什么样的“闹大”成功了?--基于40个案例的定性比较分析

社会中层出不穷的"闹大"是公共治理状况的一面"镜子",也是转型时期政策议程建构的重要路径。本文采用清晰集定性比较分析(csQCA),对2003-2019年发生的40个"闹大"案例进行比较研究。研究结果表明,上级(层)政府支持是"闹大"成功的必要条件。推动"闹大"成功的充分条件组合共有八种,可具体归纳为制度框架使用模式、集体施压模式、专家引导模式和暴力强推模式等四种解释模型。公民"闹大"成功是多个条件组合的结果,在核心条件发挥基础作用的前提下,适当的辅助条件更容易触发政策议程,推动问题解决。文章为公民"闹大"的行动逻辑提供了新的因果解释机制,也为理解形形色色的"闹大"现象提供了新的理论工具。     

A mixed DNA profile controversy revisited

Semaan et al. (J Forensic Res, 2020, 11, 453) discuss a mock case “where eight different individuals [P₁ through P₈] could not be excluded in a mixed DNA analysis. Even though … expert DNA mixture analysis software was used.” Two of these are the true donors. The LRs reported are incorrect due to the incorrect entry of propositions into LRmix Studio. This forced the software to account for most of the alleles as drop-in, resulting in LRs 60–70 orders of magnitude larger than expected. P₁, P₂, P₄, P₅, and P₈ can be manually excluded using peak heights. This has relevance when using LRmix which does not use peak heights. We extend the work using the same two reference genotypes who were the true contributors as Semaan et al. (J Forensic Res, 2020, 11, 453). We simulate three two-donor mixtures with peak heights using these two genotypes and analyze using STRmix?. For the simulated 1:1 mixture, one of the non-donors’ LRs supported him being a contributor when no conditioning was used. When considered in combination with any other potential donors (i.e., with conditioning), this non-donor was correctly eliminated. For the 3:1 mixture, all results correctly supported that the non-donors were not contributors. The low-template 4:1 mixture LRs with no conditioning showed support for all eight profiles as donors. However, the results from pair-wise conditioning showed that only the two ground truth donors had LRs supporting that they were contributors to the mixture. We recommend the use of peak heights and conditioning profiles, as this allows better sensitivity and specificity even when the persons share many alleles.     

Observer determination of the make,model, and year of questioned vehicles

Often, criminal acts involving a vehicle are caught on digital video surveillance systems. While potentially useful for an investigation, the recording conditions are typically less than optimal for the extraction of key information for the identification of the perpetrator, such as a license plate. Providing the make, model and year of a questioned vehicle is a common request for examiners, to narrow the field of potential suspect vehicles. This study seeks to compare the performance of a nonpeer-reviewed make, model, and year determination between two separate groups, specifically, trained forensic image examiners and nontrained individuals. Results show that even with varied image capture conditions and quality, the trained forensic image examiners more correctly and completely identified the test group of questioned vehicles make, model, and year.     

Does the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle exist among South Asian countries? A regime‐switching approach

A plethora of literature has been undertaken to study the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka (FH) puzzle. However, divergent views continue to persist in the FH puzzle literature. This study explores the empirical validity of the FH puzzle in the case of South Asian countries using annual data from 1960 to 2017. Both panel data approach and Markov‐switching regression approach are used to empirically analyze the FH puzzle. The results of the cointegration test confirm the long‐run relationships between saving and investment in the selected South Asian countries. The results of Markov‐switching regression confirm that the saving‐retention coefficient has shifted from high to low values and also from low to high values. Thus, the FH puzzle exists for a particular time period and mostly depends on the regime shifts in the South Asian countries. The results of panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methods also confirm that FH puzzle holds for the South Asian countries. Therefore, the study suggests that any saving promotion policies are desirable for enhancing investment among the South Asian regions.     

