconceptualising the role of culture in social movements and to spur further investigation, this paper offers several propositions derived from the Chechen case about the relationship of deep culture and mobilisation.     

In the name of king,country, and people on the Westminster model and Bhutan's constitutional transition

In 2008 Bhutan inaugurated a written constitution thereby instituting the state as a constitutional monarchy. The constitution is almost unanimously described as democratic by international media and academics. The ease with which this apparent consensus on its democratic character has been achieved, however, raises the important question of how best to approach the theory of constitutional democratization. In approaching the issue of democratization as a move towards popular control, this article discusses the ambivalence of the Bhutanese constitution towards this principle in a cultural context where social order is seen as constituted within the unity of king, country, and people. Curiously, this language is not as unique to Bhutan as one might expect, but influenced by the Westminster legacy in its emphasis on the principle of “Crown in Parliament”, its ritualization, and ideas of political inequality. It raises the question whether this model is suitable as a blueprint model for countries with different historic and cultural trajectories from the European ones? The article advocates a novel approach to the analysis of constitutional transition that transgresses the dichotomy between an institutional and linguistic approach, thus opening up interesting new insights on the waxing and waning of processes of expanding popular control.     

Amnesty,peace and reconciliation in Algeria

Amnesties constitute the most contentious issue in transitional justice processes. While largely rejected for contravening international law and being morally objectionable, political realities may sometimes force us to accept them in the interest of peace and stability. Determinations about the desirability and effectiveness of amnesties to promote peace thus need to look beyond legalistic claims, and take into account the specific political context within a country, as well as the nature of the amnesty itself. Taking the case of Algeria, where an amnesty was adopted in 2005 with the Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation, this article argues that although the amnesty can be justified partially by the fragile political context in Algeria and may contribute to reducing levels of violence in the country, its effective contribution to peace and reconciliation will be limited because it has, so far, not been accompanied by other political and economic measures necessary to bring peace and stability to the country, and because it promotes amnesia and largely ignores the plight of the victims of the war.     

The German community in 19<Superscript>th</Superscript> century Hong Kong

This article examines the development of the German community in Hong Kong between the 1840s and the outbreak of the First World War. It pays particular attention to the question of how the Germans, as a minority group in the crown colony, attempted to strike a good balance between integration and segregation, cultural assimilation and dissimilation, national identity and marginalization. Through investigating their social life, missionary activities and economic activities in Hong Kong, it shows that they, on the one hand, cooperated closely with the British who were in charge of key political and economic affairs, and on the other hand worked with the local Chinese on different social stratums. Although the unification of Germany in 1870 strengthened the sense of nationhood among German people in Hong Kong, they strove to strengthen the German cultural and economic network that already existed in and around the colony, without sacrificing their business and social interests which were interwoven with those of the British and the local Chinese. It is this strategy that enabled them to survive in Hong Kong until 1914.     

Globalization and Political Violence, 1970–2008

The question of globalization's effect on social harmony continues to be fiercely debated. We use a comprehensive measure of globalization (the KOF index) designed to capture the intensity of connectivity among countries along economic, social, and political dimensions. Our results suggest that globalization, particularly economic and social globalization, predicts a lower risk of civil war and political repression, but economic globalization predicts lower repression even after unit heterogeneity is accounted. When country fixed effects are accounted, political globalization's effect is problematic for human rights, suggesting that politically influential states escape the constraining effects of globalization on political repression. Indeed, globalization generally shows up as more important than per capita income, a variable often found to be one of the most robust determinants of political violence. The results taken together support those who argue that increased globalization may enhance prospects for social progress, not social resistance and political violence as skeptics claim.     

Associations and democracy in Algeria

What role does associational activism play in political life in the Middle East and North Africa? Have associations been largely co-opted, thus reinforcing authoritarian governance? Or are they part of drawn out democratization processes, emerging over the last two decades, exploding during the Arab Spring? Divergences in responses to these questions have been striking. From initial optimism about the potential of associations to contribute to democratization, much recent literature has been increasingly pessimistic, framing associations as part of the problem of failed political transformations. Algeria, in particular, despite minimal donor funding, has seen a surge in associations over the last 20 years. Yet, these 93,000 new associations have come under scrutiny. Building on extensive fieldwork, this article explores Algerian associations at grass-roots level, after the decade of violence in the 1990s. It analyses how associations challenged the state during the Arab Spring, how they question historical state narratives and challenge government policies. Despite political and structural obstacles, it is found that Algerian civic associations do not inhibit democratic society, indeed they enable it, not necessarily as transformative actors, but as meaningful democratic agents pushing for reform.     

How Accurate Are Survey Responses on Social Media and Politics?

How accurate are survey-based measures of social media use, in particular about political topics? We answer this question by linking original survey data collected during the U.S. 2016 election campaign with respondents’ observed social media activity. We use supervised machine learning to classify whether these Twitter and Facebook account data are content related to politics. We then benchmark our survey measures on frequency of posting about politics and the number of political figures followed. We find that, on average, our self-reported survey measures tend to correlate with observed social media activity. At the same time, we also find a worrying amount of individual-level discrepancy and problems related to extreme outliers. Our recommendations are twofold. The first is for survey questions about social media use to provide respondents with options covering a wider range of activity, especially in the long tail. The second is for survey questions to include specific content and anchors defining what it means for a post to be “about politics.”     

试析新加坡的文化软实力

新加坡在发展的过程中积累了自身的文化软实力。其文化软实力可从政治制度和政治文化、社会制度和社会模式、意识形态和价值观念、文化多元与整合、文化艺术、教育科技等6个方面来进行分析,可概括为：高效清廉的政治、新加坡特色的民主社会主义、基于儒家伦理的共同价值观、和谐的多元文化、优雅的文化艺术、腾飞的教育科技。     

Expert intervention: knowledge,violence and identity during the Algerian crisis, 1997–1998

Civil wars and humanitarian intervention became two of the most dominant security concerns of the 1990s and Algeria was one of the many sites where these discourses were played out, especially during the wave of massacres that claimed the lives of hundreds (if not thousands) of Algerian civilians between mid-1997 and early 1998. The internationalization of the Algerian Civil War was driven as much by the horrific violence as by a lack of certainty as to the identity of those perpetrating the massacres. The indeterminacy of violence in Algeria provided the warrant for experts to fill the void. Yet interpretations of the violence in Algeria, coupled with the generic logics of intra-national armed conflicts and the use of international coercive force for the protection of human rights, produced divergent problematizations of the crisis. This paper thus examines the ways in which Algeria was, and often was not, produced as a civil war and a humanitarian crisis by expert and scholarly knowledge and practice. Through an analysis of the exclusionary effects of the dominant understandings of political violence in Algeria, we are able to understand the conceptual impasse that faced international action against the massacres.