吉卜林：殖民文学中的印度书写——“殖民与后殖民文学中的印度书写”研究系列之五

英国作家吉卜林是典型的殖民文学作家.他的作品某种程度上遮蔽了印度被殖民的历史本貌,其滋生于帝国心态的帝国话语使其以一种居高临下的姿态表述印度主题,并以东方主义的视角对印度进行艺术直陈.本文分析了吉卜林的印度书写,探讨了他在殖民文学创作中反映的诸多问题.     

从普世主义与帝国传统走向民族主义——齐亚·格卡尔普的土耳其民族主义思想研究(下)

奥斯曼帝国晚期意识形态混乱困扰着处于孕育发展状态中的土耳其民族主义,这构成了齐亚·格卡尔普民族主义思想产生的重要历史背景.格卡尔普对较有影响的各种政治思潮进行了分析与批判,重点批判了奥斯曼主义和泛伊斯兰主义的帝国传统与宗教普世主义,倡导并支持以民族认同为基础的土耳其民族主义,其最高理想是通过政治、经济、法律、道德、语言、文学、艺术、宗教和哲学的民族化,摆脱外国侵略,获得民族独立,建立世俗的现代民族国家,实现土耳其的伟大民族复兴,并最终实现土耳其现代化.     

外来文化与俄罗斯社会政治的发展变革

在俄罗斯1千多年的历史发展进程中,始终存在着东方与西方两种文化因素的相互角力.两者共同作用于俄罗斯社会思想的形成及政治体制的变革,使俄罗斯逐渐成为既学习借鉴"西方"经验,又结合"东方"色彩,且又不同于两者的"欧亚主义"的典型特例.俄罗斯政治文化中所特有的包容性与务实精神,使外来文化成为其实现"神圣俄罗斯"帝国梦想的"加油站".而独特的"俄罗斯思想"无论在何种处境中,都将具有永恒价值和普遍意义.     

土耳其加入欧盟进程中的库尔德问题

在土耳其申请加入欧盟的过程中,国内库尔德问题是导致其入盟受阻的重要原因之一。由于土耳其对民族问题的偏激观念,加之土耳其法律对库尔德人争取民族权利的限制,土耳其国内库尔德问题始终难以得到解决。目前,库尔德问题不仅使土耳其无法达到欧盟的"哥本哈根规则"要求,而且还加深了土耳其和欧盟双方民众之间的隔阂,使得土耳其入盟的前景变得更加难以预测。     

土耳其战略转型及其局限

近些年,土耳其战略重心日趋由西方转向东方。这主要是由于三方面原因：西向战略边际效应递减趋势日益明显、土耳其东部地缘政治环境日益改善、土耳其国内政治气候发生根本性变化。但是,从长远看,土耳其东向政策的具体实施由于种种限制将会遇到重重困难。作为中等规模的国家,土耳其更适合推行东西平衡的中立政策。     

“中东波”以来土耳其外交的调整

2011年"中东波"以来,土耳其突破"零问题外交"政策,积极介入阿拉伯国家内部事务,推行更加"有所作为"的外交政策。土耳其外交政策这一系列调整是由中东格局结构性变化的外部动力、土耳其推销"土耳其模式"的内在冲动,以及土耳其政治家对时局的独特解读等多种因素综合作用的结果。长远看,这种外交调整收益与风险并存。     

从原始共同体到民族共同体——齐亚·格卡尔普的土耳其民族主义思想研究(上)

在青年土耳其党人的泛奥斯曼主义向凯末尔的土耳其民族主义转化中,格卡尔普的思想发挥了重要作用.格卡尔普的基本思想包括:(1)人类共同体可以划分为两大谱系,即"原始共同体"和"民族"."原始共同体"可分为4种类型:以氏族为基础的无差别的共同体;以氏族为基础的有差别的共同体;图腾组织全面退化的种族共同体;衰退的原始共同体.民族分为神学的、法定的、文化的、曾经独立但又在后来失去独立的民族4个亚种类.(2)宗教认同是与帝国相联系的落后的心理认同;民族认同是与民族国家相联系的先进的认同方式,从宗教共同体走向民族国家已成为历史发展的必然.(3)世俗民族主义思想,即:主张宗教与政治分离,反对宗教干预政治.     

