美国国家反恐战略的分析框架与历史演进

美国全球反恐行动已持续近十八年，理解当下特朗普政府的反恐战略和未来走向离不开对美国反恐战略历史演进的梳理，而对三届政府反恐战略的比较则需基于统一的分析框架。美国国家反恐战略包括四个基本组成部分：对恐怖主义的威胁认知、指导反恐的基本原则、预设的战略目标和实施的政策手段。对比分析小布什政府、奥巴马政府与特朗普政府的反恐战略，特朗普政府延续了上一任政府持续收缩的全球反恐态势，具体表现为对恐怖主义的威胁认知更趋符合客观现实，“美国优先”的指导原则凸显了利己和激进的态度，预设的战略目标则相对具体和务实。在政策手段上，特朗普政府缩减反恐武力规模、减少外交关注和发展投入，但通过加大军事打击力度以向外界传达其反恐的强硬态度。以“美国优先”为原则的反恐收缩战略进一步表现出美国对全球反恐行动感到疲乏且失去信心，并以此为由试图摆脱原有约束美国对外行为的一系列因素。特朗普政府的反恐战略并不能使美国彻底摆脱全球反恐的尴尬境地，并将对全球反恐形势和国家间关系产生重要影响。     

"越反越恐":反恐理念和方式的缺失

本文关注"越反越恐"这一反恐怖斗争中的特殊现象,在对其现状分析的基础上,对消除恐怖主义的理念和方式进行了探讨,旨在论证回答:恐怖主义为什么"越反越恐"?到底是反恐理念还是反恐方式导致了"越反越恐"?改变"越反越恐"的现实选项是什么?     

九一一事件以来美国反恐过程中的主导性隐喻及其后果

九一一事件后,国际反恐行动似乎已陷入"越反越恐"的怪圈,这与人们对恐怖主义的"越描越恐"密切相关,而隐喻的存在及广泛使用是导致"越描越恐"的重要原因。在恐怖主义的治理中,作为必不可少的思维方式,涉恐隐喻具有启发性,但也因其随意性、凸显与隐藏的特征,限制了人们关于恐怖主义的思想和行为。在美国涉恐的政治、媒体和学术话语中,"恐怖主义是战争""恐怖主义是野蛮的东西""恐怖主义是疾病"和"恐怖主义是不受欢迎的植物"是占主导地位的隐喻。这些隐喻深植于历史、人们的恐惧、社会系统和舆论中,很大程度上代表了人们对恐怖主义的正统看法。进行隐喻分析,使用多种隐喻,一定程度上能缓解隐喻陷阱,但仍不能消除它。因此,在恐怖主义治理的过程中,坚持"犯罪"隐喻为主导、灵活使用多种措施、重建受损的政治秩序、减少对无辜平民的伤害和对穆斯林的歧视尤为重要。     

联合国反恐委员会治理模式评估

反恐委员会是九一一事件后联合国治理恐怖主义的重要机构。反恐委员会的目标是 提升全球范围内的反恐立法和执法水平。由此，反恐委员会形成了自己的治理模式。该模式具有复 合式、多中心、多层级和增能式治理的特点。在某种意义上讲，它体现了全球治理。不过，反恐委员 会的治理规制建基于西方占优势的现存规制。从本质上看，反恐委员会的治理模式是一种由西方 国家主导，为西方利益服务的自上而下的新自由主义治理模式。它不能根除恐怖主义并达到善治。     

反恐怖主义与我国东北地区城市安全

城市在一定的空间内汇聚了大量的人流、物流、资金流和信息流,城市这种高度的聚集性和防范恐怖袭击的脆弱性会使其成为恐怖分子的重要打击目标。受地缘等因素的影响,我国东北地区城市面临着国际恐怖主义和国内恐怖主义的潜在双重威胁,为了保护人民的生命财产安全,我们必须未雨绸缪,在借鉴西方城市反恐经验的基础上构筑我国东北地区城市的反恐防控体系。     

