产权制度变迁与经济绩效——匈牙利与俄罗斯比较研究

产权制度变迁是促进经济增长还是阻碍经济增长取决于产权制度变迁的方式。而选择什么样的产权制度变迁方式又取决于是否存在制衡政府的力量及其讨价还价能力的大小。俄罗斯的产权制度变迁在“剧变”之前一直是政府主导的强制性制度变迁，不存在能够制衡政府的社会力量，也就不能突破“诺思悖论”，最终走上了激进的制度变迁道路。匈牙利的产权制度变迁在转轨之前也是政府作为单一主体推动的强制性制度变迁。但是在强制性制度变迁过程中，有一个非国有经济孕育、发展、壮大的过程。这一过程逐渐改变了政府和社会力量的对比，使匈牙利在市场化改革中走在前面，最终采取了渐进的产权制度变迁方式。不同的制度变迁方式使两国表现出迥异的经济绩效。     

俄罗斯FDI区位选择影响因素实证分析

近年来,俄罗斯由于能源贸易蓬勃发展以及产业结构的调整优化,吸引FD I流入的能力也不断增强。2007年俄罗斯更是以同比增长70.3%的成绩在所有吸引外国直接投资的国家中名列第七。从FD I的区域流向来看,出现了FD I集中于制造业、采掘业和加工业等行业的现象。对当前俄罗斯FD I区位流向进行实证研究,可以发现产业集聚程度和创新能力是影响俄罗斯FD I区位选择的主要因素。     

政权与产权关系视角下的俄罗斯社会变迁（1991-2012年）

产权有效与否以及能否持续供给,直接决定一个国家的兴起与衰落,而产权背后是政治制度.产权与政权是社会经济体系的两大基本制度,其相互关系的制度重构属于制度建构的核心内容.在现实中,与政权和产权关系理论相关联的问题就是：什么样的产权制度是最为有效的？俄罗斯国家转型道路上的坎坷,其原因在于俄不能够确定产权制度,权力所有制中政权始终在产权明晰上错位,政权干涉产权,产权制度不能够得到落实.     

俄罗斯军工企业:一个制度变迁史的探讨

处于困境中的俄罗斯军工企业在产权、管理、采购、军转民、军品外贸、动员等方面进行了一系列的制度变迁。这一变迁是公共选择的结果,从总体看其市场化变迁有利于提高军工企业的经济绩效,而对产权变迁的重视符合市场化变迁的一般要求。通过对军工企业的战略性改组,建立精干、高效的军工体系。产品的高科技化、管理的法制化,坚持军转民和加强军火交易将在俄未来的军工企业制度中占有十分重要的地位     

评析外国直接投资对非洲国家经济发展的影响

2000年以来,基于科学技术突飞猛进的发展和国际产业分工格局的深刻变化,经济全球化趋势加速深化。外国直接投资作为国际资本流动的主要方式已经成为带动新兴发展中国家经济体快速增长的重要手段之一。随着非洲大陆外国直接投资流入规模的不断增加,外资在非洲东道国经济发展中的重要性日益增加。当前外资对于非洲国家的资本形成、制度变迁、对外贸易、技术进步、可持续发展等方面都产生了一定影响。非洲国家应该权衡利弊,提高对外资的吸收能力,更好地通过利用外资实现经济发展。     

东盟外国直接投资的新趋势

20世纪90年代以来,东盟外国直接投资(FD I)流入量呈现持续波动的状态。90年代中期前,东盟一直是发展中国家吸引FD I最多的地区之一,在全球FD I流入总量中的份额呈持续上升的趋势。随后,金融危机的爆发、世界经济形势的恶化以及全球FD I竞争的加剧,对东盟国家吸引FD I带来了严重     

俄罗斯国有企业产权制度变迁的绩效分析

制度变迁是一种投入。因此分析制度变迁的绩效不能仅用静态的分析方法,只注意某一时点的交易费用和收益,还应该运用动态分析法,分析新制度的创新能力以及对一国社会经济的潜在影响。在评价俄罗斯国有企业的产权制度变迁绩效时,不仅要客观承认其所付出的交易成本,还要客观承认其交易收益。     

