Abstracts

1.The Korean Nuclear Issue Tests Obama＇s Asia Diplomacy,.by Shi Yongming, Senior Researcher, China Institute of International Studies and Guest Researcher of CPDS. Obama＇s Asia policy has just shown an outline of its ＂smart diplomacy＂, i.e., on the premise of sticking to the basic strategy, it attaches great importance to strengthening relationship with the newly-emerging powers and seeks to extend the U.S. influence on Asia by means of dialogue and cooperation. However, the Korean nuclear issue, which is very likely to reach a complicated and even dangerous impasse, is now testing Asia policy of the U.S. new administration. The issue is not only a strategic bottleneck that is a reflection of U.S.-DPRK relationship, but also is constrained by Japan and ROK, whose interests are closely related to the changes of the situation, as well as by some political elements in the U.S.     

＂Deindustrialization＂ and Sino-Brazilian Ties

After the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, major industrial economies became concerned about delndustrlahzation . The important roles that the industrial sector plays in creating jobs and ensuring intemational competitiveness began to be recognized again. The U.S. launched its policy of ＂re-industrialization＂ and Brazil published a plan to develop its industrial sector between 2011 and 2014. China＇s industrial sector has rapidly developed. ＂Deindustrialization＂ sparked widespread concern because it is connected with the global distribution of technological capability and the future global economic order. It is noteworthy that the U.S., Brazil and some other major economies partly blamed China for the problems that ＂deindustrialization＂ has caused and this has had an increasing effect on China＇ s relations with these countries. It reflects China＇ s problem as a new manufacturing power. In this article, the author analyzes those political and economic factors associated with ＂deindustrialization＂ and makes some suggestions for the Sino-Brazilian strategic partnership. In this way, the author explores some ideas on establishing a new type of big power relations.     

China＇s Think Tanks in Global Transition

With China now the world＇s second-largest economy,the status and role of China＇s think tanks have become an increasing concem.On the whole,the international status of China＇ s think tanks is not commensurate with the country＇ s current international status.The University of Pennsylvania＇ s The Global Go To Think Tanks Report published in 2014 said that as of August 2013,China had 426 think tanks,second only to the U.S.with 1,828.But of the top 100 non-U.S.think tanks in the world only 5 are Chinese,and in the 150 most influential global think tanks,only 6 are from China—with the rest mostly from Europe.China＇ s think tanks lack professionalism and influence.1 This is why China has been pushing to improve its think tanks internationally.In April 2013,President Xi Jinping proposed building a ＂new think tank with Chinese characteristics＂.     

U.S. Policy Towards Southeast Asia

Greater East Asia is expected to be the next theatre for world politics. 1 East Asian cooperation is rapidly developing through the channels of ASEAN Plus Three （APT） and East Asia Summit （EAS）, both driven by ASEAN. Southeast Asia is a region of diverse states and cultures that brings together all the major powers of the Asian-Pacific in a myriad of strategic interests. It is thus an open arena with the potential for a variety of strategic game-playing, options, and uncertain outcomes.2 In recent years, China＇s developing relationship with Southeast Asia has undergone a significant shift as the U.S.＇ distraction elsewhere and neglect of the region have created opportunities for an increased Chinese diplomatic and economic role in Southeast Asia.3 U.S. analysts are concerned about what may lie behind this shift in China-ASEAN relations, how it may affect American interests in the region and how best to react to the changes. Some have expressed concerns that to avoid becoming distanced from the region the U.S. should pay more attention to Southeast Asia, rather than just watching from a distance. This paper attempts to analyze the possible changes of U.S. policy towards Southeast Asia in the current context of East Asian Cooperation and its implications for China.     

U.S.-China Relations: A View from Europe

China is playing a crucial role in the Obama administration＇s attempt to build a ＂multi-partner world＂ based on cooperation and shared responsibilities. In light of the profound geo-economic transformations of 2008-2009, the United States has little choice but to strive for partnership, especially with the country that is Washington＇s major creditor. Obama＇s foreign policy approach, however, goes beyond a mere pragmatic adaptation to the new realities and constitutes a unique window of opportunity for the establishment of an unprecedented level of U.S.-China cooperation. From a European perspective, the positive evolution in U.S.-China cooperation has been welcomed as a key contribution to the resolution of the global problems confronting the planet. The European Union has nevertheless reacted with apprehension to the suggestions by American commentators for the creation of a U.S.-China ＂G-2＂. That issue was discussed at the EU-China Summit underlines the seriousness of the proposal and serves, in itself, as a significant indicator of the great transformation of intemational relations characterizing the years 2008-2009.     