中亚反恐法律及其评析

恐怖主义是引起当今国际社会普遍关注的问题之一。中亚地区因其特殊的地缘特点和人文环境已成为恐怖主义犯罪行为猖獗的地区。为治理这些犯罪行为,保障中亚的稳定与安全,中亚国家在国内反恐法律中规定了恐怖主义犯罪及其反恐程序的同时,把反恐国际公约转化为国内法律,从法律上为反恐斗争打下了坚实的基础。中亚国家的反恐法律有值得我国借鉴的地方。     

中亚反恐法律及其评析

恐怖主义是引起当今国际社会普遍关注的问题之一。中亚地区因其特殊的地缘特点和人文环境已成为恐怖主义犯罪行为猖獗的地区。为治理这些犯罪行为,保障中亚的稳定与安全,中亚国家在国内反恐法律中规定了恐怖主义犯罪及其反恐程序的同时,把反恐国际公约转化为国内法律,从法律上为反恐斗争打下了坚实的基础。中亚国家的反恐法律有值得我国借鉴的地方。     

恐怖主义的新发展及对中国的影响

进入新世纪以来,国际恐怖主义经过三轮扩散,在中亚、南亚北部、西亚和北非以及萨赫勒地区的广大地域形成了新的"动荡弧"。在此"动荡弧"上,国际恐怖主义既各自为阵又彼此相连,形成了四大分中心的辐射区。国际恐怖主义和本土恐怖主义彼此勾结、相互借助、合流共存的共生关系是当前恐怖主义最突出的特点,也是国际恐怖主义打而不死、泛滥成灾的重要原因。恐怖主义的扩散不仅对全球反恐斗争造成了巨大挑战,而且对中国"一带一路"倡议、海外经济利益、边疆安全和内地稳定以及中国同周边国家关系的发展构成了重大威胁。鉴于此,中国应在全球、地区、国家间以及国内四个层面上促进反恐合作,应对恐怖主义的挑战,保护国家安全和利益。     

美国社会对反恐政策认识的变化及其原因

正在经历反恐战争的美国人继续在忧虑中前行。“9·11”事件五年多来，反恐毫无疑问成为美国国家政治生活的中心。但时至今日，恐怖主义非但没有被有效遏制，反而呈现出“越反越恐”的态势。实际上，反恐战争究竟何去何从一直是美国政界、学者、民众争论的焦点，伊拉克乱局更让布什政府内外交困，美国国内逐步开始反思反恐历程，审视现实。伴随着伊拉克局势呈现“内战化”和美国在伊拉克进退维谷的窘境，要求布什政府重新调整反恐政策的呼声越来越强烈。美国的反恐政策遭遇到前所未有的挑战。     

论恐怖主义的社会解构

作为一种极端的解构力量，恐怖主义对于国际秩序的威胁和损害不仅在于通过制造恶性事件以破坏国际社会的安全稳定，更在于借助销蚀主流价值而削弱国际秩序的观念基础。因此，国际社会有必要将评估和应对恐怖主义的社会解构纳入反恐治理的基本范畴。其中，以“伊斯兰国”组织为代表的恐怖主义力量进行社会解构的行为策略，可以分为以动摇当代领土政治、颠覆主流生命伦理和创设替代政治秩序为主要构成的重释再造，以动员恐怖袭击、滋长恐怖气氛和催生仇恨敌对为主要构成的“木马”植入，以“黑色经济”“黑色宣传”和“黑色技术”为主要构成的反向利用。目前，国际社会的反恐路径注重结合预防恐怖主义的内向防御逻辑与打击恐怖主义的外向进攻逻辑。沿着这一思路，国际社会可以综合采取加强反恐实践中的逆向战略、修正反恐叙事中的敌意话语和联通反恐治理中的不同系统等多种举措以应对恐怖主义的社会解构。     

The Development of EU-Russian Relations

The EU＇s strategy for Russia since the end of the cold war has to a large extent failed, and the direct consequences are the currently deadlocked EU-Russia relationship. There are three reasons for this： the EU and Russia＇s respective strength and status relative to each other have been changing since the beginning of this century; the EU＇s strategy towards Russia has been more fragmenting in recently years; and the American factor. The EU-Russia relations could continue to be in poor shape in the years to come, and it is very likely sometimes even further worsening. But the two sides would refrain from extreme measures and prevent their relations from sliding into real cold war.     

