“金砖四国”合作的机遇与挑战

自“金砖四国”概念提出以后，国际学术界就充满了关于它们合作与竞争问题的争论。有学者认为在全球化背景下，“金砖四国”合作意义不大；也有学者认为，“金砖四国”之间的政治体制和经济结构差别较大，合作比较困难，是一个“伪学术概念”；另有学者认为“金砖四国”是全球经济新的增长点，是世界政治发展与稳定的新的支柱力量，应该加强合作。尽管充满争论，     

美日印澳“四边对话”与亚太地区秩序的重构

2017年以来,美日印澳"四边对话"重新活跃。"四边对话"以"印太"为合作地域,以推进海上安全合作与加强基础设施建设为主要合作内容,旨在通过四国间的协调行动,应对地区形势的显著变化,构建与维护符合自身利益的地区秩序。"四边对话"的重新活跃反映了各国围绕地区秩序在外交、经济与安全领域展开合纵连横与力量博弈的新动向。中国既要警惕其战略意图,同时秉承合作、包容和互利共赢的理念,寻求与拓展各地区机制间的对话、对接,共同维护本地区的稳定与发展。     

解析“日美澳印”战略合作的局限性

近几年来,日美澳印四国战略互动日趋频繁、战略合作日益加强,成为牵引亚太格局变动的重要力量。特别是日本,以更加积极、主动的姿态,不遗余力地推进四国战略合作。该战略合作是中国崛起背景下,日美澳印重塑亚太格局,攫取权益的平台和路径,并且呈不断增强的发展态势。但是,该战略合作也面临着局限性和困境。战略合作框架的不完善、大国因素的影响、四国对中国崛起认知的不同、应对中国在四国对外战略中位置的不同等因素制约着"日美澳印"战略合作的进程。     

后金融危机时期上合组织框架内多边能源合作现状及前景

上合组织框架内成员既有能源出口国又有能源进口国还有能源途经国,构成了完整的能源生产和消费的互动版图。上合组织框架内既有大量的双边能源合作,多边能源合作也有了一定的实践积累。2011年9月23日,在西安欧亚国家能源部长会议上中国、吉尔吉斯斯坦、俄罗斯、塔吉克斯坦四国共同通过了旨在推动上合组织能源俱乐部启动的《西安倡议》,表明上合组织框架内多边能源合作机制有了重大突破。本文拟对后金融危机时代上合组织框架内多边能源合作的现状和发展趋势作一描述,揭示金融危机在其中所起的作用。     

“日美澳印”战略合作:构想、路径及态度分析

自"日美澳印"战略合作构想提出以来,四国战略互动日趋频繁、战略合作日益加强,成为牵引亚太安全格局变动的重要力量。尽管以遏制中国为共同目标、追求本国利益最大化的日美澳印四国,正以显性和隐性路径不断加强战略合作。但是,四国对该战略合作的态度不同,也影响着该战略合作的进程。中国应抓住有利时机,破解周边安全困境。     

国际机制理论与东北亚能源外交

在东北亚地区,由于中国、日本、韩国等能源消费大国能源消费的日益增长、俄罗斯作为能源大国的异军突起以及东北亚内部因能源而起的各种争端,能源外交成为东北亚外交中的重点和热点。开展东北亚能源外交的目的是通过政策协调构建一个多边能源合作机制,在东北亚地区不存在霸权国家提供合作机制的背景下,可以考虑运用国际机制理论,通过能源外交特别是多边能源外交构建本地区多边能源合作机制,并充分发挥能源外交的"外溢"功能,借机推进东北亚整体合作的发展。     

孟中印缅地区经济合作与经济走廊建设构想

孟中印缅经济合作在1999年发起的"孟中印缅地区合作论坛"的推动下取得了较快的进展。进入新世纪以来,四国在贸易、投资、互联互通合作,以及人文交流方面取得了明显的成效。孟中印缅经济走廊是连接中印两大市场的桥梁,应从建设交通能源走廊、商贸物流走廊、产业合作走廊、人文交流走廊等方面推动建设。经济走廊的建设给孟中印缅地区的合作与发展带来了前所未有的机遇和前景。     

