战略两难与利益均沾:中国崛起背景下的澳大利亚亚太战略解析

亚太地区正在发生的力量均势变化已经对澳大利亚的亚太战略产生了显著影响,中国的崛起使澳大利亚不得不面临历史上最严重的战略两难——安全盟友与经济伙伴分属于两个有可能处于竞争态势的大国。随着中国力量的上升和中澳经济关系的持续加强,以及美澳传统安全同盟在亚太地区承担的"新责任"的凸显,这种战略两难变得更为尖锐。避免战略两难、维持并扩大利益均沾的局面,成为当前澳大利亚亚太战略的主要目标,同时也是亚太地区多数中等国家共同的战略诉求。     

岸田政府强化日澳安全合作及其影响北大核心

岸田政府将日澳安全关系提升为除日美同盟外最为密切的安全伙伴关系,并以对澳安全合作为首,加紧构建日美同盟之外的次级对外安全合作体系,包括签署日澳《互惠准入协定》,开展更密切且实操性强的安全合作,侧重“印太”经济安全合作等。美国对华战略竞争的长期化趋势及其需求变化“,新时代现实主义外交”下对“印太战略”的深化,以及通过“准盟友”关系来增强威慑力等是日本这一政策背后的深刻动因,中国则是其主要针对目标。从总体上看,日本对澳安全合作呈现出愈加关注太空、网络等新领域,聚焦东南亚区域,突出塑造“安全规范”等趋势,但发展成正式军事同盟的可能性还不大,其进一步深化也面临不少制约因素。岸田政府强化日澳安全合作将密实美国亚太军事同盟体系,促动“四国机制”军事化,为美日澳三国深化“印太战略”的军事合作提供新助力,在海洋问题特别是台海问题上对中国构成新的挑战,并可能加快日本向“军事大国”转型。     

联盟困境、理性选择与澳美同盟的有限升级

任何联盟内部都存在联盟困境(即"被抛弃"与"被牵连")。在"美主澳从"的澳美同盟中,澳大利亚也面临着联盟困境:如果强调战略自主性则担心"被抛弃";如果强化澳美同盟则担心"被牵连"。在中国快速崛起、美国战略收缩和中美战略竞争不断加剧的背景下,澳大利亚认为有限升级澳美同盟——对美国欲"距"还迎——是其缓解联盟困境的理性选择。首先,有限升级澳美同盟不仅可以大大降低"被抛弃"的风险,而且有望提升地区影响力,同时有助于提升澳在中美战略布局中的重要性。其次,由于中美两国仍将长期维持"斗而不破"的状态,澳大利亚"被牵连"至中美军事冲突中的可能性很小,而当下澳美同盟的有限强化对成熟稳定的中澳关系冲击总体有限。澳大利亚为了缓解联盟困境、提升外交地位,有限升级澳美同盟,不仅使澳大利亚收益颇丰、成本可控,收益大于成本,而且中澳关系保持有限紧张是符合澳大利亚国家利益的理性选择。     

印度-澳大利亚海洋合作:动力与制约

印度和澳大利亚近年来不断加强海洋合作。这主要表现在举行联合海军演习、建立海洋对话机制、推动地区海洋治理等方面。两国之所以不断加强海洋合作,主要因为双方都调整了海洋战略、均希望制衡中国、促进经贸合作以及应对海上非传统安全威胁。另一方面,由于双方全球外交战略存在差异、对中国的看法并不完全一致、印度不满澳大利亚发展与巴基斯坦的关系,以及印澳距离较远和经济关系不密切,两国在进行海洋合作时会受到一定制约。不过,由于双方不存在根本性矛盾,共同利益远大于分歧,两国未来还会进一步加强海洋合作。     

“双重依赖”下的战略困境——澳大利亚南海政策及其特点

美自2010年以来,随着南海问题在亚太地区的升温,澳大利亚对南海局势开始予以密切关注。其南海政策主要集中于中国的岛礁建设、航行自由以及南海仲裁案等方面。在具体实施中,澳大利亚南海政策呈现出以下基本特点:强化与争端国的合作,避免单独介入;防范中国"控制"南海的意图明显;中、澳、美三边关系的非对称性,造成澳南海政策取向表现出一定的模糊性。当前,在经济与安全利益方面,澳大利亚已经形成了对中、美两国"双重依赖"的局面。随着中美南海博弈的深入发展,澳大利亚在南海争端中逐渐陷入被动局面,其南海政策的战略抉择也变得愈发艰难。     

澳大利亚的对华对冲战略

面对中国崛起及越来越复杂的亚太地区形势,澳大利亚对华战略表现出较为明显的"对冲"特征,一方面继续加强对华政治、经济关系,另一方面则深化与美国的安全同盟,并注意加强与日本、印度等地区大国的经济与安全关系以及地区制度建设,提升澳大利亚的外交战略空间,确保澳大利亚的经济繁荣与国家安全。在澳大利亚对华对冲战略影响下,中澳经济人文合作有望持续加强,但政治安全互信仍将受到制约。     

从“主要防务伙伴”关系看新时期的美印安全合作

美国赋予印度"主要防务伙伴"关系国的待遇,推动美印战略合作伙伴关系迈向新台阶。近期,美国与印度在防务安全领域的合作取得了长足发展,同时,受到美国政府的积极推动、日益密切防务合作机制、美国不断扩大对印军售规模与不断深化的联合军事演习等因素的影响,两国安全合作不断密切。美印防务安全合作的不断增强既是美国视印度为其全球战略的重要环节,也来自印度对美国的战略冀盼。然而,美印两国不同的战略设想、对国际事务的不同认知以及两国就防务安全合作议题上存在的纷争都影响着美印防务安全合作的更进一步发展。     

