从中东动荡看美地区战略及新举措

最近中东地区政局激烈动荡,地区广大民众反美情绪高涨,充分暴露了美国中东战略的失误,主要表现在五个方面,其中美国的恣意横行成为引发地区动荡的一个重要诱因;巴以争端依旧,令阿拉伯人忧心忡忡。为了稳住中东,继续执掌该地区事务,奥巴马政府开始着手调整其中东政策,主要采取了五项措施,其中尤其值得一提的是,美国欲将埃及打造成＂民主过渡＂的样板,以促使其他国家仿效。     

2011年美国外交面临的挑战

2011年国际局势中的许多事态对美国的中东外交政策形成新的挑战。西亚北非的动荡和变局可能导致中东地缘政治版图重新绘制,对美国未来的中东外交必将带来许多变数;美国一巴基斯坦之间发生的事态可能对奥巴马政府的反恐战略及南亚战略提出新的挑战;巴勒斯坦不顾美国阻挠申请加入联合国,使美国与穆斯林世界的关系面临新的考验。这些挑战今后有可能进一步发酵,对美国全球战略产生影响,其中包括对奥巴马政府＂-3前高调进行的“重返亚洲”形成牵制。     

Mexico's Southern Flank: The “Third” U.S. Border

Mexico's crime-ridden southern frontier has become a veritable third U.S. border, as a constant flow of Central Americans and others cross into Mexico, often en route to the United States. As the number of unlawful migrants surges, their characteristics are changing: recent apprehensions include nationals of Caribbean, Middle Eastern, and Asian nations, and foreigners linked to terrorism are using Mexico as a thoroughfare to the United States. Mexico's immigration department is hindered by a number of factors in stanching this flow, and Mexican officials have only begun to publicly recognize the severity of the problem. Washington, too, must wake up to the security threat posed by Mexico's soft underbelly.     

Pivot but Hedge: A Strategy for Pivoting to Asia While Hedging in the Middle East

The U.S. government's new emphasis on the Asia-Pacific represents a bold strategic choice that could animate U.S. national security policy for years to come. Yet the United States must balance its rightful new focus on the Asia-Pacific with the volatility that still exists in other areas of the world. The United States should pivot to the Asia-Pacific—but to protect its vital interests, it should also hedge against threats elsewhere, particularly in the greater Middle East. To implement a “Pivot but Hedge” strategy, the U.S. government should do three things. First, it should exercise caution when cutting the defense budget. Second, it should give the military services greater leadership roles in specific regions: naval and air forces should lead in the Asia-Pacific, while ground forces should lead in the greater Middle East. Third, it should maintain expansible, capable, and well-trained ground forces as a hedge against global uncertainty.     

Middle East Transformation from the Perspective of U.S. Middle East Policy

The Middle East, one of the most turbulent regions in the world, has embarked on another round of chaos since America waged the Iraq war in 2003, new players vying to fill the power vacuum, entrenched hatred multiplying with new wounds. Ecstasy turned into agony as Americans watched the war unfold. U.S. think tank researchers and politicians, reflecting on the war and U.S. Middle East policy, urged the Bush administration to adjust the policy and break the strategic impasse. Under grave pressure from home and abroad, the White House finally began to respond. Against this backdrop, the year 2007 witnessed the most intensive and extensive shift of U.S. Middle East policy in recent years and a drastic return of realism in America＇s foreign policy. These policy changes rippled in the Middle East, precipitating policy changes of other powers and transformation of the geopolitical landscape. The Middle East, as we can see, is heading toward a new age of pain and growth.     