俄罗斯转型过程中的政策选择与制度变迁互动模式

本文以俄罗斯转型时期政策主体行为与制度变迁的双向影响为线索，对影响俄罗斯转型的制度性因素和影响制度变迁的政策原因进行了研究，试图探讨一种转型时期所特有的政策选择模型。受制度的理性选择理论启发，本文强调了既有制度框架对转型政策选择的巨大影响力，这是俄罗斯转型进入最初的非效率制度结构的重要原因；又具体分析了俄罗斯转型期政策主体的互动与博弈，这是实现制度供给的重要途径。通过对俄罗斯转型时期政策过程的分析，本文认为“旧的制度框架→政策主体的互动→政策创新→制度供给→新的制度框架形成”的循环往复是转型时期“制度-政策”的双向作用机制。     

制度变迁与经济转轨--对原苏联和东欧10年经济转轨的思考

本文试图从制度变迁的角度探讨原苏联和东欧经济转轨的经验教训.本文对"华盛顿共识"与"后华盛顿共识"的讨论进行评论,认为其理论贡献在于强调了制度在经济转轨中的重要性.本文对制度变迁与经济转轨的相关问题进行了深入探讨,如制度遗产与经济转轨、制度变迁的特点及制度变迁中的最优选择与次优选择等,并指出产权、法治与责任政府是转轨国家取得成功的必要因素.     

产权制度演进的政治经济逻辑：来自俄罗斯破产法的证据北大核心CSSCI

随着20世纪90年代转轨初期大规模私有化过程的结束,俄罗斯主要市场参与者对产权制度的政治偏好发生了重大变化:昨天的国有资产攫取者迅速转变成为今天私有产权最有力的维护者,这为私有产权体系奠定了社会基础。对俄罗斯在1992年、1998年和2002年通过的三部破产法背后的政治经济过程的分析显示:在大规模私有化终结之后即便所有的微观个体都成为私有资产的所有人、即便所有人(包括国家利益的代表)完全认同保护私有产权的抽象目标,他们对于具体的破产制度的需求仍然在多个维度上存在重要差别,相应的政治斗争恰恰是构建市场制度的常态,后苏联俄罗斯语境中的"原始积累终结论"并未终止。     

The Catalytic Effect of IMF Lending: Evidence from Sectoral FDI Data

Our study contributes to the search for the elusive catalytic effect of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending on inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Recent scholarship has found that the catalytic effect is conditional on political regime and program stringency. We contribute to this literature by developing and testing a theory which describes how the catalytic effect also varies by economic sector. This is a departure from existing studies, which have tended to focus on aggregate FDI flows after crises. Our findings corroborate previous research, which finds that in general IMF lending has a substantial and negative effect on FDI. However, we find that the negative effect is concentrated in sectors that are highly dependent on external capital and have low sunk costs in the host country. Our findings are robust to several alternative explanations common in IMF literature, namely the importance of IMF program design and the ability of governments to make credible commitments to reform. Substantively, our findings suggest that investors are more likely to use IMF lending as an escape hatch in countries where FDI is dependent on external capital and has low sunk costs.     

试论印度利用FDI的经济效应及启示

外国直接投资（FDI）对东道国经济作用是多维度的，本文从多个视角透析FDI对印度资本形成、技术溢出、产业演进以及贸易结构的作用，从而揭示FDI对印度所产生的经济效应，并提出对中国利用FDI的启示，这对我们进一步认识和把握印度经济发展动态具有重要的战略意义。     

Foreign direct investment and the risk of regime transition in autocracies

Economic globalization and, in particular, foreign direct investment (FDI) have often been considered to be catalysts for economic reform and political liberalization. It is argued that openness to foreign investment spurs democratization by empowering pro-liberalization actors and undermining elite cohesion. This article explores and tests three alternative hypotheses linking FDI and autocratic regime survival. The liberalization hypothesis claims that FDI promotes democratization. The state-capture hypothesis suggests that FDI, by increasing the value of power, may raise the risk of an autocratic transition. Lastly, the stabilization hypothesis, contrary to the first two, claims that FDI can enhance dictatorships’ stability by opening new opportunities for distributing benefits to regime elites. The empirical analysis, covering about 100 countries for the time period 1970–2008, uses data on autocratic breakdowns and transition types to test the above hypotheses. The reported evidence does not support the liberalization or the state-capture hypothesis. FDI is found to reduce the likelihood of democratic transitions.     

