什么样的“闹大”成功了?--基于40个案例的定性比较分析

社会中层出不穷的"闹大"是公共治理状况的一面"镜子",也是转型时期政策议程建构的重要路径。本文采用清晰集定性比较分析(csQCA),对2003-2019年发生的40个"闹大"案例进行比较研究。研究结果表明,上级(层)政府支持是"闹大"成功的必要条件。推动"闹大"成功的充分条件组合共有八种,可具体归纳为制度框架使用模式、集体施压模式、专家引导模式和暴力强推模式等四种解释模型。公民"闹大"成功是多个条件组合的结果,在核心条件发挥基础作用的前提下,适当的辅助条件更容易触发政策议程,推动问题解决。文章为公民"闹大"的行动逻辑提供了新的因果解释机制,也为理解形形色色的"闹大"现象提供了新的理论工具。     

A mixed DNA profile controversy revisited

Semaan et al. (J Forensic Res, 2020, 11, 453) discuss a mock case “where eight different individuals [P₁ through P₈] could not be excluded in a mixed DNA analysis. Even though … expert DNA mixture analysis software was used.” Two of these are the true donors. The LRs reported are incorrect due to the incorrect entry of propositions into LRmix Studio. This forced the software to account for most of the alleles as drop-in, resulting in LRs 60–70 orders of magnitude larger than expected. P₁, P₂, P₄, P₅, and P₈ can be manually excluded using peak heights. This has relevance when using LRmix which does not use peak heights. We extend the work using the same two reference genotypes who were the true contributors as Semaan et al. (J Forensic Res, 2020, 11, 453). We simulate three two-donor mixtures with peak heights using these two genotypes and analyze using STRmix?. For the simulated 1:1 mixture, one of the non-donors’ LRs supported him being a contributor when no conditioning was used. When considered in combination with any other potential donors (i.e., with conditioning), this non-donor was correctly eliminated. For the 3:1 mixture, all results correctly supported that the non-donors were not contributors. The low-template 4:1 mixture LRs with no conditioning showed support for all eight profiles as donors. However, the results from pair-wise conditioning showed that only the two ground truth donors had LRs supporting that they were contributors to the mixture. We recommend the use of peak heights and conditioning profiles, as this allows better sensitivity and specificity even when the persons share many alleles.     

Observer determination of the make,model, and year of questioned vehicles

Often, criminal acts involving a vehicle are caught on digital video surveillance systems. While potentially useful for an investigation, the recording conditions are typically less than optimal for the extraction of key information for the identification of the perpetrator, such as a license plate. Providing the make, model and year of a questioned vehicle is a common request for examiners, to narrow the field of potential suspect vehicles. This study seeks to compare the performance of a nonpeer-reviewed make, model, and year determination between two separate groups, specifically, trained forensic image examiners and nontrained individuals. Results show that even with varied image capture conditions and quality, the trained forensic image examiners more correctly and completely identified the test group of questioned vehicles make, model, and year.     

Terrorist violence and the enrollment of psychology in predicting Muslim extremism: critical terrorism studies meets critical algorithm studies

Discourse on terrorist violence has long facilitated an especially liberal form of securitisation. Originally evoked in reference to anarchists and communists, a rational consideration of terrorist violence, inaugurated by the concept, asks for deferred judgement about the nature of, or reasons behind, violence related to terror on the premise that state and international legal norms governing the legitimate use of violence fail to circumscribe the proper capacities of the state to regulate and explain terrorism. Where sovereign powers along with their military and civilian instruments of coercion are deemed unable to regulate violence effectively, analysts of terrorist violence and their readership are invited to consider and cultivate new sensibilities. Beginning in the 1980s, studies by psychologists found renewed urgency among a growing cadre of interdisciplinary terror experts who found religion, Islam especially, a key variable of analysis. I situate their contributions in a longer history of secular and racialising discourse about terrorist violence. Central to this history are practices of reading, translating, interpreting and archiving texts. Evidence for the argument is based on the analysis of an algorithm that allegedly predicts the likelihood of terrorist strikes by counting words spoken by al-Qa?ida leaders and correlating their frequency with over 30 psychological categories.     

