浅议广东参与东盟次区域合作

近年来,广东省与东盟国家经贸往来日趋紧密。中国-东盟自由贸易区（CAFTA）建设为广东省发展与东盟各国的关系提供了更大的发展机遇。东盟次区域合作是东盟区域合作的重要组成部分,是东盟区域合作协议的具体落实。广东可以利用自身的体制优势、产业优势、对港澳台经贸优势以及侨乡优势,创新机制,积极参与东盟次区域合作。     

《东盟印太展望》及其战略启示

2019年6月,第34届东盟峰会发表了《东盟印太展望》,阐明了东盟关于地区合作的新主张。东盟正在改变以往模糊合作范围的地理概念,将其界定为依然相当模糊但大幅扩展的印太地区,反映出东盟对加强更广范围的地区合作已基本形成一致意见。尽管在达成共识的过程中存在一些分歧和保留意见,但东盟在当前国际和地区形势加速转型的关键时期,努力避免在大国博弈中被边缘化,尽力维护和增强东盟在地区合作中的中心地位。《东盟印太展望》的发布可谓是东盟的自保止损之道,体现出东盟各国深重的忧患意识。然而,此文件一定程度上也反映出东盟受美日澳法等"印太战略"的影响,具有一定的局限性。东盟未来需要有更加符合促进地区共同利益的精神,更能体现东盟的包容性、开放性、合作性,为建设更高质量的东盟共同体,促进地区和平与繁荣提供更强、更有韧性的动力。     

多区域经济合作下广西与东盟各国人才交流与合作开发思考

区域经济合作,必然要求区域人才交流与合作开发。广西作为中国与东盟等区域经济合作的＂桥头堡＂的地位和作用日益彰显,如何加强与东盟各国的人才交流与合作开发是当前广西人才开发面临的重大战略任务。本文试分析广西与东盟各国人才交流与合作开发的现状和存在问题,从而提出进一步加强广西与东盟各国人才交流与合作的对策措施。     

东盟区域反恐合作机制的演变与发展

随着恐怖主义活动的多样化以及国际网络化,反恐一直是东盟地区安全问题的重要主题,东盟不断发展和完善的合作机制对在该地区打击恐怖主义、维护地区安全与稳定方面起到了重要的作用。该地区打击恐怖主义的行动已从"单独行动"或者"双边合作"转变到"区域合作"之中,形成了以东盟为主导的系统的地区合作机制。     

中国视角中的印度与东盟关系

20世纪80年代末90年代初,随着冷战的结束和全球区域经济一体化浪潮的兴起,印度重新意识到东盟对其在政治、经济和外交上的重要性,及时提出“东向政策”。印度调整东盟政策,提升与东南亚的战略关系,是印度实施全方位外交、推行大国战略的重要组成部分,无疑将给东亚区域合作及中国东盟关系的未来发展带来重大影响。中国应适时调整与东盟、印度的关系,增强中印两国在东南亚的共同利益与合作愿景,推动中、印、东盟三边关系向更高层次发展。     

Multilateralism in a unipolar world: the UN Security Council and Iraq

The end of the cold war brought a new era in international politicsthat had the potential for creating a more cooperative and peacefulworld. At the heart of this ‘new world order’ wasto be the United Nations Security Council, which would finallybe able to fulfill its obligations under the UN Charter. Inthe immediate post-cold war years it appeared that this optimismwas well founded as the Security Council became increasinglyactive in authorizing peacekeeping and peace-building missions.Just over a decade later, however, the crisis over Iraq againbrought serious concerns regarding the UN's purpose and legitimacy.This article examines the circumstances surrounding the recentUN Security Council dispute in order to illuminate the meritsof multilateral cooperation. It also asks, more fundamentally,whether multilateralism can be sustained in a unipolar world.     

