The Bush Administration and the Nuclear Challenges by North Korea

When in October 2002 the US administration confronted the North Koreans with intelligence that the latter had a program to enrich uranium, another nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula was triggered. It quickly developed into a plutonium crisis because the DPRK then started to “defrost” the nuclear facilities that had been frozen by the Agreed Framework and to revive its nuclear weapons program. North Korea told the world that it was building up a nuclear deterrent force. Though the US administration toyed with the idea of working towards a collapse of the DPRK, it ultimately decided to pursue diplomacy. The two Koreas and the four great Pacific powers got involved in the negotiations. The administration insisted on a complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantling of the North Korean nuclear programs. The DPRK was reluctant to proceed with the talks, since it felt that its basic security interests were being disregarded. Three rounds of six-party talks held in Beijing did not surpass the stage of prenegotiations. At the end of 2004, the prospects for the talks were gloomy. ¹ 1. If no particular sources are mentioned, the facts of the case are based on reports of the printed editions of the International Herald Tribune, The New York Times and The Wall-Street Journal and the on-line editions of the Los Angeles Times The Washington Post The Korea Herald The Korea Times, The People’s Korea and the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)      

朝鲜核试爆与重开六方会谈

朝鲜核试爆是美朝新一轮较量的产物。朝鲜核危机的发展仍取决于美朝关系能否发生变化。重开六方会谈是相关各方的共同愿望,但取得实质性进展的可能很小。朝鲜将实际成为“拥核”国家,朝核危机长期化的可能性越来越大。六方会谈并不因为朝鲜核试爆而减弱其历史作用,它依然是解决朝核问题的最佳形式,也是各方为应对和消除朝鲜“拥核”而进行对话、沟通、协商的理想平台,并有可能进而成为实现朝鲜半岛和平机制和东北亚安全合作的合理载体。     

The U. S. Policy toward DPRK: Opportunities and Constraints

布什政府上台以来,始终未能阻止朝鲜拥核步伐.朝核试后,美对朝政策有了新的调整,六方会谈得以复会.但美朝双方受各自国家利益和政策目标的限制,在朝鲜半岛无核化问题上的尖锐分歧难以解决,朝核危机仍存在再度升级的可能.     

Putin's foreign policy toward North Korea

Since coming to office in 2000, President of the Russian Federation,Vladimir Putin, has taken a pragmatic and calculating approachto the conduct of foreign policy in order to promote Russia'sgeopolitical and economic interests. For him, a higher profileon Korean issues has been an opportunity to show that Moscowcan influence Pyongyang and play a meaningful role in greatpower diplomacy on the Korean peninsula. As a result of activediplomacy toward North Korea, the two former communist alliesput a period to the deteriorating relations in the 1990s; afterthe September 11 terrorists attack and the launch of the waron terrorism Moscow's influence over Pyongyang reached its peak.The beginning of the North Korean nuclear crisis in October2002, however, relegated Moscow to a marginalized position inthe Korean issue. This paper examines how Putin's pragmaticdiplomacy was put into effect in Russia's foreign policy towardNorth Korea and how circumstances on the Korean peninsula haveaffected Russia–DPRK bilateral relations. An analysisof these factors shows why Russia's role in the ongoing Six-Partyprocess has become insignificant. At the present time, it iscertainly plausible that Russia will not activate diplomaticefforts to solve the North Korean nuclear crisis and will besatisfied with merely securing a seat at the multilateral talksin Northeast Asia.     

A Fragile Relationship: The United States and the Republic Of Korea

As South Korea became economically and militarily stronger and developed democratic institutions, the country was in a position to assume more responsibilities in its partnership with the United States. The necessary changes could be achieved only with difficulties. The efforts of the US administration to stop the nuclear proliferation by North Korea and South Korea's attempts to develop a policy of engagement towards the DPRK resulted in friction between the allies. The dissonance was amplified by efforts of the Rho Moo Hyun government to pursue a foreign policy that was less dependent upon the United States. The change of atmosphere was underlined by anti-American outbursts in South Korea. A new effort to strengthen the partnership is, however, reasonable. For South Korea the United States is still the indispensable ally as long as an attack by North Korea that probably has nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. For the United States this alliance contributes to maintain America's paramount influence in East Asia. If both countries agree with this rationale they should take steps to accept basic assumptions and policies of the other side. To find a common position towards the nuclear efforts of North Korea is crucial. Even if both sides try to harmonize their policies, success is not guaranteed. Korean nationalism and American dynamics combined with occasional high-handedness are difficult obstacles.     