Young American China Watchers＇ Views on China

In this paper, the author has made a thorough study over the new generation of American China Watchers. Most of the pages are devoted to a detailed comparison between the old generation and the young generation of American China Watchers regarding to their background, education, and views over China. At the end of the paper, the author also gives some policy suggestions for both the Chinese and U.S. government based on the findings in this study.     

The Balance Between Coercion and Accommodation

1. Introduction
On the morning of April 1st, 2001, a U.S. EP-3 surveillance aircraft was conducting an intelligence flight along the Chinese territorial border in the airspace south-east of China＇s Hainan Island. Two Chinese fighter jets intercepted the spy plane and followed its flight, as is considered ordinary international practice. For reasons unknown, the EP-3 airplane made a sudden maneuver and crashed into one of the Chinese planes. The Chinese plane dropped into the sea, the pilot missing. The U.S. spy plane was also severely damaged. It intruded into Chinese territorial space and landed on Hainan Island without official permission from the Chinese side. After landing, the spy plane and 24 crew on board were detained by the Chinese authorities. This air collision episode was the first of its kind in the China-U.S. relations and an urgent diplomatic crisis ensued.     

中国需要构建怎样的周边(英文)

正The new central leadership has highlighted the strategic importance of better relations with neighboring countries and the construction of a solid foundation for China’s neighborhood strategy so as to create favorable conditions for Chinese development.1China is strengthening top-level strategy in foreign relations,focusing on global-level relations and staying committed to relations     

Learning from Others and Starting Built-to-last Companies

正Ruicheng Group was founded in Qiqihar,a city located in one of the three major ‘Chernozem belts’ in the world,the fertile Songnen Plain,and one known as the ‘home of red-crowned cranes’ Over the years,our business developed from being only one supermarket in the beginning to a corporate group operating in multiple sectors,from supermarket chain and real estate to property management and preschool education.     

中巴关系的发展及其认识误区（英文）

China and Brazil established a strategic partnership in 1993. The bilateral ties have seen rapid development in almost all areas. However, there are eight myths surrounding the China-Brazil relations. These myths are the result of a lack of mutual understanding as well as the misconceptions result misconceptions of the western observers and media. These misunderstandings have of have jeopardized images of the China-Brazil relations and also hindered further development of their bilateral relationship.     

中国的“主场外交”:机遇、挑战与任务（英文）

The successful hosting of the CICA summit has drawn great attention The attention to China's "host diplomacy". Analyzing new features of China's "host to "host diplomacy" during this new period, this paper will look at the opportunities and challenges facing China's "host diplomacy" and discuss the problems that China should address in order to do a better job in this regard and bring its "host diplomatic advantages" into full play.     

亚洲整体性崛起及其效应(英文)

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the overall rise of the Asian geographic plate has been particularly prominently. The overall rise of Asia reflects the improvement of a large number of developing countries in Asia. The long-occupied aggressive status of the United States and Europe is weakening, and the overall rise of Asia appears more highlighted, and its impact upon the world seems more intense.     

CAFIU Convenes the 11~(th) Council Meeting in Beijing

正On the morning of April 2,2014,CAFIU held the 11th Executive Council Meeting in Beijing.Present at the Meeting were Member of the Politburo of the 17th CPC Central Committee and Vice-Chairman of the 11th CPPCC National Committee Mr.Wang Gang,ViceChairman of the 11th NPC Standing Committee and President of CAFIU Mr.Zhou Tienong,ViceChairpersons of the NPC Standing Committee Mme     

Speech by Honorary President Zhou Tienong at the 11~(th) Executive Council Meeting of CAFIU (Excerpt)

正I am very pleased to attend the 11th Executive Council Meeting of CAFIU,and would like to express my hearty congratulations to President Yan Junqi,the new leadership and the newly-elected Executive Council.I also want to express my sincere thanks for choosing me to be the Honorary President of CAFIU!