什么样的“闹大”成功了?--基于40个案例的定性比较分析

社会中层出不穷的"闹大"是公共治理状况的一面"镜子",也是转型时期政策议程建构的重要路径。本文采用清晰集定性比较分析(csQCA),对2003-2019年发生的40个"闹大"案例进行比较研究。研究结果表明,上级(层)政府支持是"闹大"成功的必要条件。推动"闹大"成功的充分条件组合共有八种,可具体归纳为制度框架使用模式、集体施压模式、专家引导模式和暴力强推模式等四种解释模型。公民"闹大"成功是多个条件组合的结果,在核心条件发挥基础作用的前提下,适当的辅助条件更容易触发政策议程,推动问题解决。文章为公民"闹大"的行动逻辑提供了新的因果解释机制,也为理解形形色色的"闹大"现象提供了新的理论工具。     

The evolution of European legal integration

This article contributes to the development of theories on European integration by testing and exploring statistical models on the long-term development of legislative activity of the European Commission. Drawing on legal information gained from the European Union’s PreLex database and analyzing it with the help of statistical analyses, we map out growth patterns of EU law between 1976 and 2003. We construct time-series models and models based on non-linear regression. While the performance of models based on the traditional theoretical approaches, intergovernmentalism and neo-functionalism, is rather poor, the analysis suggests that nonlinear dynamic models might be an interesting avenue for future conceptualizations of the EU integration process. This article is based on a paper presented at the ECPR Standing Group on the European Union Second Pan-European Conference on EU Politics, “Implications of a Wider Europe: Politics, Institutions and Diversity”, 24–26 June 2004, Bologna, Italy. We would like to thank the seminar participants for useful comments.     

Theoretical and empirical specification of a model of informal labeling

Recently criminologists have begun to explore the importance of disaggregating frequency measures of self-reported delinquency into the separate decisions of initiation and continuation. Given that labeling makes predictions concerning continuation, the purpose of this paper is twofold. The first is to test the ability of an informal labeling model to predict the decision to continue delinquent behavior once it is initiated. The second purpose is to address the broader question of whether disaggregation matters. The findings support the idea that the informal labeling model is predictive of the decision to continue delinquent behavior. The findings also suggest that, at least for a measure of general delinquency, there are some differences to be found by choosing the appropriate sample and form of the dependent variable.     

Reducing lockup crowding with expedited initial processing of minor offenders

This article assesses the effects of one jurisdiction's attempt to control its lockup population through creation of a separate processing center designed to expedite initial processing of individuals charged with misdemeanors and minor felonies. In the new center, cases were screened and initial hearings held around-the-clock, seven days per week. “Before” and “after” samples of arrestees are compared on prosecutorial screening time, time to court, and time in custody. The results show significant reductions in case screening and length of time to initial court hearing. Individuals released on recognizance and those with no charges filed spent significantly less time in custody and saved considerable bed space for the jurisdiction. Individuals with bond set experienced no reductions in length of custody. Collateral consequences of the new facility included improved procedural justice, expanded detention capacity in the county, and an end to part of the federal litigation.     

Differentiating among racial/ethnic groups and its implications for understanding juvenile justice decision making

Both theory and research have been refined to gain a better understanding of when race and ethnicity matter in justice proceedings. In the present research, this line of inquiry was continued by differentiating among minority youth to assess the extent being African American, Native American, and Asian American influenced juvenile justice decision making and how these effects compared to one another and Whites. Utilizing an interpretation of the symbolic threat thesis that emphasizes stereotyping, the authors anticipated Native Americans to be responded to more severely than African Americans, followed by Asian Americans who were anticipated to be responded to more like Whites. The results indicated partial support for these expectations.     

Reassessing the family-delinquency association: Do family type, family processes, and economic factors make a difference?

The present study drew on four competing theoretical perspectives to examine the relationship between family structure and juvenile delinquency. Using data from the Add Health Study, the authors examined nonserious and serious delinquent behavior across youth from different types of households and also considered how the association between family structure and delinquency might be conditioned by family processes and economic factors. Results from negative binomial regression analyses indicated that, in general, type of household was not a significant predictor of nonserious or serious delinquency. Rather, maternal attachment emerged as the most important determinant of delinquent behavior among youth from all family types. The results are discussed within the context of Hirschi's original interpretation of social control theory and future directions for research are suggested.     

On economic values in policy analysis

Analyses of public policy are rooted in the economic theory of the private sector. How relevant is this approach to the public sector? Specifically, where the organization is generally viewed as a controlled variable it often exhibits the characteristics of an independent variable working to constrain the feasible solution space. An illustration of this phenomenon is discussed, using a state rehabilitation agency as the case in point. Conclusions of an analysis based mainly on maximizing the economic value of return on investment conflicted with the agency professional values of individualized client service. This external/internal value conflict led to the apparent inability of the agency to implement the study conclusions in the near term. The substance of this conflict is seen as the main problem facing many public administrators. Recognition of economic values as but one element of public agency analysis is suggested as an approach superior to sole concentration on maximization of the return on public investment. By taking a broader view, the analyst may be able to encourage more rapid implementation of his recommendations.