Present at the Destruction? The Liberal Order in the Trump Era

Abstract

The election of Donald Trump in 2016 sent shock waves across political classes globally and prompted debates about whether his ‘America first’ agenda threatened the liberal international order. During his first year in office, Trump seemed determined to undermine the hallmarks of the liberal international order: democracy, liberal economics and international cooperation. So, are we witnessing the emergence of a “post-liberal” and “post-American” era? Four sources of evidence help frame – if not answer – the question: history, the crisis of liberal democracy, Trump’s world view, and the power of civil society (globally and nationally) to constrain any US President. They yield three main judgements. First, continuity often trumps change in US foreign policy. Second, the liberal international order may have been more fragile pre-Trump than was widely realised. Third, American power must be put at the service of its own democracy if the US is to become the example to the world it used to be.     

Contestation and Transformation. Final Thoughts on the Liberal International Order

Abstract

The liberal international order, the inseparable mix of US geopolitical power and ideational project of organising international relations along normative frameworks such as internationalism, institutionalism and democracy, is reeling under the pressure of profound systemic changes such as greater interconnectedness and multipolarity. Predictions abound that increasing great power competition, most visibly at play in geographical areas of contested orders, will eventually tear it down. However, even if major actors – the US included – display a selective, irregular and often instrumental commitment to the liberal order, they are still repositioning themselves in that order and not outside of it. In addition, conflict is not the default outcome of order contestation, as hybrid forms of governance are possible even in troubled regions. No doubt, the world of tomorrow will be less American-shaped and less liberal, but transformation is a more plausible future than collapse for the liberal order.     

Regional security cooperation reinvented: Western Balkans counterterrorism initiative

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the Western Balkans Counterterrorism Initiative (WBCTi), originally a Slovenian proposal of late 2014, represents an efficient form of regional security cooperation, particularly when regional EU integration is considered. The Initiative that was accepted by the Justice and Home Affairs Council of the EU in late 2015 is the first of its kind. It is aimed at both incorporating and integrating all forms of international assistance that concern increasing the capacity to prevent and combat terrorism, violent extremism, and radicalisation leading to terrorism. Additionally, it is directed at decreasing duplication of actions by international actors and raising levels of efficiency of security cooperation and reform. This article analyses the Initiative by focusing on its structure and claiming that its specific framework represents an innovative approach establishing a fully functional regional structure outlining EU-Western Balkans security cooperation.     

Russia and the USA: The virtual games of superpowers

An analysis of the rapid and dramatic changes in the politics and economics of the world during the twentieth century reveals that the role of science and high technology becomes extremely important for international development, security and cooperation. The consequences of fundamental research become critical for mankind, and they determine and define preventive security. International scientific and technological cooperation, coupled with the financial power of the dollar, will make it possible to avoid an ‘end of history’ or a ‘clash of civilizations’, as well as to resolve many world conflicts. The importance that science and technology hold for the future of humanity must be added to the current definition of ‘democracy’.     

Global Reordering and China’s Rise: Adoption,Adaptation and Reform

Abstract

While much of the debate over the implications of China’s rise tends to dichotomise around either status quo or revisionist predictions, the reality seems to lie somewhere in between. In broad terms, China has embraced multilateral forms of cooperation and governance. This does not mean, however, that it is satisfied with the distribution of power in many international institutions, or some of the norms and principles that underpin them. This has resulted in a reformist position, with China increasingly willing to offer its own supplementary alternatives. China’s rise has also provided an important economic alternative to dealing with the West, and considerably undermined the ability of others to establish their preferences and world views. China’s lack of commitment to democracy and the external promotion of human rights remains a key reason why some analysts remain unconvinced about the long-term ambitions of an illiberal actor in a global liberal order.     