新媒介技术下中国政治传播的改变及应对

在新媒介时代,网络空间成为政治传播线上宣传的公共领域,新媒介技术成为不断推动这个领域创新发展的重要力量。新媒介技术下的政治传播格局发生改变,政治传播主体更加多元,政治传播方式更加多样,政治传播的问题也逐渐凸显。转变传统公共政治传播观念,以新媒介技术为支撑,传播优质内容,寻求与公众的政治共识,建立公共传播与公众传播的多向互动格局,增强公众对政府的信任度,能够对新媒介技术下政治传播生态的健康发展产生积极作用。     

Symbolic Political Communication,and Trust: A Young Voters’ Perspective of the Indonesian Presidential Election

Communication in political marketing plays an important role in political mobilization, building trust both in political actors and the government. Politicians construct their messages through careful branding as the power of the cultural symbols and signs conveyed through the brand are potent heuristic devices. This is particularly important in emerging democracies, where there is limited political knowledge and understanding. Therefore, this research explores how young voters understand the symbolic communication fashioned by political actors in Indonesia and how it relates to their brand. Indonesia is an interesting area for study; it is both secular and the world’s largest Muslim democracy. Using a phenomenological approach, a total of 19 in-depth interviews with young voters were conducted to gain rich insight into perceptions of the complexity of political symbolism, and trust among young voters. This study conceptualized political communication as a dual approach. The political brand promise is intrinsically linked to cultural references and conveyed through symbolic communication combined with a distinctive brand message. This builds trust, which then affects political participation. This conceptual framework provides insights into the importance of culture in branding which has implications for policy makers and actors in emerging and established democracies.     

新时代提升党员干部政治能力问题研究--基于安徽省的调查与思考

政治能力是新时代党员干部第一位的能力。当前党员干部政治能力建设中还存在着政治敏锐性不高、政治定力不足、政治担当不够、政治执行力不强等问题,究其原因,既有主观方面的因素,也有客观方面的因素。因此,新时代提升党员干部政治能力,必须从加强党的长期执政能力建设出发,从党员干部个人和党组织主客观两个方面切入,既靠党员干部自身努力内外兼修提升政治能力,也要靠组织培养,充分发挥党组织政治功能。     

“独立工人”视角下共享经济就业特征及其影响机制

共享经济中形成了"平台+履约人"的新就业模式,催生了一个全新的就业群体——"独立工人"。"独立工人"与平台之间没有传统意义上的劳动关系,仅根据平台要求向客户提供劳务或服务。研究显示:我国共享经济从业人员以"独立工人"为主,吸纳的劳动力主要是受教育程度较低、技术等级较低、外地农业户籍的青壮年男性。在共享经济中有四至五成的从业人员属于专职"独立工人"。研究发现:选择从事兼职独立工作的群体有长期从业的倾向,而选择从事专职独立工作的群体则不希望继续从事独立工作。为进一步规范共享经济发展、保护"独立工人"的合法权益,可以从重新审视"独立工人"的法律身份入手,探索建立适合"独立工人"的"可携式福利"体系,尝试总结具有权威性的共享经济劳动标准,以推动该领域的劳动立法。     

论人工智能赋值国家治理:方法、视角与维度

赋值是智能政治学的重要研究课题,赋值研究是智能政治学的重要分析方法。人工智能赋值国家治理,从分析视角来看,表现为人工智能科学、人工智能技术、人工智能形态和人工智能体对国家治理的多重赋值和多源性影响作用。从分析维度来讲,表现为人工智能从赋益、赋义、赋能、赋权、赋则和赋责等多维度影响作用或赋值国家治理,甚至推动国家治理从"人工智能+国家治理"的形式赋值质变为"人机智能治理"的实质赋值。选择"赋值"术语工具、赋值理论和赋值分析方法,以分析研究人工智能影响作用国家治理,将有助于探明人工智能赋值国家治理的理论逻辑、历史逻辑和实践逻辑,从而推动智能政治学以及国家智能治理问题的理论研究和学术创新。     

Vigilante justice and informal policing in post-Euromaidan Ukraine

During and after the Euromaidan, the Ukrainian society experienced an emergence of non-state groups that combined elements of civic activism and paramilitarism. They operated independently from the state and often used extra-legal violence to restore law and order, deliver justice, and protect Ukraine from external and internal threats. Their conduct closely resembles vigilantism. This article draws on the body of criminological and sociological research on vigilantism in order to understand the diverse landscape of vigilante groups in post-Euromaidan Ukraine. It explores the complex relationship between the most representative vigilante groups, the Ukrainian government, and the political and business elites; analyzes the legal boundaries of vigilantism in Ukraine; and discusses the outcomes of vigilante justice for democratic consolidation, rule of law, and human rights. This article offers a new paradigm for theorizing popular mobilization in Ukraine and sheds light on important dimensions of the formation of an informal system of policing and justice.