近代捕鲸业的发展与美俄两国在俄美地区的领土争端

近代远洋捕鲸业的开展不仅为美国国内创造了巨额利润,而且更深远意义在于当捕鲸者为了开发新鲸资源而游弋于各大洋面上时,客观上充当了政府政治利益扩张的先行者。随着美国捕鲸势力大量涌入太平洋西北海岸地区,俄国在美洲的统治受到威胁,俄美两国在该地区的矛盾逐步由商业利益之争走向领土、领水之争。阿拉斯加割让最终成为两国领土争端的解决方式。     

阿以争端的回顾与前瞻

阿以争端的回顾与前瞻洛阳解放军外语学院钮菊生阿以争端是中东问题的核心，其实质是巴勒斯坦问题，即领土之争。巴勒斯坦面积仅２．７万平方公里，但由于居住在这里的两个主要民族——阿拉伯人和犹太人，都声称自己才是真正主人，矛盾由此产生，并酿成无数次冲突和５次中...     

公地化:解决领土主权争端的另一种思考

国家间的领土主权争端反映的是国家之间在对地球空间产权私有化过程中的分配矛盾。建立在私有化分配方式基础上的领土主权争端已经成为威胁国际稳定、阻碍地区共同发展的重要因素。同时,应对领土主权纷争的传统手段也越来越不适应时代的需要。争议领土公地化为解决国家间领土主权纷争提供了另一种选择,即通过订立维护领土公共性功能的国际条约、创设有效的多边协商机制以及强调多元行为体的共同参与等方式,在一定程度上将争议领土公地化,从而克服由私有化分配方式制造的困局。在当今国际社会中,已经出现了运用公地化策略解决国家间领土主权纷争的成功实践、其中有代表性的包括国际社会应对南极洲主权争议的"冻结主权"原则的实践,中美洲三国对丰塞卡湾的共同行使主权。这些成功实践既涉及地球特殊空间,也涉及一般化的国家间领土主权争议。通过对国际社会中成功实践的考察,探索实现争端领土公地化的关键要素,有助于丰富应对领土主权争端的思路和手段。     

日俄接近新态势评估

日本首相安倍晋三二次执政以来,对俄采取积极主动的经济和外交攻势,希望推动日俄关系发生实质性的转变,最终缔结日俄和平条约以解决两国领土争端。在乌克兰危机及西方经济制裁的背景下,俄罗斯也希望同日本发展新型关系,以改善国内经济形势,巩固其在东北亚地区的战略地位。经过多番接触,日俄就缔结和平条约问题取得政治共识,双方大力推进经济合作,并以"2+2"会晤等形式积极探讨安全合作。不过,两国关系的未来走向仍受到领土争端、美国干预、东北亚地缘格局、公共外交不到位等因素的制约。     

东亚领土与海洋权益争议及其政治经济含义

本文围绕中日两国领土与海洋权益争议主要案例开展研究,概述争议的演变,探讨演变的动因,总结争议演变反映的国家间及地区内政治、经济关系的变化,并在此基础上总结东亚领土与海洋权益争议在冷战后显现的新特点。与所谓国家在领土、领海权益争端上寸土不让、难以妥协的一般观点不同,本文认为国家间政治经济关系的性质( 良好或紧张) 对解决它们之间的领土、领海争端有重大关联。鉴此,文章对东亚领土、领海争端的最终解决持积极、乐观态度。     

中印领土争端问题的危机管控机制

近五年来,中印边界地区领土争端问题既有缓和,也有紧张的局面。中国政府根据国内外形势的变化,提出了"打造人类命运共同体"、"发展同周边国家睦邻友好关系"、"不惹事,也不怕事"等维护国家领土主权的重要理论。中印双方通过高层互访、经济合作、外交和谈、军事沟通、民间交流等形式深化了中印边界地区领土争端问题的危机管控机制。中国政府在应对"帐篷对峙"、"藏南演说"、"中国入侵论"等危机事件中较好地管控了中印边界地区领土争端危机,维护了国家领土主权。     

缅甸和泰国领土争端的由来及解决前景

由于错综复杂的原因,缅甸和泰国之间具有复杂的领土争端,包括陆地边界领土争端和海域争端。缅甸和泰国一直谋求通过政治谈判解决争端。然而,由于领土争端涉及两国的核心利益,两国之间的领土争端一直没有得到解决,争端还对两国关系的正常发展造成了消极影响。     

中东国家领土与边界纠纷的安全视角分析(下)——非传统安全因素

从非传统安全视角看,中东领土边界争端与资源安全、经济安全,以及恐怖主义等因素休戚相关.中东重要的石油和水资源的来源地或储藏地通常位于有争议的边界地区或近海经济区内,从而导致中东地区的资源冲突和经济要道争夺往往与边界领土争端相互交织.恐怖主义不仅激化了中东国家间的仇恨,造成边界领土争端进一步复杂化与国际化,而且常常阻断边界领土争端和平解决的进程.从安全视角讲,解决中东国家领土与边界纠纷在很大程度上取决于转变国家安全观念与确立有效的地区安全机制.     