Major world cooperation events, 1945 to 1975

Using event‐interaction data from Azar's Conflict and Peace Data Bank, the authors examine the distributions of major world cooperations and major international interventions by regions of cooperation, types of cooperation, and times of cooperation. Also examined are the distributions of major intervening parties by regions of intervening parties and intervening by intervened regions. In terms of location, it was found that the developed regions of North America and Europe experienced more cooperations than conflicts, while the Third World regions experienced as many conflicts as cooperations or more so. In terms of involvement, the pattern was similar, but not of the same degree. With regard to interventions, 41% of the 122 cooperative interventions occurred in Black Africa; 75% of them were civil; 57% occurred in the decade 1958–1968; and about half of these three percentages were due to the achievement of national independence. With regard to intervening parties it was found that: the first world originated 76% of all interventions; the second world originated 4%; the third world originated 19%; and the U.N. originated 2%.     

GUUAM and the future of CIS military cooperation

This study analyses the establishment and development of the GUUAM cooperation and offers an assessment of the future implications of this regional grouping for the CIS military alliance. It presents three key arguments. First, that the GUUAM members have bandwagoned with western states at the system level and balanced against Russia at the regional level. Second, that there is a dialectical relationship between these two policies, with one getting added momentum from the other. And finally, that on this background we should expect to see increased future balancing by the GUUAM states — and possibly by other CIS members as well — causing a further undermining of the CIS military cooperation.     

Italian foreign policy in the post-cold war period: a neoclassical realist approach

Abstract

Drawing on a neoclassical realist approach, this article analyses the foreign policy conduct of different Italian governments from 1994 to 2008. Pressured by the post-cold war international system, these governments have been compelled to raise Italy's profile within the international system. However, the way in which successive governments have responded has differed markedly. By looking at variables located at the domestic level – elite perceptions of the distribution of power and government instability – it is possible to explain these differences. Neo-classical realism is seen as an advance on Waltzian neo-realism precisely because it allows room for domestic as well as international (or systemic) variables, and because it has a very specific focus on foreign policy as such.     

Buying treaties with cigarettes: Internal side‐payments in two level games

Two‐level games models predict that domestic division within a state can alter the extent to which that state is able to reach agreements with other states, and also alter the content of any agreement that is reached. I extend the model by introducing internal side‐payments composed of unrelated domestic issues. Domestic opposition to an international agreement will inhibit cooperation most when the executive and median legislators are in relative agreement about other salient domestic political issues. Domestic opposition to an international agreement will inhibit cooperation least when the executive and median legislators are in relative disagreement about other salient domestic political issues. U.S. ratifications of the NAFTA and the Chemical Weapons Convention illustrate that not all types of domestic division inhibit international cooperation—some can facilitate it     

Creating norms around the Eastern Mediterranean energy resources as a necessary means of security

ABSTRACT

The energy discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean since the 2000s have placed the long-standing rivalry between Turkey and Cyprus (and by extension Greece) in a new context, bringing also Egypt and Israel into the geopolitical equation. Turkey, on the one hand, has adopted an assertive profile, whereas, on the other hand, two axes of cooperation have been formed, Greece-Cyprus-Egypt and Greece-Cyprus-Israel, convening trilateral summits and signing agreements. In view of that, it is currently upheld that the confluence of energy interests among the actors of the trilateral summits has facilitated a legalisation throughout the Eastern Mediterranean, propelling states towards the development of the energy resources according to the UNCLOS, and the implementation of the international law in the Cyprus problem, as a necessary means of guaranteeing the actors’ sovereignty, creating norms, and enhancing security, without targeting any third country. The argument shows how legalisation, as a special form of institutionalisation, and soft law, in particular, nurture regional cooperation and place it under the “protective wings” of international institutions.     

The Middle East’s Troubled Relationship with the Liberal International Order

Abstract

The Middle East has had a complex relationship with the so-called liberal international order. Many peoples and elites of the region welcomed the promise, and promises, of the liberal order after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and sought to integrate into it; for other peoples and elites, there have been negative reactions and resistance to it. Today, a majority of countries are integrated, at least nominally, into the global order, while some are decidedly still in systemic challenge with it. The Middle East has also had difficulty in cohering as a region; the condition today is one of collapsed regional order and proxy conflict.     