澳大利亚-印尼海上安全合作:动因、现状与影响

澳大利亚和印尼作为海上近邻,共同面临着海上非传统安全问题的威胁,如非法捕鱼、人口走私与恐怖主义等,加之两国顶层海洋战略设计的契合,两国开展了海上安全合作。澳印尼的海上安全合作兼顾双边战略框架与多边安全架构,同时在务实领域密切合作。两国的海上安全合作已取得一定成果,在海上安全能力建设领域和非传统安全领域形成了常态化合作机制。两国的合作关系呈现出合作领域主权敏感性低、供给不对称以及机制化程度低等特征。总体来看,澳印尼的海上安全合作对中国周边海上安全并不构成直接威胁,但中国仍需密切关注其发展。     

试析澳大利亚舆论对中国崛起的认知

自1972年中国与澳大利亚建交以来，两国在政治、经贸、人文等方面的合作不断深化，双边关系总体呈现全方位、多层次、宽领域发展的良好势头。然而，随着国际及地区局势的悄然变化，中澳关系近年来出现了一些值得关注的干扰因素。一方面，中国综合国力的快速增长引发澳方各界不同程度的疑虑，不仅“中国崛起对澳是喜是忧”的问题时常引发澳舆论热议，其间亦不乏有“中国威胁论”的声音沉渣泛起；     

澳大利亚在亚太地区寻求新的定位

澳大利亚新政府上台后，演内政外交发生的几件大事使人感到澳的亚洲外交政策有所变化。但澳政府部一再予以否认。作者认为，澳对东亚地区的依赖日益加深，在经济上重视该地区的政策不会改变。但，澳国内强调传统文化的社会思潮以及政府急于加强与美欧的军事政治关系，表明了澳政府在澳亚关系的定位上出现了政策变化。澳今后在亚本地区发挥什么作用也将取决于澳如何自我定位。     

Young American China Watchers＇ Views on China

In this paper, the author has made a thorough study over the new generation of American China Watchers. Most of the pages are devoted to a detailed comparison between the old generation and the young generation of American China Watchers regarding to their background, education, and views over China. At the end of the paper, the author also gives some policy suggestions for both the Chinese and U.S. government based on the findings in this study.     

中国需要构建怎样的周边(英文)

正The new central leadership has highlighted the strategic importance of better relations with neighboring countries and the construction of a solid foundation for China’s neighborhood strategy so as to create favorable conditions for Chinese development.1China is strengthening top-level strategy in foreign relations,focusing on global-level relations and staying committed to relations     

Learning from Others and Starting Built-to-last Companies

正Ruicheng Group was founded in Qiqihar,a city located in one of the three major ‘Chernozem belts’ in the world,the fertile Songnen Plain,and one known as the ‘home of red-crowned cranes’ Over the years,our business developed from being only one supermarket in the beginning to a corporate group operating in multiple sectors,from supermarket chain and real estate to property management and preschool education.     

中巴关系的发展及其认识误区（英文）

China and Brazil established a strategic partnership in 1993. The bilateral ties have seen rapid development in almost all areas. However, there are eight myths surrounding the China-Brazil relations. These myths are the result of a lack of mutual understanding as well as the misconceptions result misconceptions of the western observers and media. These misunderstandings have of have jeopardized images of the China-Brazil relations and also hindered further development of their bilateral relationship.     

中国的“主场外交”:机遇、挑战与任务（英文）

The successful hosting of the CICA summit has drawn great attention The attention to China's "host diplomacy". Analyzing new features of China's "host to "host diplomacy" during this new period, this paper will look at the opportunities and challenges facing China's "host diplomacy" and discuss the problems that China should address in order to do a better job in this regard and bring its "host diplomatic advantages" into full play.     

亚洲整体性崛起及其效应(英文)

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the overall rise of the Asian geographic plate has been particularly prominently. The overall rise of Asia reflects the improvement of a large number of developing countries in Asia. The long-occupied aggressive status of the United States and Europe is weakening, and the overall rise of Asia appears more highlighted, and its impact upon the world seems more intense.     

CAFIU Convenes the 11~(th) Council Meeting in Beijing

正On the morning of April 2,2014,CAFIU held the 11th Executive Council Meeting in Beijing.Present at the Meeting were Member of the Politburo of the 17th CPC Central Committee and Vice-Chairman of the 11th CPPCC National Committee Mr.Wang Gang,ViceChairman of the 11th NPC Standing Committee and President of CAFIU Mr.Zhou Tienong,ViceChairpersons of the NPC Standing Committee Mme     

Speech by Honorary President Zhou Tienong at the 11~(th) Executive Council Meeting of CAFIU (Excerpt)

正I am very pleased to attend the 11th Executive Council Meeting of CAFIU,and would like to express my hearty congratulations to President Yan Junqi,the new leadership and the newly-elected Executive Council.I also want to express my sincere thanks for choosing me to be the Honorary President of CAFIU!     

Name-list of Members of the Standing Committee of the (11)~th Executive Council (in alphabetical order of the surname's first letter)

正I.Political Parties and Government Sector Lu Yan Director,Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce Tong Guili Member,Standing Committee of the CPC Municipal Committee of Hangzhou,Zhejiang Province Secretary,CPC Working Committee,Administrative Commission for the Sci-Tech and Innovation Industrial Park in west Hangzhou City     

FES Head of Department for International Development Cooperation Visits China

正At the invitation of CAFIU,Mme.Christiane Kesper,Director of the Department for International Development Cooperation of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung of Germany(FES)visited China from Oct.9 to 14.During the stay in Beijing,Mr.Li Jinjun,Vice-Minister of IDCPC and Executive Vice-President of CAFIU met with