The Evolution of American ＂New Politics＂

Since the Presidential election in 2012, the ＂fiscal cliff＂ issue has plagued the United States. Although this issue relates to the economy, it reflects the unprecedented political polarization brought by the ＂New Politics＂, an escalating conflict between ＂Red America＂ and ＂Blue America＂. The ＂New Politics＂ refers to the intensifying and increasingly ill-tempered rivalry between the Republicans and Democrats, which has seen a decline in presidential authority, a deepening of divisions in society, and a shrinking of the political middle ground. In the past, the tension between the two main political parties was regarded as the motive power of U.S. politics, a source of dynamism and innovation. Now, partisan conflict is preventing both sides from seeking common interests, and seems to have become a struggle only for party interests.     

Religious influence on Current American Politics and Diplomacy

In recent three decades, due to the revival of the evangelicalChristianity and ＂political awakening＂ of the religious right-wing in the United States, religion has played an increasingly important role in U.S. domestic and foreign policy. Regarding U.S. foreign policy, a landmark event of religious influence on American politics was the adoption of the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 （IRFA 1998）. And in respect of domestic policy, religious influence was demonstrated in the American presidential election in 2004. The IRFA 1998 was one of the most comprehensive human rights acts in American history. The adoption and implementation of the Act fully reflected the religious influence on U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. The American presidential election in 2004 provided a stage for the political mobilization of the evangelicals and religious right-wing. ＂Values voters＂ and ＂four million white evangelical voters to return to the polling station＂ were considered a key factor contributing to the victory of the Republican Party.     

Disadvantaged Groups and Asymmetric Conflicts

The article metaphorizes the relationship of extra-system actors with the world＇s dominant international system as a ＂jostle-to-board- the-train Game Model,＂ and transplants the disadvantaged group theory of domestic sociology to international relations. On the basis of this the author proposes a loss-driven model to explain the self-destructive asymmetric conflicts in the world today. As the result of two climaxes in the jostle to board the train games, the author argues that three structural changes have occurred： centralization of power, institutionalization, and legitimization in the international system. These changes have created a ＂spindle-shaped＂ system structure with international disadvantaged groups taking a passive role. Although this structure is highly stable, channels for international disadvantaged groups to express their interests are blocked. As the net losers in the established system and order, international disadvantaged groups have no alternative but to follow the loss-driven model to confront the strong. Their action of ＂beating stone with eggs＂ is surely not capable of overthrowing the whole system, but creates a significant potential threat to world stability and harmony.     

The ＂War of Nerves＂ between China and Japan will Be Another Protracted War

Over the past two years since his remm to power, Abe has been implementing a hard-line foreign strategy, and openly ＂challenging＂ and ＂desperately struggling with＂ China. Specifically, the Abe government has been forcefully pursuing a strategy of ＂active pacifism＂, such as ＂revising the constitution＂, lifting the ban on collective defense and modifying the ＂three principles＂ on arms export, implementing a so-called ＂overlooking the globe＂ diplomacy that takes a cold line on neighboring countries such as China and South Korea, and seeking to make joint efforts with Australia, India, the Philippines, Vietnam and USA in order to set up a sea encirclement against China. As Prime Minister, Abe not only paid an open visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, but also repeatedly denied the history of Japanese invasion in China, as well as its aggressive consequences and associated guilt.     

Gains and Losses of Obama Diplomacy

After a year＇s perfection and evolution, the Obama Administra- tion＇s New Deal in foreign policy has taken shape. A distinctive feature of the Obama diplomacy is that to maintain the leadership status in the world, the United States should use its ＂mart power＂ to achieve its foreign policy goals through multilateral cooperation and in a soft and pragmatic way.     

Readjustments in U.S. Cross-Taiwan Strait Policy

Washington had all along followed an ambiguity policy over its possible military intervention in a Taiwan contingency. However, recent years have witnessed readjustments towards＂ ＂double clarity＂ of a possible military response in case of a Chinese-initiated use of force and potential inaction in the event of a conflict derived from Taiwanese provocations to change the status quo by seeking de jure independence. In other words, it spells a policy shift toward ＂dual deterrence,＂ namely to deter the Chinese mainland from using force in seeking national reunification and to deter Taiwan from moving toward de jure independence. To prevent such eventuality, Washington made direct appeal to the Taiwan public to make clear its opposition to Taiwan independence.
The reasons behind the readjustments are not far to seek. They reflect shifts in U.S. strategic focus, changes in its China policy, political developments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and President Bush＇s personal disgust with former Taiwan leader Chen Shuibian＇s cunning tricks.
However, resumption of Cross-Strait dialogue in the wake of the return to power of the Kuomintang （National Party） through the ballot in March may bring about new worries and possible further readjustments in U.S. cross-strait policy after the November presidential elections. Though uncertainties remain, in the pipeline may be an endeavor to prevent excessive cross-strait warmth and a possible tilt of Taiwan to the Chinese Mainland.     