论人工智能赋值国家治理:方法、视角与维度

赋值是智能政治学的重要研究课题,赋值研究是智能政治学的重要分析方法。人工智能赋值国家治理,从分析视角来看,表现为人工智能科学、人工智能技术、人工智能形态和人工智能体对国家治理的多重赋值和多源性影响作用。从分析维度来讲,表现为人工智能从赋益、赋义、赋能、赋权、赋则和赋责等多维度影响作用或赋值国家治理,甚至推动国家治理从"人工智能+国家治理"的形式赋值质变为"人机智能治理"的实质赋值。选择"赋值"术语工具、赋值理论和赋值分析方法,以分析研究人工智能影响作用国家治理,将有助于探明人工智能赋值国家治理的理论逻辑、历史逻辑和实践逻辑,从而推动智能政治学以及国家智能治理问题的理论研究和学术创新。     

Composite Machine Learning Algorithm for Material Sourcing,

This study developed a composite machine learning algorithm for attribution of materials of forensic interest (like ammonium nitrate) to original sources. k-nearest neighbor and random forest models were used for source elimination and classification, respectively, in a two-step, composite algorithm based on particle color, size/shape, and trace element concentration features. Novel approaches for simulation to supplement within-source reference features based on empirically measured multi-lot analyses, an improved hold-one-lot-out method for cross-validation, an assessment of the likelihood of the presence of a reference sample, fusion of the source probabilities from the respective classification models, and the calculation of metrics for assessing ensemble sourcing performance are described. Excellent sourcing predictions were obtained; the sourcing algorithm identified the correct source as the top choice 89% of the time, and the correct source was identified to be an average of 2.7 times more likely than the most likely incorrect source.     

DNA Recovery From Tape-Lifting Kits: Methodology and Practice

In the case of suspicious deaths, the technique of 1:1 taping is often used in Belgium. It consists of affixing a large number of adhesive tapes to the body of the victim. It is conventionally aimed at obtaining microtraces (e.g., fibers, hair) and is usually not used for DNA analysis. However, in some cases, DNA analysis of certain areas of interest identified on the 1:1 taping material can offer a last resort solution. The four-step method that is described in this article involves the selection of areas of interest on the body (Step 1), the selection of the corresponding tapes (Step 2), the decontamination of the tapes (Step 3), the selection of areas of interest on the tapes, for DNA sampling (Step 4). The method is illustrated by its successful application in four murder cases. In each case, DNA profiles of good quality could be identified, including profiles of persons different from the victim.     

债权形式主义下物权行为有限存在之三维分析及立法建构

民法学界关于物权行为的讨论并未系统、深入,从事实、规范、价值三维角度分析债权形式主义下 应有物权行为的有限存在空间,且和债权行为一样均可单独引发物权变动,但不存在独立性与无 因性问题,并提出了立法建构模式。     

物化观与马克思问题域逻辑转换

物化观是解答当代价值观的一个核心问题。马克思的物化观有一个从早期费尔巴哈人本主义理性批判到实践唯物主义经济分析的问题域逻辑转换过程 ,对物化观的经济分析是马克思主义价值观确立的基础。物化实质上体现了作为商品的劳动产品在资本主义利益关系下对主体 (劳动者 )生存和发展的一种否定关系。正如消灭异化要以生产力高度发展为前提一样 ,只有适应生产力的发展要求 ,改变滋生物化的特殊经济利益关系 ,建构一个用公共的生产资料进行劳动的自由人联合体 ,劳动 (实践 )创造的产品才会体现对主体 (人 )生存和发展的肯定关系。这就是马克思物化观问题域逻辑转换的价值指归。而卢卡奇把物化从经济因素中剥离出来 ,按黑格尔理性革命观的图式将其提升为马克思主义哲学的核心概念 ,它无疑为一切把客观的经济利益关系当作价值事实的唯意志主义提供了理论支持。     

青少年违法犯罪的分析及对策思考

解决青少年违法犯罪问题,既要抓住重点,又要有发展眼光,才能建立适应青少年违法犯罪形势的、动态的控制体系