奥巴马治下美国“大中东”政策前瞻

奥巴马治下的美国对外政策的重点仍将是“大中东”。从伊拉克撤军,与伊拉克在政治、经济和安全关系协议方面作出规划,以解决美国在伊拉克长期利益和军事存在;可能与伊拉克进行谈判．但难度很大;中东和平进程有可能取得进展;阿富汗和巴基斯坦将成为美国的反恐重点地区;中国因素会受到越来越多的关注。     

U.S.＇ Middle East Policy

After the 9/11 incident, the United States further shifted its strategic focus on the Middle East. This article analyzes the strategic dilemma faced by the U.S. in the Middle East and the origins of its Middle East strategy. It uses an historical perspective by comparing former strategies with current policy.     

失去的十年：美国中东战略失败的理论探讨

十年前的“9·11”事件极大地改变了美国国际关系理论的走向,以“文明冲突论”为外交政策的理论指导,推行“武力反恐”和“民主改造”政策,引发伊斯兰世界反美情绪高涨。美国与伊斯兰世界的矛盾原本是二战后美国主导的世界经济秩序造成南北贫富悬殊的政治经济矛盾,而美国新保守主义却从唯心主义的思维方式出发,过高估计自身力量推行“大中东民主”,使得美在冷战后本有可能进一步巩固中东地位变得影响力大不如前。奥巴马上台后,虽然明确放弃布什时期“文明冲突”理念,努力缓解伊斯兰的反美情绪,但已很难超越中东已有的现实,十年错误路线导致的“外交后遗症”不是“灵巧外交”短期内所能挽救的。     

从“重返”到“再平衡”——奥巴马政府第二任期的东南亚政策

美国总统奥巴马2009年上台后,对东南亚表现出浓厚的兴趣并高调"重返",推出了一系列加强在东南亚存在的举措。2013年连任后,他将在未来4年继续把东南亚作为"亚太再平衡"战略的着力点。同时,奥巴马政府意识到其东南亚政策也需要进行"再平衡",应放缓军事"重返"脚步,在经济、政治、安全等领域全方位投入,均衡化、长期化地推进东南亚外交。国内财政限制、中东等地区外交挑战和外交人员人事变动等因素会对美国新一届政府的东南亚外交有所制约,但其未来政策走向仍将对中国周边外交和中美关系产生持续影响。     

奥巴马政府的综合性和平理念与中东和平进程

为改变中东局势恶化和美国在阿拉伯国家受损形象,奥巴马提出"综合性和平"的构想和政策,即:推动巴勒斯坦建国,敦促巴、以履行和平路线图职责,改善美国同叙利亚和黎巴嫩的关系,说服沙特等中东其他国家共同参与,以实现中东永久和平。然而,巴以矛盾能否调和,阿拉伯国家能否重树对美国的信任和信心,政策构想能否得到以色列和美国内犹太人财团的认知以及伊斯兰激进派的认可,都有待观察。     

美国对以色列军援政策的变化及其成因

自以色列建国以来,维护其生存和安全是美国历届政府一直不变的承诺,向以色列提供军事援助就是保障其安全的重要举措。美国主要从现实主义出发,根据其全球战略的需要来决定它对以色列提供军事援助的力度。由于美国在不同时期内对全球目标特别是中东战略目标有所不同,美国对以色列的军援政策也随之变化和调整,经历了一个限制——积极——以军援为施压手段——制度化——强化的演变过程。从未来发展看,美国与以色列在相当长时期内仍然互有所需,战略盟友关系不会变,美国对以色列的军援政策也基本上不会变。     

New Policies and Old Realities in the Middle East

Shortly after Barack Obama's victory in November 2008, the author addressed the “old realities” of U.S. interests and challenges in the Middle East, as well as the “new policies” the president-elect may choose to establish in this “perpetually troubled region.”This article is a slightly revised version of a lecture given on December 11, 2008, as part of FPRI's Robert A. Fox Lectures on the Middle East. It appeared as an FPRI E-Note in January 2009.     