后西方世界秩序下的核武器与核威慑

全球国际社会正处于一个关键的变化时期。长期以来占主导地位的西方秩序在如下几个方面面临包围:霸权分散、全球资本主义危机日益加重、全球共同面临恐怖主义、大规模移民以及环境变化等带来的各种威胁。英国脱欧、特朗普当选美国总统这些事件表明,作为世界秩序核心的英语世界,已失去其主导力量。目前的发展格局将朝着多元化的后西方世界秩序发展。在此秩序下,没有超级大国,只有大国,并且这些大国大多比较自我封闭,因此,并不存在真正意义上的争夺全球霸权的现象。文化差异将比意识形态差异更为重要。文章首先将这一秩序的轮廓做一大致勾勒,然后探讨这一秩序对未来几十年核武器与核威慑所要扮演的角色来说将意味着什么。最为关注的着眼点是,全球格局从全球层面向区域层面的转变以及复杂的核扩散与核威慑态势。     

EU–NATO Relations: How Close to ‘Strategic Partnership’?

Abstract

The paper analyses the developing relations of the European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, both adapting to a new international security environment and building a network of interactions with each other. While the nature and functions of these two organisations remain different, their aims are becoming closer and new capabilities are being formed to achieve the same goals. The paper looks first at the declared level of cooperation with its benefits and limits, questioning whether this level corresponds to the practical one. It then envisages the modalities of EU–NATO practical cooperation in Bosnia and in the Western province of Sudan, Darfur.     

Responsibility to Protect in the Age of Global Terror: A Methodological Reassessment

Abstract

Ten years after its formal adoption, the R2P doctrine remains an incomplete project in a world of continuing conflicts now aggravated by the existential threat of global terrorism. The debate on the permissibility of military action to stop mass atrocities when authorisation to use force is not forthcoming from the Security Council has produced only a plurality of conflicting theories but hardly any progress at the normative level. A two-pronged approach could be used to consolidate R2P as a doctrine fully integrated into the corpus of international law. The first prong requires the revamping of the largely neglected Article 48 of the ILC Draft on State Responsibility; the second involves using R2P as a platform to initiate a reform of customary international law to make it more consistent with elementary principles of justice and universal human rights.     

冷战后世界秩序的变化与重构

冷战结束后,世界秩序发生重大变化。新的世界大战打不起来,但是,局部战争和地区冲突持续不断,国际恐怖主义成为新的安全威胁,美国的新干涉主义政策成为新的战争形式。两大意识形态对抗支配国际关系的时代已经结束,国家利益重新置于外交政策的首要地位。经济全球化加深了国际相互依存关系,扩大了寻求共同利益和国际合作的基础,也加剧了国际竞争和冲突。世界格局多极化是历史发展的大趋势,在多极均衡基础上构建世界新秩序是现实的选择。     

Global Economic Governance between China and the EU: the case of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

The recent establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the initiative launched by the People’s Republic of China in 2013 underpins Beijing’s intensions to promote its own narrative about global economic governance (GEG) as well as China’s readiness to play a far more proactive role at the international level. In the age of global power shifting and with 14 EU member-states part of the AIIB, the European Union (EU) necessitates to engage further with China, in particular, within the context of multilateral institutions. This article analyses the impact of China’s evolving global governance policies on the EU. China’s and EU’s approaches to the reform of global governance present both differences and similarities, yet, the article highlights EU’s needs to make sense to what extent China’s growing ascent in the realm of global governance is reshaping world’s regional and global architectures vis-à-vis financial multilateral cooperation.     