A Fragile Relationship: The United States and the Republic Of Korea

As South Korea became economically and militarily stronger and developed democratic institutions, the country was in a position to assume more responsibilities in its partnership with the United States. The necessary changes could be achieved only with difficulties. The efforts of the US administration to stop the nuclear proliferation by North Korea and South Korea's attempts to develop a policy of engagement towards the DPRK resulted in friction between the allies. The dissonance was amplified by efforts of the Rho Moo Hyun government to pursue a foreign policy that was less dependent upon the United States. The change of atmosphere was underlined by anti-American outbursts in South Korea. A new effort to strengthen the partnership is, however, reasonable. For South Korea the United States is still the indispensable ally as long as an attack by North Korea that probably has nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. For the United States this alliance contributes to maintain America's paramount influence in East Asia. If both countries agree with this rationale they should take steps to accept basic assumptions and policies of the other side. To find a common position towards the nuclear efforts of North Korea is crucial. Even if both sides try to harmonize their policies, success is not guaranteed. Korean nationalism and American dynamics combined with occasional high-handedness are difficult obstacles.     

特朗普政府对朝核问题的危机管理及前景研判

2017年的朝核危机实质上是特朗普政府实施边缘政策而带来的一场危机,即,通过极限施压迫使朝鲜在战争和让步之间做出选择,以推动半岛无核化进程。然而,特朗普政府对朝核问题的危机管理因朝鲜的外交对冲、美国国内政治因素的制约以及国际合作的缺失使双方谈判陷入僵局,美国国内甚至出现是否会默认朝鲜有核的争论。若要真正推动朝鲜半岛无核化取得实质性进展,特朗普政府的现实方案仍是设定有限目标,并由联合国安理会制定可逆条款,约束美朝不信守承诺的行为,以国际社会的担保减少美朝互信缺失带来的消极影响,加快推进半岛无核化的和平进程。     

六方会谈与东北亚安全合作机制

朝核危机的爆发使得构建东北亚安全机制再次成为各国关注的课题。为了解决朝核危机,相关各国先后举行了六轮六方会谈。六方会谈取得了一些进展,也推动了东北亚安全机制的建设,但是作为一个问题机制而存在的六方会谈,不仅受限于朝鲜半岛局势的发展,还深深受限于中美关系的发展和中日之间的结构性矛盾。因此,即使最终能够成功地解决朝核问题,东北亚安全合作机制的建立还将有待于进一步努力。     

朝核问题与东北亚安全合作框架前景

朝核问题已呈现长期化趋势 ,为在建立东北亚安全合作新框架方面抢得先机 ,美、日、韩等国相应做出政策调整。美国加大了“谈”、“压”的力度 ,但尚未将朝鲜作为战略打击的主要对象。日本对朝政策向右摇摆 ,并寻求在建立东北亚多边安全框架方面发挥独自影响。韩国努力增加美韩联盟的平等色彩 ,谋求在解决朝核问题中发挥主导性作用。抓住朝核问题 ,推动建立东北亚“多极”主导多边安全合作机制 ,中国可以大有作为     

The US role in Korean democracy and security since cold war era

This paper traces the role that US played in the developmentof Korean democracy and maintaining peace and security in theKorean peninsula. First, it looks back into the US role in theKorean political transformation from 1950s through 1980s. Itexamines why the US introduced American style democracy in thedivided country and what was the role of the US in the criticaljunctures of regime changes and transformations. The UnitedStates had two contradictory objectives in South Korea: to buildup South Korea as ‘a showcase for democracy’ andas an anti-communist buffer state. The two objectives set ‘theAmerican boundary’ to South Korean democracy. The firstobjective acted upon as an enabling condition for incipientdemocracy, while the second acted upon as a confining conditionto development of democracy in South Korea. Second, it investigatesthe role that the US played in the outbreak of financial crisisin 1987 and in the ensuing comprehensive neoliberal restructuringof the economy by the Kim Dae Jung government after the crisis.Third, it analyzes three events that put US–Korean relationsunder stress since the inauguration of Bush administration:Anti-Americanism, perception gap on North Korea, and the newmilitary transformation initiative of US. Finally, it drawspolicy rationales for stronger Korea–US alliance in thefuture from the Korean perspective: Korea–US allianceas leverages against China and Japan, means of pursuing an effectiveengagement policy toward North Korea, a cornerstone to liftSouth Korea to a hub state in Northeast Asia, and geopoliticalbalancer and stabilizer in Northeast Asia after the unificationof Korea.     