土耳其的民族主义与现代化——论齐亚·格卡尔普"托古改制"式的民族主义

齐亚·格卡尔普是土耳其民族主义思想的集大成者.在他看来,20世纪初期土耳其的民族主义面临下列两个任务:从文化角度确定土耳其人的民族认同;把土耳其文化与西方文化相嫁接,走向现代化.格卡尔普民族主义思想的一个重要内容即通过"重构"出一个世俗的、进步的土耳其民族历史和文化传统,为土耳其学习西方、走向现代化提供历史的依据及合法性.这样一种"托古改制"式的民族主义思想,其最重要特征是把过去理想化,把走向光明的未来与回归荣耀的过去相统一.     

伊斯兰化后突厥人对外扩张与奥斯曼帝国兴起

伊斯兰化为突厥西迁后的重新崛起提供了历史性契机,土耳其帝国的兴盛虽然原因很多,但其成功的持续性社会动员是其兴起的重要原因。这一社会动员包含信仰的动员和物质化社会激励机制的动员。土耳其帝国社会动员的成功归结为其信仰成功的社会庸俗化。奥斯曼帝国实行的蒂玛制度、古兰制度和近卫军制度,是该帝国信仰庸俗化的制度化手段和连接信徒信仰追求与物质需要的纽带,它为普通信徒为信仰而奋斗提供了强大的动力、目标和精神支撑,也为他们沟通精神世界与物质世界提供了必不可少的现实基础,从而在客观上为奥斯曼帝国的崛起和兴盛奠定了坚实基础。     

评"新帝国论"及其缺失

近来,"新帝国论"颇受国际学术界关注.本文指出:1)当代帝国主义仍然存在,其表现形态为各种样式的霸权主义与强权政治;2)帝国与帝国主义是两个有差别的概念,本文提出了帝国的四个基本要素,并提出帝国主义性是帝国的对外霸权性;3)当今国际社会不存在帝国,美国不是帝国;4)"新帝国论"不仅是一种新殖民理念,更是一种虚幻的狂想,其理论缺失必然导致其实践的失败.     

世界政治“平靖进程”的技术变迁支撑

二战后,世界政治经历了"平靖进程",具体体现为:"大国罕有战事""国家罕有消亡"。本文融合国际政治经济学与国际安全研究,展示二战后的技术变迁改变了大国的"意愿"与"能力",支撑了世界政治新变化。在马尔萨斯时代,由于技术水平低下,生存物资稀缺,生存保障匮乏,人类面临持续的安全难题。二战后,技术发展影响了当代大国的"意愿"与"能力",让世界政治呈现新变化。技术变迁给大国提供了更为丰富的选择,让大国使用武力征服的意愿降低;同时,随着技术变迁,尤其是在"核革命"后,大国确保自身安全的能力更强,使得"大国罕有战事"。得益于技术变迁,大国利益半径扩大,即便距离遥远地域的变化也与自身息息相关,大国保障遥远海外利益的意愿提升;同时,技术变迁扩大了大国的权力投射,让世界各国,尤其是大国保障体系稳定的能力更强,致使"国家罕见消亡"。随着技术变迁,世界政治已呈现出很多与传统智慧不同的方面,孕育国际交往的新理念。     