Mapping Internationalization: Domestic and Regional Impacts

This article introduces a conceptual design for mapping the domestic impact of internationalization. It proposes that internationalization leads to a trimodal domestic coalitional profile and advances a set of expectations about the regional effects of each profile. Aggregate data from ninety-eight coalitions in nineteen states over five regions suggests that between 1948 and 1993 the three coalitional types differed in their international behavior. Internationalizing coalitions deepened trade openness, expanded exports, attracted foreign investments, restrained military-industrial complexes, initiated fewer international crises, eschewed weapons of mass destruction, deferred to international economic and security regimes, and strove for regional cooperative orders that reinforced those objectives. Backlash coalitions restricted or reduced trade openness and reliance on exports, curbed foreign investment, built expansive military complexes, developed weapons of mass destruction, challenged international regimes, exacerbated civic-nationalist, religious, or ethnic differentiation within their region, and were prone to initiate international crises. Hybrids straddled the grand strategies of their purer types, intermittently striving for economic openness, contracting the military complex, initiating international crises, and cooperating regionally and internationally, but neither forcefully nor coherently. These findings have significant implications for international relations theory and our incipient understanding of internationalization. Further extensions of the conceptual framework can help capture international effects that are yet to be fully integrated into the study of the domestic politics of coalition formation.     

Learning From a Troubled Experience – Transatlantic Lessons from the Nuclear Standoff with Iran

With the US eventually embracing the European-devised ‘dual track’ approach comprising both sanctions and incentives, the transatlantic partners have currently reached a remarkable level of convergence on how to deal with the Iranian nuclear conundrum. Although EU--US unity might not be enough to solve the dispute, the experience of transatlantic cooperation on Iran offers some important lessons. It shows that strategic convergence between the transatlantic partners, or lack thereof, has a considerable impact on the way a crisis unfolds in an area in which both parties have a stake. It highlights the added value represented by European/EU political and economic assets in a situation in which US military options are both unlikely to have the desired effect and at grave risk of backlash. Finally, it sets an important precedent for a specific option for intra-EU and EU--US cooperation – the contact or lead group – that seems to suit the emerging multipolar world better than other, more institutionalised methods.     

新地区主义视角下的中国东亚区域合作外交

在全球化时代的世界政治中,东亚新地区主义的发展为20世纪90年代以来的中国外交提供了广阔的舞台。当前,东亚区域合作外交正在成为中国外交中一个日益凸显的亮点。在新地区主义理论的视野中,中国提出新安全观,塑造负责任的大国形象;提出并倡导“开放的地区主义”思想,为新地区主义在亚太地区的发展开辟了道路;积极推进“10+3”合作,着力发展“10+1”;积极参与东亚区域合作的制度化建设,支持东盟为推进东亚区域一体化所作的努力;以“10+3”机制为契机,深化中、日、韩三国合作。在未来的东亚区域合作中,中国应在加快自身经济发展的同时,让东盟国家从中切实受益;继续坚定不移地树立负责任的大国形象,发挥大国作用;切实按照《南海各方行为宣言》所规定的各项原则处理同有关国家的海上领土争端和历史遗留问题;大力发展中、日、韩三国经贸合作,切实推进三国次区域自由贸易区建设;以建设性的合作精神发展中美关系。     

Regional and multi-level governance: East Asian leadership after the global financial crisis

Although the economies of East Asia emerged from the global financial crisis of 2008 in comparatively strong positions, they remain structurally embedded within global markets. The degree of regional integration that has occurred within East Asia is thus predicated on the on-going interdependence with the economies of Europe and North America. Moves to advance East Asian regional cooperation in the wake of the crisis reflect this global interdependence, as well as intra-regional differences in interests and a lack of strong leadership within the region. Modest cooperation on an East Asian basis has continued since 2008 but the region is very far from realising a substantive regional governance model on economic and financial issues and does not appear to be pursuing a distinctive governance agenda. This article examines recent developments in East Asian regional cooperation, with a view to assessing the significance of current achievements and explaining the mixed and sometimes contradictory nature of initiatives for regional governance in East Asia.     

乌克兰危机:多维视野下的深层透视(英文)

In recent months, Ukraine has undergone dazzling tragedies and ordeals,revealing deep domestic conflicts, changes in the international strategic landscape and big power relations in the post-financial crisis era. This essay will analyze the Ukrainian crisis from the perspectives of social transformation, geopolitics, international order and regional order in the post-imperial period.     