ASIA-EUROPE MEETING (ASEM): fostering a multipolar world order through inter-regional cooperation

Since its inception in 1996 ASEM has provided an opportunity for focussing relations between the EU and East Asia as a forum for informal multilayered dialogue and building a framework for enhanced cooperation in the political, economic and social/cultural fields. Inter-regionalism, of which ASEM is the incarnation in the EU-Asia relationship, developed into an important policy tool of the EU in an effort to maintain a multipolar setting. Regional identities in Asia are at a different level when comparing South East Asia, North East Asia, East Asia and South and Central Asia. ASEM contributed to a certain extent to the region building in East Asia. Although the economic pillar of ASEM turned out to be the more important one when compared to the political and the people-to-people pillars, it will not become the basis for a (deep) inter-regional free trade agreement because of the diversity of the Asian members, reinforced by the last ASEM enlargement. However, turning weakness into strength, ASEM could become the EU’s vehicle for a more holistic approach to Asia thereby fostering a more economic and political multipolar world order. The financial melt down of the international financial order lead to the rediscovery of the need for international cooperation not only on the level of business but also among states. Making use of ASEM, developed over the last 12 years, could provide the much needed platform in the EU-Asia relationship. The author, Adjunct Professor for International Politics at the University of Innsbruck, formerly served as ASEM Counsellor of the European Commission as well as Minister and Deputy Head of the Delegation of the European Commission to Japan and is presently EC Ambassador to Switzerland. He contributes this paper solely in his academic capacity and the views expressed should not be attributed to the European Commission; the thoughtful comments by Brigid Gavin on the draft are appreciated and the research assistance of Tilo Wagner is recognised.

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国际制度视角下“一带一路”与大欧亚伙伴关系的对接

中俄所提出的两大倡议分别代表了各自在国际制度竞争有所加剧背景下的本国利益需求。二者都以拓宽欧亚经济合作渠道为首要目标,但是它们在原则、方向、手段等方面的差异是相互关系的不利因素。为了协调国际规则的制定,中俄确定对接两大倡议。一方面,中俄两国希望通过制度合作制衡美国霸权;另一方面,中俄在欧亚地区的一致性和冲突性并存,双方需要一个协调关系的制度框架。中俄两国既有以制度合作在国际体系层面应对美国压力的意图,也希望在地区范围内协调彼此关系。两大倡议的对接将增强国际社会新兴力量在国际制度体系构建和全球治理中的影响力,同时也能化解中俄双方潜在的矛盾,推动欧亚区域合作的进程。     

论东北亚区域制度化合作的外部干预与内部制约

区域制度化合作的程度反映区域一体化的水平,同时也反映了各国经济、社会、政治诸多层面的合作状况和合作远景。后冷战时代,国际格局的变化为区域性制度化合作创造了发展的空间。国际组织和制度、跨国公司等一些新兴行为体的作用越来越大,这些行为体对于区域制度化合作发挥了先行的效用。同时,东北亚区域制度化合作存在来自外部与内部的干预,区域制度化合作本身制度遵守与网络形成等方面的障碍。但和平与发展的时代特征将为这一地区制度化合作前景提供契机。     

Understanding foreign policy strategies of Kazakhstan: a case study of the landlocked and transcontinental country

Abstract

Examining Kazakhstan’s foreign policy through the lens of its position as the largest landlocked, and transcontinental, country in the world, the paper presents a multidimensional analysis of the unique soft power strategy adopted recently by this nation in promoting its various international initiatives in its region. In doing so, the paper attempts to understand the implications of Kazakhstan’s distinctive geopolitical setting at the heart of Eurasia for regional integration and security-building initiatives that have been proposed and actively supported by this emerging nation. The paper focuses on investigating key political and socioeconomic aspects of the country’s location at the intersection of Europe and Asia and analyses whether a symbiotic relationship exists between Kazakhstan’s multi-vectored foreign policy and the wide range of its international initiatives aiming to promote economic development, partnership and peaceful coexistence between various nations in the region. The key findings and generalizations of the research will facilitate better understanding of the implications of landlocked geography for the direction of foreign policy, using concrete examples and manifestations of political decisions made in the area.