Sino-U.S. Cooperation in North Korean Nuclear Issue

China and the United States have cooperated closely in resolving the second North Korean nuclear crisis.China and the United States have worked together with South Korea, Russia and Japan to prevent the North Korean nuclear issue from spiraling out of control, and they have also tried to make progress in the six-party talks. Despite differences over the issue, both sides are maintaining the momentum of cooperation with increasing mutual understanding and trust. The current U.S.-North Korea rapprochement has progressed quickly, adding a new factor in Sino-U.S. cooperation. Apart from bilateral contact with North Korea, the United States is insisting on a multilateral approach, continuing to persuade China to share responsibility for a nuclear-free Peninsula, and jointly advancing the process in the second phase set forth in the February 13 Agreement on Initial Actions. China's role,therefore, remains indispensable.     

2019年朝鲜半岛形势回顾

2019年,朝鲜半岛处于美朝无核化博弈和东北亚地区大国战略博弈之中。美国主动出击,在朝鲜半岛地区推行其"印太战略",中国和俄罗斯正面迎击,韩国谋求与美国"印太战略"对接,朝鲜半岛的战略博弈呈现新态势,缓和下的博弈成为一种新常态。朝鲜半岛紧张局势缓解,军事对抗强度降低,安全形势无巨变亦无升温。美国的对朝制裁施压、对韩约束限制政策为韩朝关系投下了阴影。韩朝关系有缓和,但也有波折:军事和解取得进展,但军事合作协议尚未完全履行;保持了对话合作的渠道,但合作交流止步不前。有关国家为促进朝鲜半岛无核化和建立朝鲜半岛永久和平机制付出了努力,无核化进程仍然处于"双暂停"阶段。半岛问题出现钝化迹象。     

韩国在六方会谈中的多重平衡外交

朝核六方会谈对韩国的国家利益利害关系重大,韩国的应对策略也最为复杂和微妙。韩国既要顾及短期安全利益与长远民族利益之间的平衡,又要弥合国内政治力量之间的政策分歧,并竭力避免其对北政策与对美政策之间出现零和局面,同时还需兼顾联盟政策及其东北亚地缘战略之间的平衡,因此六方会谈事实上成为韩国实施多重平衡外交的一个重要契机。目前来看,这种复杂的平衡外交方针基本是成功的,然而其最终政策效果尚待进一步观察。     

金刚山旅游特区的设立及其展望

1998年 11月 18日 ,正式开始了历史性的金刚山旅游。截止到 2 0 0 3年 3月 ,4年间共有 5 2 5 0 6 6名韩国国民到金刚山旅游 ,金刚山旅游业为南北交流做出了贡献。朝鲜于 2 0 0 2年 11月颁布了金刚山旅游地区法 ,把金刚山指定为经济特区。金刚山旅游业不是单纯的旅游事业 ,它是缓和朝鲜半岛紧张局面的象征 ,我们应把它看作是为创造统一环境、减少统一费用、消除朝鲜半岛危机、最终为统一做准备的一项战略性投资。为此 ,必须搞活金刚山旅游特区     

Crime and economic instability: the real security threat from North Korea and what to do about it

This essay examines the domestic and international causationof the socioeconomic transformation that has taken place inthe DPRK since the 1990s. In the process the essay demonstrateshow the DPRK socio-economy has become an enabling environmentfor crossborder illicit economic activity. The argument is thatthere is little evidence that the DPRK government fully comprehendsthe potential problems for its own society from the lack ofregulation of market transactions and therefore not much likelihoodthat it is currently able or willing to prevent spillover ofthe numerous grey areas of North Korean marketization into thesocio-economies of its neighbours. What is therefore neededis positive interaction by foreign economic interlocutors, includinggovernments and international institutions. A policy of 'intelligentintervention' that combines closely monitored but relativelysubstantial economic interaction integrally linked to a programmeof market institution-building in the DPRK, along with a policyof military deterrence, could best contribute to preventingthe growth of economic and political instability in NortheastAsia.     

