基层派出所警务运行机制的创新路径--以杭州市S派出所为例

文章从基层派出所警务运行机制角度分析了杭州市S派出所警务运行机制的现状并归纳了S派出所现阶段警务运行过程中存在的主要问题,在实地调研S派出所警务运行工作后总结并提出了派出所在警务运行机制过程中的创新性发展,旨在实现警务运行机制的新拓展,实现警务能力的新提升。     

全球和合共生系统理论与中国周边命运共同体

全球和合共生系统理论是共生理论与系统理论相互融合而形成的全新框架体系,可以作为构建人类命运共同体和中国周边命运共同体的理论分析范式和理论依据。全球和合共生系统理论认为,世界上的一切事物都是一个大系统中的共生体,必须从全球的角度来构建命运共同体。国际体系各组成部分之间的关系是辩证的,即对立的统一。全球体系内部与中国周边体系内部的互相依赖既有积极的一面,又有消极的一面。积极的相互依存是指相互依存的双方都从关系中受益,而消极的相互依存是指任何一方对相互依存关系的破坏都可能给另一方甚至双方带来损失。构建中国周边命运共同体是全球共生体系高级阶段的目标。全球和合共生系统理论的相互依存论决定了优化中国周边体系以实现中国周边命运共同体的必要性。以相互尊重为前提,以公平正义为核心,以合作共赢为目标,应成为构建中国周边命运共同体的三个关键要素。我们应以此来推进构建新型国际关系,进而建立中国周边命运共同体。     

从动员参与到合作治理:社会治理共同体的实现路径

社会治理共同体是新时期我国社会治理的重要主体,也是国家治理和基层治理现代化建设的重要研究对象。基于对S省Z市“民生微实事”项目的案例分析,提出“能力建设-惯习积累-信任强化”的分析框架,揭示了多元主体成长为社会治理共同体的机理,丰富了“主体关系”和“行动方式”的研究视角。研究发现,多元主体基于资源优势互补与主体责任再塑加强了能力建设,能力的提升使其有意愿并且能够建立合作关系;政府通过规则调适以及持续的参与激励来培养多元主体的合作惯习,有助于促进合作行动;共同议题下的利益相容和由参与效能感形成的良性循环会强化信任,进一步增强多元主体间的合作关系和合作行动,进而形成稳定、可持续的合作治理常态,使社会治理共同体得以实现。     

Reproductive health services: “Business-in-a-Box” as a model social innovation

Access to reproductive health services and products in remote and rural communities is a critical area of concern for developing countries. This article considers a pilot intervention in three districts of Pakistan where “Business-in-a-Box” as a model of place-based social innovation is used to improve the socio-economic conditions of women in remote rural settings through socially responsible micro-franchising. It finds that such programmes help build a sense of community, ownership and grassroots capabilities and skills. The article also discusses the impacts of such actions on the individual and community life, and the need to upscale and sustain these initiatives.     

Discrimination and ethnic conflict: a dyadic analysis of politically-excluded groups in sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

The literature on political exclusion and conflict tends to treat grievance-based mechanisms with broad-brush strokes and does not differentiate between types of political exclusion. This study disaggregates politically-excluded groups into two subgroups: groups that experience political discrimination from the state, and groups without political power that are not explicitly discriminated against. We posit that discriminated groups are more likely to experience grievances and therefore are more prone to conflict than excluded groups that are not actively discriminated against. We further posit that the effect of discrimination on conflict is moderated by interactions with economic inequalities and the share of elites. Using dyadic data for 155 ethnic groups in 28 Sub-Saharan African countries, we find that among politically-excluded groups it is indeed discriminated groups that are responsible for most of the association between political exclusion and conflict. Groups that face active, intentional, and targeted discrimination by the state are significantly more likely to be involved in conflict than excluded groups who do not face this explicit form of discrimination. Additionally, we find that discriminated groups who also experience economic inequalities are less likely to engage in conflict, whilst an increased presence of elites within discriminated groups can precipitate the chances of conflict.     

Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

美国国家安全情报传递机制论析

作为世界上情报体系最为发达的国家，美国国家安全情报机制一直以来备受各方关注。九一一事件催生了美国情报体系全面而彻底的改革。经过十多年的努力，美国情报界实现了从机构林立的分散体系到由国家情报总监办公室领导的有机整体的重大转型。从总体机制来看，美国情报界现已形成情报机构一体化与任务一体化的双轮驱动体系，其情报传递网络不仅涵盖领导、协调、执行三个层级间的纵向传送，而且包括不同情报机构之间的横向协调，基本实现了情报整合与信息共享。美国国家情报总监办公室成为名副其实的美国情报界统领，其下设的反恐、反扩散、反情报和网络情报中心构成了美国国家安全情报分类传递机制的四大支柱。通过比较，四大分类传递机制中最为成熟的是反恐中心，其次是反情报与安全中心，再次是网络威胁情报整合中心，最后是反扩散中心。由于各类情报机制自身发展程度的不同，其改革过程中所面临的挑战也不一样。美国国家安全情报传递机制的改革“瓶颈”既有发展不足导致的结构性困境，也有外部安全环境变化带来的挑战。此外，特朗普政府上台后的一系列政策举措使得美国国家安全情报体系的发展方向呈现出新的态势。     

英语教育的劳动市场回报及英语教育政策调整 —— 基于 2016年问卷调查数据

中国的英语教育近年来受到越来越多的重视。无论是国家还是个人都投入了大量资源用于英语教育,如此巨额的投入所带来的劳动市场回报值得关注。英语教育的劳动市场回报可以分为人力资本投入回报和信号作用回报。研究发现,英语在实际工作中使用越多,工资收入越高,是为英语教育作为人力资本投入回报的证据。但在工作中很少用到英语的人,通过英语四六级考试对其工资也有显著影响,反映了英语教育具有信号作用的功能。调查显示,英语教育的信号作用是英语教育劳动市场回报的主要方面。因此,中国的英语教育有过度教育从而导致资源配置低效率之嫌,建议及时调整国家的英语教育政策。     

“独立工人”视角下共享经济就业特征及其影响机制

共享经济中形成了"平台+履约人"的新就业模式,催生了一个全新的就业群体——"独立工人"。"独立工人"与平台之间没有传统意义上的劳动关系,仅根据平台要求向客户提供劳务或服务。研究显示:我国共享经济从业人员以"独立工人"为主,吸纳的劳动力主要是受教育程度较低、技术等级较低、外地农业户籍的青壮年男性。在共享经济中有四至五成的从业人员属于专职"独立工人"。研究发现:选择从事兼职独立工作的群体有长期从业的倾向,而选择从事专职独立工作的群体则不希望继续从事独立工作。为进一步规范共享经济发展、保护"独立工人"的合法权益,可以从重新审视"独立工人"的法律身份入手,探索建立适合"独立工人"的"可携式福利"体系,尝试总结具有权威性的共享经济劳动标准,以推动该领域的劳动立法。     

British Campaigns for Solidarity with Argentina and Chile

The Chile solidarity movement persuaded British Labour governments (1974–1979) to introduce a range of measures against the Pinochet regime. But campaigners lobbying against the Argentine dictatorship (1976–1983) had less impact on policy. Neither these Labour governments nor the subsequent Conservative government imposed any sanction on the Argentine dictatorship, until the invasion of the Falkland Islands. This article explores why in Britain – and Europe – the Chile campaign had greater public appeal than the Argentina solidarity campaigns. It identifies a number of common factors across Europe which explain why the anti-Pinochet cause generated more support than the Argentina campaign.