China-Central Asia ＂Twin-Track＂ Energy Cooperation

China＇s large-scale investment in Kazakh oil and gas resource development ushered in a new era of China-Kazakhstan bilateral trade in the late 1990s. This lifted cooperation between China and the five countries in Central Asia to a new level, opening the China-Central Asia energy channel and bringing the ＂Silk Road economic belt＂ into being. Central Asia and China＇s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, areas which are both abundant in renewable energy, should fully utilize their geopolitical advantages as neighbors by means of Xinjiang＇s rapid growth. Projecting a twin-track mechanism of developing both renewable and non-renewable energy resources is of great significance to both China and Central Asia.     

The Changing Asia-Pacific Strategic Picture

Battlefield for Strategic Rivalry
In recent years, the Asia-Pacific strategic configuration has entered a stare of in-depth readiustments. The relative decline of the United States,China＇s rapid rise, Russia＇s fast revival and Japan＇s quickening step toward a ＂normal country＂ have combined to turn regional multi-polarity into a reality. Not surprisingly, the world＇ s strategic structure has begun to focus on the region, with intensifying rivalry among major countries centered on economic competition and aggravating geopolitical game conducive to a security dilemma. As a matter of fact, U.S.-Japanese provocations have been at work in tuming regional hotspot issues into tools for such a game. As a result, escalating security threats to China in the East and South China Seas are converging into potential risks of collision and conflicts with other contenders.     

U.S.-China-Japan Relations and China＇ s Strategic Choices

japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe＇s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine has escalated tensions between China and Japan that were triggered by the Diaoyu Islands dispute. Changes in the balance of power between China and Japan have caused concerns and strategic restlessness in Japan. Because of public opinion and his party＇s control of the House of Representatives and Senate, Abe is now eager to further his aims both domestically and overseas. That is why he said： ＂Now is the time for Japan to take the big step in building a new state.＂ The U.S. supports a stronger Japan because it is looking to maintain the strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region. Its Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy is bound to inflame Japan＇s ambitions. In fact, Japan has been actively pursuing stronger ties with the U.S. and became more aggressive over the Diaoyu Islands issue.     

An Analysis of China's Power Status and International Standing

Many Chinese scholars have described China as the world＇s second biggest power after the U.S.. This is based on two facts. First, China overtook Japan in total economic output measured by GDP in 2010 to become the world＇s second biggest economy. Some scholars argue that China still lags behind the U.S. in comprehensive national power and in this sense it is also ranked second） The other is that Sino-U.S. relations are frequently described as the rise and fall of big powers, especially when referring to the Asia-Pacific region. It is the latest example of how relations between a rising power and one struggling to maintain its status have been so complex in the long history of international relations. While many people talk about the possibility that China will overtake the U.S. in the future, others talk about a G2.2 If we look closely at global trends and changes to China＇ s international environment, if we examine what exactly we mean by power status, we will have a much deeper understanding of China＇ s current power status from which we can build a solid foundation for this country＇ s foreign strategy and diplomacy.     

＂Strategic Reassurance＂ and the Future of China-U.S. Relations

＂Strategic reassurance,＂ a new concept in Obama＇s China policy, should be fostered bilaterally by dialogue designed to highlight and reinforce the areas of common interests while addressing the sources of mistrust directly. Yet in practice it seems that U.S. strategic reassurance has contrasted all China＇s core interests. The United States and China must recognize their different social systems and asymmetrical national strength in seeking to realize strategic stability. Crisis control requires sophisticated management of both side, especially on sensitive issues like weapons sales, the Dalai Lama, and the South China Sea dispute.     

Greater Periphery and China, the U. S. and Neighbors

Lu: The world situation tends to be relaxed generally. Big powers often interact, especially in Asia, because China is developing and Asia is developing as well. When we review peripheral and regional situa- tions, we can see it. In China's concept of diplomacy, periphery is put at the foremost position and China's periphery is in a sense the U. S. ' strategic front. Therefore, building a greater peripheral environment, coping well with China's relations with the U. S. and China's Neigh-…     

Sino-U.S.Drug Control Cooperation： Process,Limits and Strategic Choices

Asia＇s Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent are two of the world＇s largest drug-producing areas.They make about 90% of the world＇s opium—Afghanistan alone accounts for about 74% （2012）.1 Illicit drugs production and trafficking in Asia pose a serious threat to China and the U.S..In recent years,China and the U.S.have been working closer to deal with this threat.Their cooperation,however,has not always been smooth.     

China and the United States Can Avoid a Strategic Showdown （detailed abstracts）

The December of 2008 marks the 30th anniversary of China＇s initiation of the reform and opening-up policy and the 30th anniversary of the publication of the China-U.S. Joint Communique. It is not an accidental coincidence. The normalization of China-U.S. relations enjoyed a very significant status in the general openingup blueprint painted by Mr. Deng Xiaoping. It would be beneficial to create a favorable external environment for China＇s modernization drive; and the U.S. would possibly become an important partner for economic cooperation with China. Over the past 30 years, it has been proved that Mr. Deng Xiaoping＇s consideration at that time was completely right.     

