Metric forensic anthropology decisions: Reliability and biasability of sectioning-point-based sex estimates

Subjective decisions make human cognitive processes more susceptible to bias and error. Specifically, research indicates that additional context biases forensic anthropologists’ morphological analyses. To address whether metric analyses are also subject to bias, we conducted a pilot study in which 52 experienced osteologists measured a difficult-to-classify human femur, with or without additional contextual information. Using a metric sectioning-point sex-estimation method, participants provided a sex estimate for individual skeletal element(s) and, when given multiple elements, the combined skeletal assemblage. Control group participants (n = 24) measured only the femur. In addition to the femur, bias group participants (n = 28) either measured a female humerus and viewed a female-biasing photograph (n = 14) or measured a male humerus and viewed a male-biasing photograph (n = 14). We explored whether the experts in the different groups would differ in: (1) femoral measurements; (2) femoral sex-estimation conclusions; and (3) final sex-estimation conclusions for the skeletal assemblage. Although the femoral measurements and femoral sex estimates were comparable across groups, the overall sex estimates in the female-biased group were impacted by contextual information—differing from both the control and male-biased groups (p < 0.001). Our results demonstrate that cognitive bias can occur even in metric sex-estimation conclusions. Specifically, this occurred when the metric data and single-element sex estimates were synthesized into an overall estimate. Thus, our results suggest that metric methods are most vulnerable to bias when data are synthesized into an overall conclusion, highlighting the need for bias countermeasures and comprehensive statistical frameworks for synthesizing metric data to mitigate the effects of cognitive bias.     

论“本质错误”——以罗马法为中心

在罗马法中,本质错误与身份错误、行为性质的错误、标的物错误并称为使行为无效的四种实质性错误。本质错误与材料错误相关又不等同于材料错误。本质错误的内涵见于D.18,1,9,2中的"醋为酒卖"案,是在社会经济功能影响下的标的物之内在特性发生错误。本质错误的外延见于"古杯"案及D.18,1,11、D.18,1,14等文本,涵涉了大部分的材料错误和性别错误,并可以作为一种兜底条款适用于那些对诸如艺术品价值、作者发生错误的情形。本质错误在近代演化为法国法的"实质错误"、意大利法的"本质上的错误"、瑞士法的"重大错误"、德国法和我国台湾地区法的"性质错误",在赋予法官自由裁量权的功能上,它们和中国大陆民法的错误制度殊途同归。     

The Error in “Error Rate”: Why Error Rates Are So Needed,Yet So Elusive

Establishing error rates is crucial for knowing how well one is performing, determining whether improvement is needed, measuring whether interventions are effective, as well as for providing transparency. However, the flurry of activities in establishing error rates for the forensic sciences has largely overlooked some fundamental issues that make error rates a problematic construct and limit the ability to obtain a meaningful error rate. These include knowing the ground truth, establishing appropriate databases, determining what counts as an error, characterizing what is an acceptable error rate, ecological validity, and transparency within the adversarial legal system. Without addressing these practical and theoretical challenges, the very notion of a meaningful error rate is limited.     

Metrological framework for selecting morphological characters to identify species and estimate developmental maturity of forensically significant insect specimens

Accurate age estimates of immature necrophagous insects associated with a human or animal body can provide evidence of how long the body has been dead. These estimates are based on species-specific details of the insects’ aging processes, and therefore require accurate species identification and developmental stage estimation. Many professionals who produce or use identified organisms as forensic evidence have little training in taxonomy or metrology, and appreciate the availability of formalized principles and standards for biological identification. Taxonomic identifications are usually most readily and economically made using categorical and qualitative morphological characters, but it may be necessary to use less convenient and potentially more ambiguous characters that are continuous and quantitative if two candidate species are closely related, or if identifying developmental stages within a species. Characters should be selected by criteria such as taxonomic specificity and metrological repeatability and relative error. We propose such a hierarchical framework, critique various measurements of immature insects, and suggest some standard approaches to determine the reliability of organismal identifications and measurements in estimating postmortem intervals. Relevant criteria for good characters include high repeatability (including low scope for ambiguity or parallax effects), pronounced discreteness, and small relative error in measurements. These same principles apply to individuation of unique objects in general.