美国的中东石油战略与中国能源安全

对于中国和美国这两个石油进口与消费大国来说,有世界油库之称的中东的战略地位不言而喻,但美国的中东石油战略实质上是一种霸权战略。美国这种霸权稳定论下的石油安全观及其中东石油战略,不仅排斥和谐世界理念下的中国和平发展石油安全观,而且成为引发或激发中东政治与石油形势动荡的深层根源之一。美国对中东石油霸权战略的实施和推进,对中国以商业原则与和平方式安全而稳定地获取中东石油形成了严重的制约和挑战。     

从中东变局透视国际秩序的演变

中东动荡不仅是该地区国家政治和社会发展历史进程的一部分,而且还深刻反映了国际秩序的调整与变化。冷战结束以来,国际环境的迅速变化以及世界政治经济权势的快速转移是诱发中东变局的重要原因之一。从时机上看,美国中东战略的收缩,为中东变革运动的兴起提供了可能;从发展上看,全球化的深入发展,拉大了中东与世界其他地区的差距;从理念和制度建设上看,改革创新的时代精神对缺乏机制和制度创新动力和能力的中东国家形成了巨大冲击。而正在转变中的国际秩序以及世界权力结构的变化趋势,也必将对未来中东地区秩序重构及各国政治及社会转型产生重要影响。     

Russia's Indirect Grand Strategy

Modern Russia is a revisionist, if not a revanchist, nation-state. It seeks to end the efficacy of the post-World War II institutionalized rules-based international order, which was created and maintained by the U.S.-led Western alliance. Russia pursues this objective to reclaim great power status and dominate the region and its borders. However, it lacks the strength to achieve this goal directly. To be successful, Russia must devise a strategy for bringing about cumulative changes in the relative power of the United States and Russia. And, it must do so while avoiding direct confrontation. A model for such an indirect approach exists.     

Descending Eagle: The 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review & the Decline of U.S. Power

This article reviews power transition theory and emerging threats to U.S. national security. It then analyzes how the 2014 QDR will ensure U.S. relative power decline and how the strategy fails to effectively counter the rise of China and Russia as challenger states in the international system. Finally, several policy options are proposed to address the deficiencies of the QDR and to counter an increasingly aggressive China and revisionist Russia.     

阿拉伯世界政治和社会动荡的原因及影响

阿拉伯世界出现激烈的政治和社会动荡，其原因十分复杂。美国等西方大国积极介入。这场动荡可能开启阿拉伯民众寻求新的发展道路的历史进程。当下这轮动荡由乱到治尚须时日。动荡对中东地区格局产生广泛影响。美国对中东事务的主导能力减弱，但其主导地位并未根本动摇。     

American Diplomacy and the Arab-Israeli Conflict

The Arab-Israeli conflict is a part of the regional puzzle, the author contends, but not the key to the regional puzzle in the Middle East. He further cautions that U.S. interests in the Middle East will not be well served by a U.S. President who is essentially the President of the Arab-Israeli conflict.     

U.S. Policy Towards Southeast Asia

Greater East Asia is expected to be the next theatre for world politics. 1 East Asian cooperation is rapidly developing through the channels of ASEAN Plus Three （APT） and East Asia Summit （EAS）, both driven by ASEAN. Southeast Asia is a region of diverse states and cultures that brings together all the major powers of the Asian-Pacific in a myriad of strategic interests. It is thus an open arena with the potential for a variety of strategic game-playing, options, and uncertain outcomes.2 In recent years, China＇s developing relationship with Southeast Asia has undergone a significant shift as the U.S.＇ distraction elsewhere and neglect of the region have created opportunities for an increased Chinese diplomatic and economic role in Southeast Asia.3 U.S. analysts are concerned about what may lie behind this shift in China-ASEAN relations, how it may affect American interests in the region and how best to react to the changes. Some have expressed concerns that to avoid becoming distanced from the region the U.S. should pay more attention to Southeast Asia, rather than just watching from a distance. This paper attempts to analyze the possible changes of U.S. policy towards Southeast Asia in the current context of East Asian Cooperation and its implications for China.