中国能源外交历史与新时代特征

新中国成立70年来,能源外交已成为中国整体外交的重要组成部分。根据政策内容的不同,可将1949—2012年的能源外交划分为阵营外交、产业"走出去"、开拓石油进口来源、推动全面合作四个阶段。党的十八大后,中国能源外交开创引领能源革命进入新时代,呈现诸多新特点,包括以"四个革命、一个合作"战略为指引、与油气出口国构建能源命运共同体、促进清洁能源发展、推动"一带一路"产能合作和加强全球能源治理。回顾历史,中国能源外交形成一系列优良传统和鲜明特色。面对复杂局势,中国能源外交应积极谋划全球范围内高效的、可承担的海外利益保护体系,加强对外合作机制建设,系统筹划推进全球能源革命战略,打造能源大外交格局。     

论中国与东盟四国的产业结构及贸易关系

如何判断中国与东盟尤其东盟四国的经济贸易关系 ,在国内外学术界尚有争议。本文认为 ,中国与东盟四国在国际市场上虽然存在一定程度的竞争 ,但是互补与合作却是二者之间经济贸易关系的主流和发展趋势。为了减少相互间的竞争和摩擦 ,加强经济贸易合作 ,中国有必要对自身的产业结构进行适度的调整。     

从战略的高度看东亚合作与中日安全关系

冷战后,东亚地区各国在安全保障与经济合作以及非传统安全等问题上,形成了相互竞争与相互合作的新格局。中日之间在安全保障以及能源环境等问题上的矛盾与合作关系,集中反映了本地区安全问题的复杂性和紧迫性。如何通过加强多国间的政治对话解决区域内的政治与安全问题,通过共同开发与合作,有效地发挥各国在资金、技术和资源方面的互补性,逐步形成有向心力、平等合作、互补互利的地区安全与经济合作机制,是构筑合作与共生的东亚国际政治经济新秩序的关键所在。     

“印太战略”:以美印日澳的战略逻辑、利益与策略选择为分析视角

"印太战略"是美国均势+有限遏制+规制+话语诋毁的混合型战略。它意在前沿、中间地带与后方的三层构建不对称的对华遏制性力量,突破中美双边、单区域战略竞争的狭窄战略空间;在多地域与多维度孤立中国,拉拢更多国家在产业价值链、数字经济等层面与中国切割;制订基础建设投资透明化的新标准,嵌入有利于美国利益的规制;通过国际法、舆论等软性手段抹黑中国的"一带一路"与海权发展。虽然共同逻辑都是制衡中国崛起,但日澳印在策略上强调非对抗性。其中避免成为中国优先反制是日本重要的策略目标;印度在拉达克边界冲突后尚没有形成一个完全倒向美国的战略,因为这必定使其背上沉重的战略包袱,成为美国的附庸;澳大利亚作为地缘政治影响有限的中等国家,在美国反华行动中冲在最前列已使其利益严重受损。而"印太战略"与东盟所推动的包容性、合作安全理念也有着本质的区别,东盟要在"印太地区"发挥中心领导作用,定位"印太"为对话与合作区域。所以由于东盟的抵制、印日澳的消极政策,这个战略形成的攻势将很难保持可持续性,其长期前景并不看好。     

Demographics, Religion, and the Future of Europe

Immigration and changing demographic trends mean that Europe will in the very near future inevitably be transformed, culturally and politically. As in the Cold War, it again represents a critical theater for rivalry, but this time it is between Christianity, Islam, and secularism. European nations will either be the sites of religious conflict and violence that sets Muslim minorities against secular states and Muslim communities against Christian neighbors, or it could become the birthplace of a liberalized and modernized Islam that could in turn transform the religion worldwide. We urgently need to understand the developing contours of European religious beliefs and practices, and not just as they apply to Muslims, for the outcome of the rivalry there will have profound implications for the United States.     