中东国家边界领土纠纷的民族主义诠释

民族主义是影响中东国家边界领土纠纷的重要因素之一.从国内层面讲,民族分离主义往往会诱发相关国家间的边界领土争端.从国家层面讲,边界领土问题与中东民族主义自身的发育情况、民族主义的政治和经济诉求,以及民族主义思想与传统观念的格格不入等因素密切相关.从超国家层面讲,泛民族主义不仅容易导致国内族际冲突的外溢,而且容易引发与现存主权国家体系的冲突,由此产生边界领土纷争.     

海洋权益争端对东北亚地区安全形势的影响——以独岛争端为例

东北亚地区海洋权益争端主要包括俄日北方四岛、中日钓鱼岛和韩日独岛之争，这些争端均有其复杂的历史成因。进入新世纪，随着海洋资源的重要性越发地被各国所认识，海洋权益争端也持续升温，从而导致相关国家外交关系的紧张。今年3月以来，韩日独岛争端升级，不仅使韩日关系陷入僵局，也加剧了双方海上军备竞赛，使得东北亚地区安全局势趋于紧张，并且还有可能对本地区安全的核心问题——朝鲜半岛核问题的解决产生消极影响。     

Conflicts between east European states and minorities in an age of democracy

Conflict between dominant and subordinate ethnic groups in eastern Europe has greatly complicated efforts to build stable and just democratic systems in the region. Leaders of new states as well as rulers whose authority extends from the communist era have attempted to create political systems where competition is clearly along ethnic lines. Polarisation and violence have resulted from the manipulation of ethnic feeling, but there are also a range of factors which have encouraged majority and minority representatives to show mutual restraint at crucial moments.

The internationalisation of East European nationality disputes and the gradual acceptance by a number of states of group rights to stand alongside individual ones, have cooled down a number of disputes and possibly forestalled new ones. But the national question will be a troubling one for many still‐fragile democracies unless strong external incentives are offered which encourage states to conciliate internal minorities and estranged neighbours.     

Exiles and the Marketing of U.S. Policy toward Cuba and Iraq

This paper analyses the role of Cuban Americans and Iraqi Americans as allies of like-minded public officials in the marketing of contested foreign policies to the United States public. Each of these ethnic exile communities played a traditional lobbying role as would be expected of interest groups, but the argument here is that the interactive relationship between the ethnic interest groups and government officials in advocating policy is the more interesting development in these cases. While there are differences in the two cases, the similarities between marketing an embargo and an invasion suggest that foreign-policy analysts may want to pay closer attention to the interactive relationship between exile communities and government officials in policy advocacy. I suggest in conclusion that we need to be wary of according defectors and exiles privileged positions in future foreign-policy debates.     

What future for Kirkuk? Evidence from a deliberative intervention

The “youth bulge” in developing countries means that we need to pay close attention to how young people want to be governed. That need is particularly great in developing countries that are also deeply divided. But in divided societies, conventional opinion polls often do not suffice, yielding shallow opinions hostage to elite machinations and mutual mistrust. To shed light on what young people would want if they had a chance to learn and deliberate about the issues, we follow a survey with an intensive deliberative field experiment in one such society – Kirkuk. Contrary to widespread concerns about the predominance of ethnic interests, young educated Kirkukis support the view that different ethnic groups should have an equal say. There is also broad support for an institutional arrangement – Kirkuk’s becoming an autonomous region – that may provide space for instituting “equal say”. And deliberating with balanced information broadens support for that arrangement.     

Unwelcome Neighbors: Shared Ethnicity and International Conflict During the Cold War

This article assesses the role of ethnic demographics and domestic ethnic rebellion in promoting international conflict. Three of the variables introduced examine dyads within which a common ethnic group exists. These variables are coded to distinguish the presence of a trans-border ethnic group that exists as a majority in both states; a majority in one state and a minority in the other; or a minority in both states. The pooled dataset, which covers the years 1951–1991, is analyzed using different types of data to account for both broad and narrow conceptions of ethnicity. The results indicate a strong and significant increase in dyadic conflict when two states share an ethnic group and an ethnic majority exists in at least one of the states. Ethnic rebellion is also found to significantly harm interstate relations when an ethnic diaspora is involved. Associations found between ethnicity and international conflict are most pronounced when international disputes involve fatalities.     