Key points

• Metrological rigour can increase in forensic entomology by selecting measurements based on their metrological qualities.
• Selection of high-quality features for morphological identification of organisms should consider these criteria: (1) pronounced discreteness of features (minimising group overlap or maximizing interval); (2) high repeatability of assessment (such as symmetrical width rather than asymmetrical length); (3) small relative error in measurement (selecting the physically largest continuous rigid feature for measurement).
• These metrological principles also apply to individuation of unique objects in general.

     

共犯的共犯初论

共犯的共犯是刑法理论和刑法立法上的"冷僻"地带。大陆法系国家的刑法理论纵然对其有些许论述,但依然难以称得上"系统"。对于共犯的共犯之概念,国内外刑法学界都未给出明确界定,而仅有一些"轻描淡写"的解释性表述。至于共犯的共犯之分类、理论归属、认识错误以及刑事责任的把握,则是整个刑法学界未有深入探讨的问题。然共犯的共犯在现实生活中并非仅存于想象之中,其依然会出现在各类共同犯罪之中,故对共犯的共犯诸问题的讨论对刑法理论的完善和司法实践中相关问题的解决大有裨益。     

美中贸易协调性的实证分析:垂直专业化视角

基于2005～2012年的月度数据进行实证分析,协整检验结果表明,美国对华出口与从中国进口存在长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型看,短期内美国对华出口与从中国进口之间存在动态调整机制。根据格兰杰因果关系检验,在滞后6期内,美国对华出口与从中国进口之间只存在单向的因果关系,美国对华出口是美国从中国进口的格兰杰原因,美国对华出口增长是美国从中国进口增长的决定因素。脉冲响应函数分析表明,美国对华出口的某一冲击会给美国从中国进口增长带来同向冲击。这些实证结果表明垂直专业化分工在驱动着美中贸易,政府在制定平衡美中贸易的政策时,不应忽视垂直专业化分工以及市场对维持美中双边贸易均衡的约束机制。     

政府决策失误的责任追究探讨

政府决策是政府行使国家管理职能的有效工具和手段,它在国家政治、经济、文化、外交领域发挥着巨大的作用。然而“政府决策失误”一旦酿成,轻则会给国家和人民造成重大财产损失,重则会造成人员伤亡。有权力即有责任,问责“政府决策失误”是建立责任政府和构建和谐社会的必然要求。     

侦查错误探究

侦查错误理论要求侦查主体在侦查过程中正确、全面、发展地诠释和抑制对科学侦查有负面导向的侦查主体、侦查客体、侦查方法和相关人的致错因素。侦查主体未能形成正确的侦查错误意识，不明确侦查错误的表现形式，缺乏探求侦查错误成因的勇气，将很难在侦查错误预防上大有所为。对侦查人员来说，运用侦查学基础知识，准确界定侦查错误概念，明确侦查错误表现形式，探求侦查错误原因，进行侦查错误预防，是十分必要的。     

电子通信错误对合同效力的影响

电子交易中往往会产生一些错误,这类错误与自动电文系统密切相关,主要包括两类：人为错误和信息系统产生的差错。对于电子通信中的人为错误问题,我国应参照美国、欧盟等立法,尤其是借鉴UECIC的规定,做出专门规定,自然人在与自动电文系统交易的过程中,允许发生错误的当事人在自动电文系统未向其提供更正错误的机会时撤回电子通信中发生错误的部分。由于问题的复杂性,电子商务的国内和国际立法都没有就信息系统本身出错的后果做出规定,宜由国内法院根据实际情况而提供不同的答案。     

关于刑事司法错误的理论动向：背景、现状及意旨

司法错误是反衬转型中国司法运行状态的重要指标之一。在司法转型的宏观背景下，诉讼法学界开始热烈研讨该论题，但晚近关于司法错误的研究动向却表现出感性、凌杂以及西方中心主义等现状困境。鉴于此，未来的理论走向不仅应张扬刑事司法错误在透视实践、变革制度、深化理论等方面的研讨意义，同时反思进路应更为实证、系统与本土。