Regional and interregional integrative dynamics of ASEAN and EU in response to the avian influenza

The article explores the European Union’s and the Association of Southeast Asian Nation’s regional and interregional integrative dynamics in response to the avian influenza outbreak in East Asia of 7 years ago. It sketches the collaborative efforts from an institutionalist perspective and outlines the variables influencing the behaviour of regional organisations. To explain and predict behavioural patterns, the article takes into account the following moderating variables: the kind of affectedness, mode of regional and interregional cooperation, the degree of institutionalisation and the role of international actors. The independent variable is the crisis itself. It replaces goal formulation for action and interaction during periods of normalcy. The succeeding paragraphs argue that a transnational crisis may trigger integrative dynamics and institutional change, but, that the mode of regional and interregional cooperation and the degree of institutionalisation matter in the long run and are the essential factors in differentiating the cooperative dynamics. These two variables are vital elements contributing to the institutional design of a regional organisation. In the end, the article views the institutional design to be the central and constant determinant of integrative behaviour both in times of and in absence of crises.     

Trade liberalization and the new regionalism in the Asia-Pacific: taking stock of recent events

In the aftermath of the regional financial crisis of 1997–98,many Asian economies have underscored the need consciously andaggressively to explore alternative liberalization paths or‘fallback positions’. This is where the ‘newregionalism’ or new regional trade agreements (RTAs) becomerelevant. This paper explores some of the primary rationalebehind, and main concerns regarding, the proliferation of bilateraland plurilateral trade pacts in the Asia-Pacific region. Italso considers the ‘dynamic time path’ of AsianRTAs. Do they facilitate or hinder multilateral trade liberalization?     

欧元区主权债务危机对东亚货币合作的启示

后危机时代,为了推动国际货币体系的改革,东亚货币合作成为世界各国关注的焦点。借鉴欧元主权债务危机及其产生的原因,东亚货币合作应进一步扩大共同基金规模,稳步推动地区金融与货币合作,并在区域内建立经济与金融状况监管体系与救助退出机制,有效防范各国金融与财政风险;加强政治对话与经济合作,在市场选择的基础上稳步推进区域货币合作发展;同时,推动国际信用评级体系改革,妥善应对信用危机。     

ASEAN's diplomatic and security culture: a constructivist assessment

In the wake of the Asian financial crisis and the subsequentviolence that built up and then tore apart East Timor in 1999,serious criticisms were levelled at the Association of SoutheastAsian Nations (ASEAN) and its diplomatic and security culture.This article examines to what extent members of ASEAN –after the Hanoi Summit in 1998 until mid-2001 – collectivelyembraced new understandings in relation to norms associatedwith the ‘ASEAN way’. This question is exploredwith respect to four initiatives: the initiation of the retreatof ASEAN foreign ministers, the participation of ASEAN membersin United Nations missions in East Timor, the adoption of theASEAN Troika concept, and the passing of rules of procedureof the ASEAN High Council. It is argued that due to concernsabout ASEAN's image and reputation, some of the shared understandingsintrinsic to ASEAN's long-standing diplomatic and security culturehave been relaxed, particularly the principle of non-interference.While this development reaffirms the value of constructivisttheorizing in international relations, the article also demonstratesthat the aforementioned initiatives and agreements do not yetamount to a radical change in ASEAN's diplomatic and securityculture. The main reason for this is that norms associated withthe ‘ASEAN way’ are still perceived to serve theimportant and necessary function of helping to mediate estrangementand insecurity among ASEAN leaderships, as well as limitinginterference by non-ASEAN states.     