Dispute Resolution and the Politics of Cultural Generalization

This essay argues that generalizations about cultural identities and values should play a key role in designing procedures to resolve disputes. Generalizations about cultures are risky given the complexity of memberships and group boundaries, not to mention the power dynamics within and between social groups. But it is important to take the risk: attempts to avoid or transcend culture in resolving disputes pose and even greater, or reiterating the understandings of dominant cultural groups under the guise of neutrality. The author explores the "politics of cultural generalization" in theoretical terms, then considers its implications for concrete elements of dispute resolution training and process design.     

"Spontaneous" Interethnic Order: The Emergence of Collective, Path-Dependent Cooperation

Can "spontaneous," decentralized interethnic cooperation emerge among ethnic groups whose members heavily discount future interethnic relations and do not fear punishment for interethnic noncooperation? Why is it that once the interaction between two ethnic groups evolves along a certain (cooperative or conflictual) path it sometimes becomes harder for the interacting groups to reverse course and seek alternative paths? The answer to these two questions lies in the fact that individual members not only are always calculative and could hence act opportunistically, but also are interdependent and can learn from one another. Because the members of interacting groups operate interdependently they thereby create collective nonlinear path dependence. Using a social game (within evolutionary game theory) the article shows counterintuitively that the emergence of collective, nonlinear path dependence within and across ethnic groups whose members heavily discount the future and face no punishment for interethnic noncooperation makes "spontaneous" decentralized interethnic cooperation a long-run equilibrium. Collective cooperation can thus develop path-dependently among ethnic groups without a Damocles' sword of any sort hanging over their members' heads, even when most individuals are shortsighted and opportunistic.     

Ethnic and Religious Roots of Regional Conflicts in the Caucasus

The main causes of ethnic conflict are territorial issues and territorial disputes. In the Caucasus, all armed ethnic confrontations were initially interstate conflicts and at times were related to religious differences.     

国家认同与族群认同:以马来西亚为例

国家与族群具有不同的结构与功能,因而国家认同与族群认同的要素,特别是二者的认同基础存在较大的差异。正是这种差异决定着二者关系的基本形态。国家的公共性要求它不应该将政治政策偏向任何一个族群。族群平等是国家认同与族群认同的平衡点,否则,可能会导致政策所损害的族群对国家存在意义的质疑。马来西亚独立后,特别是20世纪70年代后,实施的正是偏向马来人的政策,从而造成非马来人对国家的不满。     

Holding Out for Concession: The Quest for Gain in the Negotiation of International Agreements

This study examines partition's success in ending old and preventing new ethnic conflicts. Opponents of partition often claim that partition only invites (further) conflict by its inability to divide existing multiethnic countries in ways satisfying to all concerned ethnic groups. In contrast, proponents of partition argue that partition is the only ethnic conflict solution that provides ethnic separation, an element that is key if conflict prevention is of concern. By separating the belligerent groups, partition provides safety and a decrease in the need for interaction between groups that do not get along. When domestic and international violence is considered, partition's consequences largely depend on the timing of partition. In cases of partitions resulting from ethnic secessionist conflicts, there is a widespread continuation of serious domestic conflict but its frequency does decrease significantly, to a level that can be considered "normal." Internationally, dyads made up of violently partitioned countries avoid militarized conflict in more than one-third of the cases. In cases of peaceful (i.e., preventative) ethnic partitions, domestic conflict starts up in about half of the cases, but despite the significant increase in its frequency, the frequency remains "normal." Internationally, dyads made up of peacefully partitioned countries avoid militarized conflict almost completely. Accordingly, peaceful ethnic partitions produce dyads that are significantly less likely to engage in militarized conflicts and wars than dyads emerging from violent ethnic partitions. Contrary to some expectations, partitions do not create overwhelmingly nondemocratic countries; however, in cases of violent ethnic secessions, democratic institutions do not exhibit significant pacifying effect on subsequent domestic conflict. Important caveats notwithstanding, the overall results indicate that peaceful ethnic partitions have conflict management potential.     

苏丹南北关系中的阿卜耶伊问题

内容提要阿卜耶伊问题始于20世纪60年代,是苏丹南北冲突的一个缩影,基于宗教和种族差异的农牧民冲突和石油资源争夺在其中扮演了重要角色。虽然阿卜耶伊是南北争端中的一个单独问题,但它与南方公投后苏丹南北面临的诸如南北边界划分、石油收入分配、安全安排、公民身份等重要问题息息相关。阿卜耶伊问题的解决与否直接关系到南北双方的未来关系。假如阿卜耶伊问题能够得到妥善解决,南北双方的和平分离就有望稳步推进,该地区也就可能成为解决其他悬而未决问题的模式;反之,阿卜耶伊将很可能成为苏丹的克什米尔,并使苏丹再度陷入南北战争的泥潭。