The Resurgence of Chinese Anti-Americanism in the 1990s： State Policy or Popular Expression？

While Western observers typically attribute the population＇s nationalist anti-Americanism largely to government propaganda or manipulation, they misunderstand the roots of anti-American behavior in China. As depicted by Peter Hay Gries in China＇s New Nationalism and by Michael H. Hunt in The Genesis of China＇s Foreign Policy, a more nuanced portrayal is in order. While the two books utilize distinct socialpsychological and historical perspectives, an integrative reading of the two suggests that popular expression is in fact largely responsible for China＇s anti-Americanism. At first this conclusion in favor of popular expression may seem at odds with Hunt＇s state-centered analysis of the roots of foreign policy. Nevertheless, after a brief summary of each book and a comparative application to the issue of anti-Americanism, the authors demonstrate that applying a comparative historical reappraisal to Hunt＇s study suggests that both scholarly works support the predominant role of popular expression on contemporary China＇s nationalist anti- Americanism.     

Chinas ＂Host Diplomacy＂： Opportunities

When asked for his outlook on China＇s 2014 diplomacy at a press conference in early 2014, Foreign Minister Wang Yi listed w the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia （CICA） and the informal summit meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation （APEC）, both of which are in China this year, as the country＇s two key diplomatic events in 2014. He labeled these two events as examples of China＇s so-called ＂hosr diplomacy.＂     

World Geopolitics and China＇s Choices

Since the beginning of the 21st century, international geostrategic thinking has experienced two important changes. First, the rise of the Asia Pacific region as a global economic power has shifted the world geopolitical center of gravity from the Euro-Atlantic region to the Asia Pacific region at an ever increasing speed. Second, globalization along with Asia Pacific＇s rise has shaken up world geopolitics. Traditionally, geopolitics centered on power struggles and preparations for war but this is now dying out. New geopolitics emphasizes global interdependence and cooperation. These changes provide a rising China with new opportunities. They are creating favorable conditions for the nation in its ascendance. China now needs to formulate a new geostrategy.     

Energy Development in South Asia and China- South Asia Energy Cooperation

In South Asia, most countries are heavily dependent on energy imports as a result of poor natural endowment, weak exploration capacity and fast economic development. However, being close neighbor to China, the South Asia serves as the corridor for China＇s energy imports and the transit region for China＇s oil and gas pipelines. It is in China＇s strategic interests to conduct energy cooperation with the South Asian countries.     

International System and China＇s Asia-Pacific Strategy

What impact does a shift in the global distribution of power have on the international order？ According to the views of traditional realists, power transitions in the international order are usually accompanied by major wars, the best example being the two world wars of the twentieth century. China＇s peaceful rise is conducive to the peace and stability of Asia and Pacific regions. The steady rise of China＇s position and its role in dealing with international and regional problems have proved China＇s success in ＂cooperative security＂. This paper analyzes the security order in the Asia-Pacific region1 that China wants to construct to provide important guarantees to its peaceful rise. Firstly, I review and compare key arguments about the transition of international systems and China＇s Asia-Pacific strategy, Secondly, I investigate the dynamics between China＇s peaceful rise and the ＂cooperative security＂ which I think are the collective embodiments of modem transformation and the restructuring of China＇s traditional strategic culture. Thirdly, I examine how to construct a mechanism of cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region to guarantee China＇s peaceful rise on both political and economic levels. Economic cooperation and free trade in Asia-Pacific region is an important route to regional economic integrity which will guarantee China＇s role in maintaining the political and economic security in the region.     

Sino-U.S. Relations in the New Century

On September 21, 2005, the Deputy Secretary of the United States Robert B. Zoellick in his speech at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations pointed out that, the United States agrees that China is taking a peacefully developing path and it＇s a successful way of opening and joining the economic globalization that ＂＇no other newly emerged power has ever taken.＂ Zoellick emphasized that the United States should ＂encourage China to be a responsible stakeholder in the international system. ＂ If both the United States and China take the strategic interest into consideration, Zoellick＇s speech will definitely have positive impact on the Sino- U.S. relations ＇future.     

The U.S. Decline Debate and Its Impact

The possibility that the U.S. is in decline has renewed concerns over the international strategic situation and the global order. The World Bank＇ s International Comparison Program （ICP） released data in April 2014 that suggested China＇ s economy could overtake that of the U.S. as soon as the end of this year （based on purchasing power parity or PPP which takes into account the relative costs of goods and services and inflation rates）. Their figures showed that the size of China＇ s economy was 87% of the U.S.＇ in 2011-that is 15% bigger than previously estimated. China＇ s economy is thought to have grown roughly 24% since 2011, while the U.S. economy is expected to have grown less than 8% .2 The possibility that the U.S. economy is in decline has worried both the public and scholars, and has sparked a new round of lively debate on the future of the international strategic situation.