ASEAN and Northeast Asia: stakes and implications for the European Union–ASEAN partnership

During the immediate aftermath of the 1997 ASEAN crisis, instead of promoting a further “deepening” of the integration process, ASEAN has preferred enlarging its membership and has opened up to its Northeast Asian partners, Japan, China and South Korea. The mounting economic trade flows among those actors necessitates calls for the coherent creation of effective regional structures. China in particular, among the three mentioned countries, has come to the fore with its diplomatic strategies concerning the regional architecture. As results of these recent changes, the structure of power and the nature of the regional system are altering and ASEAN is going through a decisive transition. Taking into consideration the speed of the evolving framework with the enlargement of an East Asian Community, ASEAN would need a new political vision for the region, for the redefinition of its internal balance of power and for the elaboration of a clear approach toward external partners. Crucial problems affect the entire area such as deficit of democracy, wide development gaps among the East Asian countries, the widespread need for economic liberalisation and need for new human and regional security policies. The EU would play a fundamental role in addressing these problems and would be well inspired to avoid considering Southeast Asia as just a mere periphery of China.     

From DPT to DTP? America's Own ‘Clemenceau–Poincaré Moment’ and Transatlantic Security

Abstract

This article asks whether the differing manner in which liberal-democratic allies perceive security threats might prove corrosive to their alliance. In effect, the authors seek to test the assumption that ‘democratic alliances’ and liberal-democratic security communities are virtually indestructible so long as the members remain liberal democracies. The case chosen for diachronic analysis is the collapse of Anglo-American-French comity in the immediate aftermath of the liberal-democratic allies' victory in the First World War. Argued here is that differential threat perception (or DTP) contributed significantly to the ending of meaningful security cooperation among the group. In this sense, DTP seems to have weakened the conceptual underpinning of the democratic alliance implied by democratic peace theory (or DPT).     

国际机制在东亚货币合作中的效用性问题

在国际经济体系中,有效的国际制度安排将引起行为体的利益追求以及行为体之间的互动关系发生变化,以致国际关系行为体将在多大程度上遵守国际机制的约束。东亚区域合作具有非正规化、非制度化等特点,东亚货币合作中的机制规范并非完全以制度的形式确定下来。东亚货币合作中的机制属性主要体现在一系列双边和多边的协议中,并且是以基础的机制层次如区域性危机防范、救援机制等为发展点。由于这些发展点具备了机制属性,国际机制在东亚货币合作中的效用性便应得到更多的关注,以使得东亚货币合作能被更好地加以规范和引导。     

东北亚区域经济合作新构想

进入 2 1世纪 ,东北亚地区国际合作开发的外部与内部环境、政治与经济环境均发生了明显的变化 ,随着美俄、俄欧和中俄间加强合作 ,东北亚地区也已由各国自主开发进入了双边及多边合作为主的开发阶段。根据东北亚地区目前所具备的条件 ,现提出在东北亚地区建立跨国经济合作区 ,并利用当前良好的国际、国内环境和已有的合作基础 ,促进区域整体合作目标的实现 ,推动东北亚地区经济合作进入一个新的阶段。     

The Great Powers and Regional Conflicts: Eastern Europe and the Balkans from the Post–Napoleonic Era to the Post–Cold War Era

The objective of this article is to provide an analytical framework for addressing the sources of great power regional involvement and its effects on regional conflicts. The thesis of the article is that variations in the degree of intensity of conflicts and the likelihood of successful conflict resolution in different regions are affected by the character of great power involvement in these regions. Our argument is that although great power involvement or noninvolvement cannot cause or terminate regional conflicts, it can either intensify existing local conflicts or mitigate them. We will propose causal linkages between balances of great power capabilities and interests, types of great power involvement in regional conflicts, and patterns of regional conflicts. The study will distinguish among four types of great power involvement in regional conflicts: competition, cooperation, dominance, and disengagement. The empirical section will examine the application of these propositions in seven historical illustrations, representing the four patterns of great power involvement in regional conflicts. All the illustrations will deal with one conflict-ridden region-Eastern Europe and the Balkans, in successive historical periods from the post-Napoleonic era to the post-Cold War era. Because of the variety of patterns of great power involvement in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, this region is uniquely suited to examine the propositions derived from the theoretical framework. Drawing on both the theoretical deductions and the historical illustrations should make it possible in the last section to discuss briefly the implications of the proposed framework for regional conflict management or mitigation in the Balkans in the post-Cold War era.