长吉图先导区扩大利用外商直接投资研究

积极利用外商直接投资,对于促进长吉图先导区经济加快发展、全面提高对外开放水平和产业升级等都具有极为重要的意义。针对长吉图先导区利用外商直接投资存在的总体规模小、对外商直接投资具有较强承接能力的产业偏少、资金到位率波动明显且水平偏低等问题,长吉图先导区扩大利用外商直接投资,应该重点抓好全面优化投资环境、明确利用外商直接投资重点区域、拓宽利用外资领域、协调区域招商引资政策等工作。     

Investors,turbulence, and transition: Democratic transition and foreign direct investment in nineteen developing countries

Do profit‐seeking foreign direct investors value a country's transition to democracy? If they do, they should vote with their pocketbooks, resulting in a post‐transition increase in foreign direct investment flows. This study attempts to uncover links between transition to democracy and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, In doing so, it addresses existing arguments about connections between democracy and investor behavior. The regions examined have not only experienced democratic transitions, they also account for the majority of the increasing flow of FDI to the developing world. This research employs time‐series cross‐sectional (TSCS) economic and political data, using ordinary least squares with panel corrected standard errors. The central finding is that transition to democracy has a negative effect on FDI. Secondarily, political instability and higher levels of democracy also deter foreign direct investors.     

Democracies only: When do IMF agreements serve as a seal of approval?

Conditional lending by the IMF is predicated, in part, on the belief that IMF programs are associated with increased capital inflows to participating countries. This belief is generally consistent with theoretical arguments in the academic literature (e.g., Bird and Rowlands 1997; Bordo et al. 2004) but the empirical literature often finds otherwise (e.g., Jensen 2004). This paper argues that the effect of IMF agreements on a country’s access to foreign direct investment (FDI) depends on its domestic institutions. Access to FDI depends on a country’s ability to credibly commit to implementation, and this ability varies systematically across regime type. The theory is empirically tested using a treatment effects model with a Markov transition in the treatment equation in a dataset covering 142 countries from 1976 to 2006. We find that in democracies IMF program participation has a strong positive effect on FDI inflows and in autocracies participation has a weak negative effect.     

吉林省外商直接投资经济效应的实证研究

外商直接投资(FDI)对经济增长的促进作用近年来越来越成为各国、各地区的关注热点。在国务院做出促进东北老工业基地进一步扩大对外开放战略部署的新形势下,通过协整关系分析和Granger因果检验对吉林省FDI的经济效应进行实证研究,发现吉林省FDI与经济增长之间具有长期稳定的均衡关系,并且存在FDI到经济增长的单向因果关系。据此提出:吉林省要持续发展,必须加快扩大外资规模、优化投资结构,合理有效、因地制宜地利用外资。     

Campaigning for Capital: Fair Elections and Foreign Investment in Comparative Perspective

This article makes several contributions to the literature on political risk and the determinants of capital inflows. First, I clarify the relationship between capital flows and democracy’s constituent parts in a way that takes arguments beyond aggregate democracy indicators and static political institutional structures. Specifically, I argue that fair elections signal government respect for democracy and the rule of law in a highly visible manner investors can access. I show how investors therefore use the fairness of elections as a way to assess political risk and to inform their investment strategies. However, the type of investment and the kinds of evidence of electoral misbehavior condition elections’ influence on capital flows. I also disaggregate capital flows into foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment. I argue that the logic of investing is different in the short term (portfolio) versus the long term (FDI). When it comes to political risk, I provide evidence that portfolio investment is much more sensitive to risk factors than FDI because of the relative ease with which portfolio investors can extricate themselves from an increasingly risky market and seek safer returns elsewhere compared to direct investors.     

越南外商直接投资的特点及其对经济增长的影响

从20世纪80年代后期开始,越南开始推行经济体制改革,鼓励外商投资者到越南投资.由于越南丰富的劳动力资源和良好的社会环境,越南经济增长很快,良好的经济基本面吸引了大量外商直接投资,而外商直接投资在越南经济增长中也发挥了重要作用.     

The influence of interest: Real US interest rates and bilateral investment treaties

Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) present developing countries with a trade-off. BITs plausibly increase access to international capital in the form of foreign direct investment (FDI), but at the cost of substantially curtailing a government’s policy autonomy. Nearly 3000 BITs have been entered into, suggesting that many countries have found this trade-off acceptable. But governments’ enthusiasm for signing and ratifying BITs has varied considerably across countries and across time. Why are BITs more popular in some places and times than others? We argue that capital scarcity is an important driver of BIT signings: The trade-off inherent in BITs becomes more attractive to governments as the need to secure access to international capital increases. More specifically, we argue that the coincidence of high US interest rates and net external financial liabilities heightens governments’ incentives to secure access to foreign capital, and therefore results in BIT signings. Empirical evidence is consistent with our theory.