朝鲜半岛安全问题及中国与有关各方的合作策略

自朝鲜核试验到最近的"天安"号事件,朝鲜半岛及东北亚安全形势发生重大变化。问题的解决涉及多方甚至整个国际社会。中国应妥善处理中美关系,加强中、日、韩三国间的互信、共识与合作,加强与俄罗斯及国际社会的沟通与合作。在坚决促朝弃核,推进半岛无核化的同时以经济外交为杠杆促朝融入国际社会,在寻求外交谈判解决半岛危机的同时,做好应对半岛可能出现的突发事件的准备。     

“2·29协议”签署后的朝美较量

朝美“2·29协议”的签署及随后朝鲜的卫星发射让世界大跌眼镜,其实,对于这样的结果美朝双方都是有预期的,双方在签约过程中获得了自己所需的政治资本。“2·29”协议后,美国在经济、军事、外交等多个领域对朝鲜进行了打压,朝鲜也不甘示弱,对美国一如既往地以硬碰硬,并将“拥核”进行到底。在可预见的时期内,双方的这种较量将随着朝鲜第三次核试验而更趋白热化,这将使六方会谈陷入窘境,但是美朝的战略利益迫使他们还会继续互递橄榄枝,不过在美国总统大选之前美国不会与朝鲜进行正式对话。     

Biting the Land that Feeds You: North Korea and the United States in the Cold War and Beyond

Throughout the Cold War, the United States struggled to understand the principles that underlay North Korean behavior in the international arena. In the post-Korean War years, American policymakers saw Pyongyang as simply a communist puppet, a servile pawn directed by Moscow and Peking. That framework was shattered when the Cold War ended but American officials still sought simplistic answers to explain DPRK behavior, usually concluding that their leaders were deranged, evil, and simply incomprehensible. However, newly released communist materials suggest that there is more than irrationality at work in Pyongyang. Instead, one can discern a basic pattern at the heart of DPRK policy, one that has internal developments at its core. Put simply, this interpretation suggests that North Korean behavior towards the West becomes more provocative when the nation is at its weakest in certain domestic areas, primarily economic development and political stability, and attributes this correlation to the dominant role of the ideology of juche (self-reliance) that virtually defines this society. Understanding this relationship between internal dynamics, ideological paradigms, and DPRK foreign relations would be a beneficial step in formulating policy towards North Korea; instead, however, American policymakers have clung to interpretations that, while easily comprehensible and politically appealing, have hindered their diplomatic efforts towards the nation since the 1950s.     

新一轮朝鲜核危机与日、韩、美3国协调体制

新一轮朝鲜半岛核危机正在挑战美国的反恐新战略。同时 ,朝鲜南北和谈、日朝平壤宣言 ,东北亚两大历史事件也冲击了美日、美韩同盟。在这历史性的转换中 ,日、韩、美 3国协调体制将从同盟向外交转换。构筑TCOG和KEDO的新协调体制 ,是这一转换的重要形式。     

Biting the Land that Feeds You: North Korea and the United States in the Cold War and Beyond

Throughout the Cold War, the United States struggled to understand the principles that underlay North Korean behavior in the international arena. In the post-Korean War years, American policymakers saw Pyongyang as simply a communist puppet, a servile pawn directed by Moscow and Peking. That framework was shattered when the Cold War ended but American officials still sought simplistic answers to explain DPRK behavior, usually concluding that their leaders were deranged, evil, and simply incomprehensible. However, newly released communist materials suggest that there is more than irrationality at work in Pyongyang. Instead, one can discern a basic pattern at the heart of DPRK policy, one that has internal developments at its core. Put simply, this interpretation suggests that North Korean behavior towards the West becomes more provocative when the nation is at its weakest in certain domestic areas, primarily economic development and political stability, and attributes this correlation to the dominant role of the ideology of juche (self-reliance) that virtually defines this society. Understanding this relationship between internal dynamics, ideological paradigms, and DPRK foreign relations would be a beneficial step in formulating policy towards North Korea; instead, however, American policymakers have clung to interpretations that, while easily comprehensible and politically appealing, have hindered their diplomatic efforts towards the nation since the 1950s.