“中间地带”:和谐世界的枢纽

地缘政治学说发端于西方国家对地区和全球权力的争夺。在这种学说的发展过程中,著名的地缘政治学者麦金德提出了"心脏地带"理论,斯皮克曼提出了"边缘地带"理论,其间还有二次世界大战时期德国的"生存空间"理论。在西方大国眼中,上述地区都是各自在世界权力竞技场中获得主动地位所必须加以控制的地区,从而导致了大国之间激烈的和长期的地缘政治斗争,世界性的战争和不稳定多由此而生。在笔者看来,这些或在地理上处在大国之间,或在政治上处在大国的强烈关注之下的"被争夺"地区应被称为"中间地带"。"中间地带"是国际政治中的力量凹陷地区,其产生的原因、展示出来的特征以及呈现出的意义都对认识国际政治和国际关系的内在本质具有独特的重要性。     

Economic Interdependence and the Balance of Power

To account for variance in great powers responses to threats and the implications for the peacefulness of the international system since the late nineteenth century, this article elucidates a theory which refines and synthesizes economic liberal perspectives and realist balance of power theory. I argue that different patterns and levels of economic interdependence in the great power system generate societal-based economic constraints on, or incentives for, state leaders of status quo powers hoping to mobilize economic resources and political support to oppose perceived threats. This mobilization process influences strongly the preferences of status quo powers, other states beliefs about those preferences, and the interpretation of signals in balance of power politics. In this way, economic ties influence the strategies great powers pursue. Firm balancing policies conducive to peace in the international system are most likely, I then hypothesize, when there are extensive economic ties among status quo powers and few or no such links between them and perceived threatening powers. When economic interdependence is not significant between status quo powers or if status quo powers have strong economic links with threatening powers, weaker balancing postures and conciliatory policies by status quo powers, and aggression by aspiring revisionist powers, are more likely. I then illustrate how these hypotheses explain the development of the Franco-Russian alliance of the 1890s and its effectiveness as a deterrent of Germany up to 1905, British ambivalence toward Germany from 1906 to the First World War, the weakness of British, French, Soviet, and American behavior toward Germany in the 1930s and World War II, and the American and European responses to the Soviet threat, including the NATO alliance, and the "long peace" of the post-1945 era.     

East Asia in a unipolar international order and Europe’s role in the region

This article attempts to explore the post-Cold War international system in which regional orders intermingle their influence. It pays special attention to regional conflicts in East Asia in the new era and what roles global powers could play to maintain regional stability. I will first examine the characteristics of the new global order after the end of the bipolarity. I will then focus on American foreign policy in the new international system in the context of its dealing with major global events that have strategic implications for its relations with other major global powers. As to discussions of regional orders, this article focuses on East Asia, where conflicts between states have not evaporated despite the relaxation of the global Cold War confrontation. What makes this area special is the involvements of many great powers and less-powerful nations that could somehow easily manipulate the seniors into the conflicts to their favour. While the regional order in East Asia is being shaped by the post- Cold War international order, the regions peace and conflicts will in turn significantly influence global order. Finally, I will argue that dealing with problems in East Asia should acquire involvements of powers that would give necessary momentum to the existing participants to solve conflicts by the means of multilateralism. The European Union (EU) is often forgotten for its role in contributing to world order, and the EU should be taken seriously by the powers in East Asia as a possible player in maintaining the regional peace. I conclude that both global and regional security depend on continuing US unipolarity, strengthened by the co-operation of the EU in the form of multilateralism. By the same token, US unilateralism without a EU counter-balancing it, only invites potential challengers, such as China, to threaten the USs preponderant position, thereby destabilising world peace.This article was supported by a research project (NSC-P3-2414-H-004-018) of the National Science Council, Taiwan, which is gratefully acknowledged.     

Explaining the European Parliament’s gains in the EU Constitution

The Constitutional Treaty, like each set of reforms since the Single European Act, would constitute another incremental increase in the European Parliament’s powers. But the Parliament did not get everything it wanted. What we do in this paper is investigate why the European Parliament tends to ‘win’ in some areas but not in others. We consider five possible explanations and test these theories by looking at the issues the Parliament promoted in the constitutional negotiations and the factors that determined whether the Parliament was successful or not in a particular area. We find that the Parliament gains power in areas where the governments delegate new powers to the EU and are uncertain about the consequences of this delegation. We also find that public support for the Parliament played a role in the extension of the Parliament’s powers in the Constitution.