CIIS Sponsors a Symposium on the Building of ‘One Belt and One Road＇ between China and Arab Countries

On June 3, 2014, CIIS held a symposium in Beijing on the joint construction of ＂One Belt and One Road＂ between China and Arab countries. The symposium focused on discussions on how China and Arab countries can enhance their links and interconnections and strengthen mutual cooperation in financial, infrastructure and energy areas in a bid to build a win-win development pattern between the two sides and bring common benefit to both peoples.     

Reflections on Maritime Parmership： Building the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

The ＂Silk Road＂ is a general term used to geographically describe ancient Chinese exchanges between Asia, Europe and Africa in the areas of politics, economics and culture. Starting on land and developing on sea, the ＂Silk Road＂ is a vehicle of historic importance for the dissemination of culture. The ancient maritime Silk Road was developed under political and economic backgrounds and was the result of cooperative efforts from ancestors of both the East and West. China＇s proposal to build a 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is aimed at exploring the unique values and concepts of the ancient road, enriching it with new meaning for the present era and actively developing economic partnerships with countries situated along the route. Specifically, the proposal seeks to further integrate current cooperation in order to achieve positive effects.     

National Objectives vs. Strategic Choices:——Lessons from Chinese Diplomacy

Modernization, national reunification, social reform and revival as a great power -- these four broad objectives represent China＇s core interests. They have been the defining strategic factors at work behind the dynamics of Chinese diplomacy since 1949. These factors have undergone periods of ＂leaning to one side＂ （toward Moscow） in the early years, ＂opposing two hegemonic powers＂ in the late 1950s, forging ＂one battle line＂ of a global anti-Soviet united front in the 1970s and pursuing a ＂multidimensional＂ diplomacy up to the present. Both positive and negative historical experience of the 60-odd years offers us much food for thought.     

Prospects for a Political Solution to the Crisis in Syria

I. Evolution of the Crisis in Syria
Beginning in early 2011, many people in West Asia and North Africa took to streets in an attempt to urge their governments to step down. As a whole, these various street movements were termed the ＂Arab Spring＂ by Western and some Arab media outlets.     

Maritime Security in East Asia and Prospects for U.S.-China Cooperation

As China and the United States explore how to craft a ＂new type＂ .or ＂new model＂ of bilateral relations, a key challenge will be deepening cooperation on a series of shared security issues. Alongside problems on the Korean Peninsula, cyber security, and other matters, is preserving peace and stability in East Asia＇s maritime regions, especially in the context of ongoing disputes in the Yellow, East China, and South China seas.     

The Clash in Public Opinion between Europe and China： What, How and Why

Recent years have seen a tension between Europe and China in public opinion, which began in 2006 and climaxed in 2008 when the Tibet riots and the Beijing Olympics put China under the global spotlight. Europeans and Chinese view each other more negatively than in ＂the good old days＂ and there is a growing perception gap regarding the Chinese government. The media （including the Internet） and public opinion leaders （scholars, human rights activists, dissidents, politicians and diplomats） have played a part in causing this both in Europe and in China, and this paper examines their roles. This paper also identifies three reasons behind the clash of viewpoints： First, lack of common values has exacerbated Europe＇s fear of a rising China; second, both Europe and China use this hostility to help redefine their self-identity; third, different development needs in China and Europe have nurtured very different mindsets. In the future, the European public＇s interest in China will continue to grow and Europe＇s and China＇s perceptions of each other will gradually stabilize. In the long run, whether Europe will accept a rising China depends on China＇s ability to develop a ＂Chinese thinking＂ which suits both China＇s and the world＇s development needs.     