Terrorism,Counterterrorism, and the Rule of Law

While fighting insurgency, both state and non-state groups depend on the local population for valuable resources such as food, intelligence, and security. By using a repertoire of subsistence coping mechanisms available to households in the context of the local political economy as an indicator of grievances and mechanisms of interactions between local households and the state and insurgents, district level data from Nepal on Maoist conflict is used to test hypotheses regarding state and insurgent violence. The analysis confirms that the state was more likely to kill people in a district where the number of households that borrowed to cope with subsistence was high. The Maoists were more likely to kill in a district with a higher number of subsistence sufficient households.     

Sir Eric Phipps, the British Government, and the Appeasement of Germany, 1933-1937

This article argues that Sir Eric Phipps' reputation as an “anti-appeaser” of Germany during his Berlin embassy 1933-1937 is not accurate. While Phipps was not in favor of placating Hitler by making territorial concessions, he had much in common with those who had sought a rapprochement with Germany in the 1920s through a policy of inclusion and reconciliation. Particular importance is placed on Phipps' attitude towards the League of Nations, with detailed consideration also being accorded to his relationship with the British Foreign Secretaries and Foreign Office officials of the period, as well as his views on the Entente Cordiale.     

Privacy,the news media,and the courts

Abstract

This article is concerned with the conflict between the news media's position that the public has a ‘'right to know'’ under the free press provision of the First Amendment and the right to privacy under the tort law. The constitutional issue is raised whenever the media print or broadcast accurate, but often embarrassing, facts about a person, or whenever personal information is publicized which an individual prefers not to share with the general public.

In unwanted publicity and public disclosure cases, the courts have accorded greater weight to the defendant defenses of consent, news‐worthiness, and media privilege than to the plaintiff's invasion of privacy claim. To remedy this inequity, a two‐tier judicial model is proposed that would have courts balance the two competing interests in such a manner as to enhance individual privacy without diminishing the informational function of the news media.     

Sir Eric Phipps,the British Government,and the Appeasement of Germany, 1933–1937

This article argues that Sir Eric Phipps’ reputation as an “anti-appeaser” of Germany during his Berlin embassy 1933–1937 is not accurate. While Phipps was not in favor of placating Hitler by making territorial concessions, he had much in common with those who had sought a rapprochement with Germany in the 1920s through a policy of inclusion and reconciliation. Particular importance is placed on Phipps’ attitude towards the League of Nations, with detailed consideration also being accorded to his relationship with the British Foreign Secretaries and Foreign Office officials of the period, as well as his views on the Entente Cordiale.     

Satisfaction,Alternatives, Investments,and the Microfoundations of Audience Cost Models

In this paper, we suggest that the Investment Model of Commitment, developed in social psychology, offers a solution to an important microfoundational issue in audience cost theory. Audience cost models are useful for thinking about the foreign policy behaviors of democratic and nondemocratic states. However, they often assume that citizens reliably penalize leaders who break their foreign policy promises even though the empirical record suggests this is not always the case. We argue that public commitment to foreign policy assets and relationships is a precondition for the application of audience costs. Using the UN and NATO as case studies, we hypothesize that the commitments people develop to international organizations emerge as a function of (1) their satisfaction with the performance of the organization, (2) the investments in those organizations, and (3) an assessment of the alternatives to these associations. Correlational and experimental tests of the model confirm that the strongest individual-level commitments arise when people are highly satisfied with the performance of specific institutions, believe that much has been invested in support of them, and perceive that the alternatives to particular institutions are poor. Implications for the development of audience cost theory are discussed.     

Hegemonic order, September 11, and the consequences of the Bush revolution

The striking feature of contemporary world politics continuesto be the disproportionate power position of the United States.U.S. officials consider stability in East Asia to be of vitalimportance, and they have adopted a hegemonic strategy to promoteregional order and serve U.S. interests. U.S. officials arelikely to find the management and completion of hegemony moreproblematic in the years ahead. U.S. power, particularly military,will remain unchallenged. But changes in U.S. foreign policyafter September 11, developments in the world economy, and developmentsin East Asia suggest that the exercise of U.S. power and U.S.relations with states in this all-important region will becomeincreasingly complex and will demand more creative diplomaticefforts.