蒙古国“多支点”外交战略与大国关系

前苏联解体和冷战结束后 ,地处中俄之间的蒙古国放弃了长期奉行的“一边倒”外交政策 ,制定了均衡发展与中俄两大邻国关系。同时 ,发展与美日等西方大国关系以及立足亚太地区的“多支点”外交战略。目前 ,蒙古国与南北两个邻国建立了蒙中睦邻互信伙伴关系和蒙俄睦邻传统伙伴关系 ,与美国发展战略伙伴关系 ,与日本确立了综合性伙伴关系。蒙古积极发展与大国的均衡关系 ,其意义在于 ,保障国家的独立、安全和未来发展 ,扩大自身活动空间 ,提高其国际地位 ,而且利用与大国的均势平衡使其相互牵制 ,以便从中获取更多利益。     

第二次世界大战结束前日俄、日苏关系的特点

第二次世界大战前的日俄、日苏关系是影响东亚地区国际关系格局的重要双边关系。在日本明治维新以前日俄关系具有西方殖民列强与亚洲闭关锁国的封建国家之间关系的特点，总体态势是“俄攻日守”。明治维新到十月革命前的日俄关系具有老牌的殖民主义列强与新兴殖民主义列强之间关系的特点，日俄在东亚既有争夺，又有合作，日本逐渐占了上风。十月革命后日苏关系既有社会主义国家和帝国主义国家之间的关系、邻国关系的特点，又有较为浓厚的欧洲国家和亚洲国家之间关系的特点。这时期，两国之间始终未能建立真正的信赖关系，经历了“日攻苏守”到“苏攻日守”的转变过程。     

南亚地区战略态势出现明显变化

南亚多数国家由于国内存在深刻的政治与社会矛盾，不得不实行“联盟政治”政府；在国际金融海啸的冲击下，南亚各国经济遭受严重危害；区域大国军备升级正在进行；暴力恐怖肆虐，各国安全形势持     

Strategic Balance in the Asia-Pacific Region

The authors analyze events in the Asia-Pacific region since the end of the Cold War and then draw three conclusions about the strategic balance of "one superpower, multiple major powers" in this region. First, compared with a stable superpower, the U.S., current multiple powers-China, Japan,Russia, ASEAN, India and Australia-are more dynamic.Second, two kinds of forces maintain order-a combination of national strength and non-national strength. On one hand, there are four different models which could ensure Asia-Pacific order in the future the U.S. model of hegemony, China's model of a harmonious Asia-Pacific region, ASEAN's model of regional cooperation, and the model of non-states actors. On the other hand, four different structures-security, production, finance and knowledge-are closely linked in this area. Third,globalization of the market economy brings dynamic and diverse development. The authors believe that China's"Harmonious Asia-Pacific" model is the best choice for the Asia-Pacific strategic pattern of "One superpower, multiple major powers."     

Global Governance Reform

President Barack Obama has trumpeted a ＂new era of engagement＂ for the United States. The central components of his strategy include a world order characterized by peaceful accommodation between established and rising powers; the collective management of transnational problems; and the overhaul of international institutions to reflect these shifting power dynamics and the new global agenda. Placing less emphasis than his predecessor on the pursuit of American primacy, Obama envisions--indeed, insists-that other global powers assume new responsibilities. Notwithstanding its multilateral instincts, though, the Obama administration is limited in its practical ability to promote and embrace sweeping reforms to global governance. Therefore, rather than casting its lot entirely with universal organizations like the United Nations, the United States will adopt a pragmatic approach to international cooperation that combines formal institutions with more flexible partnerships to achieve US national interests. The balance sheet for Obama＇s first year in office underscores both the opportunities for and the constraints on global governance reform in the current geopolitical environment.