New Relations Between Major Powers

In recent years, the ＂new-type relationship between major powers＂ ,has become a hot-topic term in the studies of internationalpolitics and international relations. Why is it necessary to build a new-type relationship between major powers？ What are the essence and the connotation of such relationship？ How to build it against the backdrop of a rapidly changing world that is undergoing a profound structural reform and the evolving balance of international forces in international relations in all fields and at all levels？     

Characteristics of ＂East Turkistan＂ Terrorism and Future Prospects

The continuing threat of terrorism around the world has intensified interest in the perpetrators＇ characteristics to see whether a profile or type can be drawn from individual majority of today＇s terrorists features. Research has shown that a are young-to-middle-aged, male, psychological immature, insufficiently educated, and have a family of origin in which a religious atmosphere prevails. If motivations are studied, the studies find that individuals who commit extremist or violent terrorist acts are dissatisfied with the current situation but also convinced it can be successfully altered through their personal capability. Besides these factors of age, gender, education, and religion, a mastery of computers and the internet has been found to be a basic feature common to modern terrorists.1 The ＂East Turkistan＂ terrorists who instigated terrorist activities in recent years in Xinjiang and inland China closely resemble those of their international contemporaries. With access to the three sets of reports from the Ministry of Public Security of China and information from cases tried by national courts in 2013, this article analyzes the relationship between common individual features and terrorist activities, and estimates developments of ＂East Turkistan＂ terrorism.     

Some Thoughts on ＂Harmonious Globalization＂

This article argues that ＂Harmonious Globalization＂ offers a platform for harmonizing the positive and negative aspects of the current U.S.-led economic globalization that reflects the objective laws of human development. The article attempts to chart the path ahead for the world economy in the context of economic globalization, pervasive poverty/inequality, the resultant worldwide political awakening, the degradation of global ecosystems, and the current turmoil in financial institutions. The global challenge ahead will be three-fold： to bring the excluded 1/3 of the world＇s population into the open trade system; to encourage emerging markets like China and India to carry on with open policies and to persuade the developed Western nations to adhere to an open trade system and resist the temptations of trade protectionism. Free market access should be offered to those marginalized countries, the so-called ＂failed or failing states＂ that have been excluded from and angered by the globalization process. The growth in prosperity of these nations will open up a vast potential market for the world.     

Preventing Terrorist Attacks on ＂Soft＂ Targets

Assaults on ＂soft＂ targets are increasing. Since terrorists choose location precisely because of the strong possibility of fatalities and injuries to a mass of unwitting people, counterterrorism strategists must diligently plan to prevent these intensive attacks. As compared to military guards and trained security forces, shoppers and hotel guests are more likely to be paralyzed with confusion in a comprehensive assault by a small group of individuals who have practiced coordinated moves for months. This essay probes the rationale behind the attacks and threatened attacks, and surveys prevention and countermeasures adopted in some countries.     

Characteristics of the ＂Islamic State＂

The extreme organization that calls itself the ＂Islamic State＂ has alarmed the world with its rapid rise and grave damage while drawing sharp censure from numerous directions. In his speech on the strategy of dismantling the ＂Islamic State of Iraq and Syria,＂ American President Barak Obama＇ s called it ＂a terrorist organization, pure and simple.＂ 1 Rooted in Middle East turmoil, facilitated by the irresponsible policies of the great powers and nearby countries, the ＂Islamic State＂ （also known as ISIS or ISIL） stands out from among regional terrorist organizations in a number of vital characteristics. ISIS, disowned by the A1-Qaeda, nevertheless challenges it and seems to gain the upper hand. What lies behind its success are at least two powerful characteristics： its religio-political ambition to establish a recognizable country, and its ability to entice the zeal of Western jihadists.     

The ＂Abe/Aso Regime＂ and Sino-Japanese Relations

Following the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party＇s victory in the December 2012 election, some Japanese analysts pointed out that the new Abe/Aso Govemment would introduce rightist policies, and that as such it would be more difficult for China and Japan to improve their bilateral relations. As expected, in the past six months since its coming to power, the Abe cabinet has vigorously promoted so-called ＂Abe economics＂ and implemented a quantitative easing monetary policy that has caused a drastic depreciation of the Japanese Yen. In order to revise the ＂Constitution of Japan＂, in July 2013 it has been striving to win the election of the Senate. Externally, the new cabinet members have frequently visited foreign countries, implementing a diplomatic strategy of containing and countering China. One of its aims is to completely rid itself of the shackles of World War II and to try to reconstruct powerful military forces. The Diaoyu Islands issue has been used by the Abe cabinet to serve its domestic and foreign policy objectives,     

Thoughts on Building China-Japan Strategic Relations of Mutual Benefit

In the recent two years, leaders of China and Japan have successively exchanged visits dubbed respectively as ＂ice-breaking＂, ＂ice-melting＂ and ＂spring herald＂ tours, and have decided to develop strategic relations of mutual benefit. To develop this relationship requires a thorough understanding of bilateral strategic and mutual interests in the international context as well as the inertia factors in China-Japan relations. Such efforts require a long-term plan as well as actions in solving specific problems in the bilateral relations. It also requires the overall consideration by the leaders of the two countries as well as the social bases of friendship between the two peoples.